Key Points Industry/Company Involved - **Company**: Jinbo Stock Co., Ltd. - **Industry**: Solid-state battery technology, carbon materials, and thermal field solutions for photovoltaic and lithium battery industries. Core Views and Arguments - **Silicon Carbon Silicon-based Products**: - Company has accumulated experience in silicon oxide and silicon carbon through its participation in Jin Si Technology. - Currently, the company is focusing on the development of porous carbon and silicon alkane, with pilot production and capacity expansion underway. - The company has invested in 3600 tons of porous carbon capacity and has预留 3600 tons for future expansion. - [2] - **Silicon Oxide**: - The company is one of the largest suppliers of silicon oxide precursors to Bettery. - The company's silicon oxide products have advantages in cost and performance compared to competitors. - The company plans to double its silicon oxide capacity next year. - [3] - **Silicon Carbon**: - The company is focusing on the development of porous carbon for silicon carbon, with three major systems: petroleum coke-based, asphalt-based, and resin-based. - The company has advantages in porous carbon compared to other manufacturers. - The company plans to disclose detailed plans for capacity and customers at a later stage. - [4] - **Porous Carbon**: - The company plans to balance the development of porous carbon in petroleum coke, asphalt, and resin, with a focus on asphalt-based due to its performance and cost advantages. - The company plans to increase its porous carbon capacity to 7000-7200 tons. - [5][8] - **Carbon Ceramic Brake Discs**: - The company's carbon ceramic brake disc business has attracted interest from many car manufacturers, including BYD, Xiaomi, Xpeng, and GAC Aion. - The company is also exploring the European and American markets. - [9] - **Traditional Business**: - The company's traditional photovoltaic thermal field business will account for less than 1/3 of the group's business in the future. - The lithium battery thermal field business and carbon ceramic brake disc business are expected to account for more than 1/3. - [10] - **Research and Development**: - The company is continuously investing in research and development, including high thermal conductivity carbon, high electrical conductivity carbon, and other research. - [11] - **Silicon-based Anode and Porous Carbon in Solid-state Batteries**: - The company believes that silicon carbon anodes will experience explosive growth when the cost is reduced to a certain degree. - The company expects the application of silicon carbon anodes in solid-state batteries to be realized in the next 1-2 years. - [15] Other Important Content - The company is actively seeking partnerships with battery manufacturers for testing and verification of its products. - The company is planning to expand its market share in the European and American markets. - The company is continuously improving its products and technologies to maintain its competitive advantage in the market. - [6][7][12][16][17]

风起半导体设备，吹向何处 20241118 摘要 • 半导体设备板块近期显著上涨，主要源于整体市场上行趋势及国产化自主 可控的双重利好，2024 年行业销售额增长印证了周期复苏态势。 • 设计类公司涨幅不及设备类公司，主要因为地缘政治及产业政策导致市场 更关注国产化进程，半导体设备作为核心装备，国产化提升带来的成长性 更显著。 • 半导体行业不同环节受地缘政治、政策及经济周期等因素影响，例如 2022 年美国制裁导致短期回调，而 2023 年以来国产化预期高涨。 • 中国半导体产业发展主要逻辑为行业周期复苏和自主可控进程加速，两者 在不同时期交替或共同作用，影响各细分领域发展。 • 2024 年 9 月 24 日以来半导体板块强劲上涨，除原有周期复苏和国产化逻 辑外，美国大选等外部因素加剧了国产化影响力。 • 全球半导体行业受周期性因素和国产化进程双重影响，AI 等新兴需求推 动行业上行，而美国政策变化加速了国内国产化进程。 • 2023 年前三季度，全球半导体销售额同比环比增长，但国内指数未完全 反映复苏，AI 相关领域及半导体设备板块表现突出，后者主要受益于订 单转化和国产化进程。 Q&A 9 月 24 ...

风光板块更新：光伏下调出口退税率，海风项目密集启动 20241117 摘要 • 光伏出口退税率下调至 9%，短期内或影响企业报表，但中国光伏产业全 球竞争力强，头部企业受影响较小，市占率有望提升。 • 国内光伏组件报价有望维持在每瓦 0.68 元以上，对股价形成支撑；海外 市场需求疲软，但价格上涨可能引发补库周期，利好市场表现。 • 光伏产业链库存去化加速，电池片、硅片库存下降，预计未来一到两个月 降至合理水平，价格弹性较大，可能呈现自下而上的增长趋势。 • 光伏玻璃冷修加速，供给侧下降，支撑价格上涨；新技术升级，如隆基股 份 HPC2.0、金科突发 3.0，提升行业竞争力。 • 异质结组件盈利水平较好，是高效组件技术布局的重要方向；中电线启动 3GW 异质结组件招采计划，体现市场认可度。 • 海上风电项目进展迅速，多个项目明确开工时间，2025-2026 年建设节奏 加快，装机增速有望达到 50%。 • 福建等沿海省份加速推进海上风电建设，核准但未招标项目约 22GW，未 来几年将陆续建设，国内外市场增速均可观。 Q&A 光伏产业近期有哪些政策变化？这些政策对行业有何影响？ 11 月 15 日，财政部和税务 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on the Photovoltaic Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the photovoltaic (PV) industry, specifically discussing the recent adjustments in export tax rebates for PV products by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration of China, which have been reduced from 13% to 9% effective December 1, 2024 [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - The reduction in export tax rebates is expected to impact component prices by approximately 2-3 cents per watt, which may lead to renegotiation of existing overseas orders [2]. - The supply-side reform in the PV industry aims to eliminate outdated production capacity, promote price recovery across the industry chain, and enhance profitability, ultimately achieving cost reduction and efficiency improvements [1][3]. - Companies with significant market or technological advantages are likely to benefit the most from the tax rebate adjustment, as they can command higher premiums when prices increase [4]. - The industry is currently experiencing losses, which is detrimental to sustainable development. Regulatory bodies are pushing for market-driven elimination of outdated capacity to ensure profitability across all segments [3]. - Feedback from leading PV companies indicates that the current component price of 0.68 yuan per watt is seen as a floor price, with expectations that prices will not fall below this level [5]. Additional Important Content - Future policies are anticipated to further bolster confidence in the sector and support price recovery, with expectations of production increases post-March 2024 [6][7]. - The development of the PV sector is viewed in two phases: the first phase involves valuation increases driven by supply-side reforms, while the second phase will see fundamental improvements as prices recover [8]. - New technologies, such as BC (cost reduction and efficiency improvement), are expected to play a crucial role in the industry's growth and will be a catalyst for ongoing development [9][10]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies benefiting from new technologies (e.g., Longi, Anxu, Yubang Aggregates, and Yijiemai), as well as silicon material and battery component firms (e.g., Tongwei, Junda) and auxiliary material companies (e.g., Flat Glass, Foster) [11].

锂电表现亮眼，能持续吗 20241118 摘要 • 锂矿指数近期表现优于大盘，但波动较大，上周小幅上涨 0.01%，而同期 上证指数下跌 3.52%。 • 中证新能源指数市盈率为 40.31 倍，处于历史分位点 54.81%，估值相对 较低，但近期市场波动剧烈，影响新能源、科技及大盘。 • 10 月经济数据及部分利好政策出台后，市场情绪趋于平淡，导致市场波 动加剧，未来一个月缺乏重大刺激因素，高波动和快速轮动将持续。 • 截至 11 月 15 日，中证 500 和沪深 300 估值处于历史平均水平，而科创 50 估值偏高；宽基指数显示一定抗跌性，但受整体市场情绪影响。 • 新能源板块中长期发展前景向好，但短期存在不确定性，需关注 12 月重 要会议及政策方向，以及碳酸锂价格反转和储能需求增长。 • 军工板块中长期景气度较高，但短期波动较大，建议关注相对均衡的资产 配置，如中证 500 和沪深 300 指数量化增强产品。 • 近期新能源板块回调，但整体优于市场平均水平，2025 年储能需求增长 将带动上下游需求，建议关注优秀公司并合理配置资产。 Q&A 近期锂电板块表现相对较好，是否能够持续？其背后的原因是什么 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Solid-State Lithium Battery Technology Company Overview - The company specializes in the synthesis of high-purity aluminum sulfide using a chemical bath deposition (CBD) method, which simplifies reaction steps and reduces costs while enhancing product purity and yield [2][3][4]. Key Industry Insights - The company has achieved a pilot production line capable of synthesizing high-purity aluminum sulfide in quantities ranging from 10 kilograms to hundreds of kilograms, with a high yield [2][5]. - The company aims to achieve mass production by 2026 and start vehicle integration by 2027, with strong demand from clients such as Sony, Nissan, and BYD [2][12][11]. - The company has developed NL structural materials that enhance stability and capacity, potentially disrupting the existing ternary lithium cobalt oxide system by reducing costs and improving energy density [2][14][15]. Core Points and Arguments - The CBD method is highlighted for its efficiency, avoiding toxic gas emissions and simplifying the production process compared to traditional methods [8][9]. - The company has a competitive edge in smelting processes, converting common raw materials into high-activity intermediates, and has advanced equipment for large-scale production [4][6]. - The choice of solid sulfur salts as a sulfur source enhances safety and environmental sustainability [2][7]. - The NL structural materials have been patented, ensuring a competitive advantage in the market [20]. Production and Cost Considerations - Current production capacity is between 10 to 20 tons per month, with plans to scale up to 2000 tons by October next year, aiming for a total output of 20,000 to 30,000 tons [22]. - The target production cost is between 200,000 to 300,000, with ongoing improvements needed in process optimization and scaling [6][19]. - The company is focused on reducing processing costs while maintaining high-quality output [23]. Market and Client Engagement - The company has established long-term collaborations with major Japanese and domestic companies, with ongoing material testing and interest in high-purity aluminum sulfide [11][21]. - The initial application of products will be in consumer electronics rather than directly in the automotive sector due to cost considerations [24]. Future Outlook - The company is positioned to lead in the solid-state battery market with innovative materials and established partnerships, while also exploring downstream applications in lithium sulfide electrolytes [10][12]. - The NL materials are expected to significantly enhance energy density and performance in future battery technologies, including solid-state and lithium-rich manganese structures [16][17][18].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the Chinese economy, particularly focusing on the impact of the 10 trillion yuan debt relief policy and the implications of the U.S. presidential election on the market. Core Points and Arguments 1. **10 Trillion Yuan Debt Relief Policy**: - The policy aims to alleviate China's economic debt burden and is crucial for economic recovery, but there are concerns about whether it will lead to a new round of leverage [1][2][7] 2. **Impact of U.S. Presidential Election**: - The outcome of the U.S. election, particularly a Trump victory, could exacerbate trade tensions and negatively affect global liquidity, disrupting the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1][2][5] 3. **Current Liquidity Conditions**: - Domestic liquidity is relatively loose, while international liquidity is uncertain due to the Federal Reserve's policies and geopolitical factors [1][5] 4. **Economic Policy Shift**: - China's economic policy has shifted towards actively addressing deflation, providing more room for economic maneuvering, but there are risks associated with increased leverage post-debt relief [1][6][7] 5. **Investor Sentiment**: - Investors are advised to remain rational and avoid emotional trading, focusing on long-term sustainable frameworks rather than short-term gains [1][9][12] 6. **Investment Directions**: - Key investment areas include high-dividend assets, quality leading assets (especially core Chinese assets), and sectors benefiting from the transformation of local government roles [1][13][14] 7. **A500 Index**: - The CSI A500 Index is highlighted for its balanced industry distribution and coverage of emerging industry leaders, showing better long-term performance compared to conventional indices [1][21][22] 8. **Market Dynamics**: - The current market is experiencing a phase of adjustment, with investors feeling uncertain. However, there is still strong support in the market, indicating potential for recovery [12][29] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Leverage Capabilities**: - Entities capable of leveraging include the central government and financially healthy companies, which are crucial for future economic confidence [8] 2. **Sector Focus**: - Investors are encouraged to focus on the technology sector, particularly digital economy and artificial intelligence, as these areas are expected to drive long-term capital market growth [16][17] 3. **Investment Strategy**: - A balanced investment portfolio is recommended, combining high-dividend stocks with growth sectors like AI to achieve stability and potential high returns [19] 4. **Market Adjustments**: - The A500 Index undergoes adjustments every six months to reflect market changes and emerging industry dynamics [26] 5. **Information Access**: - Investors can access information about A500 products through official channels like the Huaxia Fund app or customer service [31]

美元势头放缓，哪些品种先反弹 20241118 摘要 • 美元指数高位运行，但存在技术性回调需求，这将导致以美元计价的大宗 商品，如黄金、白银、铜等短期内出现反弹。 • 近期跌幅较大的品种主要包括原木、高硫液化气、原油及其相关化工产品、 玻璃和部分中小盘股，而涨幅居前的品种则包括欧线、铁矿石、胶合板等。 • 政府调整进出口关税，取消部分商品的出口退税，例如铝材、铜材等，这 将抑制相关商品的出口，并对价格造成负面影响，碳酸锂价格也因此下跌。 • 铁矿石近期反弹幅度超过螺纹钢，这表明其反弹并非完全依赖于房地产市 场复苏，而原油和大豆市场基本面较弱，反弹乏力。 • 美元强势可能持续至年底，这将持续压制大宗商品市场，即使美元强势有 所放缓，大宗商品反弹也仅为短期现象。 • 碳酸锂价格在经历上涨后回调，目前处于相对低位区间震荡，投资者可择 机低位做多，但需关注回调风险及供需变化。 • 氧化铝市场处于高位震荡，上行空间有限，建议 01 合约低点买入，05 合 约考虑反弹做空；螺纹钢市场震荡下行，玻璃市场低位反弹，但整体趋势 不明朗。 Q&A 当前美元指数的走势对大宗商品市场有哪些影响？ 目前美元指数已走到相对高位，存在技 ...

锂矿强 call！凿冰人破冰！供给梳理一澳洲篇 20241118 摘要 • 2024 年澳洲锂辉石市场供给增量有限，预计仅增长 1.7 万吨至 43.4 万吨 碳酸锂当量，主要增量来自格林布什、毫乱和凯瑟琳三个项目，而其他项 目因成本控制而减产。 • 澳洲锂资源供应份额持续下降，预计 2025 年将降至全球供应量的 30%， 南美和非洲地区的增产是主要原因。 • 格林布什矿山保持稳定生产，但由于一季度天齐锂业减少采购，2024 年 产量预计仅为 16.9 万吨碳酸锂当量，2025 年随着 CPP 三期投产略增至 20 万吨。 • 马里昂镇矿山明年产量预计下降至 4 万吨碳酸锂当量，其他项目如卡特项 目、达尔文项目等也面临减产或停产压力，主要原因是高昂的运营成本。 • 南美和非洲地区锂资源供应快速增长，加剧了全球市场竞争，导致部分高 成本项目面临挑战，澳洲锂矿企业需调整策略应对。 • 多个澳洲锂矿项目存在减产或停产风险，例如卡特项目、我军纳区项目、 后续项目以及分类项目，这些项目面临高成本和盈利压力。 • 凯瑟琳项目虽然新增产能，但面临高昂的生产成本（每吨 1,100-1,200 澳元）和潜在的出售风险，其未来 ...

Key Takeaways Industry/Company Involved * **Global Asset Allocation**: The document primarily focuses on global asset allocation strategies, with specific emphasis on the Chinese and US markets. Core Views and Arguments * **2025 Asset Allocation**: The document suggests a shift towards a neutral balanced approach in 2025, increasing exposure to risk assets and decreasing exposure to safe assets compared to the defensive strategy adopted in the second half of 2024. [1] * **US and China Stock-Bond Correlation**: The correlation between stocks and bonds in the US and China has reversed, with China experiencing a negative correlation and the US a positive one. This reflects the different drivers of economic growth and inflation in the two countries. [1] * **Stock Volatility**: China's stock volatility is expected to decline in the long term due to low interest rates, deleveraging, increased institutional investor participation, and capital market reforms. Conversely, US stock volatility may rise. [3] * **Asset Correlation**: The correlation between Chinese and foreign assets has decreased, providing global investors with more diversification opportunities and enhancing risk-adjusted returns. [4] * **Stock Allocation**: Based on the changes in stock-bond correlation and volatility, the document recommends increasing the allocation of Chinese stocks in the portfolio, for example, from 60% to 70%. [5] * **US Market Challenges**: The positive correlation between stocks and bonds in the US makes asset allocation more difficult, necessitating increased allocation to non-stock-bond assets like gold. [10] * **China Market Opportunities**: The negative correlation between stocks and bonds in China facilitates effective asset allocation and balanced stock-bond positioning. [10] * **Trump's Impact**: Trump's election and policies have had a significant impact on the global economy, benefiting risk assets in the short term but posing risks of inflation and economic slowdown. [12] Other Important Points * **Trend Analysis**: The document identifies three major trends affecting asset allocation: the reversal of stock-bond correlation, changes in volatility, and the decrease in asset correlation. [3][4] * **Volatility Drivers**: The expected decline in Chinese stock volatility is attributed to low interest rates, deleveraging, increased institutional investor participation, and capital market reforms. [6] * **Asset Correlation Implications**: The decrease in asset correlation provides better diversification opportunities for global investors and enhances risk-adjusted returns. [7] * **Asset Allocation Implications**: The document provides insights into asset allocation based on the current market trends, suggesting an increase in Chinese stock allocation and a cautious approach to US markets. [8][10] * **Risk Management**: The document emphasizes the importance of risk management and flexibility in adjusting investment portfolios in response to policy changes and potential uncertainties. [12][24]