付鹏最新-A 股行情后面怎么走，政策红利与投资机遇 20241127 摘要 • A 股市场在经历大涨大跌后进入缩量整理阶段，临近 2024 年末及 2025 年初，市场走向存在不确定性，但政策效应逐步显现，或将迎来新的投 资机会。 • 密集出台的政策旨在解决有效需求不足，降低存量房贷利率、发放消费 券等措施试图提振需求，化解债务压力，促进经济企稳回升。 • 政策组合拳提振了市场信心，中证 A500 指数短期内大幅上涨后进入平 稳整理，成交额维持高位，显示市场参与热情依然高涨，沪深两市有望 震荡向上。 • 当前 A 股整体估值仍具有吸引力，中证 A500 指数 PETTM 约为 14 倍， 远低于标普 500 和日经 225，处于价值洼地，是布局 A 股权益投资的好 时机。 • 宏观政策传导存在滞后性，市场对预期反应迅速，未来一段时间内资本 市场将继续受到支持，但需关注政策效果的实际落地和经济基本面的变 化。 • 未来需重点关注中央财政加杠杆态势、美国大选对中美关系的影响以及 国内政策对资产回报率的提升效果，这些因素将影响市场走势。 • 中证 A500ETF 产品受到积极反馈，其覆盖中小市值股票，能够更好地 表 ...

国联证券不对任何人因使用会议内容而引致的任何损失承担任何责任未经国联证券事先书面许可任何机构或个人不得以任何形式复制、刊载、转载、转发、引用本次会议内容否则由此造成的一切后果及法律责任由该机构或个人承担本公司保留追究其法律责任的权利 尊敬的各位投资人各位嘉宾大家下午好首先非常感谢大家在周六下午抽出时间来参加我们国内医药这次关于PDL1双马点的这么一个药物在4000起免疫治疗热场的这个深度报告的一个解读 首先解释一下为什么我们会针对这个方向写这么一篇深度其实我们也是在今年在康康生物包括他的以我其丹康以及像彭米茨生物的PM8002这两个都是进入了全球要不是三期或者是已经上市的这么一个阶段其实随着这些代表性的产品 有这个中榜的临床数据的公布之后呢其实我们明显是可以看到哈在全球是掀起了一个以PD1或者PDR1作为一个我们作为一个股价哈去和其他的一些把点去进行一个协同啊 去开发相关的一些双靶点的这个药物是在全球掀起了一个开发的热潮那么其实我们也是想借由这篇深度去进一步来判断处于全球第一梯队的这些PT1或者PTR1这个双靶的药物到底有哪些那么比较热门的或者说最热门的这些靶点组合有哪些 那么我们也是希望说通过这次的这么一个 ...

各位投资者大家好欢迎来到我们两荣半月谈新商策略会的现场我们每两周会举办一次邀请业内大咖以及行业专家为我们带来当下最热话题的探讨和思考本期呢是第73期这期我们邀请到的是我们中心箭头资深策略分析师夏凡杰老师目前呢大家也看得出来市场经历了大概两周的一个调整 然后实际上的从盘面上看有很多次的一个拉伸的动作包括今天也是一个拉伸然后呢在整个回调期呢热门的题材是不断的涌现的 比如说像东方系这种玄学的一个话题的一个炒作比如像IP概念很明显啊就市场的资金的一个活跃度是很高的哪怕是在回调期哪怕是从两周前的三千五百点回调到现在的三千三百多点市场的依然存在着不小的一个赚钱效应所以说这就是牛市的一个特征 但从结构上看是有一定的变化的大家都知道这个微小盘的风险包括像这些风险其实都深入人心的然后像既有股的一个布局也需要政策上给予一些强心剂所以说对于未来行情如何布局包括2025年我们怎么看是我们当下投资人最关注的一个话题因此这一期我们就邀请到了我们的下半截老师为我们进行一个展望 夏老师硕士毕业于武汉大学金融工程专业曾经是安信证券高级策略分析师长期从事市场策略专题研究以及金股配置方面的工作是金财富水晶球还有金油奖的策略分析师好的 夏老师现在可 ...

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Summary of H World Group Limited (HTHT) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: H World Group Limited (HTHT / 1179 HK) - **Industry**: Hotel Operations and Franchising - **Date of Report**: November 27, 2024 Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - **3Q24 Results**: Total revenue increased by 2.4% YoY, which was 2% behind consensus but in line with estimates [8][9] - **Revenue Segmentation**: - Legacy Huazhu revenue grew by 1% YoY, while Legacy-DH grew by 8.9% YoY [9] - RevPAR for Legacy Huazhu declined by 8.1% YoY to RMB256, with ADR down by about 7% YoY to RMB301 [9] - **Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA**: Approximately RMB2.1 billion, below consensus estimates of RMB2.3 billion [9] - **4Q24 Revenue Guidance**: Expected to increase by 1%-5% YoY, which is below market consensus of 6.6% [9] Market Outlook - **RevPAR Expectations**: - Anticipated to decline by mid-single digits YoY in 4Q24 due to soft business travel compared to leisure travel [9] - Expected to stabilize in 2025, with market share gains amid rising hotel chain penetration [9] - **Hotel Openings**: More than 2,400 hotels expected to open in 2025, exceeding prior expectations [9] Strategic Initiatives - **Membership Expansion**: Plans to expand into more regions and enhance partnerships with airlines and ride-hailing services [9] - **Quality of Hotel Supply**: Focus on high-quality hotels, with a reduction in low-quality hotel supply [9] - **Asset-Light Model**: Continued pursuit of an asset-light model, with closures expected to exceed the first half of the year but remain below third-quarter levels [9] Valuation and Price Target - **Current Price Target**: DCF-based price target lowered to USD 45 / HKD 36 from USD 50 / HKD 39, reflecting a +36% upside potential [9][21] - **Risks**: Key risks include slower-than-expected RevPAR recovery, slower EBITDA margin recovery, and changes in the macro environment [9][60] Sustainability and ESG Considerations - **Top Material Issues**: - Ecological impacts due to tourism and waste generation [24] - Labor practices, emphasizing the need for a healthy working environment [24] - **Company Targets**: Focus on reducing environmental footprint and contributing to a low-carbon society [24] Catalysts for Growth - **RevPAR Growth**: Stronger-than-expected RevPAR growth could act as a catalyst [25] - **Hotel Development Pipeline**: A robust hotel development pipeline is anticipated to support growth [25] Additional Important Information - **Market Capitalization**: Approximately USD 10.5 billion [9] - **Stock Performance**: 52-week high-low range of USD 42.98 - USD 27.03 [9] - **Analyst Ratings**: Maintained a "Buy" rating based on the company's growth potential and market positioning [9][21] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call regarding H World Group Limited, highlighting its financial performance, market outlook, strategic initiatives, valuation, sustainability efforts, and potential growth catalysts.

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Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **China Economics** sector, particularly the upcoming **Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC)** scheduled for December 12, 2023, which will set the economic priorities for 2025 [10][14]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **GDP Growth Target**: Policymakers are likely to maintain the "around 5%" target for real GDP growth in 2025, with the target for 2024 appearing achievable due to policy efforts since mid-year [10][14][15]. 2. **Inflation and Deflation**: Ending deflation is not expected to be a priority. The current policy system lacks a designated ministry for price stability, and the best outcome may be a focus on stabilizing overall price levels [15][17]. 3. **Reactive Policy Mode**: The policy shift observed since September is real but does not indicate a move towards a proactive policy mode. Policymakers are showing urgency to address economic slowdown but are unlikely to adopt a more aggressive stance [17][21]. 4. **External Uncertainties**: Elevated uncertainties regarding external factors, such as US tariffs, may limit clarity for policymakers. The CEWC is expected to highlight these risks without providing specific reaction plans [19][53]. 5. **Monetary Policy Constraints**: The supportive monetary policy stance is anticipated to continue, with expectations of 50 basis points rate cuts in 2025. The current net interest margin (NIM) is at an all-time low of 1.53%, which may constrain monetary policy [22][32]. 6. **Fiscal Policy Outlook**: A supportive fiscal policy tone is expected, with a projected general government deficit of approximately RMB 11.6 trillion for 2025, an increase from RMB 8.96 trillion in 2024. This could lead to a deficit exceeding 3% of GDP [33][34]. 7. **Consumer Stimulus Initiatives**: There is a consensus that fiscal stimulus will focus more on consumption in 2025, with potential areas for funding including trade-in programs, childbirth subsidies, and targeted cash transfers [37][38]. 8. **Property Market Support**: The housing policy aims to stabilize the market, with government buybacks seen as an effective tool to address excess supply. However, the balance between funding support and moral hazard remains a challenge [48][49]. 9. **Response to US Tariffs**: The CEWC is likely to reiterate the commitment to opening up and may respond symbolically to US tariffs, but no concrete plans are expected. The focus will remain on boosting domestic demand in light of external pressures [53][55]. Additional Important Insights - **Local Government Incentives**: The effectiveness of policy easing may depend on local governments' willingness to implement central directives, which has historically varied [20]. - **Economic Diplomacy**: The US tariff threats could reshape China's trade relations, potentially expanding trade negotiations with other partners [55]. - **Monitoring Future Developments**: Key areas to watch include the implementation of announced policies, the impact of monetary easing, and the effectiveness of consumption support measures as 2025 approaches [58][59]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding China's economic landscape as discussed in the conference call, highlighting the interplay between domestic policies and external challenges.