Summary of MINISO Group (9896.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: MINISO Group (9896.HK) - **Market Cap**: HK$48,618 million (US$6,247 million) - **Current Price**: HK$38.70 - **Target Price**: HK$52.20 - **Expected Share Price Return**: 34.9% - **Expected Dividend Yield**: 2.6% - **Expected Total Return**: 37.4% [1] Industry Insights - **Industry**: Retail, specifically in the discount variety store segment - **Market Outlook**: Strong overseas market outlook for 4Q24 and 2025, supporting full-year guidance of 20-30% YoY sales growth and adjusted net profit (NP) of Rmb2.8 billion [1][2] Key Points from the Conference Call 4Q24 and 2025 Outlook - **Revenue Growth**: Management expects group revenue to grow 25-30% YoY in 4Q24, with overseas sales anticipated to grow 45-50% YoY [2] - **Store Expansion**: Plans to add 200-250 overseas points of sale (POS) in 4Q24, totaling approximately 700 POS for the full year [2] - **China Sales**: Anticipated low-teens YoY growth in China sales, with 76 new stores expected in 4Q24 [2] Growth Drivers for 2025 - **Sales Acceleration**: Expected acceleration in overseas YoY sales growth in 2025 due to same-store sales growth (SSSG) and store expansion [3] - **Gross Profit Margin (GPM)**: Anticipated YoY GPM expansion in 2025, driven by increased sales from overseas markets and intellectual property (IP) products [3] - **Operating Expenses**: Expected decrease in operating expenses to sales ratio in 2025, particularly for US direct retail stores [3] US Business Performance - **Unit Economics**: GPM for US direct retail operations is approximately 80%, with store-level EBIT margin in the low-20s% [4] - **Tax Credits**: Management expects to benefit from carry-forward tax credits due to historical accounting losses since 2017 [4] - **Margin Improvement**: Anticipated improvement in US EBIT margin in 2025 due to streamlined labor costs and optimized expenses [4] China Operations - **Sales Growth**: China sales grew 6% YoY in 3Q24, with a decline in traffic and mild average selling price (ASP) increase [5][7] - **SSSG Performance**: Better SSSG in Tier 1-2 cities compared to lower-tier cities, with a focus on increasing IP product sales in higher-tier cities [7] Risk Factors - **Competition**: Fierce industry competition poses a risk to growth [12][15] - **Global Expansion**: Weaker-than-expected global expansion could impact performance [12][15] - **Macroeconomic Environment**: Uncertain macro environment and shifts in consumer preferences are potential risks [12][15] - **Management of Distributors**: Weaker-than-anticipated management of distributors and retail partners could affect operations [12][15] Tariff Mitigation Strategies - **Product Sourcing**: Approximately 70% of products sold in the US are produced in China, with plans to source 50% from Southeast Asia, Japan, Korea, and the US if tariffs increase [8] Conclusion - MINISO Group is positioned for strong growth in both domestic and international markets, with a focus on expanding its store footprint and enhancing profitability through operational efficiencies. However, the company faces several risks, including competitive pressures and macroeconomic uncertainties. The outlook for 2025 appears optimistic, with expected acceleration in sales growth and margin improvements.

Summary of the Conference Call on Global Internet Valuations Industry Overview - The document pertains to the **Global Internet Industry**, with a focus on **Alibaba Group Holdings Ltd** and its valuation, while also mentioning **Ant Group Co., Ltd** indirectly [1] Core Insights and Arguments - The valuation updates for **Alibaba Group Holdings Ltd** do not consider the latest information regarding **Ant Group Co., Ltd**, indicating a potential gap in understanding the full impact of Ant Group's performance on Alibaba's valuation [1] - The document emphasizes that opinions and estimates are subject to change without notice, highlighting the volatility and uncertainty in the market [1] - It is noted that past performance is not indicative of future results, which is a critical reminder for investors regarding the inherent risks in the internet sector [1] Important but Overlooked Content - The document includes disclaimers about the suitability of securities and financial instruments for all investors, suggesting that individual circumstances and objectives must be considered before making investment decisions [1] - There is a strong emphasis on the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan data, particularly regarding its use in third-party AI systems, which may reflect broader concerns about data security and compliance in financial analysis [1] - The document lists various contact details for J.P. Morgan analysts across different regions, indicating a global perspective on internet valuations and the importance of regional insights in investment decisions [1]

M Update China Equity Strategy | Asia Pacific December 2, 2024 02:33 AM GMT Data NOW: China Five-factor Consumer Activity Z-Score vs. MSCI China Key Takeaways Consumer Z-score rebounded but is still negative. Passenger car and commodity retail improved slightly, partially thanks to the consumer goods trade-in program. Household loans and catering remained weak. Renewal/expansion of the trade-in program and other consumption stimulus are key to watch. Exhibit 1: China Five-factor Consumer Activity Z-Score vs ...

Summary of the Conference Call on China Steel Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the iron ore and steel market in China, featuring insights from Mr. Niu Wei, Investment Director at Huishi Asset Management [2][4]. Key Takeaways Potential Supply Reform - Mr. Niu anticipates a potential supply reform in the steel industry in the second half of 2025, although specifics regarding the timeline and scale remain uncertain [2][4]. - The reform is expected to be differentiated based on the ranking of steel mills, considering factors such as ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) criteria and product mix, unlike the strict production cuts seen in 2021 [2][4]. Steel Production Capacity - Actual steel output has been approximately 10% higher than the designed nameplate capacity over the years, but it is unclear whether the baseline for future reforms will be based on historical output or designed capacity [2][4]. Demand Trends - Demand for steel is showing marginal improvement, indicated by stable rebar inventory levels despite being in a traditionally slack season [4]. - The funding availability rate has improved, but the overall demand increase is too mild to trigger a significant rally in steel prices [4]. Export Outlook for 2025 - Mr. Niu is cautiously optimistic about steel exports in 2025, estimating volumes to remain flat year-over-year at around 100 million tons [5]. - This stability is attributed to the cost competitiveness of Chinese steel mills compared to international players, with near-term exports benefiting from front-loading demand [5]. Raw Material Price Trends - Prices for iron ore and coking coal are expected to remain stable, with a potential slight increase of approximately RMB 50 per ton for coking coal due to sufficient supply from both domestic and international sources [6]. Additional Insights - The preference for steel and cement sectors has been adjusted in light of potential supply-side policies, indicating a strategic shift in investment focus [2][4]. - The call highlighted the importance of monitoring ESG factors as they may influence future production policies and market dynamics [2][4]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the China steel industry, emphasizing potential reforms, demand trends, and raw material pricing.

Jefferies China (PRC) | Technology Equity Research December 2, 2024 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------|--------------------------------| | | | | | | | US Semi Export Controls - Better Than Feared, | | Table 1 - HBM Bandwidth ...

11 月 PMI 景气回升，如何解读 20241203 摘要 • 2024 年 12 月市场情绪高涨，三大股指上涨超过 1%，成交量回升至 1.8 万亿，消费板块及顺周期板块表现强劲，但银行板块下跌。 • 10 年期国债收益率跌破 2%，创历史新低，债券价格大幅上涨，但短期内 国债利率下行空间有限，投资者需注意风险。建议关注国开债 ETF （159,649）。 • 11 月制造业 PMI 连续三个月上升至 50.3%，供需两端景气度提升，但房地 产投资和开工端持续下行，外需不确定性较大，需关注内需改善的可持续 性。 • 12 月建议关注高端制造领域，特别是汽车板块，新能源汽车渗透率连续 四个月突破 50%，11 月预计零售量达 120-130 万辆，欧盟可能取消对华新 能源车关税，利好汽车产业链。 • 汽车板块表现强劲，整车、电源设备、汽车零部件净流入排名靠前，以旧 换新政策、新能源补贴政策及地方政府补贴持续推动市场增长。 • 新能源汽车竞争力持续提升，智能化成为竞争焦点，国产新势力在全球范 围内具备竞争力，但产业链曾出现产能过剩，目前正经历困境反转。 • 光伏行业进入磨底阶段，有望在 2025 年迎来拐点， ...

Key Points Company and Industry 1. **Company Background**: Xpeng Motors, a Chinese electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer, has evolved from a team focused on internet EVs for young people in first-tier cities to a leading new force in the EV industry, alongside NIO and Li Auto. [1] 2. **Company Culture**: Xpeng's core culture revolves around "sincerity," which has been consistently maintained even during periods of low sales, helping to build trust and win market share. [3] 3. **Management Changes**: The founder, He Xiaopeng, faced challenges during low sales and made significant adjustments to management, organization, and systems, leading to a turnaround. [4] 4. **Product Success**: The Mona product line's success is attributed to focusing on details, quickly responding to customer needs, and converting insights into action. [6] 5. **Company Name Change**: In the second half of 2024, Xpeng Motors renamed itself to Xpeng AI Motor Company, marking a new phase of development. [9] 6. **Innovation**: Xpeng P7 Plus, the company's latest model, is the world's first AI car, featuring larger space, standard AI autonomous driving, and continuous hardware and software upgrades. [10] 7. **AI Technology**: AI technology is expected to drive the next phase of the EV industry, leading to a new round of competition and emphasizing technological innovation over scale and brand advantage. [11] Industry Trends 1. **Market Growth**: The Chinese EV market has seen significant growth, with EVs accounting for over 50% of total sales. [11] 2. **Technological Advancements**: AI technology is expected to bring about rapid changes in the EV industry, surpassing traditional hardware advancements. [11] 3. **Competition**: The entry of global players like Tesla into the Chinese market is driving competition and innovation. [13] 4. **Global Expansion**: Xpeng Motors aims to expand globally and achieve win-win outcomes with international car companies. [8]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for Chinese domestic brands in the automotive market, suggesting potential investment opportunities due to their increasing market share and competitiveness [1][9]. Core Insights - The Chinese automotive market is expected to reach a record high of over 2.7 million units in 2024, with approximately 20% of this demand driven by policy incentives, leading to a potential demand vacuum early next year [1][2]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) has surpassed 50%, indicating a comprehensive transition across both tier-one and non-tier-one cities, although luxury vehicle prices are under downward pressure, with a potential price war anticipated after the Spring Festival [1][2]. - Chinese domestic brands are performing exceptionally well, capturing a significant market share and eroding the shares of joint venture and foreign brands, despite competition from new entrants like tech companies [1][4]. - Joint venture automakers are experiencing a continuous decline in sales and capacity utilization, necessitating a strategic repositioning towards personalized and high-end markets [1][5]. - The Chinese automotive industry is at the forefront of electrification, battery technology, and smart technology, boasting a substantial talent pool, yet the market capitalization of domestic brands does not align with their production and sales volumes, indicating investment opportunities [1][9]. - European automakers are facing intensified competition from Chinese brands, compliance pressures regarding carbon emissions, and geopolitical risks, leading to a forecast of sluggish growth and increased pricing pressures by 2025 [1][10]. Summary by Sections Current Market Situation - The current Chinese automotive market is stimulated by trade-in and scrappage subsidy policies, achieving a monthly sales figure of over 2.7 million units as of October 2024, with dealer inventories at a historical low of 1.1 months [2]. Long-term Outlook for Global Automakers - Long-term prospects for Chinese domestic brands appear promising, while Western and joint venture automakers face significant challenges, with an expected profit evaporation of over 40% by mid-2024 [3]. Performance of Domestic Brands - Domestic brands, particularly leading companies, are excelling in the current competitive environment, capturing nearly half of the market share, while foreign brands account for about one-third [4][8]. Trends for Joint Venture Automakers - Joint venture automakers have entered a phase of continuous sales decline since peaking in 2017, with a notable drop in capacity utilization from 73% in 2020 to 56% in 2023 for mid-to-high-end brands [5]. Future of New Energy Vehicles - The NEV penetration rate exceeding 50% indicates a broad societal transition, although short-term price environments may be challenging due to subsidy effects and anticipated price wars [6]. Role of China in the Global Supply Chain - China has transitioned from being the largest market and low-cost factory to a crucial R&D center and testing ground for global automakers, leading in electric vehicle production and battery technology [7]. Market Capitalization of Domestic Brands - Chinese domestic brands account for 20% of global automotive production and 60% of electric vehicle production, yet their market capitalization is only 10% of the total, suggesting significant investment potential [9]. European Automakers' Outlook for 2025 - European automakers are expected to face greater pricing pressures and challenges in meeting carbon emission compliance by 2025, with overall production growth primarily driven by domestic manufacturers [10][11]. Short-term Sales Outlook for New Energy Vehicles - The current strong sales are largely due to subsidy policies, which may not be sustainable, leading to a cautious outlook for NEV sales in the upcoming year [12][19]. Investor Sentiment and Stock Performance - Recent significant stock price increases for some companies may indicate overly optimistic market expectations, necessitating caution among investors [13][17]. Challenges for Joint Venture Brands - Joint venture brands are experiencing structural decline, with state-owned enterprises also facing challenges in regaining market share amid the rise of domestic brands [14]. Export Growth as a Potential Driver - While increased exports could expand market size, challenges such as tariffs and inventory management issues may complicate this growth [15]. Impact of Subsidy Policies - The current trade-in subsidy policies have stimulated demand, but their short-term effects may lead to unrealistic market expectations [16][18]. Price War Expectations - There is a growing concern about the potential for a price war, with many investors currently underestimating the risks associated with this scenario [17]. Future of Government Stimulus Policies - Government stimulus policies are expected to continue, but their effectiveness may diminish, leading to reduced subsidy levels in the coming year [18]. Consumer Behavior and Market Demand - Anticipated consumer behavior regarding subsidies may lead to a decrease in demand in early next year, as buyers may choose to wait for better deals [19][20]. Long-term Competitiveness of Chinese Brands - Chinese brands are making significant strides in innovation, particularly in electrification and smart technology, positioning themselves competitively against established foreign brands [21]. Integration Opportunities Among New Energy Players - The current landscape does not favor large-scale mergers and acquisitions among new energy players, with many struggling brands likely to exit the market [22].

Key Points Industry/Company Involved - **Industry**: Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in the Chinese stock market - **Company**: Not specified, but the analysis focuses on the broader context of the Chinese stock market and M&A trends Core Views and Arguments - **Policy-Driven**: The current wave of M&A in China is driven by policy relaxation and is closely related to the active capital market policy. The "M&A 66 Articles" and the statement from the Political Bureau meeting provide policy support and are expected to last for several years [1]. - **Valuation Enhancement**: M&A can effectively enhance stock market valuation by telling a story of incremental growth, achieving rapid growth for existing companies. Historical experience shows that it is an important theme for driving the bull market in the stock index [1]. - **American Experience**: The five waves of M&A in the United States were all related to economic prosperity, policy relaxation, and industrial cycles. The direction of M&A changed from horizontal to vertical, diversification to cross-border M&A, and finally promoted the increase in stock market valuation and performance [1]. - **Chinese Waves**: China has experienced three waves of M&A, showing a "loose-tight-loose-tight" policy cycle and obvious industry rotation characteristics. The scale of M&A is closely related to the macro economy and policy [1]. - **Performance Impact**: Successful M&A can significantly improve the ROE and stock price of enterprises, but high premium acquisition risks should be警惕ed. The direction of M&A should choose emerging fields that conform to the development trend of the industry [1]. - **Current Opportunities**: With the suspension of IPOs and macro liquidity relaxation, M&A has become the main theme of the market. Focus on opportunities for vertical integration in emerging fields such as AI, Huawei supply chain, satellite internet [1]. - **Risk Alerts**: Be alert to potential leveraged buyouts, speculative behavior, and debt risks in the later stage. Be cautious in selecting M&A targets, controlling premium rates, and focusing on the fundamental and profitability of enterprises [1]. Other Important Content - **Reasons for Studying M&A**: The study of M&A is important because of its significant impact on market and corporate valuation. The current wave of M&A is considered an important opportunity [2]. - **Impact of M&A**: M&A can effectively enhance stock market valuation by telling a story of incremental growth, achieving rapid growth for existing companies. This is the fastest way to achieve a significant increase in stock market valuation and is conducive to promoting the establishment of a characteristic valuation system in China [3]. - **American M&A Waves**: The five major M&A waves in the United States occurred in the 1890s, 1920s, 1960s, 1980s, and 1990s. The common characteristics of these waves include economic cycle, policy cycle, and industrial cycle [4]. - **Chinese M&A Waves**: China has experienced three major M&A waves since the reform and opening up. These waves have obvious policy attributes and industry characteristics [9]. - **Impact on Corporate Performance and Stock Market**: Historical experience shows that M&A can promote the growth of corporate performance and the prosperity of the stock market. However, not all M&A will bring profit improvement. Successful M&A should conform to the direction of policy and industrial development, such as emerging technology fields or industries with high profitability [11]. - **Opportunities in the Current Environment**: With the suspension of IPOs, macro liquidity relaxation, and active capital markets, there are no significant negative risks. It is likely to become an annual-level main theme. Focus on opportunities for vertical integration in new productivity fields such as AI, Huawei supply chain, satellite internet, and low-altitude economy [13].

捅破窗户纸，进入"1"时代 20241202 摘要 • 10 年期中国国债收益率跌破 2.0%，市场对收益率进入"1 时代"预期增 强，但实际操作仍谨慎。 • 市场先生理论视角下，投资者情绪乐观，但仓位仍低，公募基金和保险机 构等核心客户仓位回升缓慢。 • 10 年期国债收益率下行空间乐观，但 30 年期国债受期限利差和供给放量 不确定性影响，投资者态度谨慎。 • 建议未来一段时间内逐步增加仓位，密切关注长短端利率曲线变动和经济 预期变化，并根据日线级别 K 线进行线性外推，灵活调整止盈止损策略。 • 买方对止盈问题存在分歧，但考虑到央行对长端利率的认可和政策面风险 可控，不必过度担忧，可根据盘面灵活调整策略。 • 过去一年多市场投资者逐渐成熟，但市场行情远未结束，需谨慎把握时机。 • 未来一两个月可能出现债券利好因素，如预防性降息，但需关注政策变化 和市场情绪波动，避免非理性操作。 Q&A 2025 年债券市场的年度策略转化有哪些关键点？ 2025 年债券市场的年度策略转化主要包括以下几个关键点：首先，10 年期中国 国债收益率有效跌破 2.0%，收盘时达到 1.98%。这一现象表明市场对 10 年期国 债 ...