本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 8 January 2025 | 4:24PM HKT China Education 2025 Kickoff: More reasonable valuations, still-robust growth outlook; Buy EDU/TAL We are constructive about the Big Two in the China Education sector, EDU and TAL, into 2025, after a relatively disappointing share price performance in 2024 (EDU -12%/TAL -22%, lagging KWEB +6% and most small-cap education names, Exhibit 1). Despite our largely unchanged profit forecasts for FY25E/26E vs. 1 year ago, share prices have been dr ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 ab 8 January 2025 Global Research Sector vs. Stock Impacts on Manager Performance 2024: Sector decisions added +1.7% to performance in 2024, primarily driven by an overweight stance in Industrials which added 1.1%. Stock selection neither helped nor hurt as a -0.8% headwind within Industrials was primarily offset by a 0.6% gain within Financials. Among the largest contributors, underweighting APP alone cost -75 bps of performance. 4Q24: Sector decisions added +1.2% to ...

Telecom & Cable Services Year Ahead Outlook - Key Points Industry Overview - The telecom and cable services industry in North America is characterized by approximately 500 million customer connections, $1 trillion in equity value, and $700 billion in net debt, indicating a significant market size and financial leverage [12][13][17] - The industry faces both headwinds and tailwinds, with revenue mix impacting consolidated growth outlook for operators [12] Core Industry Insights - **US Wireless Growth**: Expected service revenue growth of around 4% with stable volume growth and competitive intensity [13] - **US Broadband Growth**: Anticipated service revenue growth of approximately 3%, facing rising competition from Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) and Fiber to the Home (FTTH) expansion [13] - **Canadian Telecom**: Projected service revenue growth of about 1.5%, with slowing immigration tailwinds and increasing competition [13] - **Satellite Radio**: Experiencing a decline as younger audiences shift towards streaming services [13] Investment Outlook - **Top Picks**: - AT&T (T) with a price target of $28, noted for accelerating organic growth and a buyback implementation [18] - T-Mobile (TMUS) with a price target of $280, benefiting from the Sprint merger and showing the highest growth rate in the sector [20] - **Cautionary Notes**: - Comcast (CMCSA) and Charter (CHTR) face limited EBITDA growth and subscriber declines, with elevated leverage impacting their outlook [22][26] - BCE and RCIb are viewed negatively due to slowing growth and high financial leverage [26][27] Competitive Landscape - The industry is witnessing a shift towards convergence, which is seen as a double-edged sword, impacting investment bias towards growth [12][25] - The US wireless market is maturing, but there is still potential for growth, with postpaid wireless subscriber growth expected to moderate to around 2% annually [72][73] Fiber and Broadband Dynamics - Fiber penetration rates are climbing above 40%, indicating a shift in consumer preference towards fiber services [81] - Cable's market share peaked at 65% in 2020 and has been declining, with competition driving ISPs to expand 1 Gbps+ offerings [89][98] Financial Metrics and Projections - AT&T's service revenue is expected to grow low-single digits, with a projected EBITDA growth of 4.1% in the bull case scenario [111] - T-Mobile's EBITDA and free cash flow are expected to see uplifts of 4% and 6% respectively from pending deals [119] Conclusion - The telecom and cable services industry is navigating a complex landscape of competition, technological advancements, and changing consumer preferences, with varied growth prospects across different companies and segments [12][25][34]

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 ab 8 January 2025 Global Research US Equity Strategy - Small Cap Core Small Cap Core Manager Performance - January 2025 Manager Performance vs. Russell 2000 Small Cap Core managers led the Russell 2000 by +0.7% in 2024 (12.2% vs. 11.5%), net of fees. Despite outperforming by +1.0% in December, managers lagged the benchmark by -0.3% in 4Q. Sector vs. Stock Impacts on Manager Performance 2024: Sector decisions added +1.3% to performance in 2024 driven primarily by an ov ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 ab 8 January 2025 Global Research US Equity Strategy - SMID Cap Growth SMID Cap Growth Manager Performance - January 2025 Manager Performance vs. Russell 2500G Smid Cap Growth managers trailed the Russell 2500 Growth by -0.6% in 2024 (13.3% vs. 13.9%), net of fees. Although PMs lagged the benchmark by -0.4% during 4Q, they outperformed by 2.0% in December. Sector vs. Stock Impacts on Manager Performance 2024: Sector decisions added +1.4% to performance in 2024, driven ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 ab 8 January 2025 Global Research China Equity Strategy 2025 & near-term A-share outlook in pictures Near-term outlook: range-bound trade with limited downside The market sentiment soured recently with Wind all A-share index seeing a loss of 8% since 13 Dec 2024 due to (1) potential tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty; (2) a lack of policy easing details till Two Sessions in Mar 2025; (3) weaker Rmb exchanged rate against the US dollar and falling Chinese government ...

Summary of Goldman Sachs China Basic Materials 2025 Outlook Industry Overview - The report focuses on the outlook for the China Basic Materials sector in 2025, indicating a more favorable year compared to 2024 due to stabilizing domestic demand and supply discipline leading to improved pricing and margins [1][2]. Key Companies and Ratings - **Cement**: Upgraded Conch-H and CNBM to Buy from Neutral, with expected unit gross profit of Rmb88-90/t for Conch in 2025-26E, up from Rmb58/t in 2024E [12][13][81]. - **Coal**: Downgraded Chinacoal-H/A and Shenhua-A from Neutral to Sell, with expectations of a long-term correction in coal demand due to China's energy transition [12][13][92]. - **Aluminum**: Upgraded Chalco-H to Buy from Sell, with a revised price target reflecting improved pricing for alumina and bauxite [12][13][81]. - **Copper**: Maintained a positive outlook, expecting a 3.0% increase in demand in 2025E [12][13][124]. Demand Projections - Overall demand for China commodities is expected to grow between -3.5% to +3.0% in 2025, a significant improvement from -10.2% to +4.4% in 2024 [2][15]. - Key drivers for demand include infrastructure construction, property completion, and solar installation, with infrastructure expected to stabilize after a decline in 2024 [28][29]. Supply-Side Dynamics - Significant overcapacity exists in cement and steel, with estimates suggesting that 900 million tonnes of clinker capacity (40% of total) and nearly 400 million tonnes of steel capacity (30% of total) need to be removed to restore supply-demand balance [3][58][67]. - Current capacity utilization rates are 51% for cement and 72% for steel, with potential improvements expected through categorized management and enforcement of capacity exits [58][66]. Pricing and Margins - Cement prices are projected to recover, with gross profit margins expected to improve significantly in 2025 due to better capacity utilization and demand stabilization [12][13][81]. - Coal prices are expected to decline slightly, with thermal coal prices projected to average Rmb850/t in 2025, down from Rmb855/t in 2024 [12][13][95]. - Aluminum prices are expected to remain under pressure due to lower fabrication exports, with a forecasted average price of US$1.07/lb in 2025 [12][13][123]. Risks and Considerations - Risks include weaker-than-expected demand in construction and infrastructure, slower-than-expected capacity exits, and potential increases in raw material costs [12][13][169][171]. - The transition to renewable energy sources poses a long-term risk to coal demand, with expectations of a decline in thermal coal demand for power generation by 5-22% by 2030E [2][92]. Conclusion - The outlook for the China Basic Materials sector in 2025 is cautiously optimistic, with expected improvements in demand and pricing for cement and aluminum, while coal faces long-term challenges due to energy transition policies. The report emphasizes the importance of supply-side reforms and the need for capacity management to enhance profitability across the sector [1][12][13][92].

Weichai Power - Key Points Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Weichai Power - **Industry**: Heavy-duty trucks and engine manufacturing - **Ticker**: 000338.SZ - **Market Cap**: Rmb120 billion / US$16.4 billion [5] Core Insights and Arguments 1. **2025 Outlook**: The company has improved its outlook for 2025, raising EPS estimates by 12-15% due to expected demand rebound for LNG trucks and expansion into the EV market through a joint venture with BYD [1][12][42]. 2. **LNG Truck Demand**: Anticipated rebound in LNG truck demand in Q1 2025 after a decline in costs from Q4 2024, with expectations of flat year-over-year demand for LNG heavy-duty trucks in 2025 [1][2][18]. 3. **EV Transition**: Weichai is transitioning to an EV supplier, with the first phase of battery capacity completed by the end of 2024, aiming for operations to start in 2025 [1][15]. 4. **Market Share Projections**: Forecasted market share for Weichai in the China HDT segment is 40% in 2024, decreasing to 37% by 2026, which is an improvement from previous estimates [13][14]. 5. **Valuation Increase**: Price target raised by 23% to Rmb16.70, reflecting a valuation of 11.9x 2025E PE, which is slightly above historical averages [4][46]. Financial Metrics 1. **Earnings Estimates**: Revised earnings estimates indicate a 10% growth in 2025E net profit compared to previous flat forecasts [2][34]. 2. **Revenue Projections**: Expected revenues for 2025E are Rmb220.3 billion, with net profit projected at Rmb12.3 billion [33]. 3. **Dividend Yield**: The new price target implies a 2025E dividend yield of 5.9%, which is considered attractive [4][34]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Investor Sentiment**: Recent investor feedback indicates renewed interest in Weichai due to improved truck demand in China and favorable LNG prices, despite concerns over e-truck competition [3][12]. 2. **LBE Growth Potential**: Large bore engines (LBEs) are expected to become a significant growth driver, with projected sales of 13,000 units in 2025E and a 13% global market share [8][14]. 3. **Comparative Valuation**: Weichai's current valuation is lower than peers in the domestic HDT sector, suggesting it may be undervalued given the anticipated growth and market conditions [35][41]. Conclusion - **Investment Recommendation**: The company is upgraded to a Buy rating based on attractive valuation, expected demand recovery for LNG trucks, and strategic expansion into the EV market [1][12].

8 January 2025 Technology Strategy and Quantitative Research 本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 Technology Strategy: The $26T Question - What to do with Tech in 2025? Our recommendations A.M. (Toni) Sacconaghi, Jr. +1 212 407 5843 sacconaghi@bernsteinsg.com Ann Larson +1 212 756 4235 ann.larson@bernsteinsg.com Daniel Zhu +1 212 969 6072 daniel.zhu@bernsteinsg.com Lavnik Balyan +1 917 344 8563 lavnik.balyan@bernsteinsg.com 2024 was another outstanding year for tech, with outperformance concentrated enti ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The Energy sector in Europe underperformed significantly in the second half of 2024, leading to a revised sector view from 'Cautious' to 'In-Line' as much of the negative outlook is now priced in [1][8][40]. - The oil and gas markets have mixed prospects for 2025, with gas markets appearing robust while the oil market is well supplied, leading to potential downward pressure on earnings estimates [8][18]. Company Ratings and Price Targets - **Shell**: Upgraded to Overweight with a price target of £3,070, citing strong free cash flow (FCF) and balance sheet strength [5][43]. - **Equinor**: Upgraded to Overweight with a price target of NOK 340, driven by higher gas prices and lower capital expenditures [5][52]. - **TotalEnergies**: Downgraded to Equal-weight with a price target of €61 due to distribution risks and high capital expenditure burdens [5][58]. - **Eni**: Downgraded to Equal-weight on valuation grounds with a price target of €15 [5][68]. - **BP**: Maintained at Equal-weight with a price target of £407, facing challenges with strategy and balance sheet concerns [5][76]. - **Repsol**: Downgraded to Underweight with a price target of €11.7, highly leveraged to refining margins which are expected to remain subdued [5][86]. - **Galp Energia**: Reiterated Underweight on valuation grounds with a price target of €15.4 [5][96]. Financial Performance and Outlook - The sector's earnings estimates have declined by approximately 15% since the previous year, with a consensus Dated Brent price assumption of $67.9/bbl for 2025 [23][24]. - Free cash flow estimates for the sector are now below shareholder distribution estimates, leading to increased net debt and potential risks to distributions for most majors, except Shell [30][32]. - The sector's total distribution yield is forecasted at 11.7%, indicating a high payout ratio of around 42% of consensus cash flow from operations (CFFO) [32][35]. Market Dynamics - The oil market is expected to remain well supplied, with Brent prices likely to hover around $70/bbl, while European gas markets are tightening due to increased global LNG demand [20][21]. - The competition for LNG is expected to remain robust, especially with delays in new LNG projects [21][55]. - Refining margins are under pressure, particularly for companies like Repsol, which is heavily reliant on refining for cash flow [86]. Valuation Insights - The sector's relative valuation has become compelling, trading at 0.4x the market's price-to-cash-flow (P/CF) multiple, which is low by historical standards [35][40]. - Despite the challenges, the sector's current valuation suggests that further downgrades in earnings estimates are likely limited, indicating a potential stabilization in the outlook [40][41]. Conclusion - The Energy sector is transitioning from a cautious outlook to a more balanced view as much of the negative sentiment is now reflected in valuations. Companies like Shell and Equinor are positioned favorably due to their financial resilience and exposure to gas markets, while others like TotalEnergies and Repsol face challenges that may impact their performance in 2025 [1][40][41].