Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Economics** sector, particularly analyzing the macroeconomic conditions and consumer behavior in China as of December 2024 [1]. Core Insights - **GDP Growth**: The GDP for 4Q24 is projected to be strong at **5.5% QoQ SAAR**, but the growth is primarily supply-driven, indicating an imbalance in supply and demand [1]. - **Stimulus Impact**: The first round of stimulus has positively influenced infrastructure capital expenditure (capex) and durable goods sales, but consumption outside the trade-in program has weakened, reflecting a subdued consumer appetite due to uncertainties in job and income growth [1]. - **Retail Sales Performance**: Retail sales excluding automobile and housing-related goods have softened to **2% YoY** in October-November, down from **3.5% YoY** in 3Q, indicating a crowd-out effect from policy support and weak consumer sentiment [1]. - **Future Projections**: The second round of stimulus, amounting to **Rmb2 trillion**, is expected to be modest and supply-centric, which may not sufficiently counteract the looming threats from US tariffs. GDP growth is anticipated to soften again in **2Q25** due to ongoing debt-deflation dynamics and tariff hikes [1]. Additional Important Points - **Consumer Sentiment**: The report highlights that consumer sentiment remains weak amid uncertainties regarding job security and income growth, which could hinder the effectiveness of stimulus measures [1]. - **Deflationary Pressures**: The expectation of continued deflationary pressures suggests that the economic rebound may be short-lived without significant consumption stimulus [1]. - **Infrastructure and Export Focus**: The GDP growth is expected to sustain at approximately **5% SAAR** in **1Q25**, driven by infrastructure and export front-loading, but is likely to dip again in subsequent quarters [1]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the economic landscape in China, emphasizing the challenges and potential risks that may affect future growth.

16 December 2024 | 11:34AM HKT China: 70-city average primary property prices roughly stable in November annualized, -5.8% yoy. 1. After seasonal adjustments, weighted average house prices in the primary market fell by 0.1% mom annualized in November (vs. -3.6% in October; Exhibit 1), on the back of ongoing easing policies. The number of cities that experienced sequentially higher property prices increased notably in both primary and secondary markets in November (Exhibit 3). Year-on-year change in the weig ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **APAC shipping industry**, particularly the performance and outlook of major shipping companies including **Evergreen Marine (EMC)** and **COSCO Shipping Holdings (CSH)** [1][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Demand Outlook**: Demand for shipping is expected to remain strong into **March 2025**, with a projected **4-5% growth** in container demand. This is supported by discussions with major shipping companies indicating limited signs of demand fade [3][10]. - **Earnings Forecasts**: The **2025E core earnings** for APAC liners have been increased by an average of **6 times**, with revised earnings approximately **39% below** market expectations, indicating a **core ROE** of **8-12%** [4][28]. - **Upgrades and Downgrades**: - **Evergreen Marine (EMC)** and **COSCO Shipping Holdings (CSH)** have been upgraded to **Buy** from **Sell**, with target prices revised to **NT$282** and **HK$13.3** respectively [4][28]. - **Yang Ming Marine (YM)** has been downgraded to **Sell** from **Neutral** due to limited vessel orders and a challenging market position [4][29]. Financial Metrics - **Target Prices**: - EMC's target price is based on **1.1x 2025E PBV** with a **12% core ROE**. - CSH's target price is based on **0.85x 2025E PBV** with an **8.5% core ROE** [9]. - **Market Capitalization**: - CSH has a market cap of **HK$194.72 billion** and EMC has a market cap of **NT$495.497 billion** [4]. Risks and Considerations - **Tariff Implications**: Anticipation of **Trump's second-term tariffs** starting as early as **June 2025** could impact shipping dynamics, with potential inventory building by US retailers due to expected tariff increases [3][30][38]. - **Supply Chain Adjustments**: The first term of Trump's tariffs led to supply chain alterations rather than a decline in US container imports, with significant market share gains for countries like **Mexico**, **Vietnam**, and **Taiwan** at the expense of **China** [11][17]. - **Potential Strikes**: The **International Longshoremen's Association (ILA)** strike negotiations beyond **January 15, 2025** could pose an upside risk, potentially disrupting supply and increasing rates [43][64]. Additional Insights - **Supply Dynamics**: The effective supply growth is projected to be lower than scheduled due to delays in new vessel deliveries, with a forecast of **5%** effective supply growth in **2026** [21][24]. - **Global Inflation Impact**: Easing global inflation may allow central banks to cut rates, historically supportive of container demand [19]. - **Scrapping Rates**: Scrapping of vessels has been less than **1%** of the fleet, indicating a profitable environment for shipping lines [46]. Conclusion - The APAC shipping industry is poised for a positive outlook with strong demand and revised earnings forecasts. However, potential risks from tariffs, supply chain disruptions, and labor negotiations could impact future performance. The strategic upgrades of key players like EMC and CSH reflect confidence in their ability to navigate these challenges effectively.

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16 Dec 2024 00:28:37 ET │ 10 pages Activity Improvement Stalls into Year-End CITI'S TAKE Citi Research is a division of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. (the "Firm"), which does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Certain products (not inconsis ...

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