更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： Ziyi Chen +852-2978-0526 | ziyi.chen@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Honglin Yan +852-2978-6666 | honglin.yan@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 Disclosure Appendix GS Factor Profile Quantum The following disclosures relate to relationships between The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (with its affiliates, "Goldman Sachs") and companies covered by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research and ref ...

shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 shuinu9870 Analysts' compensation is determined by Citi Research management and Citigroup's senior management and is based upon activities and services intended to benefit the investor clients of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. and its affiliates (the "Firm"). Compensation is not linked to specific transactions or recommendations. Like all Firm employees, analysts receive compensation that is impacted by overall Firm profitability which includes investment banking, sales ...

Industry and Company Overview - **Industry**: Life Science Tools & Diagnostics - **Survey Source**: J.P. Morgan survey - **Respondents**: 60 investors, including 43% from long-only funds and 57% from L/S funds - **Geography**: 90% based in the United States, 8% in Europe, and 2% in APAC Key Findings - **Overall Sentiment**: Cautiously optimistic with lingering concerns on China and pharma spending - **Upside Potential**: NTRA identified as having the greatest upside potential to consensus numbers for 2025, followed by TMO and DHR - **Downside Risk**: ILMN and DHR selected as having the greatest downside potential - **M&A Activity**: 57% of respondents expect a moderate increase in M&A activity in 2025, with 29% anticipating a more significant rise compared to 2024 - **Market Growth**: 42% of respondents believe the Life Science Tools market will grow +MSD in 2025, with 38% expecting +LSD growth in the instruments market - **Risk Factors**: China weakness and pharma spending identified as the biggest risk factors for 2025 - **Long Ideas**: TMO and DHR selected as top large-cap stocks to buy, with BRKR, GH, and RGEN as top mid-cap stocks - **Short Ideas**: ILMN, DHR, and WAT identified as top large-cap stocks to short, with TXG, RGEN, and CRL as top mid-cap stocks to short Subsector Analysis - **Core Tools**: Most likely to outperform in 2025, with Dental and Synbio expected to underperform - **Bioprocessing**: Expected to grow +MSD or +HSD in 2025, with 40% of respondents expecting +HSD growth - **Instruments**: Expected to grow +LSD in 2025, with 38% of respondents expecting +LSD growth Catalysts and Positioning - **Catalysts**: Incoming Trump Administration policies (tariffs, NIH budget, HHS and CMS confirmations, DOGE, etc.), China stimulus, and company-specific data readouts - **Positioning**: Mixed sentiment in the healthcare sector, with Medtech viewed as a safer spot amid uncertainty Conclusion The survey indicates a cautiously optimistic outlook for the Life Science Tools & Diagnostics industry in 2025, with investors expecting moderate growth and increased M&A activity. However, concerns remain regarding China's economic weakness and pharma spending. The survey also highlights specific companies and subsectors that investors believe will outperform in the coming year.

A:最大的是 25 跟 26 这 2 个线规，明年这两个线规释放量比较大。 Q:现在设备数量以及明年设备数量分别是多少？ 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Q:AEC 对铜缆的变化是替代了 AOC 还是 ACC？ Q:价格方面，现在是否还有涨价的可能？ A:需要观察对手进步情况，如果安菲洛良品率一直提不上去，就可以涨价。 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu9870 Q:如果明年能够放量，利润率（毛利率、净利率水平）大概能做到多少？ A:毛利肯定在 50%以上，因为整个乐亭公司的净利润在 30%以上。 Q:明年 5 亿美金是否全部能确收？ Q:目标份额是多少？ A:目标是达到 50%以上的份额，但达到可能有点困难，因为市场竞争激烈，安澜等对手进步 很快。 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu9870 A:不太清楚，需要查一下相关 PPT。 Q:国内的厂商如华为、华丰现在是否需要做 AEC，在这块有布局吗？哪家进度比较快？ A:他们有布局，华丰做的比较快一点。 Q:AEC 和铜连接在技术演进过程中，是否只是短期某一两代产品的过渡性方案，后续就无法 继续发展 ...

That didn't seem quite the right weather for a cover at this time of year so the sketch showed him walking through the snow. In the first iteration he is rather small, dwarfed by the sheer length of his journey but also oddly overshadowed by a telephone pole. The second idea drew on a story about the world's greatest fish market, Toyosu, in the Japanese capital, Tokyo. Fish is more Christmassy than you might think. Many countries incorporate fish into their festive meals (herring in Denmark, shrimp on the B ...

可能会有多回撤但是最终我们会发现下的是非常快的最终大概的行情的感觉就是在破1.9 1.8乃至1.7的时候都非常非常顺畅大概几个原因吧我们认为第一个原因呢可能是所谓的政策进入了空窗期因为两个大会开完之后基本上没有什么东西可以歪歪了小作员大家也不是特别相信了所以可博弈的利空的东西就比较少 比如说央行的一些监管或者也可能是出于年末去控制组合的这个酒期啊那这个方向上好像也是短短比长达会好一点第三个是保险这块我们看起来这个增量的数据好像也编辑上有一些卷缓啊但是客观上版本我们都知道中长期保险还是偏欠配的这么一个方向 虽然短期可能我们相对来说有一些小小的谨慎吧但是从整个行情上来看我们认为再次左右的这个方向没有变化就是高增猛进的这个步伐呢可能会进入一个宽幅的震荡的一个方式这个这个这个宽幅震荡的这么一种感觉 后面还是要关注一下央行对于流动性的一个呵护的姿态以及明年开年这个开盘的啊开年交易盘的这个指引意愿吧啊这是利率方面然后转债方面呢我顺便讲一下啊上周转债其实整体是偏正道的啊从估值来看呢目前大概接近今年5月份吧或者说21年以来的均值吧本周呢低价的一些转债啊在之前选出部长之后开始了有一些回调尤其是很多电信转债吧 但是转债其实还是比 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Company and Industry Involved - The discussion revolves around a technology company involved in the optical and semiconductor industry, specifically focusing on optical modules and related equipment. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Optimistic Outlook for Future Orders** The company anticipates a positive outlook for future orders, particularly in 2025, despite challenges in accurately predicting order volumes due to the current market dynamics [1][2][3]. 2. **Challenges in Order Volume** There has been a noted decrease in order volume since July, with new orders being limited. The company acknowledges that the order process requires time and is not a one-time event, indicating a gradual increase rather than a sudden spike [1][2][3]. 3. **Market Demand and Capacity Matching** The company emphasizes the importance of matching production capacity with market demand. It is noted that production plans will be adjusted based on actual market needs rather than speculative forecasts [3][4]. 4. **Technological Advancements and Client Relationships** The company highlights its strong relationships with major clients, particularly in North America, and the ongoing technological advancements in the CPU and optical module sectors. This includes a focus on domestic market growth and the need for continuous innovation [3][4][5]. 5. **Complexity of Equipment and Production Processes** The discussion touches on the complexity of production processes and the variability in equipment requirements based on different client specifications. The company notes that production efficiency can vary significantly depending on the technology and design used by clients [5][6][7]. 6. **Competitive Landscape** The company acknowledges the competitive landscape, particularly with traditional optical module manufacturers. It emphasizes the need for automation and advanced technology to maintain a competitive edge [12][14][19]. 7. **Challenges in Standardization** There is a significant challenge in standardizing equipment and processes within the optical industry, which affects production efficiency and cost structures. The company notes that each client's requirements can lead to different production setups, complicating the overall process [7][8][9]. 8. **Investment in Automation and Technology** The company is focused on investing in automation and advanced technology to improve production efficiency and reduce reliance on manual labor. This shift is seen as crucial for maintaining competitiveness in the market [12][14][20]. 9. **Collaboration with Major Tech Firms** The company has established collaborations with major technology firms, which enhances its technological capabilities and market reach. This includes partnerships that leverage shared knowledge and resources [18][19][20]. 10. **Future Growth Potential** The company expresses confidence in its growth potential, particularly in the domestic market, as it continues to innovate and adapt to changing market conditions. The emphasis is on leveraging existing capabilities to meet future demands [21][22][23]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The company discusses the importance of understanding client needs and the specific requirements for optical modules, which can vary widely. This understanding is crucial for designing equipment that meets market demands effectively [17][18]. - There is a mention of the historical context of the company's technology development, indicating a long-term commitment to innovation and adaptation in a rapidly evolving industry [20][21]. - The conversation also highlights the need for ongoing training and development of personnel to ensure that the company can meet future technological challenges and market demands effectively [22][23].

从半导体的制程来讲 那么它所需要的光刻机也好它所需要制成可能我最多可能做到就是因为我只有电的部分我可能需要做到比如说7纳米才可能有需求对光的来讲可能30纳米就够了成光的东西30纳米就够了但是我现在的话对于国外来讲它是把光和电混合成一个晶片这样的话我就可能会有一些制成上的一些匹配的问题 光可能也要去做7纳米的它不需要7纳米 还需要30纳米需要通过其他的方案来做包括我们的一纸集成 变相集成等等类似于这样的一些方案就达到最后我的整个的电荷光的集成我们叫2D的封装 2.5D的封装通过这样的方法完成 这个技术演进趋势其实是非常路线还有趋势是非常明确的也就是往这样一个方向来国外是往这个方向来的就是我们国内来讲是跟还是不跟那就是这样子的就是你不跟那你就可能别人现在的成本来讲国内的成本作为一个光棍块的成本还比 就是为什么银条卖不过新衣裳也卖不过虚创对吧便宜啊成本的问题但是人家做这种高级传话越做越小功耗越来越低了同时我这种流片的这种就是燃料比率越来越高了那我的成本自然就下去了 对吧那到最后面如果我类似于现在比如说我去做一个CPU或GPU这样的一种工艺了对吧如果变成这样的工艺变成一个光的引擎对吧我们最后就一个transceive ...

嘉宾发言内容仅代表嘉宾的个人观点和立场研究人员发言内容来自于以外发报告或对研报的跟踪解读观点仅代表报告发布当日的判断本会议内容的知识产权仅归光大证券所有 因为经济性的问题所以说加煤其实没有办法大规模出疆的但是随着整个煤价走高并且在二一年以后逐步的一个登峰的一个状态上那么西部的一个供应其实就有了一个比较强的边际利润那么也就可以开始逐步对外外运包括类似的像之前的话就是 那么全球二三年的一个原煤供应量大概是在八十五亿吨左右的一个水平那么其中我们国家对就是全年对煤炭的需求其实是超过五十亿吨的那么结构里面比如说整体结构今年上来说的话大概有四十八亿吨的一个资产那么剩下来的一个五亿吨大概是进口这是总量上来说 第一个就是因为新疆加煤和进口煤其实都有一个不低的增速而且是不低的一个增量的所以说他们都构成了一个重要的一个定价边际那么从增减情况上来说的话可以看到加煤的一个增产其实是最明显的而且整体上来说的话构成了一个整体的一个 第二个就是从需求上来说的一个情况那么我们可以看到供应的集中度很高但是对于需求来说的话不同用途的就是不管是从用途还是从地域分布上来说整个煤炭的一个使用的一个集中度都不如生产的一个集中度要高那么也是分两块来看一个 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Solar Energy - **Key Focus**: Solar glass, polysilicon, and photovoltaic (PV) modules Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Solar Glass Prices and Production**: - Prices for 3.2mm solar glass remained stable at RMB19.0-19.5 per m², while 2.0mm prices increased to RMB11.5-12.0 per m². Production capacity is at 94,890 tons/day, with inventory days decreasing by 1.88% week-over-week to 34.87 days [2][4][11] - Solar glass gross profit margin (GPM) fell significantly by 14.02 percentage points month-over-month to -19.46% due to sluggish demand and rising natural gas prices during the heating season [2][4] 2. **Polysilicon Market Dynamics**: - Polysilicon prices for P-type and N-type remained flat at RMB33.1 and RMB40.3 per kg, respectively. A significant drop in output is expected in December 2024, with a forecasted decrease of over 20% month-over-month to approximately 105,000 tons [11][4] - High inventory levels of around 400,000 tons are anticipated to keep prices under pressure until a significant output decline occurs [11][4] 3. **Photovoltaic Module Pricing Trends**: - Prices for M10 and G12 PERC modules remained stable at RMB0.69-0.71 per watt. However, the market is facing challenges with high inventory levels and weak demand, making price increases difficult [11][4] - The consensus reached at the CPIA annual PV conference suggests a potential price floor for modules, indicating a shift towards supply self-discipline in the industry [4][11] 4. **Company-Specific Developments**: - JKS announced a share repurchase program of up to $215.5 million, representing about 14% of its market cap, signaling a commitment to shareholder returns amidst a challenging market environment [4] - Sungrow reported a 3Q24 revenue of RMB18.93 billion, which was below market expectations, with a notable decline in net profit year-over-year for the first time since 4Q21 [4][11] 5. **Future Outlook**: - The solar industry is expected to see a turnaround by the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by new technology upgrades and potential improvements in demand [6][11] - The anticipated growth in global energy storage systems (ESS) is projected at over 50% in 2025, with management remaining optimistic about demand despite current challenges [6][11] Additional Important Insights - **Market Sentiment**: Investor sentiment remains cautious, with skepticism regarding the sustainability of supply self-discipline and shareholder returns [4][11] - **Regulatory Environment**: Potential risks in the U.S. market include uncertainties surrounding the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and import tariffs, which could impact future profitability [6][11] - **Technological Developments**: The industry is witnessing a shift towards advanced technologies, which may enhance efficiency and profitability in the long term [6][11] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and developments discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the solar energy industry.