牛市还在吗？科技是否已见顶 20241124 摘要 • A 股市场短期震荡，但牛市未结束，未来上涨需等待基本面、政策或流动 性催化。 • 建议投资者关注成长性板块，特别是科技和部分核心资产；短期可考虑低 估值国企，但长期仍看好成长股。 • 政策和流动性宽松方向未变，信用筑底是中期市场走势核心逻辑，政策发 力将提升 A 股估值。 • 市场误解增量政策缺失，实际上处于空窗期，保增长政策仍大概率进一步 加码。 • 经济修复力度不足，实体经济修复尚不牢靠，这将促使国内保增长政策继 续保持积极态势。 • 中美博弈加剧，对我国外需形成压力，这将促使国内保增长政策继续保持 积极态势。 • 微观流动性近期走弱，但机构资金回升，年底结算后大资金或加大配置， 总体资金依然充裕。 Q&A 当前 A 股市场的走势如何？牛市是否仍在继续？ 短期内，A 股市场可能会延续震荡的情形，预计未来一两周内仍需盘整，甚至可 能出现小幅上探。然而，我们不认为会出现明显的大幅下跌，更加不认为牛市已 经结束。当前的震荡盘整更多是等待基本面或政策和流动性方面的催化。一旦这 些因素发力，行情有望开启新一轮更强劲的上涨。 后续行业配置方向应如何选择？ 调整之 ...

电能的结构会好一些再加上我们刚刚说到的这个业绩我们四季度的业绩应该会非常确定性的比较好那从这几个维度来讲的话呢我们认为其实公用事业整个一个当然本周还有一个广东的这个电力的这个强协合同签订的这个文件出来了那这个文件呢其实按照之前的想法呢可能是会对电仓有利但是从这个文件的发布来看的话呢 表现的不是那么的明显大概就是把电量这一块提高了一些就是提高大概500亿度占比10%出头这块的话其实还是一个比较好的事情但是对于对于就是叫什么就是受电公司的要求包括受电公司如果说电量迁的不够多然后又会有存法 惩罚的话这个事情最终收益又归所有的用户所有这件事情我觉得其实是一个也不是说不公正就是一般性这个结果就对于电厂来讲其实就不那么有利了所以对于广东来讲这件事情肯定不算是什么利好我们本来期待有个利好这个事不算什么利好现在就是要看怎么去如果说电厂在这件事情上依然保持一个比较低的价格 去跟用户去签的话呢那电厂就吃了底底的这个就肯定赚不到钱了广东的电厂啊那对于全国其他地方的电厂呢整体的这个情况呢包括供需的格局呢也比广东好因为广东有一个巨大的缺陷啊就是广东这个最大的树电公司火电厂是他们的本属企业啊占比占比非常的高所以呢嗯只要广东省政府按着他让 ...

非常感谢大家宝贵的时间来参加这一场的中大推荐然后我们也是在这周日会有两个比较重要的推荐方向一个就是在明年我们比较看好的价格谈金的品种六福然后以及我们会阐述一下真正我们认为长期涨价的一个 节点应该还是在明年旺季三季度之后但是我们为什么会选择在这个时间点里去做一个推荐然后第二个呢是在今天晚上的八点我们会有一场归探户籍的这个推荐呢全产业链的一个推荐给大家做一个这个更新那也在开始之前呢我先简单的说一下 这一轮里面呢其实我们在选明年的这个方向的时候是遵循了两个大的原则一个呢仍然是需求的逻辑大于供给一个呢就是我们看好技术创新带来的超额呢大于引力修复这个逻辑 那在这两个原则里面呢我们仍然是对明年各个细分赛道的需求进行一个排序那从分数的角度上楚和丰电呢我们给予了50左右的一个增长然后第二档呢是锂电我们给了25的增长 但是很明显我们在这一个多月或者是说接近两个月的时间里面对理电的发生的力度推荐的力度变大这个原因呢其实是跟预期走的就比如说我认为市场的预期对光伏对路峰的明年的增速在10到15然后对理电的增速在25剩下的储和风电呢大概在50左右但从基本面的变化来看 反而我们认为李电似乎有可能就是更乐观而这个更乐观的来源于两点一个呢就 ...

Summary of Starlink Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call discusses Starlink, a satellite internet service provided by SpaceX, which is particularly competitive in remote areas and regions with weak infrastructure due to its low latency and high-speed capabilities [1][2]. Core Points and Arguments - **Service Performance**: Starlink outperforms traditional home WiFi in download speeds, achieving 147 Mbps compared to 76 Mbps for home WiFi, although it may experience slight lag during high-bandwidth applications like video conferencing [7][9]. - **Pricing Structure**: Starlink offers three service types: residential, mobile, and maritime, with significant price differences. The residential version is relatively cost-effective, while the mobile version is more expensive than local 5G packages [11][13]. - **Market Value**: The value of Starlink lies in its ability to provide internet access in remote areas, emergency communications, and specialized industries such as military, education, and healthcare. The potential for data analysis from the vast amounts of data generated globally is also highlighted [1][12]. - **Future Growth Potential**: As the number of satellites increases, costs are expected to decrease, enhancing Starlink's market penetration, especially in developing regions like Africa, the Middle East, and South America [1][14]. - **Government Collaboration**: Elon Musk's business philosophy emphasizes collaboration with governments and focuses on AI and experiential fields, aligning with Starlink's strategic deployment [2]. Additional Important Insights - **User Experience**: Starlink's app provides a user-friendly interface to monitor network status, device connections, and signal quality, enhancing user experience [5]. - **Technical Advantages**: Starlink's low Earth orbit satellites, positioned about 550 km above the Earth, ensure low latency (20-40 ms) and high download speeds (50-150 Mbps), making it advantageous in areas lacking traditional infrastructure [6]. - **Product Recognition**: Starlink has gained market recognition in parts of Europe, with good offline sales, although user adoption rates still need improvement [1][14]. - **Future Satellite Deployment**: Musk plans to deploy a total of 12,000 satellites, with over 7,000 already launched, which will further improve service quality and reduce costs [17].

终结的那么我给大家举个举个例子比如上一次政策啊因为我们接下去12月份马上就重要性的会议了你到底是先这个没有任何预期还是先预期乐观还是先预期悲观你往下跌其实就是预期悲观对吧那么我们为什么要这样因为我们要知道上一次是11月8号人大会议就是政策会议啊市场 是相对来说比较强势的因为大家记得吗就是说十月的时候国庆节一旦开下来这个这个高开机之后啊市场都很担心A回去那个时候是从第二周开始我跟大家讲就是说是翻越青山牛还在因为那个位置很厉害了大家还有印象三千六百多点掉到三千一百多点那很多人是要A回去好就是在那个时间点十月第二周从那个时间点到十月初 这个市场很强的从三千一百多点最后到最近到将近三千五那么这个是什么他是体现出对这个十一月八号这个会议这个政策会议的预期很高所以他走势很强那么这里面到底是什么问题因为你预期太高你预期太高之后你没办法超你预期所以他做一个划债你没办法去撤去因为市场恨不得就是说十月八号把所有的事情都给做了啊把那个那个消费券都给发了对吧 这个这个所有政策最好是在11月8号全部子弹全部打出来啊那么当然这不可能所以呢11月8号说白了因为市场是这样的预期他就没有办法超市场预期只能预期啊呃尤其低于外资预期或者低于被外资 ...

各位投资者朋友大家晚上好欢迎大家来参加中正周周谈我是今天的主持人曹杨接下来第一个环节也是由我给大家分享一下最近美元走势偏强同价到底受到了什么样的影响那么在未来一个月或者一个季度这种短周期我们怎么去看待各种因素的这种变化以及对于价格会有什么样的一些思考 接下来我给大家做一个非常详细的一个分享首先的话最近确实我们看到以铜为主的有色金属整体都面临了这个一轮相对幅度大一些的这样一个回调当然这个回调的话我们更多的理解为就是短期的话就是宏观因素给到的这种向下的压力相对的大一点当然市场目前在宏观和基本面维度都有一些分歧当然我会 给大家讲一下这些分歧和我们对分歧的这样一些看法首先的话就是我们来讲一下就是宏观的因素也就是说最近的话其实我们能感受到两个东西比较的强一个是美元强另外呢是美债收益率也很强这两个强势的点给到了整个有色金属比较大的压力尤其是红这种金融属性相对比较强的一些品种 主要的问题我觉得有几点第一点就是说在特朗普当选美国总统过后市场对于特朗普交易的这样一个第一个阶段也就是说更多的是反映了对美国经济的一些正向的这样一种预期这个是美元走强的一个比较明显的一个炒作的基础第二个就是最近确实也有很多地缘冲突的这样一个升级那么由 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Debt Market Impact Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the impact of the current debt restructuring on the debt market, particularly focusing on government bonds and local government special bonds [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Reaction to Debt Restructuring** The impact of the current debt restructuring has been largely absorbed by the market, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating between 2.05% and 2.1%, indicating rational expectations regarding fiscal stimulus [1]. 2. **Shift in Market Concerns** Market concerns have shifted from stable growth to supply shocks in the funding environment, with a significant issuance of special refinancing bonds expected to exceed 400 billion yuan and local government special bonds projected at 1-2 trillion yuan, causing temporary disturbances in the funding landscape [1][3]. 3. **Temporary Nature of Disturbances** The disturbances caused by special refinancing bonds are not expected to be persistent, primarily affecting the short term. The overall funding situation will depend on the central bank's liquidity provision and interbank funding consumption [1][4]. 4. **Differential Performance of Long-term and Short-term Rates** Long-term rates, such as the 30-year government bond, have performed poorly due to uncertainties surrounding future economic growth and fiscal policies, while short-term rates remain relatively stable [1][5]. 5. **Current Credit Situation** The current credit environment is not optimistic, as the issuance of local government bonds has not significantly boosted overall credit trends. This is attributed to a focus on high-quality development and strict regulation of hidden debts by local governments [1][6]. 6. **Expectations for Deficit Rate** The expected deficit rate for next year is projected to be between 3.5% and 4%, which is not anticipated to have a significant impact on the market as long as it remains within this range [1][11]. 7. **Challenges in the Government Bond Market** The supply of government bonds is manageable, but the difficulty in absorption is notable. Factors such as land transfer revenues and the attitude towards local credit will be critical in determining future fiscal efforts [1][12]. 8. **Impact of Policy on Economic Fundamentals** Since the end of September, policy measures have had some positive effects on economic fundamentals, with retail sales growth returning to 4.8%. However, real estate development investment remains weak, indicating a cautious outlook from the real estate sector [1][13]. 9. **Credit Bond Market Conditions** The credit bond market requires maintaining liquidity, with institutions remaining cautious due to regulatory uncertainties and local industry transitions. Short-duration bonds are recommended for better management of risks [1][16]. Other Important Content - **Investor Focus Areas** Investors are advised to pay attention to the central bank's monetary policy adjustments, the progress of local government special refinancing, and the overall credit attitude of local governments to navigate future market changes [1][15]. - **Long-term Bond Concerns** Concerns regarding long-term rates include the potential increase in the central deficit rate and the lengthening of special refinancing bond maturities, which could negatively impact the 30-year government bond [1][9]. - **Future of 30-Year Government Bonds** The 30-year government bond has shown poor performance recently, with expectations that its overall performance may not improve significantly unless it reaches a certain yield level, at which point its value proposition may enhance [1][10].

声明播报完毕后主持人可直接开始发言根据证券期货投资者适当性管理办法本次电话会议仅服务于国联证券研究所白名单客户本次会议在任何情形下都不构成对会议参加者的投资建议相关人员应自主作出投资决策并自行承担投资风险国联证券不对任何人因使用会议内容而引致的任何损失承担任何责任 未经国联证券事先书面许可任何机构或个人不得以任何形式复制、刊载、转载、转发引用本次会议内容否则由此造成的一切后果及法律责任由该机构或个人承担本公司保留追究其法律责任的权利 各位投资者大家晚上好欢迎参加我们国联大化工的农药行业专家交流电话会议我是国联大化工技术化工首席张伟航那我们今天分析师老师孙起昊老师也作为主持人今天我们非常荣幸的邀请到了咱们这个中益农药原药贸易专家刘总啊来为我们进行这个交流那么因为农药原药它的种类是非常多啊那么今天呢我们主要是侧重于这个杀菌剂和杀虫剂 也就是最近市场上大家关注度比较高的一些品种啊比如说像杀军记里面的百军轻、戴森猛心、丙流军作、秘军纸还有杀戎记里面的比如说我们看到甲烟、阿威军素、康宽、橘纸这些做一个基本面的一个梳理和更新那么首先呢是我们做几个提问就是请刘总就是介绍一下就是首先是 虾军记里面的白军轻啊就是说想跟刘总先请 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|-----------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|--------------|---------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | | | 多边世界直面特朗普变数 | 18 26 | 雪松控股涉诈终局 | 32 | 大超市换东家 | 57 76 | | 大健康诈骗案虚实 由 | | 百亿边贸补窟窿 | 52 | 苦战血糖监测 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ◆12 ◆12 ) ◆ 15 ) | 105 105 105 20 20 105 | A股直播时代 直播平台导流、荐股屡禁不止, 塑造 A 股投资 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Contents 2 Robeco | 2025 Outlook 1. Introduction 3 2. Three scenarios 6 3. Financial markets outlook 12 4. Signposts 2025 21 5. Sustainable investing: Eye on the longer-term prize 23 6. Embracing transition investing 27 The 2025 Outlook has been compiled by Peter van der Welle (Multi-Asset Strategist), Rachel Whittaker (Head of ...