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Toward Building Somalia’s Social Contract
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-12-06 23:03
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry under review Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of building a social contract in Somalia, focusing on state affordability, revenue mobilization, and service delivery in a nascent federal state [6][8] - It highlights that Somalia's domestic revenue-to-GDP ratio is currently the lowest in the world at 2.5%, with the state relying on official development assistance for nearly half of its budget [47][48] - The report outlines key questions for Somali policymakers regarding the type of state that can be afforded, enhancing domestic revenue, and delivering public services to increase trust in the state [47] Overview - The report discusses the challenges of state building in Somalia, particularly in the context of low tax capacity and reliance on donor funds [45][46] - It notes that the social contract is a dynamic agreement between the state and society, which is crucial for gaining legitimacy and maintaining social order [46] - The report indicates that significant progress has been made in state-building efforts over the past decade, including the adoption of a provisional constitution and the establishment of key federal institutions [47] Achieving State Affordability - The report explores the fiscal trends and challenges faced by Somalia in achieving state affordability [5] - It discusses the need for a minimal level of services to ensure state legitimacy, given the current low revenue base [47] Enhancing Domestic Revenue - The report outlines the goal of reaching a 4.5% tax-to-GDP ratio by 2030 and 9% by 2060, emphasizing the need for key revenue reforms [47] - It highlights the importance of fostering tax compliance among citizens and businesses to enhance domestic revenue [47] Delivering Services in a Nascent Federal State - The report addresses the division of labor in service delivery among national, state, and local governments [47] - It emphasizes the need for adequate resources and capacity at each level of government to effectively deliver public services [47]
Making Procurement Work Better – An Evaluation of the World Bank’s Procurement System
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-12-06 23:03
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the procurement industry but emphasizes the importance of enhancing procurement processes to achieve better value for money in World Bank-supported projects [20][21]. Core Insights - The evaluation assesses the World Bank's procurement system and its reforms since 2016, highlighting the need for improved efficiency, integrity, and sustainability in procurement practices [20][21]. - The reforms introduced a new procurement framework aimed at addressing bottlenecks and enhancing value for money, with a focus on client capacity building and the introduction of innovative procurement strategies [21][22]. - The findings indicate that while the reform has shown promising results, consistent implementation across projects and regions remains a challenge, particularly in areas with low client procurement capacity [24][25]. Summary by Sections 1. Introduction - The report outlines the significance of procurement for development and the World Bank's 2016 procurement reform aimed at improving procurement efficiency and effectiveness [20][21]. 2. Improving Procurement Efficiency - Procurement times have improved significantly, with the median turnaround time reduced to about two months from over three months prior to the reform [26][29]. - However, common processing issues and delays still impede project implementation, particularly in high-risk and complex procurements [31][34]. 3. Improving Procurement Economy, Integrity, Transparency, and Fairness - The reform emphasizes the need for enhanced market analysis and competitive approaches to engage qualified suppliers, yet the practical uptake of these principles has been slow [79][80]. - There is a need to balance cost and noncost factors in procurement to improve quality and sustainability [34][35]. 4. Improving Procurement Fit for Purpose and Value for Money - The application of procurement principles has led to better performance, but there is a lack of consistent implementation across projects [24][25]. - Early procurement starts and strategic planning are crucial for maximizing project outcomes [37][38]. 5. Procurement Capacity Strengthening and Support - The report highlights the need for strategic capacity strengthening to address persistent procurement issues and enhance client capabilities [56][58]. - Engaging in country-level dialogue and developing tailored capacity strengthening plans are essential for improving procurement performance [55][56]. 6. Conclusions - The evaluation concludes that while the reform's logic is sound, there is an urgent need to scale up its implementation across the investment project financing portfolio to maximize benefits [24][25].
Viet Nam 2045
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-12-06 23:03
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report outlines pathways for Viet Nam to achieve high-income status by 2045 through leveraging global and regional integration, transitioning from low value-added exports to higher value-added manufacturing and services, and addressing emerging risks and opportunities in the global trade landscape [33][34][59] Summary by Sections Summary - Viet Nam's current growth model, based on labor-intensive exports, is insufficient for achieving high-income status. The country must transition to higher value-added activities through technology, skills, and innovation while navigating changing global dynamics [33][34] Global Trade and Investment - Global trade has significantly contributed to Viet Nam's economic development, but the country faces constraints in its current export model, including limited domestic firm participation in global value chains (GVCs) and a shortage of high-skilled labor [25][29][34] Emerging Constraints - Viet Nam's dual economy limits linkages between foreign direct investment (FDI) and domestic firms, with only 18% of firms having GVC linkages, a decline from previous years. This indicates a need for stronger integration of domestic firms into global supply chains [32][41] Global Trade Shifts - The report highlights that global trade shifts present both risks and opportunities for Viet Nam, particularly as demand shifts towards Asia. Viet Nam can diversify its export markets and enhance its participation in digital service trade and automation [44][47] Policy Recommendations - Five policy packages are recommended to facilitate Viet Nam's transition: 1. From tariffs reduction to deep regional trade integration, focusing on reducing non-tariff barriers and enhancing regional connectivity [34][62] 2. From a dual economy to integrated domestic value chains, strengthening linkages between export firms and the domestic economy [41][62] 3. From labor-intensive assembly to skill- and technology-intensive activities, promoting higher value-added services in exports [46][62] 4. From basic education to a high-skilled workforce, enhancing the supply of skilled labor through targeted education reforms [50][62] 5. From carbon-intensive manufacturing to low-carbon exports, focusing on cleaner production methods and resilience against climate risks [55][62] Conclusion - Viet Nam's successful transition to a high-income economy by 2045 will depend on proactive reforms and strategic investments in human capital and infrastructure, alongside a comprehensive approach to policy implementation [59][60]
Cambodia’s Regional Connectivity
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-12-06 23:03
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - Cambodia's export-driven growth has led to a significant increase in freight demand, with containerized cargo movements increasing more than five-fold over the past 12 years. By 2030, trade volumes are expected to double, but high transport and logistics costs remain major bottlenecks to economic competitiveness [20][21][52]. - The Royal Government of Cambodia has developed the Comprehensive Intermodal Transport and Logistics System (CITLS) Master Plan for 2023–2033 to enhance transport sector performance and efficiency, but many projects are still in the conceptual phase [21][24]. - The report emphasizes the need for immediate investments and policy actions to unlock opportunities along existing transport corridors, focusing on short to medium-term priorities [22][52]. Summary by Sections Chapter 1: Importance of Regional Transport Connectivity - Trade, transport, and logistics efficiency are crucial for Cambodia's growth, with exports and imports by value growing by 340% from 2010 to 2021. Containerized cargo movements increased by 400% from 2010 to 2022 [57][60]. - High logistics costs in Cambodia are estimated at 26% of GDP, significantly higher than regional peers, with transportation costs comprising over 40% of total logistics costs [30][36]. Chapter 2: Overview of the Transport Sector - The transport sector analysis covers roads, inland waterways, maritime transport, and railways, highlighting inefficiencies in border clearance and trade procedures, as well as a significant infrastructure investment gap [30][36]. Chapter 3: Corridor Analysis - Three prioritized transport corridors are identified: - Corridor A: East-West road connecting Laem Chabang to Poipet, with significant development potential [37]. - Corridor B: Inland waterway corridor from Phnom Penh to Cai Mep, which offers lower transport costs [37]. - Corridor C: Existing rail corridor from Poipet to Phnom Penh, which requires upgrades to enhance its role in trade [37]. Chapter 4: Proposed Improvement Directions - Recommendations include improving cross-border transport and trade facilitation, modernizing the truck fleet, and enhancing the capacity and efficiency of inland waterways and railways [45][49]. - Specific actions are proposed for short-term and medium-term priorities, focusing on enhancing cross-border trade movement efficiency and improving road connectivity [49].
2024年经济包容性状况报告:扩大规模的途径
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-12-05 07:00
The State of Economic Inclusion Report 2024 Pathways to Scale Inés Arévalo-Sánchez, Janet Heisey, Sarang Chaudhary, Timothy Clay, Victoria Strokova, Puja Vasudeva Dutta, and Colin Andrews The State of Economic Inclusion Report 2024 Scan the QR code to see this and prior editions of The State of Economic Inclusion Report. | --- | --- | --- | |--------------|--------------------|-------| | | | | | | | | | The State of | | | | | | | | | Economic Inclusion | | | Report 2024 | | | | | Pathways to Scale | | Inés ...
Strengthening Cooperative Financial Institutions
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-12-04 23:03
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the cooperative financial institutions (CFIs) sector Core Insights - Cooperative financial institutions (CFIs) have significant potential to enhance financial inclusion in underserved areas, particularly in rural and marginal urban regions, but face challenges due to inadequate regulation, weak financial safety nets, and limited management capacity [16][17] - The World Bank and Rabo Partnerships project aims to strengthen CFIs by improving their regulatory and supervisory frameworks, as well as their institutional capacities, across Colombia, Ethiopia, and West Africa [17][32] Summary by Sections Background and Objective of the Project - The project focuses on promoting CFIs as a means to enhance financial inclusion and mobilize private capital, particularly in rural areas where CFIs are often the only financial service providers [29][30] - Strengthening CFIs is seen as a cost-effective policy for financial sector development compared to creating new retail networks [23][30] Project Objective and Main Activities - The project employs a parallel approach, with the World Bank focusing on regulatory and supervisory improvements while Rabo Partnerships provides technical support to enhance operational capabilities of CFIs [32][34] Selection Process of Pilot Countries/Jurisdictions - Colombia, Ethiopia, and West Africa were selected based on their potential for public sector engagement and the relevance of the CFI sector for financial inclusion [41][43] Colombia - The cooperative sector in Colombia consists of 176 CFIs serving approximately 3.6 million members, with significant potential for agricultural development [47][44] - The project aims to improve regulatory frameworks and support integration among CFIs to enhance their operational efficiency [50][51] Ethiopia - Ethiopia has around 21,883 SACCOs serving over 6 million members, playing a crucial role in financial inclusion [54][45] - The project identifies the need for a specific SACCO law and improved regulatory frameworks to enhance the sector's effectiveness [55][57] West Africa - The CIF network in West Africa serves 5 million members and aims to enhance its supervisory and safety net functions [62][63] - The project focuses on improving governance and risk management within the CIF network to better serve its members [66][68] Lessons Learned - The project highlights the importance of parallel improvements in regulatory frameworks and institutional capacities for CFIs to thrive [72] - Greater consolidation within the CFI sector is essential for resilience, particularly in contexts affected by fragility, conflict, and violence [70][72]
Water Security and Climate Change
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-12-04 23:03
Public Disclosure Authorized Water Security and Climate Change: Insights from Country Climate and Development Reports 1 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Water Security and Climate Change Insights from Country Climate and Development Reports WATER SECURITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE: INSIGHTS FROM COUNTRY CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT REPORTS ABOUT THE WATER GLOBAL PRACTICE Launched in 2014, the World Bank Group's Water Global Practice brings together financing, knowle ...
Global Regulations, Institutional Development, and Market Authorities Perspective Toolkit (GRIDMAP) - Consumer Protection Module
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-12-04 23:03
Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Global Regulations, Institutional Development, and Market Authorities Perspective Toolkit (GRIDMAP) | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|---------------|-------------------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Consumer | | | | | | | | Protection Module | | | | | | November 2024 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Finance, Competitiveness & Innovation Finance, Competitiveness & Innovation Public Disclosure Authorized Pu ...
Algeria Economic Update, Fall 2024
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-12-04 23:03
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - Economic growth in Algeria remained robust, with GDP growth at 3.9% year-on-year in H1-2024, supported by non-extractive sectors and dynamic investment [17][19] - Non-hydrocarbon exports have significant growth potential, having tripled since 2017 to reach 2.0% of GDP or US$ 5.1 billion in 2023, although they still represent a small fraction of total exports [20][34] - Inflation decelerated to 4.3% in the first nine months of 2024, down from 9.3% in 2022 and 2023, due to stabilization in fresh food prices and moderated import prices [17][19] Summary by Sections Chapter 1: Recent Economic Developments - Non-extractive GDP grew by 3.9% year-on-year in H1-2024, driven by strong investment growth and robust private consumption [38] - The current account reached balance in H1-2024, following a surplus of 2.3% of GDP in 2023, as export prices and volumes declined while import volumes remained high [17][19] - Inflation fell significantly in H1-2024, attributed to stabilized fresh food prices and a stable exchange rate [17][19] Chapter 2: Outlook and Risks - Growth is expected to slow moderately in 2024, with GDP projected to grow at 3.1%, while external and fiscal deficits are anticipated to widen [19][20] - Public debt is projected to reach 49.5% of GDP by the end of 2024, driven by declining hydrocarbon revenues and increased public spending [19][20] - A recovery in hydrocarbon output is expected to support growth rebound in 2025, although faster import growth may lead to a current account deficit [19][20] Chapter 3: Towards a Holistic Framework to Support Exports - Algeria's non-hydrocarbon export potential is significant, with a goal to export US$ 29 billion in non-hydrocarbon products by 2030 [20][34] - Productivity growth and conducive macroeconomic policies are essential for enhancing export competitiveness [20][34] - Adapting to global decarbonization efforts is crucial, as over 80% of Algeria's non-hydrocarbon exports to Europe are concentrated in carbon-intensive products [20][34]
Viet Nam - Recommendations to the National Roadmap and Action Plan for the Electric Mobility Transition
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-12-04 23:03
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the electric mobility sector in Vietnam. Core Insights - The report outlines a series of policy recommendations aimed at transitioning Vietnam's road transportation sector towards electric mobility (E-Mobility) using electric vehicles (EVs) to achieve significant emission reductions and energy independence [32][88]. - The transition is expected to require substantial investments in the power sector and charging infrastructure, with an estimated cumulative investment of up to US$9 billion needed by 2030 and US$14 billion annually from 2031 to 2050 [79][80]. - The E-Mobility transition is projected to create up to 6.5 million new manufacturing jobs by 2050 and save the economy up to US$498 billion in petroleum imports [91][93]. Summary by Sections Executive Summary - The report presents recommendations to achieve Vietnam's targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector, aiming for 50% of urban vehicles and 100% of urban buses and taxis to be powered by electricity by 2030, and 100% of all road vehicles by 2050 [32][33]. Context and Objectives - The report highlights Vietnam's commitment to reducing transportation sector emissions, which accounted for approximately 32.93 million tons of CO2 equivalent in 2021, representing 10.7% of overall energy-related GHG emissions [97]. Landscape for E-Mobility Transition - Vietnam is positioned as the world's second-largest market for electric two-wheelers (E-2Ws), with a market share of 12% in 2022, indicating a strong potential for rapid E-2W uptake [38]. E-Mobility Transition Pathways - To meet EV uptake targets, sales must increase from 500,000 units in 2022 to approximately 1.5 million by 2030 and 7.3 million by 2050, representing a total demand of over 7 million EVs from 2024 to 2030 [35]. Electrification of Public Transport - The report emphasizes the need for a complete transition to electric public buses by 2030, requiring the phase-out of 9,600 existing diesel buses and the addition of approximately 10,500 electric buses in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City [56]. Impact on Power System - The report projects that EV charging will not significantly impact Vietnam's power sector before 2030, but will require substantial additional generation capacity and network expansion post-2030, with an estimated 28% increase in power demand by 2050 [67][68]. Job Creation and Economic Benefits - The E-Mobility transition is expected to generate significant economic benefits, including job creation and reduced environmental damage costs, with potential savings of US$30 million by 2030 and US$6.4 billion by 2050 due to reduced local air pollution [91].