Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Neutral** rating on Pop Mart (9992 HK) with a 12-month price target of HK$70 00, implying a 10 3% upside from the current price of HK$63 45 [1][10] Core Views - Pop Mart reported **3Q24 revenue growth of 120%-125% YoY**, significantly exceeding the company's guidance of >62% YoY growth and showing acceleration from 1H24/2Q24 for both China and overseas markets [1] - **Mainland China sales grew by 55%-60% YoY**, outperforming prior estimates of 30% YoY growth, driven by strong performance in retail stores (30%-35% YoY) and e-commerce channels (135%-140% YoY) [1] - **Overseas sales surged by 440%-445% YoY**, well above the full-year target of >200% YoY, supported by strong store productivity and brand momentum [1][5] - The company's **overseas sales mix surpassed 45% in September**, up from 30% in 1H24, which is expected to further benefit gross profit margins (GPM) and operating leverage [1] - Pop Mart's **Labubu plush toy**, a star product, contributed 10% of sales in 1H24 with a 10x YoY increase, maintaining a price premium in the secondary market despite increased supply [1][8] Financial Performance and Forecasts - **2024E revenue** is revised up to RMB 11,890 7 million (12 8% increase from prior estimates), with **2026E revenue** projected at RMB 18,143 5 million (15 7% increase) [9] - **EBITDA for 2024E** is forecasted at RMB 4,340 1 million, with **2026E EBITDA** expected to reach RMB 6,591 6 million [1] - **EPS for 2024E** is revised up to RMB 1 92 (12 1% increase), with **2026E EPS** projected at RMB 2 86 [1][9] - The report applies a **25X P/E multiple** (up from 20X) to 2026E earnings, discounted back to 2025E with a 12% cost of equity (COE) [10] Operational Metrics - **Mainland China sales by channel**: Retail stores grew by 30%-35% YoY, Pop Draw by 55%-60% YoY, and e-commerce platforms by 135%-140% YoY, with notable acceleration from Tmall flagship store and TikTok [1][5] - **Overseas sales** accounted for 37 7% of total sales in 2024E, up from 35 0% in prior estimates, reflecting faster growth in international markets [9] - **Gross profit margin (GPM)** for overseas sales is expected to improve, reaching 70 9% in 2024E, up from 70 3% in prior estimates [9] Valuation and Market Sentiment - Pop Mart is currently trading at **24X 2025E P/E**, with the revised price target of HK$70 implying limited upside potential, justifying the Neutral rating [10] - The report highlights **strong IP momentum** and solid execution in category expansion as key drivers of Pop Mart's growth, particularly in overseas markets [1][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Miniso (MNSO) with a 12-month price target of **US$26.4/HK$52** per ADR/H-share, based on **18x CY2025E P/E** [1][8] Core Views - Miniso is expected to report **21% YoY growth in Group sales** to **RMB4.58bn** in 3Q24, driven by strong overseas performance, particularly in distributor markets [1][3] - **China sales** are expected to grow by **8% YoY**, slightly below management's earlier target, due to a weak consumption backdrop [1] - **Overseas sales** are projected to grow by **40% YoY**, with **DTC markets** up **55% YoY** and **distributor markets** accelerating to **28% YoY growth** [1][4] - **Top Toy brand** is expected to grow by **51% YoY**, driven by store expansion and favorable product mix [1][5] Sales Breakdown - **Mainland China sales** are forecasted at **RMB2.49bn**, growing **8% YoY**, decelerating from **18% YoY** in 2Q24 [4] - **Overseas sales** are expected to reach **RMB1.8bn**, with **DTC markets** contributing **55% YoY growth** and **distributor markets** growing **28% YoY** [4] - **Top Toy brand** sales are projected to reach **RMB272mn**, with a **33% GPM**, reflecting a **4pp QoQ expansion** due to a favorable product mix [5] Margins and Profitability - **Group GPM** is expected to expand by **4pp YoY**, driven by a higher mix of **overseas DTC** and **Top Toy margin improvement** [1] - **Adjusted OPM** is forecasted to decline by **2pp YoY** to **19%**, due to near-term investments in **US store expansion** and **24H Super stores** [1] - **Adjusted net income** is expected to grow by **9% YoY** to **RMB696mn**, with a **15.2% adjusted NPM** [5] Store Expansion - **Miniso brand** is expected to add **105 net stores** in Mainland China in 3Q24, reaching **4,220 stores** by the end of the quarter [3] - **Overseas store openings** are projected at **180 net stores** in 3Q24, with a full-year target of **550-650 stores** [3] - **Top Toy brand** is expected to reach **235 stores** by 3Q24, with **40 net openings** in the quarter and a full-year target of **112 stores** [5] Catalysts and Outlook - Key catalysts for 4Q24 include the **launch of Harry Potter IP** and the **upcoming holiday season**, particularly in the US where store expansion is accelerating [1] - The report highlights potential **tax credits** for the US business in 2H24, given the turnaround from the previous year [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Sunny Optical is maintained at Neutral with a 12-month target price of HK$63.50, based on a P/E multiple of 23.3x for 2025E [6][9]. Core Insights - Sunny Optical's September shipments showed a year-on-year increase of 6% for handset lenses, while camera module shipments decreased by 30% year-on-year. Vehicle lens shipments increased by 13% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is expected to improve its gross margin (GM) to 17.5% in the second half of 2024, up from 14.1% in the second half of 2023 and 17.2% in the first half of 2024, driven by product mix upgrades towards mid and high-end smartphone projects [1][4]. - The overall shipment performance for the first nine months of 2024 is largely in line with estimates, with handset lens shipments tracking 77% of the 2024 estimates, vehicle lens at 78%, and camera modules at 74% [2][4]. Shipment Performance Summary - Handset lens shipments in September were 119 million units, a decrease of 4% month-on-month but an increase of 6% year-on-year, leading to a total of 993 million units for the first nine months of 2024, representing a 20% year-on-year growth [2][4]. - Camera module shipments were 37 million units in September, down 30% year-on-year, with a total of 409 million units for the first nine months of 2024, reflecting a 3% year-on-year increase [4]. - Vehicle lens shipments reached 9 million units in September, up 13% year-on-year, contributing to a total of 80 million units for the first nine months of 2024 [2][4]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Sunny Optical are estimated to reach RMB 37.63 billion in 2024, with an expected increase to RMB 45.36 billion in 2025 and RMB 53.74 billion in 2026 [9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be RMB 2.08 in 2024, increasing to RMB 2.56 in 2025 and RMB 3.24 in 2026 [9].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Laopu Gold (6181.HK) with a "Buy" rating and a 12-month price target of HK$205, indicating an upside of 17.1% from the current price of HK$175 [1][3][19]. Core Insights - Laopu Gold operates in a niche market within the gold jewelry sector, focusing on luxury heritage craftsmanship, achieving over 100% same-store sales growth (SSSG) in the first half of 2024, while the broader luxury market faced declines [1][4][16]. - The company is projected to experience a net income compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29% from 2024 to 2026, with significant market share gains anticipated [1][19]. - Laopu Gold's unique positioning allows it to retain high resale value in its products, appealing to aspirational luxury consumers, and it is expected to triple its market share in China's jewelry market by 2026 [1][8][15]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Laopu Gold specializes in luxury heritage gold jewelry, with a sales CAGR of 59% from 2021 to 2023, reaching RMB3,180 million in 2023, and holding a 2% market share in the heritage gold segment [4][5]. - The company targets high-income consumers, primarily aged 25-55, with fixed product prices ranging from RMB10,000 to RMB50,000, averaging RMB30,000 [5][6]. Financial Performance - The report forecasts total revenue growth from RMB3,179.6 million in 2023 to RMB13,511.8 million by 2026, with EBITDA expected to rise from RMB694.1 million to RMB2,928.7 million in the same period [3][16]. - Laopu Gold's net income is projected to grow from RMB553.5 million in 2024 to RMB2,694.4 million by 2026, reflecting strong operational performance [3][16]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company is expected to achieve SSSG of 89% in 2024, normalizing to 20% and 15% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, driven by store productivity and new store openings [1][16]. - Laopu Gold plans to expand its store network from 33 to 50-60 stores in mainland China and 5-10 in Hong Kong and Macau by 2026 [14][16]. Valuation and Market Outlook - The target price of HK$205 is based on a 19x PE multiple for 2025, reflecting a premium valuation compared to the broader jewelry industry [19][21]. - The report indicates that Laopu Gold's growth potential is not fully priced in, with expectations of continued brand awareness and market penetration [19][20].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for CSPC Pharma is "Buy" with a 12-month price target of HK$10.03, representing an upside of 40.9% from the current price of HK$7.12 [5][6][11]. Core Insights - CSPC Pharma has entered into its first overseas business development deal by licensing a pre-clinical metabolism drug, YS2302018, to AstraZeneca for an upfront payment of US$100 million, potential development milestone payments of up to US$370 million, sales milestone payments of up to US$1,550 million, and tiered royalties based on net sales [1][2]. - This collaboration is seen as a significant step for CSPC's global expansion and validates its early-stage innovative pipeline, which is not yet reflected in its current valuation [1][2]. - CSPC aims to close 1-2 more business development deals by the end of 2024, indicating a proactive approach to enhancing its pipeline under new R&D leadership [1]. Summary by Sections Licensing Deal - CSPC has licensed out YS2302018, a small molecule inhibitor targeting lipoprotein(a), to AstraZeneca, marking a strategic collaboration that could enhance CSPC's global presence [1][2]. - The deal includes an upfront payment of US$100 million, which is significant for a pre-clinical asset, along with potential milestone payments totaling up to US$2.42 billion [1]. Product Potential - YS2302018 is positioned as a differentiated oral TKI targeting lipoprotein(a), which is linked to cardiovascular diseases, with a high prevalence in older populations [2]. - The drug's oral administration is a competitive advantage over existing therapies that require injections, making it more suitable for chronic disease management [2]. Financial Projections - CSPC's revenue projections for the upcoming years are Rmb 31,450.1 million for 2024, increasing to Rmb 38,080.8 million by 2026, with corresponding EBITDA growth [5]. - The company is expected to maintain a P/E ratio that decreases from 13.0 in 2024 to 10.1 by 2026, indicating improving profitability [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" (OW) rating to Yuexiu Property Co Ltd, indicating a favorable outlook compared to peers [1][3][5]. Core Insights - Yuexiu Property is expected to outperform its peers in sales, profitability, and dividend prospects due to its high-quality sellable resources and superior land reserve channels [1][5]. - The company has a strong financial position and low liquidity risk, supported by its state-owned enterprise (SOE) background [1][6]. - The report anticipates a target price of HKD 5.48, representing a potential upside of approximately 20% from the current price [5][6]. Summary by Sections Sales Growth and Land Reserves - Yuexiu Property has approximately RMB 330 billion in unsold sellable resources, with over 65% located in first-tier cities and more than 30% in second-tier cities [5][6]. - The company has maintained a land acquisition strategy that allows it to purchase land at lower costs, with 60% of its unsold resources acquired during a period of significant price adjustments in 2022 [5][6]. Financing and Liquidity - The company has maintained a net debt ratio of 60% and a cash coverage ratio of 1.5 times for short-term debt, indicating strong liquidity [1][6]. - Yuexiu Property benefits from a diversified financing capability, with an average financing cost of 3.57%, one of the lowest among its peers [6]. Management Incentives and Dividend Yield - The management has implemented equity incentive plans to align interests with shareholders, aiming for a stable dividend payout ratio of 40% [2][5]. - The expected dividend yield for 2024-2026 is projected to be between 7-9%, which is among the highest in the industry [2][5]. Valuation and Market Position - The report highlights that Yuexiu Property's current valuation appears attractive at 5.0 times the 2025 price-to-earnings ratio, compared to 5.1 times for its H-share SOE peers [5][6]. - The company is expected to increase its market share to 1.3% in 2024, up from 1.2% in 2023, positioning it among China's top ten developers [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades Haidilao International Holding to Neutral from Sell, with a new 12-month price target of HK$15.7, reflecting an 11.3% upside potential [2][22]. Core Insights - The share price correction of 23% since May 17 has accounted for less than expected margin expansion and slower store expansion, alongside increased competition in the restaurant sector [2][14]. - Haidilao has shown strong table turn growth year-to-date, outperforming other players in the restaurant industry, with over 20% growth each month [14][19]. - The company has committed to a high dividend payout ratio of 90% in 2023, which is expected to support the share price amid a more stable growth outlook [3][20]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue estimates for 2024-2026 have been revised down by 2%-7% due to a slower expansion pace, with total revenue projected at RMB 41,453.3 million for 2023 and increasing to RMB 53,582.8 million by 2026 [5][11]. - The EBITDA for 2023 is estimated at RMB 7,915.8 million, with a growth trajectory leading to RMB 9,731.2 million by 2026 [5][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to grow from RMB 0.83 in 2023 to RMB 1.09 by 2026 [5][11]. Market Position and Strategy - Haidilao's management has emphasized quality over quantity in store expansion, with only 8 new stores opened by the end of May 2024, compared to a target of 10% growth [2][14]. - The company has implemented effective turnaround initiatives, such as the "Hard Bone" and "Woodpecker" projects, which have improved operational efficiency and brand momentum [14][18]. Management Changes - A change in leadership was announced on June 21, with Mr. Gou Yiqun appointed as the new CEO, succeeding Ms. Yang Lijuan, who will lead the overseas operations [17][18]. - The new CEO's extensive experience in supply chain and digitalization is expected to support sustainable growth and operational precision in a competitive market [18].

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更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 21 June 2024 | 7:17AM HKT The 720: China Internet - 618 Shopping Festival, Sanhua, Japan Retail, Global Smartphone, Hon Hai, Hua Hong, China Macro In Focus | China Internet - 618 Shopping Festival Michael Snaith +852-2978-0455 | michael.snaith@gs.com China Internet - 618 Shopping Festival 5 key highlights - Buy BABA, PDD, Kuaishou Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Caleb Chan (on CL). With China’s 618 Shopping Festival (the longest yet) now concluded (on +852-2978-0790 | caleb.chan@gs. ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 7 June 2024 | 9:51PM HKT Miniso (MNSO): Consumer & Leisure Corporate Day: Recent trends continue to be solid in both China/overseas; Buy Bottom line: We hosted Miniso management at our Consumer & Leisure Corporate Michelle Cheng +852-2978-6631 | Day on Jun 7. Investors were mostly focused on: 1) recent trends: In China, Miniso’s michelle.cheng@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. SSS performance was healthy, fluctuating around 100% of 2023 level YTD despite Xinyu Ruan overall soft ...