Prices may vary in areas outside metABCD ropolitan Washington. ESu V1 V2 V3 V4 Democracy Dies in Darkness monday, november 18, 2024 . Partly sunny 71/50 • Tomorrow: Partly sunny 65/52 B6 $3 PhoToS by ilan godfrey for The WaShingTon PoST community members from kanyelele town, zambia, swim on the banks of the lake created by the kariba Dam. Zambia's green energy is running dry Hydropower had long provided cheap, clean power — until drought set in For a while, it looked like Zambia had achieved a status that a ...

'Are you opposed to contraception?' Simon Hattenstone 18 November 2024 From £2.30 for subscribers grills Jacob Rees-Mogg Why we are all so tired And more sleep doesn't help > G2 Thames Water repairs crisis leaves supply 'on knife-edge' Biden lifts ban on use of US arms in Russia Exclusive Anna Isaac Thames Water has £23bn of assets in urgent need of repair and the supply of water to its 16 million customers is "on a knife-edge", a Guardian inves- tigation can reveal. Britain's biggest water company has fail ...

特别报道: 产业链"特朗普效应" 10万亿化债计划落地 50 36 同业存款套利何解 微短剧乘风破浪 44 62 电动自行车国标再修订 显影: 在塔克拉玛干沙漠守水井 70 76 掘金中非 中国矿业企业规模化投资"非洲心脏" 在夹缝中操练"出海"商业样本 P:18 财新观察｜抓住⽴法契机 深化能源市场化改⾰ CAIXIN| 听⽂章 历时18年，能源法⽴法终得告竣。11⽉8⽇，第⼗四届全国⼈⼤常委 会第⼗⼆次会议表决通过《中华⼈⺠共和国能源法》。该法⾃2025 年1⽉1⽇起施⾏。此前，煤炭法、电⼒法、节约能源法、可再⽣能源 法和⽯油天然⽓管道保护法等单⾏法已经颁⾏。作为基础性、统领性 的法律，此次能源法通过，不仅进⼀步补充完善了该领域的法律体 系，更重要的是为能源安全、转型和发展提供了坚实的法律保障，促 进⾼质量发展。 这部法律内容⼗分丰富。其对能源市场相当重视，令⼈印象深刻。总 则部分便明确提出，国家加快建⽴主体多元、统⼀开放、竞争有序、 监管有效的能源市场体系，依法规范能源市场秩序，平等保护能源市 场各类主体的合法权益。它将能源市场体系列为专章，并在该章开 ⾸明确规定：国家推动能源领域⾃然垄断环节独⽴运营和 ...

我们今天的周会当然我们取了个题目叫轨迹改变其实指市场在过去一段时间以题材炒作甚至是低位资产的反复博弈的运行轨迹恐怕要开始慢慢的变化了当然他不是说一个突变 但因为有一些迹象呢我们已经看到了他有一些市场层面的信号也有一些基本面的信号我们一个一个看第一个呢就是游资力量现在恐怕是在趋弱了已经呈现这样的一个信号了且和历史上这个过程呈现一定的 呃一致的特征什么意思呢啊我们来看一下啊首先呢就是我们都都知道小市值高估值啊低价股业绩季亏股在过去一段时间的呃表现是很好的对吧那那确实呢就是在上周开始啊这个呢基本上就出现了一个明显的呃反转那同时呢上证507权的隐含波动率呢也开始回落了就之前大家特别怕踏空 往上的风险现在呢这个也回落下来了同时呢就是单位换手率带动的涨幅啊也现在处在了一个相对的低位啊其实呢就是市场开始呈现这样一个就是成交量还很高啊但是呢相对来讲已经有点涨不动的可能之前我们用过单位换手 率带来的政府无论是很高就是上涨或下跌都很厉害一般市场见底了对吧那现在呢处在一个高换手但却有点涨不动的这样的一个过程中那在这个过程中呢我们看到市场的信号呢我们测算啊现在北上资金只能用测算的方式了啊感兴趣的可以找我们团队美凯 主要的我们的这个方 ...

一块呢是由我这边来跟大家再更新一下市场的一些最新的情况因为这周市场调整的幅度是相对比较大的然后第二呢再跟咱们个人岛再这个汇报汇报关于并购重组这个事情因为公开新闻咱们也看到啊包括深圳市也要推出这个进一步加快和鼓励这个并购重组的一些政策所以第二部分由我的同事许杨真然后来跟大家汇报一下关于并购重组的一些这个复盘还有包括后续一些展望 大概今天是这两部分内容第一部分我们先来看一下这个目前市场这里面我们画了一个表格表示这个这个表格的话是我们统计的在过往这个比较重要的六轮牛市里面万得权益指数就代表A股整体万得权益指数跌破20均线的一些情况的统计因为我们看到周五收盘的时候万得权益指数基本就是稍微跌破了一点点或者跌在了这个20均线上面 整体上我们复排下来这个六轮的所谓的牛市里面跌破20均线的这种情况还是相对比较多的第一轮有12次跌破20均线第二轮是24次这样一次类推最后总体下来我们统计的样本应该是有接近100次99次就过往六轮牛市的话有99次出现在牛市波动当中的阶段性的跌破20均线的这样的情况其实还是样本量比较大的还是足够多的那我们可以看一下具体的表现做一些简单的 因为跌破20均线就是代表目前的价格比过去一个月的均价要低嘛,对 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Trump's Economic Impact Industry or Company Involved - The conference call focuses on the economic impact of Donald Trump's election victory, analyzing its implications for various industries and the overall economy. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Trade Challenges**: The call emphasizes that Trump's administration will face significant trade challenges, particularly regarding re-export trade, which may be adversely affected compared to the previous administration. This could lead to a less optimistic outlook for exports [2][3][4]. 2. **Policy Shifts**: There is a belief that the current economic policies are shifting from a stable approach to one that prioritizes economic growth and development, influenced by external pressures from the U.S. [4][5]. 3. **Monetary Policy Influence**: The Federal Reserve's actions, particularly a significant rate cut, are expected to impact domestic policies and economic responses to Trump's administration [4][6]. 4. **Expectations for Domestic Policy**: The expectation is that domestic policies will become more aggressive in response to external pressures, with a focus on stabilizing growth and increasing domestic demand [5][6]. 5. **Currency Stability**: The stability of the Chinese Yuan is crucial; significant depreciation could hinder the ability to implement loose monetary policies [6][7]. 6. **Impact of Tariffs**: Trump's potential use of tariffs as a negotiation tool is highlighted, indicating that exports will face pressure regardless of the specific tariff rates [7][8]. 7. **Fiscal Policy Adjustments**: Recent adjustments to export tax rebates reflect a shift in policy focus from external to internal demand, indicating a move towards supporting domestic consumption rather than just exports [9][10][11]. 8. **Long-term Economic Outlook**: The anticipated increase in fiscal spending is expected to support domestic consumption, leading to a gradual economic recovery rather than a sharp rebound [12][15]. 9. **Market Expectations**: The overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic regarding the capital markets, with expectations of a gradual improvement in equity markets driven by domestic consumption [15][16]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Adjustment of Export Rebates**: The reduction and cancellation of export tax rebates for certain commodities signal a response to international trade pressures and a shift towards a more competitive market environment [9][10]. 2. **Potential for Structural Changes**: The call suggests that the changes in fiscal policy could lead to a structural shift in the economy, moving from an investment-driven model to one focused on consumption [12][14]. 3. **Cautious Optimism for 2024**: There is an expectation of a more favorable environment for domestic policies and market conditions in 2024, contingent on the stability of the Yuan and external economic pressures [8][16]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call regarding the economic implications of Trump's presidency, focusing on trade, policy shifts, and market expectations.

15 Nov 2024 05:46:58 ET │ 13 pages China Economics A GDP Upgrade but No Signs of Relief for the Medium-Term CITI'S TAKE Overall activity momentum stabilized in October. Retail sales beat on an earlier and longer "Double 11", compounded by trade-in policies. Exports potentially benefited from front-loaded shipments amid potential US tariffs. Property sales recovered, yet investment remained low, with nonproperty investment only offsetting the property weakness. We upgrade our GDP growth forecast for 2024E to ...

14 Nov 2024 09:32:57 ET │ 10 pages China Materials 2024 On-ground Demand Monitor Series #136 – Aluminum Inventory and Consumption CITI'S TAKE In this series of notes, we aim to track and analyze high-frequency onground demand trends in China – market expectation on demand recovery has been largely cautious. In this note, we enclose weekly data from Mysteel, a consultant, on China aluminum ingot and billet production, inventory, and apparent consumption data during the week of 7th to 13th Nov. We shift our n ...

Summary of the Conference Call on China Auto Manufacturers Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Auto Manufacturers** industry, specifically the performance of imported vehicle sales in October 2024 and the year-to-date figures for 2024. Key Points 1. **Imported Vehicle Sales Performance** - October 2024 retail sales of imported vehicles decreased by **20% YoY** and **7% MoM**, totaling **48.5k units** sold. - Year-to-date (10M24) imported car retail sales were down **14% YoY**, amounting to **531.0k units** sold. [1][2][7] 2. **Brand-Specific Sales Data** - **Mercedes-Benz**: Sold **10,724 units** in October 2024, down **5% YoY** and **10% MoM**. Year-to-date sales decreased by **18%** to **105,204 units**. - **BMW**: Sales fell **36% YoY** to **4,990 units** in October, with a **18%** decline in year-to-date sales. - **Porsche**: Experienced a **32% YoY** drop, selling **3,618 units** in October, and a **33%** decline year-to-date. - **Audi**: Sales decreased by **29% YoY** to **3,412 units** in October, with a **15%** decline year-to-date. - **Land Rover**: Notably down **89% YoY** in October, selling **3,531 units**. - **Toyota**: Sales decreased by **27% YoY** to **2,333 units** in October, but year-to-date sales increased by **8%**. - **Other Brands**: Significant declines were noted across various brands, with total import passenger vehicle sales down **20% YoY** in October. [2][7] 3. **Investment Ratings** - **ZSG (0881.HK)**: Target price raised to **HK$23.25** based on a **6x 2026E P/E** multiple, reflecting sector downcycle and earnings improvement trajectory. - **Yongda (3669.HK)**: Target price set at **HK$2.98**, with a projected **8% dividend yield** for 2024. - **Meidong Auto (1268.HK)**: Target price of **HK$2.40**, with a focus on cash flow and healthy inventory management. [9][12][13] 4. **Risks Identified** - **Macroeconomic Weakness**: A weak macro environment could reduce consumer purchasing power, especially in lower-tier cities. - **Revenue and Margin Risks**: Lower-than-expected revenues and gross profit margins in the passenger vehicle and after-sales businesses could impact performance. - **Intensified Competition**: Increased competition may pressure profitability. - **Sales and Earnings Risks**: Risks associated with actual sales and earnings performance, particularly if a post-pandemic rebound does not occur as anticipated. [10][11][14] 5. **Analyst Insights** - Analysts express caution regarding the overall market conditions and the potential for continued declines in sales across various brands. The focus remains on identifying companies with strong management and prudent expansion strategies to navigate the current downcycle. [4][10][11] Additional Important Information - The report includes detailed sales figures by brand and highlights the significant declines in the luxury vehicle segment. - Analysts emphasize the importance of monitoring macroeconomic indicators and consumer sentiment as key factors influencing the auto industry in China. - The report also discusses the potential for dealer consolidation in the medium term, which could impact market dynamics. [1][2][9][10]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The report focuses on the macroeconomic outlook for three trade-oriented economies: Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam, highlighting their export performance and domestic demand dynamics in 2024 and expectations for 2025 [2][5][8]. Key Points Export Performance - Exports from Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam outperformed expectations in 2024, with Vietnam leading the performance for the first nine months [5][8]. - Robust exports have supported overall economic growth above potential despite tight monetary and credit policies [5][8]. - In 2025, growth is expected to slow significantly in Korea and Taiwan, while Vietnam's growth is projected to rise moderately [2][8]. - A broad moderation in exports is anticipated due to weak demand from mainland China and uncertainties surrounding US trade policy [2][8]. - The report notes a significant reduction in export exposure to China for these economies, attributed to localization of supply chains and US tariffs [2][8][9]. Domestic Demand Dynamics - Domestic demand is expected to diverge among the three economies: sustained strength in Vietnam, recovery in Korea, and moderation in Taiwan [20][23]. - In Korea, consumption is projected to recover slowly due to declines in borrowing costs and a moderate fiscal stance, while investment is unlikely to see significant growth due to uncertainties in US trade policy [20][23]. - Taiwan is expected to experience double-digit increases in equipment investment driven by strong AI-related demand, despite a slowdown in private consumption growth [20][23]. - Vietnam's labor market is normalizing post-pandemic, with job growth returning to pre-pandemic levels and wages rising around 8% [23][24]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation in Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam is expected to moderate in line with targets due to stabilizing commodity prices and weak global demand [28][31]. - The Bank of Korea (BOK) is expected to gradually cut the policy rate to 2.25% by late 2025, reflecting slow growth and reduced risks of housing market overheating [35][39]. - Taiwan's monetary policy is expected to ease moderately, while Vietnam's credit policy may become less restrictive as financial stability improves [36][39]. Risks and Opportunities - Main risks include potential growth downturns from a broader trade war and deflationary pressures from China's excess capacity [41][43]. - Upside risks could arise from trade reallocation away from China, benefiting Vietnam's labor-intensive goods and Taiwan and Korea's capital-intensive goods [41][43]. Economic Projections - GDP growth forecasts for 2025: Korea at 1.8%, Taiwan at 2.6%, and Vietnam at 6.4% [44]. - Headline CPI inflation projections for 2025: Korea at 1.6%, Taiwan at 1.3%, and Vietnam at 3.3% [44]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of considering external factors, such as US trade policy and China's economic performance, in assessing the outlook for these economies [2][41]. - The analysis highlights the shifting trade dynamics and the increasing importance of the US as a market for these economies, particularly in value-added terms [13][17].