更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 www.jpmorganmarkets.com Mainland China/HK Property Marketing feedback from Mainland China - more conservative than expected We recently met with investors in Shanghai, Guangzhou & Shenzhen. General views on the Mainland Chinese property market are more conservative than we expected, with most investors expecting property sales to drop another 5-15% Y/Y in 2025 (although tier-1 cities may stabilize). Investors do not seem overly excited about inventory purchase as they do not thi ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 22 November 2024 | 3:20PM EST Weekly Fund Flows Post-Election Sector Flows Global fund flows, week ending November 20 n Flows into mutual funds and related investment products showed net inflows into both equities and bonds. n Net flows into global equity funds slowed in the week ending November 20, on the back of more normalized flows into US equities (+$14bn vs +$53bn in the previous week). Elsewhere in G10, flows were broadly negative. Meanwhile in EM, mainland China continue ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 特朗普内阁成员画像 东北证券策略组 袁野(S0550524030002) 2024年11月 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 2 整理内容： ➢ 总统基本上需要负责约4,000个政府职位的任命，这个过程可能需时数个月 ➢ 本报告整理特朗普已提名的内阁成员，以及竞逐热门职位的候选人名单 共同特征： ➢ 服从和忠于特朗普是获得职位的重要资格 ➢ 意识形态以美国利益优先 ➢ 多为非建制派共和党人士，部分为非专业背景 ➢ 政治强人，有想法，有激情，有担当 任免影响： ➢ 降低来自民主党和共和党党内建制派的政治阻力，提高特朗普政治地位，便于后续政策推进 ➢ 整合美国国内资源和力量，朝着一个方向努力，增强政府执行力 ➢ 选择对所监管的部门怀有敌意的领导人有助于从内部削弱、冻结和瓦解保守派不喜欢的政策， 里根、小布什总统均有采用这一策略 提名人选普遍政策主张： ➢ 多认为中国是美国主要竞争对手，主张对华强硬，涉及经济制裁、限制投资、技术遏制 后续关注： ➢ 目前尚未任命的贸易代表和证监会主 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry and Company Involved - The focus is on the military aviation industry, specifically the J35 series fighter jets and their associated supply chain companies, including 中航沈飞 (AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation), 中航高科 (AVIC High-Tech), and 光威副财 (Guangwei Composite). Core Points and Arguments 1. **J35 Series Fighter Jets Development** The J35 series, including both naval and air force variants, is entering a critical phase of rapid production capacity increase following its debut at the Zhuhai Airshow, marking a significant milestone in military aviation development [1][14]. 2. **Beneficiary Companies in the Supply Chain** Key companies benefiting from the J35 series include 中航沈飞, 中航高科, and 光威副财, which are positioned well within the supply chain due to their significant revenue contributions related to the J35 production [2][15]. 3. **Historical Context and Significance of 中航沈飞** 中航沈飞 is highlighted as a historical cornerstone in China's fighter jet development, with a legacy tied to national defense and technological innovation [3][4]. 4. **Comparison with U.S. Fighter Jets** The J35 is compared to the U.S. F-35, noting that the demand for the F-35 is significantly higher than that for the F-22, suggesting a robust market potential for the J35 as well [5][12]. 5. **Production and Cost Efficiency** The production lifecycle of military aircraft, including the J35, is expected to follow a pattern where increased production leads to reduced costs over time, similar to trends observed with the F-35 [11][12]. 6. **Future Market Expansion** The J35 series is anticipated to expand into various market segments, including potential export versions, which could enhance its market reach and profitability [9][14]. 7. **Technological Advancements and Innovations** The development of the J35 is supported by advancements in materials and manufacturing processes, particularly in composite materials, which are expected to play a crucial role in the aircraft's performance and cost structure [21][24]. 8. **Investment Opportunities** The report identifies 中航高科 as a key player with potential for significant growth, particularly in the aerospace materials sector, driven by the increasing demand for advanced materials in military applications [20][25]. 9. **Market Sentiment and Stock Performance** The stock performance of companies involved in the J35 supply chain has shown volatility, with potential for recovery as production ramps up and market conditions improve [14][26]. 10. **Macro Industry Trends** The military aviation industry is currently in a transitional phase, with expectations of a shift from weak to strong demand as formal contracts are established and production accelerates [29][30]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Cultural and Historical Significance** The connection between the J35's development and national pride, including the commemoration of military sacrifices, is emphasized as a motivational factor for the workforce [4][19]. 2. **Strategic Positioning of Companies** The strategic positioning of companies like 中航高科 within the supply chain is crucial for maintaining competitive advantages and ensuring high-quality production standards [22][25]. 3. **Long-term Vision for Military Aviation** The discussion includes a long-term vision for the evolution of military aviation, including the potential transition to unmanned systems and the integration of advanced technologies [18][19]. 4. **Regulatory and Policy Environment** The impact of government policies on the military aviation sector, including support for state-owned enterprises and the encouragement of mergers and acquisitions, is noted as a significant factor influencing market dynamics [22][29].

各位尊敬的投资者大家晚上好我是民生证券策略分析师摩依林感谢大家来参加我们的 应该说从两周以前我们开始去提示市场的风险然后上周开始关注整个的风格的切换现在应该说市场在沿着这条轨道前进确实周五的调整大家也都很惊慌我们的理解就是 结构性的下跌可能还会持续但是对于指数层面也许不用过度去悲观可能更多的是风格切换为主吧但是前期的这个领长的这个结构的可持续性确实就不太行了这个是你需要去警惕的地方但是是不是整个市场不行呢未必至少会有一些结构性的亮点 呃出来啊第一个呢就是我们来看一下上周发生了什么就是呃万德权威的成交量呢应该说在进一步的下降他就是进入了一个呃降波交易对吧降波动率降成交量啊就市场呢从一个极度亢奋开始萎缩50ETF的呃整个的隐含波动率呢跟我们上周判断一样基本上就明显的呃下降啊然后然后呢呃 在这几天的虽然每天都收红就是在二三四但是基本上都是委托他拿回来的这种博弈的性质非常明显但到了周五其实基本上博弈的可能必要性也就下降了最终周五可能就是这样的一个资金大家也放弃了挣扎吧 如果你从大类资产来讲因为大家会说是不是特朗普交易或者是全球的风险资产出现了问题但其实就是当天美元指数黄金也都没有出现明显的下跌黄金也没涨美元指数也没涨 ...

那么各位投资者,大家下午好,我是浙商金属分析师王岚清,由我今天给大家解析一下关于智利这个盐湖这一块,关于碳酸链的一个供给情况。那么首先,我们来看一下智利这样一个政策,那么政策端的话呢,其实整体意义, 所以这一块是往国有化以国有控股往这个方向去发展那么目前的话在未有正式的这样一个国有化的条款生效之前那么它仍然是实现了1983年的一个新矿业法那么这个规定的话是制定的矿产资源是国家所有基本上目前来看的话主要生产的这个阿卡曼盐湖上SQM和亚宝主要是签订长期租约的方式并不是拥有实际的矿权是这样一个情况 那么目前其实自立这一块整体其实拥有比较多的这样一个盐湖除了迪加达喀玛这个全球与米子浓度最高这个储量最大这样一个非常成熟的盐湖之外包括这个马尔利康港然后拍的那儿然后这几个盐湖其实非常多其实不少那么为什么没有得到一个 很快地看出来,我觉得从股权结构也好,被偷的股东的这样一个意愿也好,他们整体其实并不是像我们中国这么激进地想把这个盐湖这么快地给做出来。因为其实我们可以看到,在阿塔喀玛这一块,就是说在阿塔喀玛正在生产的这样一个盐湖,它的破产的力度实际上并不是说特别特别大,我觉得,因为SQM其实也是稳扎稳打,那么对于亚宝来说的话, ...

Hello, host. You can start now. Thank you. Thank you. Hello, can you hear me now? Yes, we can hear you. Oh, okay. Good morning, everyone. I'm sorry about that. The back-end meeting assistant made a mistake. He didn't turn on the full sound. Can the experts hear my voice now? Yes. Okay, let's get started. Before we start, I'd like to say a few words. I still don't want to have any records or recordings spread out. Then the expert side, we may have some questions to ask you first. The first one we want to kno ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook for the electronics sector, highlighting recovery trends and growth potential in various sub-sectors. Core Insights - The electronics sector continued its recovery in Q3 2024, with revenue growth of 16% year-on-year and net profit growth of 23%, driven by domestic manufacturing equipment, AI, and new iPhone inventory [1][2] - The semiconductor manufacturing industry is experiencing marginal recovery, with advanced processes benefiting from AI demand, while mature processes face low capacity utilization [1][5] - The consumer electronics sector shows strong performance from the Apple supply chain, with expectations for improved margins in the Android high-end market due to concentrated new releases in Q4 [1][7] - Key investment logic includes domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturing, AI industry chain, and companies with scale advantages and cost control capabilities [1][8] Summary by Sections Overall Performance - In Q3 2024, the electronics sector's revenue grew by 16% year-on-year and 11% quarter-on-quarter, with net profit increasing by 23% year-on-year and 12% quarter-on-quarter, driven by domestic manufacturing and AI [2] - The sector ranked third in performance among various industries in the first three quarters of 2024, outperforming the CSI 300 index since late September [3] Revenue and Profitability - Industries with notable revenue growth in Q3 2024 include semiconductor materials and equipment, digital chip design, and consumer electronics assembly, all showing significant profit elasticity [4] - The semiconductor manufacturing sector is characterized by a recovery in advanced processes, with TSMC's advanced process utilization rates nearing full capacity, while mature processes remain under pressure [5] Future Outlook - The report identifies several key investment themes, including the increasing demand for domestic semiconductor manufacturing equipment, the long-term potential of the AI industry, and the focus on companies with strong scale and cost management [8] - The market for wearable devices and edge AI is expected to grow, with significant sales in AI glasses and continued high demand for cloud AI computing [9] Company-Specific Insights - Companies like 顺络电子 (Sunlord Electronics) and 法拉 (Fala) are highlighted for their strong growth potential in the automotive electronics and new energy vehicle sectors, respectively, with both companies showing robust revenue and profit growth [11][12] - 洁美科技 (Jiemai Technology) is noted for its stable revenue growth despite short-term profit pressures due to increased R&D costs, with expectations for improved profitability as new products gain traction [15][16] - 鑫鹏威 (Xinpengwei) is positioned well for growth in the home appliance market, benefiting from the old-for-new policy and expanding into various segments [17][18] - 电连技术 (Dianlian Technology) is experiencing significant growth in its automotive connector business, driven by new vehicle releases and increasing market share [19][20]

小米 SUV 热度渐起，供应链弹性梳理 20241124 摘要 • 小米汽车正从单一车型转向多车型战略，预计 2025 年新车周期将显著增 强，并计划推出 SUV 及增程车型，目标销量达百万辆级。 • 小米汽车今年交付量约 13 万辆，明年预计维持在 12-13 万辆，小米 SUV 将于明年上半年推出，售价区间为 24.99 万-35 万元，直接竞争特斯拉 Model Y。 • 小米汽车未来将持续推出新车型，保持一年一款新车的节奏，并计划在 2025 年底或 2026 年推出增程版 SUV，产业链具备较大弹性和增长潜力。 • 小米通过纽北成绩和智驾技术提升品牌调性，并已推出城市领航辅助功能， 计划 12 月推出先锋版，海外产业链和口碑为其出海奠定基础。 • 小米汽车核心供应商包括无锡振华、祥鑫拓普、经纬恒润等，其中无锡振 华与小米合作紧密，小米对其收入贡献预计明年将达 20%左右，但需关注 增程车型定点情况。 • 拓普集团作为特斯拉、华为和小米的核心供应商，受益于小米销量增长， 并积极拓展机器人等新兴领域，具备较强基本面支撑和长期发展空间。 • 精锻科技虽受特斯拉销量下滑影响，但积极转型机器人等领域，并为小米 ...

供给梳理 - 国内云母 20241122 摘要 • 宜春地区锂矿资源丰富，但不同项目成本差异巨大，永兴材料和九岭项目 的成本最低，在 5-6 万元/吨左右，而宁德时代等部分项目的成本高达 10 万元/吨，盈利能力存在显著差异。 • 目前宜春地区锂矿实际产能利用率较低，主要受制于矿石品位、选矿难度 和环保政策等因素影响。预计明年宜春地区碳酸锂产量可能仅为 6 万吨， 低于今年水平。 • 永兴材料白华山碎石矿项目产能扩张显著，预计明年中期投产后将达到 900 万吨采矿能力，对应 5 万吨碳酸锂当量，其低成本优势使其在竞争中 占据有利地位。 • 国轩高科在宜春地区的两个项目（白水洞和水南矿）面临成本压力，白水 洞项目因选矿难度大，成本较高，盈利能力存疑。水南矿项目尚在建设中， 未来表现有待观察。 • 除宜春外，国内其他云母矿区（如湖南、内蒙古）的项目产能释放有限， 部分项目因成本高企或其他原因停产或推迟投产，整体供应增量有限。 • 受成本和产能限制，在静态价格假设下（7 万或 8 万元/吨），明年仅有 少数宜春锂矿项目能够实现盈利。 • 尽管供给端面临挑战，但对锂矿需求端应保持乐观态度，预计明年一季度 或二季度市场 ...