本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 ab 8 January 2025 Powered by YES UBS Evidence Lab Global Research US Building 2025: The Year Ahead - Gut Check Time We are constructive on the Homebuilder set up for 2025 We view the setup for homebuilder stocks in 2025 favorably and believe market sentiment has rapidly shifted towards peak pessimism, which often creates the most attractive buying opportunities for the group. According to the UBS HOLT team's proprietary valuation metrics (Figure 75) the builders are n ...

Summary of US Equity Strategy - Mid Cap Core Conference Call Company and Industry - **Company**: UBS Securities LLC - **Industry**: US Mid Cap Equity Strategy Key Points and Arguments Manager Performance Overview - Mid Cap Core managers underperformed the Russell Mid benchmark by -0.5% in 2024, achieving a return of 14.8% compared to the benchmark's 15.3% [1] - In 4Q24, managers lagged by -0.5%, despite a positive performance in December [1] Sector vs. Stock Impact - Sector decisions contributed positively, adding +1.1% to performance in 2024, with Financials and Industrials adding 0.9% and 0.6% respectively [2] - Underweighting Utilities, which performed strongly, resulted in a -0.5% drag on performance [2] - Stock selection negatively impacted performance by -1.6%, with underweights in PLTR and APP costing -52 bps and -40 bps respectively [2] 4Q24 Performance Insights - Sector decisions added +0.7% to 4Q performance, while stock selection detracted -1.2% [3] - Technology and Communications sectors were the main detractors, particularly the underweight in PLTR costing -54 bps [3] Factor Performance - Funds focusing on Price Momentum and Beta to the Economy outperformed by 8.2% and 7.8% respectively in 2024 [4] - In 4Q24, managers emphasizing stocks with high Beta to the Market and lower P/Es experienced favorable market conditions [4] Detailed Performance Metrics - Manager average return for 2024 was 14.8%, while the benchmark return was 15.3%, resulting in a -0.5% difference [8] - The 1st Quartile managers achieved a return of 20.3% in 2024, significantly outperforming the average [8] Sector Performance Attribution - In 2024, the Financials sector had a notable return of 29.8% for managers, contributing +0.8% to overall performance [11] - The Technology sector saw a return of 17.9%, but stock selection within this sector detracted from overall performance [11] Top and Bottom Contributors - Top contributors in 4Q24 included Marvell Tech (53.3% return) and TX Pac Land (25.1% return) [13] - Bottom contributors included Palantir Technologies (-103.3% return) and AppLovin (-148.1% return) [13] Overall Market Trends - The report indicates a trend of underperformance in certain sectors, particularly Technology, which may present risks for investors [3][4] - The analysis suggests that a focus on sector allocation and stock selection is crucial for improving manager performance in the future [2][4] Additional Important Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the impact of sector decisions versus stock selection on overall performance [2][3] - It highlights the need for managers to adapt strategies based on market conditions and sector performance to enhance returns [4][11]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Home Appliances - **Research Firm**: Morgan Stanley Asia Limited - **Date**: January 8, 2025 Core Insights - **Consumer Goods Trade-In Program**: The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced details for the 2025 consumer goods trade-in program, which is perceived to be better than expected due to its wider coverage and increased subsidies for air conditioning units [5][1]. - **Subsidy Expansion**: The program expands subsidy coverage from eight to twelve home appliance categories, adding microwave ovens, water purifiers, dishwashers, and rice cookers. Consumers can receive subsidies for up to three AC units and one item from each of the other eleven categories, capped at 20% of the retail price (maximum Rmb2,000/unit) [5][1]. - **Consumer Electronics Inclusion**: The program also includes three consumer electronics categories (smartphones, tablets, smartwatches) with a subsidy of up to 15% of the retail price (maximum Rmb500/unit) [5][1]. Company Preferences - **Investment Preference**: The report indicates a preference order for leading home appliance companies: Midea (Overweight), Gree (Overweight), and Haier (Equal Weight) [1][1]. Valuation and Price Targets - **Midea Group**: Valuation based on a sum of parts approach, with a target price of Rmb88/share, reflecting a 2024 estimated P/E of 16x, which is above its historical average [8][1]. - **Gree Electric Appliances**: Target price based on a 2025 estimated P/E of 9x, slightly below its historical average, indicating a weaker growth outlook compared to previous cycles [10][1]. - **Haier Smart Home**: Target price based on a 2025 estimated P/E of 13.5x, which aligns with its historical average, highlighting its strong market position in refrigerators and washing machines [15][1]. Risks and Opportunities - **Upside Risks**: Potential for a better-than-expected rebound in the Chinese property market, less competition from key players, and successful mergers and acquisitions [13][1][18][1]. - **Downside Risks**: Risks include fierce market competition, unfavorable foreign exchange movements, and execution risks related to M&A transactions [14][1][19][1]. Conclusion - The 2025 consumer goods trade-in program is expected to positively impact leading home appliance companies, with Midea, Gree, and Haier positioned favorably. The valuation methodologies and associated risks highlight the dynamic nature of the market, influenced by macroeconomic factors and competitive pressures.

ab 8 January 2025 Global Research US Equity Strategy - Mid Cap Value Mid Cap Value Manager Performance - January 2025 Manager Performance vs. Russell Mid Value Mid Cap Value managers trailed the Russell Mid Value by -1.0% in 2024 (12.1% vs. 13.1%), net of fees. December was a particulary favorable month, with managers outperforming by +1.0%, and offsetting a more difficult October/November. Sector vs. Stock Impacts on Manager Performance 2024: Sector decisions neither helped nor hurt performance in 2024. Ma ...

Summary of Global Semiconductor Research Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global semiconductor industry, highlighting significant trends and performance metrics for November 2024 and projections for 2025 and 2026 [1][6]. Key Points Semiconductor Sales Performance - Total semiconductor sales increased by **10.8% month-over-month (M/M)** in November, surpassing both the 10-year and 5-year seasonal averages by approximately **10 and 8 percentage points**, respectively [1]. - Year-over-year (Y/Y) growth for total semiconductor sales was reported at **+20.7%**, an acceleration of **8 points compared to October** [1]. - Memory sales surged by **87% Y/Y**, while non-memory integrated circuit (IC) revenue rose by **8.4% Y/Y**, consistent with October's performance [1]. Memory Segment Insights - DRAM sales reached a record of **$10.6 billion**, reflecting a **57.4% M/M increase** driven by a **34% sequential increase in units** and a **12% sequential increase in average selling price (ASP)** [2]. - NAND sales also saw a significant rise of **43% M/M** [2]. - The report anticipates a **10% Q/Q increase in blended DRAM contract pricing** for Q4 2024, with expectations for a recovery in DRAM and NAND contract pricing through 2025 [2]. Future Projections - For Q1 2025, street estimates predict total semiconductor revenue (sell-through basis) to increase by **1.5% Q/Q**, primarily driven by memory sales, while revenues excluding memory are expected to remain stable [3]. - Full-year 2024 revenue is projected to grow by approximately **18% Y/Y**, with total semiconductor industry revenues expected to rise by **24% and 9% Y/Y in 2025 and 2026, respectively** [1]. Preferred Stocks - In the U.S. market, preferred stocks include **AVGO, ARM, MU, NVDA, and TXN**. Internationally, favored stocks are **Infineon, Hon Hai Precision, MediaTek, Quanta, NXP, Renesas Electronics, Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, StarPower, and TSMC** [1]. Additional Insights - The report notes a mild erosion in DDR blended contract ASPs but expects a stabilization in pricing trends moving forward [2]. - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a broader memory upcycle, which is anticipated to continue until the end of 2025 [2]. Conclusion - The global semiconductor industry is showing robust growth, particularly in the memory segment, with significant increases in sales and favorable projections for the coming years. The report highlights key players and investment opportunities within the sector, indicating a positive outlook for investors.

Investment Rating - LWSA is rated as "Buy" with a price target of R$7.20, applying a 21x multiple to 2026E net income [28][14] - NVIDIA is also rated as "Buy" with a price target of US$185, based on a ~30x P/E multiple on C2026E EPS of $6.22 [28][7] Core Insights - The latest UBS Evidence Lab survey indicates that overall AI adoption is increasing but at a slow pace, with 100% of respondents in the AI investigation stage and 61% live with AI products/apps in at least one functional area, up from 52% in May 2024 [4][6] - Despite the positive trend, only 11% of organizations are in production at scale with AI initiatives, with most expecting to move into production by 2H25/2026, which may disappoint investors looking for a significant AI lift in 1H25 [4][6] - Nvidia, Microsoft, and OpenAI continue to lead in the AI space, with Nvidia being the preferred AI compute platform for both training and inference [4][6] - The average expected increase in IT budgets for 2025 is 4.4%, down from 5.6% in the previous survey, indicating a stable spending backdrop [4][6] Summary by Sections AI Adoption and Market Dynamics - 100% of surveyed organizations are exploring AI, with 61% actively using AI products/apps, a significant increase from previous surveys [4][6] - The primary challenge for AI adoption is unclear ROI, which is causing delays in scaling production [4][6] Company Performance and Outlook - LWSA reported a 43% YoY increase in sales for online SMBs in December 2024, reinforcing a positive outlook for Q4 [8][9] - Nvidia's CEO highlighted the company's strong position in AI, emphasizing the need for accelerated computing and the potential for new industries to emerge from AI advancements [6][7] Financial Metrics and Valuation - LWSA's valuation is based on a 21x multiple to 2026E net income, reflecting a historical discount to global SaaS peers [14] - Nvidia's price target is based on a ~30x P/E multiple, indicating strong growth expectations despite recent supply chain concerns [7][13]

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 January 7, 2025 02:00 PM GMT Thematics Venture Vision: AI & One- Person-Unicorns? A year ago, Sam Altman suggested that AI could catalyse the era of one-person billion-dollar start-ups. Perhaps. But our latest AI mapping work and the Census Bureau's fortnightly AI survey show larger companies have initially stolen a march. Last night we published our third global AI mapping report, covering >3700 global stocks. One angle of analysis - not pursued in that report - is t ...

Summary of China Consumer Appliances Sector Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Consumer Appliances Sector** and the implications of the **2025 home appliances trade-in subsidies** announced by the **National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC)** and the **Ministry of Finance** on January 8, 2025 [1][2]. Key Takeaways 1. **Expansion of Subsidy Categories**: - In 2025, the central government will expand subsidies to cover **4 additional categories**: microwave, water purifier, dishwasher, and rice cooker, alongside the existing **8 categories** (fridge, washing machine, TV, air conditioner, PC, water heater, range hood, and hobs) [2][3]. 2. **Subsidy Structure**: - The trade-in subsidy will remain at **15% of the sales price**, with an additional **5% for energy-efficient products**. The cap for subsidies is set at **RMB 2,000** per category per consumer, with air conditioners allowing up to **3 units** per consumer [3]. 3. **Increased Total Subsidies**: - The total amount for the **2025 subsidies** will significantly increase from **RMB 150 billion** allocated in 2024. The government has already issued **RMB 81 billion** to support consumer goods trade-in, exceeding market expectations and potentially boosting consumption during the Chinese New Year [4]. 4. **Impact of 2024 Subsidies**: - The **2024 trade-in subsidies** positively impacted sales, with **over 36 million consumers** purchasing **56 million units** of appliances, driving sales of **RMB 240 billion**. The total subsidies amounted to **RMB 43 billion**, higher than previous market expectations [5]. Stock Implications - **Hisense Home Appliances** is rated as **Buy**, while **Zhejiang Supor** is rated as **Neutral**. Both companies are expected to benefit from the subsidy policies [6]. Risks and Challenges - The main risks facing the sector include: - **Property market downturn** affecting demand for home appliances - **Elevated raw material prices** and **global supply chain constraints** impacting exports [8]. - Specific risks for **Hisense** include reduced demand for white goods, soft HVAC demand, intensified competition, and geopolitical tensions affecting export sales [9]. For **Supor**, risks include rising price competition and raw material cost inflation [10]. Conclusion - The 2025 subsidies are expected to significantly boost the consumer appliances market in China, particularly benefiting companies like Hisense and Supor. However, potential risks from the property market and raw material costs could pose challenges to growth in the sector.

更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 [Jan 11th 2025] 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 The world this week Leaders Letters By Invitation Briefing Asia China United States The Americas Middle East & Afr ...