发言人 3 0:00:55 好的，谢谢邓老师。大家早上好，我是民生电信分析师王玉如。今天就结合我们 已经外发的这个年度策略报告和这篇 PPT 跟大家做一个分享。首先这里我们对今 年的行情做了一个简单的复盘。我们认为就是今年风电的走势，主要交易了两重 逻辑。其一就是以江苏海丰项目审批通过为代表的行业右侧信号确立。其二就是 行业整体的这个招标量和价格，反映了我往明年开始看这个需求景气度的这样一 个因素。这实际上也反映了之前行业主要是受到一些非市场化因素的影响，这一 点可能在海丰体现的会更为明显一些。 23 年到 24 年的上半年的话，像海风面临的这些非市场化因做并没有完全消退， 然后行业需求不及预期，同时下游主机厂的价格压力也在向上游传导，再叠加产 业链有一些新增产能的释放，整整体的产业利用产能利用率比较低，所以产这个 全产业的利润是也是有所收缩的那站在当前时点，我们对后续这个第三次增长核 心条件也做了一个推导。就是 25 年到 26 年，我们以这个呃相对比较短期的这样 一个时间区间去看啊。他就主要体现在就是在这一轮最近一轮的资本开支基本完 成，同时总量需求和结构需求比较旺盛。 主要包括像我们今年一直重点推荐的这 ...

Industry and Company Overview * **Industry**: Photovoltaic industry, specifically focusing on polysilicon and downstream products like solar cells and modules. * **Company**: Not specified, but the discussion includes various companies and industry trends. Key Points 1. Polysilicon Market and Supply * **Capacity**: As of the end of 2024, polysilicon capacity is expected to be around 200-210 GW, with a planned capacity of 2.2 GW for polysilicon and wafer production. [1] * **Excess Supply**: The industry is facing significant excess supply, with a potential for near doubling of excess capacity. [1] * **Price Pressure**: The excess supply is putting downward pressure on prices, leading to concerns about profitability. [1] 2. Multi-Silicon Futures * **Launch**: Multi-silicon futures are scheduled to launch on December 26, 2024, on the Guangdong Futures Exchange. [5] * **Trading Details**: The initial contract is 2506, with a daily limit of ±4% and a margin requirement of 9%. [5] * **Impact**: The futures market is expected to have a significant impact on the industry, providing a reference price for the long term and influencing production and inventory management. [2] 3. Industry Influence and Impact * **Long-term Impact**: The futures market is expected to have a long-term impact on the industry, including price discovery, production planning, and inventory management. [2] * **Global Influence**: The launch of the futures market is expected to enhance China's global influence in the green energy sector. [4] * **Financial Attractiveness**: The futures market is expected to attract financial elements and support the development of the polysilicon industry in the western region of China. [7] 4. Supply and Demand Dynamics * **Supply**: The industry is currently facing a supply glut, with excess capacity and inventory levels. [1] * **Demand**: Demand for polysilicon is expected to increase in the coming months, driven by growing solar installations. [8] * **Price Trends**: Prices are expected to rise in the short term, driven by factors such as inventory reduction, production cuts, and increased demand. [16] 5. Investment Opportunities * **Focus Areas**: The report recommends focusing on three key areas: polysilicon, solar cells, and modules; inverters and energy storage; and new technologies like HJT and BC. [20] * **Recommended Companies**: The report highlights several companies in each of these areas, including polysilicon producers, solar cell and module manufacturers, and new technology developers. [20] Conclusion The launch of multi-silicon futures is expected to have a significant impact on the polysilicon market and the broader photovoltaic industry. The report highlights the challenges of excess supply and price pressure, but also identifies opportunities for investment in key areas of the industry.

摘要 本周四，美联储召开了今年最后一次议息会议，将基准利率下调 25 个基点至 4.25%~4.5%。自 9 月以来，美联储已累计降息 100 个基点。然而，本次降息被市 场解读为鹰派降息，因其政策声明、经济预测及新闻发布会均表现出强硬立场。 声明中增加了"幅度和时机"的表述，暗示未来降息步伐将放缓。同时，美联储 内部出现分歧，克里夫兰联储主席反对本次降息，倾向于保持利率不变。 从经 济预测来看，美联储上调了今明两年的 GDP 和通胀预期，下调失业率预期。2024 年 GDP 增速上调 0.5 个百分点至 2.5%，2025 年上调 0.1 个百分点至 2.1%；2024 年失业率下调 0.2 个百分点至 4.2%，2025 年下调 0.1 个百分点至 4.3%；2024 年核心 PCE 通胀上调 0.2 个百分点至 2.8%，2025 年上调 0.3 个百分点至 2.5%。 点阵图显示，2025 年的降息次数由四次减少到两次。 在新闻发布会上，美联储 主席鲍威尔表示，将在考虑进一步调整政策利率时更加谨慎。如果经济保持强劲 且通胀未继续向目标迈进，美联储可能放缓政策调整；但若劳动力市场疲软或通 胀下降超预期， ...

12 月 10 日之所以成为一个重要的时间节点，是因为 12 月 9 日召开了政治局会 议。该会议对 2024 年的整体经济工作进行了回顾和评定，并对明年的经济工作 进行了定调。此次政治局会议的表述非常积极，尤其在货币政策方面，提出从稳 健转向适度宽松，这是自 2008 年以来首次大的货币政策转向。因此，对于 2025 年的整个货币环境，无论是降息还是降准，我们都保持积极乐观的态度。在 11 月底至 12 月 9 日期间，市场在交易政策预期时，一些主题类投资表现火热，如 机器人板块、受海外 AI 应用影响的传媒和游戏股票，以及低空经济板块等。然 而，随着会议落地，这些主题类投资出现股价回调，而防御型板块如红利板块则 走强。这种风格切换与事件驱动密切相关。 在提升上市公司市值管理方面，回购和分红有何重要性？美国市场的经验如 何？ 国内近期有哪些重要政策发布，这些政策对债券市场和 A 股市场有何影响？ 并购重组是上市公司进行市值管理的重要工具，是做大做强市值最直接的方法之 一。在 2013-2015 年的创业板牛市中，并购重组是一个非常重要的触发因素。并 购重组意味着将更多业务纳入公司的经营范畴，涉及大量业绩承诺 ...

鹰派的表态呢其实往往发生在市场上多上涨比较多之后呃他其实呢用于打主要是用于打压他的乐观预期然后呢在市场下跌的之后呢往往又转戈呃利用官员公开发言进行预期管理呢是美联储的一个惯用手段 这个工资两部分鲍威尔之所以这么讲呢是因为目前的这个工资的年性很大程度上其实来自于美国的公务员系统我们看到实际上美国的这个医疗啊包括他的整体的公务员人数呢大幅的增加这部分非市场化定价的工资本来就不受货币政策的控制那么也就带来货币政策对工资通胀的一个失灵因此呢 但是市场明显对美联储本次一些会议传达的信息存在了一定程度的误读我们认为当前4.5%的长端利率定价了过多的悲观预期对短期还有中期的美债走势都可以更乐观一些那么对A股分母端驱动的成长股的行情也可以更乐观一些首先我们认为美联储本次的鹰派的表态只是它惯用的预期管理手段对美联储未来的 他自己内部成员的观点相互冲突也是经常发生的因此往往直到议席会议的前夕我们市场才会市场的预期才会逐渐的去接近最后的利率决议的结果因此站在当前的时间点市场对于2025年的利率预期大概率在后面会有调整此外我们认为其实股市本身就是本轮美联储预期管理的一个核心抓手 复盘这三次的案例我们可以发现暂停降息的背景都是经济起稳 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the outlook for the construction and materials industry in 2025, emphasizing the impact of large-scale debt issuance and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on project execution and investor returns [1][2][3][4]. Key Points Debt Issuance and Investor Returns - 2025 is expected to be a significant year for large-scale debt issuance, which is anticipated to enhance project cash flow and reduce impairments, thereby improving investor returns through potential dividend and buyback policies [1][2][3]. Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) - The upcoming BRI summit in 2025 is expected to catalyze growth, particularly in the western regions of China, which are seen as pivotal to the BRI strategy [1][2][4]. State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) - SOEs are increasingly securing EPC (Engineering, Procurement, and Construction) orders overseas, indicating a growing international presence [1][2][4]. Market Sentiment and Stock Recommendations - The focus on market capitalization management and performance assessments for SOE leaders is expected to favor companies with strong balance sheets and recovery potential. Recommended stocks include China State Construction, China Railway Construction, and China National Chemical [1][2][3][4]. Construction Sector Outlook - The construction sector is expected to benefit from increased domestic demand and the expansion of special bonds aimed at stimulating consumption. However, challenges remain, particularly in the real estate sector, where new construction starts are projected to decline [1][2][3][4]. Material Sector Insights - The materials sector, particularly construction materials like cement and steel, is anticipated to see a gradual recovery in 2025, driven by infrastructure investments and a shift towards renovation and secondary housing markets [6][7][8]. Long-term Demand Trends - The demand for construction materials is expected to be supported by a growing trend in secondary renovations, with projections indicating that the share of second-hand housing sales will increase significantly by 2025 [6][7]. Risk Factors - Despite the positive outlook, there are concerns regarding the sustainability of demand, particularly in the real estate sector, which may face ongoing pressures. The potential for a downturn in demand over the next five to six years is acknowledged [9][10][11]. Specific Sector Recommendations - The call highlights specific sectors for investment: - **Cement**: Expected to see stable demand and profitability due to infrastructure projects [10][11]. - **Steel**: Anticipated to maintain high demand from manufacturing and infrastructure, although export challenges may persist [10][11]. - **Coal**: Projected to experience modest growth, with price pressures from imports [12]. Additional Insights - The conference also touches on the importance of monitoring policy changes and market conditions closely, particularly during key economic meetings, to identify potential investment opportunities [4][5][6]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the anticipated trends and investment opportunities within the construction and materials industry for 2025.

各位领导然后晚上好我是动物策略研究员孔思迈然后接下来由我对本周A股的一个盘面的情况然后以及产业趋势交易进行一个总结和展望然后那么我们还是提示一下就是我们接下来提到的这个个股或者标的它是只代表与这个产业或者交易热点有关联并不代表我们的一个投资建议那么个股层面还是请各位领导去参照我们动物政策研究所行业组所推荐的一个标的 那接下来我们看一下这个风格这个位置本周的话呢其实基本上就是科创50是一枝独秀的然后呢整体而言呢就是虽然我们说科创50很强但是其实整体上这个成长和价值的分化不明显反而是我们之前我们在12月8号这个的汇报里面其实有提示我们说这个小盘呢他其实 那这样的话这种这个资金龙的轮动就会变快然后你可能选错了的话呢可能还会导致一些亏损啊这就导致一些啊一部分的这个主观型的这个活跃资金呢从过去这种单纯寻找小世界弹性标的的模式呢从中撤退出来了而选择去啊也去关注一些我们说有逻辑的啊说有容量的这样的一些核心的标的然后 包括这个程序化资金这一边呢之前我们也提示过那在这一轮当中呢更多的程序化资金它的这个模式呢是去加速这个趋势啊去助长助跌的所以在小盘股的调整过程中呢啊他们也可能会加速这种调整那呃所以说呃我们说本周小盘的调整可能有这 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy and its implications for the economy, particularly in relation to inflation and interest rates [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. - The call also touches on the carbon market, specifically regarding production and demand dynamics in China, as well as the impact of international trade on supply [8][9][10]. Key Points on U.S. Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The U.S. Federal Reserve has shifted its monetary policy outlook from a downward trend to an upward trend in interest rates due to persistent inflation pressures [1][2][3]. - Core inflation remains high, with a slow decline rate, indicating that inflation is more resilient than previously expected [1][2][3]. - The labor market is strong, with income growth above 0.3%, suggesting that economic conditions are robust despite inflationary pressures [1][2][3]. - The Fed's interest rate meeting in December indicated a slower pace of rate cuts, reflecting a cautious approach to managing inflation and economic growth [1][2][3][4]. - There is uncertainty regarding the long-term impact of Trump's policies on the U.S. economy, particularly concerning tax cuts and tariffs [5][6][7]. Insights on Carbon Market Dynamics - In December, the carbon market experienced weak pricing, with expectations of a price rebound limited by increased production capacity in China [8][9]. - New production lines, such as Ganfeng's 50,000-ton facility in Sichuan, have contributed to a rapid increase in effective production capacity [8][9]. - Export data from Argentina and Chile shows significant increases, with Argentina exporting over 7,000 tons in November and Chile maintaining high production levels [8][9]. - Demand in December saw a sharp decline, but expectations for January remain positive, with indications of better-than-expected demand [10]. Additional Considerations - The market is currently in a transition period, awaiting clearer signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve and the impact of upcoming policies under the new administration [6][7]. - The balance between inflation and economic growth will be crucial in determining future monetary policy and market conditions [6][7]. - The overall output efficiency in China's carbon-free chain remains stable, indicating no immediate concerns about supply shortages [9][10]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on the U.S. economic outlook and the dynamics within the carbon market.

Summary of the Conference Call Transcript Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **thermal coal industry in China**, specifically analyzing data from **100 sample mines** located in **Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia** [4][6][14]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Production Data**: - From December 12 to December 18, 2024, the thermal coal output from the sample mines was **12,583 kt**, which represents a **0.5% decrease week-over-week (WoW)** but a **5.0% increase year-over-year (YoY)**. On a lunar calendar basis, the output increased by **6.7% YoY** [4]. - The output from individual regions was as follows: - **Shanxi**: **3,001 kt** (+0.2% WoW, +1.4% YoY) - **Shaanxi**: **3,870 kt** (-0.4% WoW, +14.5% YoY) - **Inner Mongolia**: **5,712 kt** (-0.9% WoW, +1.6% YoY) [4]. 2. **Year-to-Date (YTD) Output**: - The YTD thermal coal output was **605 million tonnes (mnt)**, reflecting a **0.5% decrease YoY**. The breakdown by region is: - **Shanxi**: -11.0% YoY - **Shaanxi**: +3.2% YoY - **Inner Mongolia**: +3.5% YoY [4]. 3. **Utilization Ratio**: - The overall utilization ratio of the sample mines was **93.2%**, down **0.4 percentage points (ppt) WoW**, but up **4.4 ppt YoY**. On a lunar calendar basis, it increased by **5.9 ppt YoY** [14]. - Regional utilization ratios were: - **Shanxi**: **87.2%** (+0.2 ppt WoW, +0.9 ppt YoY) - **Shaanxi**: **98.8%** (-0.4 ppt WoW, +12.3 ppt YoY) - **Inner Mongolia**: **93.0%** (-0.8 ppt WoW, +1.4 ppt YoY) [14]. Additional Important Information - The report includes a **CNY chart** showing total coal inventory in the sample mines, which is crucial for understanding market dynamics [6]. - The data is sourced from **Citi Research** and **Sxcoal**, indicating a reliance on reputable industry data for analysis [6][17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of considering both production and utilization metrics to gauge the health of the thermal coal market in China [4][14]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the thermal coal industry in China, highlighting production trends, regional performance, and utilization ratios.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the A-share market in China, focusing on investor sentiment, turnover metrics, and market dynamics as of December 18, 2024. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Investor Sentiment Decline**: The Morgan Stanley A-share Sentiment Indicator (MSASI) dropped by 18 percentage points to 73% (weighted) and 16 percentage points to 64% (simple) compared to the previous week, indicating a decline in investor confidence [48][69][73]. 2. **Average Daily Turnover (ADT) Changes**: For the period of December 12-18, the ADT for ChiNext and A-shares decreased by 10% and 4% respectively compared to the previous cycle (December 5-11) [48][69]. 3. **Equity Futures and Northbound Turnover Growth**: In contrast, ADT for equity futures and Northbound trading increased by 5% each during the same period, suggesting a shift in trading dynamics [48][69]. 4. **Earnings Estimate Revision**: The consensus earnings estimate revision breadth remains negative, but the downward momentum has slowed since late November 2024, indicating a potential stabilization in corporate earnings outlook [48][69]. 5. **Market Response to Policy Stimulus**: The recent modest stimulus from the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) is viewed as insufficient to counteract headwinds from housing market pressures and tariffs, leading to a cautious outlook [69][71]. 6. **Property Market Trends**: November property sales showed a year-on-year increase for the first time since the second half of 2023, with secondary home prices in tier 1 cities rising by 0.4% month-on-month, although construction and real estate investment (REI) conditions worsened [71]. 7. **US-China Relations Impact**: The ongoing tensions between the US and China, along with a hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve, are contributing to uncertainty in the market, affecting risk assets and investor sentiment [71][80]. Additional Important Insights 1. **New Investor Registrations**: The number of new investors registered has been tracked, with data indicating fluctuations in market participation since January 2014 [1][85]. 2. **Margin Financing Trends**: The balance of margin financing as a percentage of free float market capitalization is monitored, reflecting investor leverage in the market [25][95]. 3. **Limit-Up A-Shares**: The number of A-shares trading at the daily limit-up has been analyzed, providing insights into market volatility and investor behavior [24][96]. 4. **Technical Indicators**: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the CSI 300 has been utilized to gauge market momentum, with recent data showing a decline [12][99]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of the A-share market, investor sentiment, and the implications of macroeconomic factors on market dynamics.