Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The paper proposes a method to measure refugee self-reliance based on whether self-earned income exceeds the locally relevant poverty line, emphasizing the importance of measurement for assessing the success of self-reliance promotion [4][11][57] - Refugees in middle-income countries are significantly more likely to be self-reliant compared to those in lower-income countries, with urban refugees showing higher self-reliance than those in rural or camp settings [4][58] - There is an inverse correlation between aid and self-reliance, suggesting that higher aid levels are associated with lower self-reliance among refugees [4][59] Summary by Sections Introduction - Over 36 million refugees are displaced globally, with many facing restrictions on labor market participation, leading to dependency on humanitarian aid [8] - The traditional model of refugee assistance is increasingly viewed as outdated, with a shift towards promoting self-reliance [9][10] Measurement of Self-Reliance - The paper defines self-reliance as the ability to meet essential needs independently of aid, using income as a key indicator [11][12] - Existing measures of self-reliance have limitations, often failing to capture true independence from aid [16][18] Empirical Analysis - The analysis utilizes 11 microdata surveys from low- and middle-income countries to estimate refugee self-reliance and poverty [29][30] - Key findings indicate high poverty incidence among refugees, particularly in low-income countries, with significant variations in self-reliance based on location and economic opportunities [36][44] Conclusions - The report concludes that enhancing refugee self-reliance is more effective in reducing poverty than increasing aid, advocating for a reallocation of resources to support self-reliance initiatives [55][60]

CYBERSECURIT Y ECONOMICS FOR EMERGING MARKETS Estefania Vergara Cobos | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|-------|------------------|----------------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | CYBERSECURIT Y | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ECONOMICS | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | FOR | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | EMERGING MARKETS | | | | | CYBERSECURIT Y ECONOMICS F ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the energy sector in Romania. Core Insights - Addressing energy poverty is crucial for economic development as it is closely linked to income poverty, with lower-income households being disproportionately affected by energy price increases [46][47] - Energy poverty impacts overall well-being, human development, and environmental outcomes, leading to health risks and exacerbating existing disparities among vulnerable populations [47][48] - The report aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of energy poverty in Romania, focusing on access to energy, barriers to sustainable energy transitions, the impact of rising energy prices, and potential policy actions [48][49] Summary by Sections Executive Summary - Energy poverty is a significant issue in Romania, affecting economic development and overall welfare, particularly among lower-income households [46] - The report highlights the need for a comprehensive analysis of energy poverty, considering various population groups and their vulnerabilities [46][47] Chapter 1: Motivation - The motivation for the report stems from the urgent need to address energy poverty in Romania, especially in light of rising energy prices and their impact on vulnerable consumers [48] Chapter 2: Access to Affordable, Reliable, and Sustainable Energy - Approximately 25% of the Romanian population experienced energy poverty in 2021, with households dedicating about 8.7% of their expenditures to energy [49] - In 2022, 17.8% of households faced difficulties in paying utility bills, and 15.2% struggled to maintain warmth, indicating a high prevalence of energy poverty [49] Chapter 3: A Behaviorally Informed Approach to Sustainable Energy Transitions - The report discusses the behavioral barriers that prevent households from transitioning to sustainable energy solutions, particularly in heating systems [48] Chapter 4: Simulating the Ex-Ante Impacts of Energy Price Increases - Rising energy prices have direct impacts on energy poverty rates and overall welfare, necessitating effective policy responses [48] Chapter 5: Effectively Tackling Energy Poverty - The report outlines existing policies and potential measures to mitigate energy poverty, emphasizing the need for targeted interventions to protect vulnerable households [48] Chapter 6: Conclusions and Policy Implications - The conclusions stress the importance of addressing energy poverty through comprehensive policy frameworks and targeted support for the most affected households [48]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The report highlights that despite reductions in transport costs, developing countries still face significantly higher transport prices and longer shipping times compared to developed countries, which affects economic growth and welfare [26][36][45] - It emphasizes the need for policy reforms to improve transport efficiency and reduce economic distance, which can enhance trade and economic development in developing countries [27][36][41] Summary by Sections Overview - The report discusses the disparity in transport costs between developing and developed countries, noting that it is 57% more expensive to export to the United States from a low-income country than from a high-income country [45] - It highlights that domestic transport costs in high-income countries are about half those in low-income countries, with some regions experiencing costs 3-14 times higher than in the United States [45] Economic Distance - The concept of economic distance is explored, indicating that transport infrastructure can mitigate the effects of physical geography, but its effectiveness is contingent on quality and operational performance [36][39] - The report states that reducing the distance for shipments can lead to significant cost savings, with a 100-kilometer reduction in distance resulting in an average transport price decrease of about 20% [36][38] Market Efficiency - The report identifies that increasing competition in the transport sector can lead to improved service quality and lower prices, citing examples from countries that have deregulated their trucking sectors [39][40] - It also points out that market failures and government policies can contribute to higher transport prices, emphasizing the need for reforms to address these issues [40][41] Policy Recommendations - The report suggests that efficient markets and places are essential for reducing economic distance, recommending measures to enhance competition and improve transport infrastructure [41][42] - It stresses the importance of understanding market failures and frictions to design effective policies that can lead to better transport connectivity and economic outcomes [41][42]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the agricultural sector in Ukraine, but it discusses the effectiveness of the Producer Support Grant program, which indicates a focus on supporting small and medium-sized farmers in a conflict-affected environment [4][9]. Core Insights - The digital farmer registry in Ukraine, known as the State Agrarian Register (SAR), has been instrumental in targeting and evaluating the $50 million Producer Support Grant (PSG) program, which has significantly increased the area cultivated by farmers, particularly those near conflict zones and smaller farms [4][12]. - The PSG program provided cash grants of approximately $86 per hectare to small farmers, which helped to bridge short-term financial gaps, although the overall impact on cultivated area was modest [12][32]. - The report emphasizes the importance of using administrative data and satellite imagery to assess agricultural support in conflict settings, highlighting the potential for improved targeting and effectiveness of public programs [13][20]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The report outlines the context of Ukraine's agricultural sector post-Russian invasion, noting significant displacement and damage to agricultural productivity [9][23]. - The establishment of the SAR aimed to facilitate access to support programs for small and medium-sized farmers [9][29]. Context and Setting - Ukraine has over 40 million hectares of fertile land, contributing about 10% to GDP and 42% of exports before the war [25]. - The war has disrupted agricultural production and logistics, necessitating the establishment of the SAR to support farmers [27][29]. PSG Program and SAR Platform - The PSG program, supported by the EU, provided unconditional cash grants to small producers, with a total of €50 million allocated [32]. - The SAR platform was designed to streamline the application process and reduce bureaucratic barriers for farmers [29][31]. Farm-Level Effects of the War and PSG Access - Despite the war, the total area cultivated remained resilient, although profits per hectare significantly declined due to increased input costs and lower output prices [34][39]. - The PSG grants were primarily used as working capital rather than for investment, indicating a need for more substantial financial support for long-term growth [44]. Assessing PSG Impacts on Area Cultivated and Targeting - The analysis indicates that the PSG program had significant but modest benefits, particularly for small producers near conflict zones, with limited mis-targeting observed [46][50]. - The use of satellite data and cadastral information allowed for a more accurate assessment of the program's impact on cultivated areas [46][48].

Policy Research Working Paper 10907 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Hidden Debt Revelations Sebastian Horn David Mihalyi Philipp Nickol César Sosa-Padilla Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice September 2024 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Policy Research Working Paper 10907 Abstract How reliable are public debt statistics? This paper quantifies the magnitude, characteristics, and timing of hidden debt by tracking ex post data revisions acro ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry under study Core Insights - Capital incentive policies in OECD countries, while aimed at boosting IT capital investment, may inadvertently hinder the adoption of cloud computing, big data analytics, and AI technologies [2][6][11] - The introduction of the Annual Investment Allowance (AIA) in the UK led to a significant increase in tangible capital investment by 61.7% from 2007 to 2013, but simultaneously reduced cloud adoption by 17 percentage points compared to the mean rate of 28% [11][12] - The AIA policy particularly affected small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which were found to be 37% less likely to adopt cloud technologies due to the incentives [12][13] - The report highlights that the AIA also lowered the likelihood of using big data analytics and AI by 18% and 3% respectively among treated firms, suggesting a broader impact on technology diffusion [13][14] Summary by Sections Introduction - The paper discusses how capital incentives can shape production technology and the unintended consequences these policies may have on technological change [6][8] Policy Analysis - The AIA was introduced to stimulate investment in tangible capital, including IT capital, but its design may distort firms' choices between investing in physical IT and adopting cloud services [20][21] Empirical Findings - The empirical analysis shows that firms eligible for the AIA experienced a significant increase in tangible capital investment but a decrease in cloud technology adoption, indicating a distortion in technology diffusion [11][12] - The report provides evidence that the AIA policy reduced the demand for data analytics workers by approximately 1.1% compared to non-treated firms, specifically affecting those in data analytics roles [14] Data and Methodology - The research utilizes firm-level panel data to assess the impact of the AIA on technology adoption, employing a difference-in-differences approach to compare treated and control firms [29][35] Conclusion - The findings suggest that capital incentive policies can have long-term impacts on technology adoption, potentially hindering competitiveness and growth at both the firm and macroeconomic levels [16][18]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Global progress on PPP regulatory quality has been modest, averaging two out of 100 score points, with significant room for improvement in PPP preparation, especially in low-income and Western and Central Africa economies [20][27] - There is a significant correlation between PPP regulatory reforms and PPP investments, with an average increase of approximately US$488 million in infrastructure PPP investments following major regulatory reforms [55][70] - The report emphasizes the importance of a robust PPP ecosystem, which includes regulatory and institutional reforms, project risk reduction mechanisms, and consistent adaptation to market changes [54][75] Summary by Sections Key Messages - The average PPP score by thematic area in 2020 and 2023 shows minimal improvement, with preparation remaining the area needing the most attention [20][27] - Reforms are often concentrated in specific areas, leaving many simple and useful reforms unaddressed globally [20][50] - Countries that have undergone significant reforms can still refine their regulatory frameworks to enhance PPP investments [20][50] Overview - The report aims to understand governance factors contributing to successful PPP programs, assess the quality of PPP regulatory frameworks, and provide insights into recent regulatory reforms through case studies [53][75] - Infrastructure PPPs are highlighted for their ability to integrate project phases, ensuring long-term efficiency and quality [74] Measuring the Legal and Regulatory Quality - Between June 2019 and June 2022, 60 economies strengthened their PPP regulatory frameworks, with notable changes in the MENA region [58][70] - The thematic area of preparation shows the most need for improvement, particularly in low-income economies [62][70] - Only 19 economies have adopted comprehensive public fiscal management systems to mitigate financial sustainability challenges related to PPPs [63][70] Understanding PPP Regulatory Reforms Through Country Case Studies - Case studies from Ghana, Panama, Saudi Arabia, and Ukraine illustrate diverse paths to achieving PPP reforms, emphasizing the need for tailored approaches [70][71] - The evolving landscape of PPP regulation requires continuous legal and institutional reforms to effectively develop complex PPPs [71][75]

Investment Rating - The report emphasizes the urgent need for sustainable cooling solutions in developing countries, highlighting a significant investment opportunity in this sector, with the market projected to grow to over $600 billion annually by 2050 [9][13][14]. Core Insights - The report identifies that approximately 3.5 billion people live in hot climates, with only 15% having access to air conditioning, indicating a substantial gap in cooling access that needs to be addressed [9][26]. - It stresses that sustainable cooling solutions are essential not only for comfort but also for health, food preservation, and productivity, particularly for vulnerable populations [10][13][30]. - The report outlines that the cooling market in developing economies is expected to double from around $300 billion to $600 billion by 2050, driven by rising temperatures and economic growth [14][15][39]. Summary by Sections 1. The Urgent Need for Sustainable Cooling Solutions in Developing Countries - The report highlights the critical need for sustainable cooling to address adaptation needs and meet Sustainable Development Goals, particularly in developing countries facing extreme heat [9][10][26]. - It notes that rising temperatures and insufficient cooling access lead to health risks and economic losses, emphasizing the importance of sustainable solutions [9][10][27]. 2. Diverse Sources and Sectors Imply Diverse Cooling Financing Needs - The report maps the investment landscape for cooling, estimating significant financing gaps that need to be filled to meet the growing demand for sustainable cooling solutions [10][18]. - It identifies various market segments, including residential and non-residential cooling, and emphasizes the need for tailored financing mechanisms to address these diverse requirements [18][19]. 3. Challenges and Response Strategies for Promoting Sustainable Cooling - The report discusses challenges to private investment in sustainable cooling, including regulatory barriers and lack of awareness about financing options [11][20]. - It proposes strategies to overcome these challenges, such as improving market data, promoting the business case for sustainable cooling, and enhancing policy frameworks [11][20][21]. 4. Financing Solutions and Innovations - The report outlines various financing mechanisms available for sustainable cooling, including revolving funds, risk-sharing facilities, and innovative business models [18][19][23]. - It emphasizes the role of development finance institutions in mobilizing private capital and supporting the transition to sustainable cooling solutions [20][23]. 5. Conclusions and Recommendations - The report concludes that achieving sustainable cooling requires coordinated efforts from governments, private sector stakeholders, and international organizations [11][21]. - It recommends enhancing awareness of business opportunities in sustainable cooling and prioritizing financing for passive cooling strategies [21][23].

Industry Research Summary Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry [1][2] Core Findings - Post-double selection Lasso (PDS Lasso) reduces standard errors by less than 1% compared to standard Ancova on average [2] - PDS Lasso does not select variables to model treatment in over half the cases [2] - The method typically selects very few control variables, with a median of 3 controls [9] - In over a quarter of cases, standard errors are slightly larger than with Ancova [9] Methodology and Application - PDS Lasso is commonly used in field experiments with small sample sizes (100-1,000 observations) [7] - The method is particularly relevant for developing countries where survey data often has an average attrition rate of 15% [8] - Researchers typically input a median of 182 controls, but PDS Lasso selects a median of only 3 controls [9] - The treatment regression step is more likely to select control variables when there is attrition [10] Performance Analysis - PDS Lasso leads to minimal changes in treatment estimates, with a median change of 0.01 standard deviations [9] - The median standard error with PDS Lasso is 99.2% of that with Ancova [9] - Cross-validation for selecting the penalty parameter can overfit and result in larger standard errors [11] - PDS Lasso sometimes ends up being less precise than Ancova due to failure to select key variables like the lagged dependent variable [10] Practical Recommendations - Researchers should include the lagged dependent variable in the amelioration set to prevent underfitting [54] - The number of control variables inputted should be judicious, avoiding a "kitchen sink" approach [59] - Missing values in control variables should be carefully handled to avoid sample size reduction [61] - When including treatment interactions, the interacting variable should be included in the amelioration set [75] Limitations and Considerations - PDS Lasso provides minimal power gains on average compared to Ancova [48] - The method is most beneficial when there is differential attrition greater than 5% [50] - Researchers should not anticipate large improvements in power from using PDS Lasso [76] - The double-selection step may not be necessary in many cases, as it often selects variables not strongly correlated with the outcome [69]