Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Auto (LI.US/2015.HK) and raises the target price to $32.2, indicating a potential upside of 17% [3][10]. Core Insights - Li Auto's growth momentum for 2025 is driven by the launch of new models and expansion of its sales network, with a solid foundation for increased total deliveries this year [10]. - The company is focusing on international market expansion, which is expected to contribute to incremental growth over the next two years [10]. - Li Auto emphasizes the strategic importance of AI investments to ensure long-term competitive advantages [10]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 123.9 billion in 2023 to RMB 259.4 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31% in 2026 [4]. - Gross margin is expected to stabilize around 20.9% by 2027, while net profit is forecasted to increase from a loss of RMB 11.7 billion in 2023 to a profit of RMB 17.5 billion in 2027 [4][11]. - The target price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.7x for 2025, which is considered attractive compared to peers [10]. Performance Review and Adjustments - In Q4 2024, Li Auto's revenue reached RMB 44.3 billion, a 6% year-over-year increase, while net profit was RMB 3.5 billion, down 38% year-over-year [12]. - The company reported a gross margin of 20.3% in Q4 2024, reflecting a decline due to the introduction of new models and cost pressures [12]. - Adjustments to revenue and profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been made, with expected revenues of RMB 176.4 billion and RMB 230.5 billion respectively, reflecting a 12% reduction from previous estimates [14]. Valuation Methodology - The valuation is based on a sum-of-the-parts approach, applying different price-to-earnings ratios for automotive sales and other revenues, leading to a target price of $32.2 for Li Auto [18]. - The report also provides a target price of HKD 132.0 for Li Auto-W (2015.HK), reflecting similar growth expectations [6][18].

1. 在本轮 AI 行情中，港股为何跑赢 A 股？本轮行情的核心逻辑在于全 球资金对中国资产的估值重估。在行情的初始阶段，港股相较于 A 股具 备更大的估值修复空间。且 AI 技术突破的科技核心资产在港股中权重 较高，外资在港股的持仓比例也相对较高，因此港股的受益更加明显。 2. 港股的估值是否有进一步提升的空间？本轮 AI 技术突破引发的估值 修复仅是全球投资者对中国资产价值重估的起点。截至 3 月 12 日，港 股的估值水平仍位于合理水平，恒生指数的前瞻市盈率为 10.3 倍，在过 去 5 年的均值附近，仍有进一步提升的空间。在港股公司维持较高回购 水平的情况下，港股的 ROE 有望持续改善。南向资金在港股的定价权持 续提升，有助于 AH 溢价在中期持续收窄。 3. 外资重新回流到中国市场了吗？我们观察到，全球资金开始再平衡， 资金前期在 A 股和港股配置上的分化出现改变。根据 EPFR，2 月外资重 新净流入中国内地市场，但净流出港股市场，结束了此前 7 个月的连续 净流入。然而，2 月最后一周，中国内地和香港市场均录得外资的净流 入，3 月第一周净流入加速。我们预计接下来外资仍有较大的回流空间。 目前 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Ping An Good Doctor (1833.HK) and lowers the target price to HKD 6.6, indicating a potential downside of 14% from the current price of HKD 7.7 [2][3][7]. Core Insights - The company's revenue growth is expected to recover to a double-digit year-on-year increase of 11% in the second half of 2024, reversing a continuous decline since 2022. However, the adjusted net profit margin has narrowed quarter-on-quarter, failing to sustain previous improvements [2][7]. - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve low double-digit revenue growth, but the potential for profit margin improvement appears limited due to significant expense reductions in 2024 and forward-looking investments in elder care and AI projects [2][7]. - The integration with Ping An Group is anticipated to enhance business synergies, but the extent of additional business growth from this consolidation remains uncertain [2][7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Ping An Good Doctor are as follows (in million RMB): - 2023: 4,674 - 2024: 4,808 (up 2.9% YoY) - 2025E: 5,480 (up 14.0% YoY) - 2026E: 6,253 (up 14.1% YoY) - 2027E: 7,211 (up 15.3% YoY) [3][8]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to turn positive in 2024, reaching RMB 81 million, with further growth to RMB 169 million in 2025 [3][8]. - The company's gross margin is projected to decline slightly from 32.3% in 2023 to 31.1% by 2027 [8]. Market Expectations - The report indicates that the market anticipates a revenue growth rate of 7% for Ping An Good Doctor in the coming years, with a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 3.0 for 2025E [12][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 0.70, indicating a potential upside of 22.8% from the current price of HKD 0.57 [4][8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see a marginal improvement in performance, with a high probability of earnings recovery in 2025. This is supported by a low valuation and an increased dividend yield, which provides significant upside potential compared to downside risks [8]. - The revenue trend is anticipated to reverse starting in the second quarter of 2024, with management expressing confidence in achieving year-on-year revenue growth in the latter half of 2024 [8]. - The operating profit margin for 2025 is projected to improve slightly due to better retail discounts and an increased sales proportion of new products, despite potential challenges from e-commerce growth affecting channel structure [8]. - The company is likely to maintain a high dividend payout ratio in 2025, with an expected dividend yield exceeding 10%, providing a safety net for the stock price [8]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue is forecasted to decline from RMB 20,064 million in 2023 to RMB 18,592 million in 2025, with a year-on-year change of -8% in 2024 and a slight recovery of 1% in 2025 [3][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from RMB 490 million in 2023 to RMB 523 million in 2025, reflecting a significant growth of 450% in 2023, followed by modest growth rates in subsequent years [3][10]. - The price-to-earnings ratio is expected to decrease from 5.6x in 2023 to 4.0x in 2027, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [3][10]. Market Performance - The company's stock has a 52-week price range of HKD 0.48 to HKD 0.69, with a current market capitalization of HKD 3,036 million [4][6]. - The average daily trading volume over the past three months is HKD 0.7 million, suggesting moderate liquidity in the stock [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company HSAI.US, with a target price raised to $20.0, indicating a potential upside of 25% based on a 2025 adjusted price-to-earnings ratio of 48.0x [1][5][10]. Core Insights - The company achieved a significant milestone by recording its first profitable quarter in Q4 2024, with revenue of RMB 720 million, a 28% year-over-year increase, and a gross margin of 39.0% [10][12]. - For 2025, the company expects revenue to reach RMB 30-35 billion, with substantial growth in non-GAAP net profit and GAAP profit projected between RMB 200-350 million [10][12]. - The domestic market for intelligent driving is accelerating, and the company is expanding its overseas customer base, which is expected to support continued growth in ADAS lidar shipments [10][12]. - The company is also seeing rapid growth in its robotics applications, with expectations of nearly 200,000 units shipped in 2025, contributing positively to its gross margin [10][12]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for the company from 2023 to 2027 are as follows: RMB 1,877 million in 2023, RMB 2,077 million in 2024, RMB 3,058 million in 2025, RMB 4,231 million in 2026, and RMB 6,434 million in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [2][11]. - The expected net profit (loss) transitions from a loss of RMB 476 million in 2023 to a profit of RMB 1,054 million by 2027, indicating a significant turnaround [2][11]. - The gross margin is projected to fluctuate slightly, starting at 35.2% in 2023 and expected to be 39.2% by 2027 [2][11]. Valuation - The valuation is based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, with a WACC of 16.8% and a perpetual growth rate of 3.5%, leading to a target price of $20.0 [10][14][15]. - The company’s market capitalization is currently estimated at $2,034 million, with an average trading volume of $51.9 million over the past three months [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company and raises the target price to HKD 217 / USD 56, corresponding to a 12x P/E for 2025E [3][5][26]. Core Insights - The company experienced a strong revenue growth of 13.4% year-on-year in Q4 2024, with total revenue reaching RMB 347 billion, exceeding market expectations by 4% [1]. - The core product categories, particularly digital appliances, saw a robust growth of 15.8% year-on-year, driven by nationwide trade-in policies [1]. - Service revenue also grew by 10.8% year-on-year, with advertising and logistics revenues increasing by 12.7% and 9.5%, respectively [1]. - The company is expected to maintain double-digit growth in product revenue in Q1 2025 due to the expansion of subsidized categories [1]. - Adjusted net profit for Q4 2024 increased by 34% to RMB 11.3 billion, outperforming market expectations, with an adjusted net profit margin of 3.3% [2]. - The company is entering the ride-hailing and food delivery sectors, which may enhance user engagement and purchase frequency, although increased subsidy investments could introduce uncertainty regarding overall profit margin improvements [2]. Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from RMB 1,084.66 billion in FY23 to RMB 1,250.05 billion in FY25E, reflecting a growth rate of 15.3% [4][6]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to rise from RMB 35.2 billion in FY23 to RMB 51.09 billion in FY25E, indicating a growth rate of 45.1% [4][6]. - The adjusted net profit margin is anticipated to stabilize around 4.1% for the full year, with medium to long-term targets relying on scale efficiencies and product mix optimization [2][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Transsion Holdings with a target price of RMB 114.2, indicating a potential upside of 16.9% from the current price of RMB 97.7 [3][5][9]. Core Insights - Transsion Holdings has shown a positive quarter-over-quarter improvement in revenue and profit for Q4 2024, laying a solid foundation for growth in 2025. The company ranks fourth globally in smartphone shipments with a market share of 8.7% [9][12]. - The growth drivers for 2025 include strong smartphone shipment growth, expansion in digital accessories and energy storage products, and accelerated growth in mobile internet services benefiting from operational leverage [9][12]. - The DCF valuation method estimates a target price of RMB 114.2, with assumptions of a 1.8% risk-free rate and a WACC of 6.1% [15][17]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Transsion Holdings are as follows: - 2023: RMB 62,295 million - 2024E: RMB 68,743 million - 2025E: RMB 78,105 million - 2026E: RMB 89,470 million - 2027E: RMB 100,537 million - The expected revenue growth rates are 34% for 2023, 10% for 2024E, and 14% for 2025E [4][10]. - Net profit projections are: - 2023: RMB 5,537 million - 2024E: RMB 5,590 million - 2025E: RMB 6,080 million - 2026E: RMB 7,363 million - 2027E: RMB 8,511 million - The net profit growth rates are 123% for 2023, 1% for 2024E, and 9% for 2025E [4][10]. Q4 2024 Performance - For Q4 2024, Transsion's revenue is expected to reach RMB 17,491 million, a 9% year-over-year decline but a 5% quarter-over-quarter increase. Net profit is projected at RMB 1,687 million, reflecting a 2% year-over-year increase and a 60% quarter-over-quarter increase [13][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for major US internet giants, with a preference order of Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google [3]. Core Insights - The cloud business growth has slowed down, with major players like Amazon AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud showing year-over-year revenue growth rates of 19%, 31%, and 30% respectively, which are below market expectations [1][2]. - Despite the slowdown in cloud growth, major internet companies are increasing capital expenditures for AI infrastructure in 2025, with Amazon planning to invest $105 billion (+34% YoY), Google $75 billion (+43% YoY), Meta $60-65 billion (+59% YoY), and Microsoft $80 billion (+44% YoY) [2]. - DeepSeek's cost innovation is shifting the AI industry focus from "computing power competition" to "algorithm optimization," which may lead to increased cloud service demand in the long term [2]. Summary by Sections Cloud Business Performance - Major US internet companies reported weaker-than-expected cloud business growth, with revenue growth rates for Q4 2024 showing no acceleration despite significant capital investments [1][2]. Capital Expenditure Plans - In 2025, major internet companies are set to increase capital expenditures significantly for AI infrastructure, indicating a strong commitment to AI despite current cloud growth challenges [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report expresses optimism about the long-term opportunities presented by the deep AI investments of major US internet companies, maintaining a "Buy" rating and highlighting the potential benefits for Meta and Microsoft due to reduced computing costs from DeepSeek [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qualcomm (QCOM.US) with a target price of $205.7, indicating a potential upside of 17% from the current price of $175.9 [1][5]. Core Insights - Qualcomm's FY1Q25 performance exceeded market expectations, driven by strong growth in its mobile, automotive, and IoT segments. The company is expected to benefit from the rapid penetration of edge AI in smartphones, which could enhance its valuation [1][2]. - The report slightly raises the earnings forecasts for FY2025 and FY2026, reflecting positive trends in smartphone sales, particularly high-end models, and the anticipated growth in smart cockpit and integrated driving solutions [1][3]. Financial Performance Summary - FY1Q25 revenue reached $11.67 billion, a 17% year-over-year increase and a 14% quarter-over-quarter increase, surpassing the upper limit of guidance [2][11]. - The QCT segment generated $10.1 billion in revenue, marking a historical high, primarily due to better-than-expected performance in Android smartphones, IoT, and automotive sectors [2]. - Gross margin for FY1Q25 was 55.8%, down 0.8 percentage points year-over-year and 0.6 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [2][11]. - Net profit for FY1Q25 grew by 15% year-over-year and 9% quarter-over-quarter, also exceeding market expectations [2]. Earnings Forecasts - The report provides the following revenue and net profit forecasts for Qualcomm: - FY2025E Revenue: $44.1 billion, a 13% increase year-over-year - FY2025E Net Profit: $11.1 billion, a 9% increase year-over-year [4][9]. - The projected PE ratio for FY2025 is 20.4x, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical averages [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the Chinese government's smartphone subsidy policy is expected to boost sales, particularly for high-end flagship models, providing a solid foundation for Qualcomm's FY2025 performance [1][3]. - The company anticipates that its automotive business will reach $8 billion in revenue by FY2029, with a target market share of 12% in Windows PCs [3].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the industry, but it provides individual stock ratings for various companies within the consumer sector, indicating a mix of "Buy," "Hold," and "Sell" recommendations [20]. Core Insights - The report discusses the impact of the US-China trade war on Chinese consumer goods companies, highlighting the increased costs due to a 10% tariff on exports to the US, which could lead to reduced competitiveness and market demand for Chinese products [1][8]. - It emphasizes the need for companies to adjust their supply chains, suggesting that relocating production to Southeast Asia or other regions is a primary strategy to mitigate tariff impacts [2][11]. - The report suggests that companies should focus on reducing their export proportion to the US and instead target markets with lower tariff risks, such as Japan, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Europe [3][13]. - It notes that the trade war may compel companies to enhance product innovation and brand building to maintain competitiveness, as low-price strategies may no longer be viable [6][17]. - The potential for rising raw material costs due to retaliatory tariffs is also discussed, urging companies to secure local supply chains to minimize risks [18]. Summary by Sections Impact of Tariffs - The report outlines that the 10% tariff on Chinese goods will increase export costs, affecting major consumer categories like electronics, appliances, clothing, and toys [1][8]. Supply Chain Adjustments - Companies are encouraged to shift production to Southeast Asia to avoid tariffs, with examples like Pop Mart and OEM firms such as Shenzhou International and Yue Yuen already implementing such strategies [2][12]. Market Focus Shift - It is recommended that companies reduce their reliance on the US market and explore other international markets that present lower risks [3][13]. Innovation and Branding - The report highlights the necessity for companies to innovate and strengthen their brands to justify higher prices, as the trade war diminishes the effectiveness of low-cost strategies [6][17]. Raw Material Costs - The potential for increased raw material costs due to retaliatory tariffs is noted, with a recommendation for companies to secure local sourcing to mitigate these risks [18].