Group 1: Restaurant Industry Insights - The report emphasizes the resilience of the restaurant industry, highlighting key companies such as Yum China, Xiaocaiyuan, Haidilao, and Dashishi as potential investment opportunities due to their operational capabilities and market positioning [2][10] - The restaurant sector is expected to benefit from government policies aimed at boosting service consumption, with specific measures outlined to enhance the sector's growth [7] - Restaurant revenue is projected to account for 12% of total retail sales in 2024, with growth rates of 20% and 5% for 2023 and 2024 respectively, indicating a stronger performance compared to overall retail sales [8] Group 2: Computer Industry Outlook - The computer industry is anticipated to see significant advancements in AI applications, with a focus on increasing computational power and model sophistication [3][12] - The report highlights the emergence of large AI models and their commercial applications, indicating a strong growth trajectory for AI-related technologies [12][14] - The demand for AI capabilities is expected to drive investments in domestic AI chip development, with a focus on enhancing performance and establishing a robust software ecosystem [13] Group 3: Aerospace and Defense Sector - Hangya Technology is positioned as a key player in the aerospace engine components market, leveraging its expertise in precision forging technology to meet rising international demand [4][16] - The company reported a revenue of 530 million yuan and a net profit of 78 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.95% in revenue but a decline of 16.04% in net profit [16][17] - The report forecasts significant revenue growth for Hangya Technology, projecting revenues of 817 million yuan, 1.09 billion yuan, and 1.51 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits increasing substantially [17] Group 4: Macro Economic Context - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by a stable growth outlook, with a projected GDP growth target of around 5% for 2026, supported by proactive fiscal and monetary policies [30] - The report notes a focus on domestic demand as a primary driver of economic growth, with specific measures aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and enhancing employment [30][31] - Financial data indicates a slight decline in loan growth, with a notable drop in household loans, while overall social financing growth is stabilizing [18][19]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the insurance sector, recommending specific companies such as China Pacific Insurance, China Ping An, China Life (H), and China Taiping, while also recommending New China Life Insurance [4][17]. Core Insights - The financial industry experienced a mixed performance, with the non-bank financial index rising by 0.81%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.89 percentage points. The insurance sector showed a notable increase of 2.36%, while the banking sector declined by 1.77% [2][11]. - The central economic work conference emphasized a proactive fiscal policy, which is expected to benefit the insurance sector by increasing infrastructure asset supply and improving credit risk perceptions [14][15]. - The report highlights the potential for valuation recovery in the brokerage sector, driven by regulatory changes that align public fund interests with long-term investor returns [18][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Performance and Sector Insights - The non-bank financial index rose by 0.81%, with the insurance sector outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.44 percentage points [2][11]. - The banking sector underperformed, with a decline of 1.77%, attributed to macroeconomic policy expectations [3][21]. 2. Insurance Sector Data Tracking - The insurance sector's premium income showed steady growth, with life insurance and property insurance premiums increasing by 9.6% and 4.0% year-on-year, respectively [17][26]. - The report notes that the 10-year government bond yield decreased to 1.84%, which is favorable for the insurance sector's investment strategies [31]. 3. Brokerage Sector Data Tracking - The brokerage sector's PB valuation stands at 1.37x, indicating potential for valuation recovery as earnings improve [19][42]. - Regulatory changes in public fund sales are expected to enhance the industry's focus on long-term investor interests [18][19]. 4. Banking Sector Data Tracking - The banking sector's PB valuation is at 0.54x, suggesting it remains undervalued [21][25]. - The central economic work conference's focus on domestic demand and flexible monetary policy is expected to support the banking sector's growth [22][23].

Monetary Policy Outlook - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to discuss interest rate hikes in its upcoming meeting on December 19, with market expectations for a rate increase reaching approximately 90%[1] - If the BOJ raises rates to 0.75%, it would mark the highest borrowing cost in Japan since 1995[1] - The primary drivers for this policy adjustment include medium-term inflation expectations, wage growth prospects, and exchange rate pressures, rather than short-term price fluctuations[1] Economic Impact - The persistent depreciation of the yen has led to increased import costs and a solidified trade deficit, significantly impacting Japan's economic fundamentals[1] - The BOJ's rate hike aims to narrow the interest rate differential between Japan and the U.S., stabilize the yen, and address trade imbalances[1] - Japan's government debt has reached 1,323.72 trillion yen, accounting for 263% of GDP, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability amid rising interest rates[1] Market Reactions - The anticipated rate hike is expected to lead to structural adjustments in major asset classes, with the yen likely benefiting from the narrowing interest rate differential and triggering unwinding of carry trades[2] - Short-term bond yields are projected to rise sharply, while long-term yields may see a slight increase, further intensifying fiscal pressure on the Japanese government[2] - The stock market may experience short-term volatility, but structural differentiation is expected in the medium term, with bank stocks likely benefiting from improved net interest margins[2] Future Projections - The BOJ is likely to continue its rate hike cycle, with one to two additional hikes anticipated in 2026, contingent on wage growth and core inflation trends[3] - The government's aggressive fiscal policies may face constraints from both internal and external pressures, limiting their impact on the BOJ's monetary policy decisions[3]

Global and A-share Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance last week, with the North China 50 Index recording the highest increase of 2.79%, while the Hong Kong market saw a decline, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.42% [1][12] - The top-performing ETFs were primarily those tracking TMT sector indices [1] ETF New Issuance Statistics - A total of 20 stock ETFs were reported in the A-share market last week, with 7 new stock ETFs established [2][17] - In the US market, 21 equity ETFs were newly established, of which 17 were actively managed ETFs [1][24] Fund Flow A-share Market - The net inflow for the top 10 ETFs was dominated by the CSI A500 Index ETFs, with a total net inflow of nearly 10 billion yuan [2][25] - The top net inflows were recorded for the CSI A500 ETFs, while the largest outflows were seen in industry index ETFs [2][28] - In the thematic ETF category, the Central Enterprise 50 ETF had the highest net inflow, while the technology ETF experienced the largest outflow [2][28] US Stock ETF Market - The AI and big data thematic ETFs saw the highest net inflows, while cybersecurity thematic ETFs experienced net outflows [3] - The total net inflow for ETFs investing in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks amounted to 177 million USD [3] ETF Strategy Performance - The performance of the diffusion indicator + RRG ETF rotation strategy yielded a return of 0.73%, with excess returns of 1.3% and 0.81% relative to the CSI Equal Weight and CSI 300 indices, respectively [4] - The 50% base + intraday momentum strategy showed varying returns across different ETFs, with the CSI 500 ETF achieving a return of 0.75% [4]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" with a maintained rating from the previous assessment [4][9] Core Insights - The recent regulatory updates aim to enhance investor-centric practices in the public fund sales sector, focusing on long-term performance and transparency [2][3] - The new guidelines restrict short-term performance marketing and emphasize the importance of long-term investor returns, which may lead to a shift in sales strategies within the industry [3] - The regulatory framework is designed to align the interests of fund managers with those of investors, promoting a high-quality development trajectory for the industry [3] Summary by Sections Regulatory Changes - The new sales regulations include requirements for performance display periods to exceed six months and prohibit the showcasing of annualized returns for periods shorter than one year [2] - Sales models, particularly live sales, will be regulated to ensure compliance and professionalism, requiring certified personnel and a comprehensive management mechanism [2] - Fee transparency is mandated, with clear definitions and disclosures regarding service fees and commissions to enhance market fairness [2] Performance Assessment - The performance evaluation of sales institutions must incorporate investor profit and loss metrics, with a significant focus on long-term holding periods rather than short-term sales figures [3] - The guidelines promote a differentiated assessment system within fund management companies, ensuring that long-term investment returns are prioritized [3] Market Outlook - The industry is expected to experience a shift towards a more sustainable and investor-focused model, with short-term performance-driven sales strategies facing pressure for adjustment [3] - The overall market performance of the non-bank financial sector has shown fluctuations, with a recent relative performance of -1.99% over one month and 2.70% over twelve months compared to the CSI 300 index [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference were successively held. The policy orientation of the Politburo meeting returned to "strengthening counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment", and the Central Economic Work Conference emphasized quality improvement and efficiency enhancement. The bond market yield declined overall but with a limited range. The bond market's reaction to the meetings was generally positive but still full of concerns [1][10]. - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a reasonable intensity, with a focus on optimizing policy project implementation and addressing local fiscal difficulties. In 2026, the deficit rate may remain at 4%, and the implementation of "two new" policies and "two important" projects will be optimized [1][11]. - Monetary policy support may increase, aiming to achieve stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery. Policy tools will be used more flexibly and efficiently, and measures like reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts may cooperate with fiscal policy [2][11]. - The bond market's rise this year may be restricted by multiple factors, including concerns about ultra - long - term treasury bond supply, inflation expectations, and institutional behavior. It is recommended to adopt a coupon strategy at the end of the year [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook of the Bond Market - This week, important meetings led to an increase in expectations of loose monetary policy, and the bond market generally recovered. The yields of 10Y and 30Y treasury bonds both declined by 1bp. The yield first decreased and then increased during the week [9]. - Fiscal policy will maintain a reasonable intensity, with a focus on optimizing project implementation and addressing local fiscal difficulties. Monetary policy support will increase, aiming for economic growth and price recovery [11]. - The bond market's rise may be restricted by multiple factors. It is expected that reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will be used cautiously, and the curve may steepen. It is recommended to adopt a coupon strategy at the end of the year [2]. 3.2 Bond Market Review 3.2.1 Funding Situation - The central bank had a net injection, and the funding rate declined. From December 8th to 12th, the central bank's open - market net injection was 47 billion yuan. The R001 and DR001 decreased by 2bp and 3bp respectively compared to December 5th [19][21]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market Trends - Yields first decreased and then increased. The yields of key - term treasury bonds declined, and most of the term spreads widened. As of December 12th, the yields of 10Y and 30Y treasury bonds decreased by 1bp to 1.84% and 2.25% respectively [28][29]. 3.2.3 Bond Market Sentiment - The weekly turnover rate of 30Y treasury bonds rebounded to 43%, the inter - bank leverage ratio rose to 107.7%, and the median duration of medium - and long - term pure - bond funds remained basically unchanged. The implied tax rate of 10 - year CDB bonds narrowed [20][33]. 3.2.4 Bond Supply - This week, the net financing of interest - rate bonds increased. The net financing of treasury bonds, local government bonds, and policy - bank bonds all rose. The net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit was negative, and the average issuance rate increased [47][53]. 3.3 Economic Data - In November, export growth rebounded, and the year - on - year increase in CPI expanded. The year - on - year growth rate of exports was 5.9%, and the year - on - year increase in CPI was 0.7% [57]. - The increase in social financing in November was higher than the same period last year, but household credit remained weak. Since December, new - home sales have weakened, while movie consumption has remained stronger than the seasonal average [58]. 3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - The Fed completed its interest - rate cuts this year, and internal differences intensified. The bond markets in France and Germany declined, and most emerging markets also fell [67][68]. 3.5 Performance of Major Asset Classes - The performance of major asset classes this week was: live pigs > Shanghai copper > Shanghai gold > CSI 1000 > China bonds > CSI 300 > Convertible bonds > Chinese - funded US dollar bonds > US dollar > Rebar > Crude oil [3][74]. 3.6 Policy Review - Multiple departments held meetings to convey the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, emphasizing policies such as risk prevention, financial support for key areas, and high - quality development [78][82]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange revised the bond trading business guide, optimizing specific bond element display and adding non - trading transfer business [83].

Core Insights - The approval of the first provincial UHV project in Zhejiang and accelerated progress in controllable nuclear fusion commercialization are significant developments in the power equipment sector [2][63] - The total investment for the Zhejiang UHV AC ring network project is 29.3 billion RMB, marking it as the highest investment and largest single project in China's UHV AC engineering history [63] - The report recommends companies such as Pinggao Electric, Shunhua Electric, and Huaming Equipment in the power equipment sector, while suggesting attention to Tebian Electric [2] - For controllable nuclear fusion, Xuch Electric is recommended, with additional focus on companies like New Wind Power, Saijing Technology, Guoguang Electric, Hailu Heavy Industry, and Yongding Co [2] Industry Developments - The global opening of the ITER organization's core simulation tool IMAS is expected to accelerate the commercialization of fusion energy [2] - Huadian Energy has released new regulations for wind and solar investment mergers, requiring a minimum internal rate of return of 6.5% for capital in domestic and foreign wind and solar projects [3] - The energy storage sector saw a significant year-on-year increase of over 80% in procurement capacity in November, with a total scale of 11.5 GW/33.5 GWh [3] - The establishment of a photovoltaic storage platform company aims to regulate the photovoltaic industry by storing approximately 1 million tons of outdated capacity [4] Market Trends - In November, the sales of new energy vehicles in ten major European countries increased by 38.8% month-on-month, with a total of 290,000 units sold [25] - The report highlights the stable pricing of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and modules, indicating a steady market despite fluctuations in demand [10][11][14] - The report notes that the prices of lithium salts and ternary materials have shown mixed changes, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices rising to 94,500 RMB per ton [47]

Core Conclusions - The overall valuation of A-shares has contracted this week, with the communication industry leading the gains. The U.S. has allowed Nvidia to export H200 chips to China, which is expected to drive incremental demand for communication equipment. The domestic GPU leader, Moore Threads, has gone public, boosting sentiment in the computing power sector. Currently, the overall dynamic PE of the communication industry is at the historical 36.6% percentile, while the communication equipment sector's dynamic PE is at the historical 97.9% percentile, indicating high profit growth expectations [1][8][10]. A-share Valuation Overview - The overall PE (TTM) of A-shares decreased from 22.14 times last week to 21.74 times this week, while the PB (LF) fell from 2.15 times to 1.77 times [10][12]. - The PE (TTM) of the ChiNext board decreased from 79.84 times to 72.27 times, and the PB (LF) dropped from 4.74 times to 4.27 times [18][20]. - The PE (TTM) of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board decreased from 255.36 times to 210.87 times, and the PB (LF) fell from 6.29 times to 5.17 times [22][24]. Relative Valuation Expansion in Computing Power Infrastructure - The relative PE (TTM) of computing power infrastructure, excluding operators and resource sectors, increased from 4.24 times last week to 4.47 times this week, while the relative PB (LF) rose from 4.42 times to 4.66 times [24][26]. Major Sector Valuation Levels - From a static PE (TTM) perspective, sectors such as consumer discretionary, consumer staples, midstream manufacturing, cyclical, and midstream materials have absolute and relative valuations above the historical median, with consumer discretionary, consumer staples, and midstream manufacturing exceeding the historical 90th percentile. Conversely, essential consumer sectors have absolute and relative valuations below the historical median, with financial services, essential consumer, and services sectors below the historical 10th percentile [28][29]. - In terms of PB (LF), resource, TMT, cyclical, and midstream manufacturing sectors have absolute and relative valuations above the historical median, while consumer discretionary, midstream materials, financial services, services, consumer staples, and essential consumer sectors have absolute and relative valuations below the historical median, with consumer staples and essential consumer sectors below the historical 10th percentile [28][29]. Industry Performance and Profitability - Current industries such as agriculture, public utilities, and oil and petrochemicals exhibit characteristics of low valuation and high profitability [54]. - Industries like building materials, power equipment, media, defense, and basic chemicals show both low valuations and high performance growth [57]. ERP and Equity-Debt Yield Spread - The non-financial ERP of A-shares increased from 0.83% last week to 0.87% this week, while the equity-debt yield spread improved from -0.15% to -0.12% [58][62].

宏观周报 坚持内需主导，政策更加有为 证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 14 日 核心结论 中央经济工作会议：坚持内需主导，政策更加有为。12 月 10 日至 11 日中 央经济工作会议召开。会议指出，当前经济发展面临问题和挑战，但长期向 好趋势不变。我们预计 2026 年经济增长目标定在 5%左右。2026 年将实施 更加积极有为的宏观政策，增量政策和存量政策协同发力，继续实施更加积 极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。我们预计 2026 年一般预算赤字率维 持 4%左右，广义政府融资规模较 2025 年进一步增加，相对 GDP 比例可能 保持基本稳定；公开市场操作利率和 LPR 下调 10 个 bp 左右。会议对 2026 年经济工作提出八方面主要任务，其中"坚持内需主导"放在 2026 年经济 工作任务首位。深入整治"内卷式"竞争，有助于促进物价回升。此外，会 议还提出稳定房地产市场，加强民生保障，着力稳就业等方面任务。 中观产业跟踪：工业需求平淡，黑色系走弱，焦煤焦炭价格大跌，受下游钢 厂需求下滑、炼焦煤进口增长、反内卷不及预期等因素影响；南华玻璃价格 周跌超 8%。相比之下，美联储降息预期落地，有 ...

行业周报 | 有色金属 2026 经济开局定调+美联储降息扩表，看好有色景气上行 证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 14 日 有色金属行业周报（2025.12.8 -2025.12.14） 核心结论 本周核心关注一：政治局会议定调明年经济工作，实施更加积极有为的宏观 政策 2026 年经济工作的政策基调已经明确，会议指出，做好明年经济 工作，要实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协 同性，持续扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量，因地制宜 发展新质生产力，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，持续防范化解重 点领域风险，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推动经济实 现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，保持社会和谐稳定，实现"十五 五"良好开局。2026 年是"十五五"开局之年，政策取向将直接 影响未来五年经济发展的节奏与质量。政策基调将更为积极，重点 解决经济运行中的结构性矛盾，通过更加精准有效的政策组合拳， 激发经济增长新动能。 本周核心关注二：美联储继续降息，同时重启扩表 12 月 11 日凌晨，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 0.25 个百分点至 3.5%-3.75%，符合市场预期。其中声明新 ...