证券研究报告·公司点评报告·汽车服务 中国汽研（601965） 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 4,096 | 4,697 | 5,471 | 6,322 | 7,365 | | 同比（%） | 24.48 | 14.65 | 16.50 | 15.55 | 16.50 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 836.17 | 907.78 | 1,114.41 | 1,275.21 | 1,437.57 | | 同比（%） | 21.33 | 8.56 | 22.76 | 14.43 | 12.73 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.83 | 0.90 | 1.11 | 1.27 | 1.43 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 22.77 | 20.98 | 17.09 | 14.93 | 13.25 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2025 年 0 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 股份制银行Ⅱ ❑ 浦发银行 25Q1 盈利动能、客群夯实、资产质量三大经营拐点再印证，基本面继 续向好，目标价 16.45 元/股，现价空间 52%。 ❑ 数据概览 浦发银行 25Q1 营收同比增长 1.3%，较 24A 由减转增；归母净利润同比增长 1.0%。25Q1 末不良率环比下降 3bp 至 1.33%；25Q1 末拨备覆盖率环比基本持平 于 187%。 ❑ 盈利动能拐点印证 经营拐点再印证 ——浦发银行 2025 年一季报点评 投资要点 浦发银行 25Q1 营收同比由负转正，尤其是核心营收全面向好，盈利动能拐点印 证。25Q1 营收同比增长 1.3%，较 24A由减转增。其中，25Q1 利息净收入同比增 长 0.5%，较 24A 的-3.1%改善；中收同比持平，较 24A 的-6.7%改善。 展望未来，得益于资产质量拐点向好，浦发银行信用成本压力有望继续消退，支 撑全年利润增速修复。 ❑ 客群夯实拐点印证 浦发银行 25Q1 负债成本显著优化，显示客群基础显著夯实，支撑息差环比企 稳。测算浦发银行 25Q1 单季息差环比基本持平于 1.33%，主要得益于单季付息 负债 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·通用设备 2025 年一季报点评：业绩短期承压，产能稳 步扩张注入长期成长性 增持（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 3,323 | 3,352 | 3,870 | 4,471 | 5,168 | | 同比（%） | 4.59 | 0.85 | 15.46 | 15.53 | 15.59 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 609.48 | 522.99 | 641.03 | 759.63 | 895.60 | | 同比（%） | 17.06 | (14.19) | 22.57 | 18.50 | 17.90 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.17 | 1.00 | 1.23 | 1.46 | 1.72 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 16.49 | 19.21 | 15.68 | 13.23 | 11.22 | [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_S ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zhongman Petroleum (603619.SH) is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that in Q1 2025, Zhongman Petroleum achieved a revenue of 943 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 17% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 12.96%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 230 million yuan, up 34% year-on-year and 301% quarter-on-quarter [1][3] - The report indicates that the increase in net profit is primarily driven by the engineering segment, which saw significant profit growth compared to the previous year when it faced challenges due to rig relocations [3] - The company’s oil and gas production totaled 277,200 tons in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.51%, with crude oil production at 218,800 tons, up 10.62% year-on-year [3] - The report notes that the development of the Iraq oil and gas blocks is progressing steadily, with the first joint management meeting for the EBN and MF projects completed, which is expected to positively impact future operational performance [3] Financial Summary - For the fiscal years 2023 to 2027, the total revenue is projected to grow from 3,732 million yuan in 2023 to 6,766 million yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.7%, 10.8%, 8.5%, 18.7%, and 27.1% respectively [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to increase from 812 million yuan in 2023 to 1,697 million yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 68.3%, -10.6%, 24.5%, 30.8%, and 43.6% [4] - The report projects the earnings per share (EPS) to rise from 1.76 yuan in 2023 to 3.67 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios decreasing from 8.94 to 4.28 [4][3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a steady growth in Q1 2025, with a revenue of 1.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.0%, and a net profit of 390 million yuan, an increase of 15.7% year-on-year [1] - The company has received government subsidies for coalbed methane extraction, amounting to 155 million yuan, which positively impacts its financial performance [2] - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing production capacity in various blocks, particularly the Pan Zhuang block, which is projected to maintain an output of around 1 billion cubic meters per year from 2025 to 2028 [4][7] Financial Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 42.1%, up 4.4 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 36.7%, up 6.9 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company's total revenue is projected to grow from 3.517 billion yuan in 2023 to 5.023 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.3% [6] - The estimated diluted EPS for 2025 is 3.23 yuan, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 8.74 times based on the closing price on April 29, 2025 [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guotou Electric Power is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported stable performance in 2024 with a revenue of 57.819 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.95%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.643 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.92% [1][2] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities increased by 15.93% to 24.657 billion yuan, indicating strong operational efficiency [2] - The hydropower segment benefited from abundant water resources, leading to a significant increase in electricity generation, while thermal power saw a recovery in profitability due to lower coal costs [2][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 57.819 billion yuan, with a net profit of 6.643 billion yuan, and a basic earnings per share (EPS) of 0.87 yuan [1][7] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 13.424 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.22% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.652 billion yuan, down 90% [1][2] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 13.122 billion yuan, a decline of 6.99%, but a net profit of 2.078 billion yuan, an increase of 2.01% year-on-year [2] Segment Performance - Hydropower revenue in 2024 was 26.624 billion yuan, up 4.1%, with a gross profit of 16.395 billion yuan, up 6.6% [4] - Thermal power revenue decreased by 4.8% to 21.775 billion yuan, but gross profit increased by 20.5% to 2.972 billion yuan [4] - New energy revenue was 4.848 billion yuan, a growth of 6.4%, but gross profit fell by 13% to 2.234 billion yuan [4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see significant growth in hydropower due to improved water conditions and the release of generation capacity from new plants [6][8] - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 7.188 billion yuan, 7.477 billion yuan, and 7.623 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 8.2%, 4.0%, and 2.0% [8] - The company plans to increase its new energy capacity significantly, with a target of 1,472 MW by the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 514.4 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.7% [7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 268.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.6% [7] - The company is focusing on dual drivers of revenue growth from both Moutai liquor and series liquor, with a planned revenue increase of 9% for 2025 [7] - The company aims to optimize product and channel matching to explore revenue increments, maintaining stable pricing for Moutai liquor [7] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: 150,560 million yuan - 2024A: 174,144 million yuan - 2025E: 190,054 million yuan - 2026E: 206,830 million yuan - 2027E: 227,000 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates for total revenue are projected at: - 2023A: 18.04% - 2024A: 15.66% - 2025E: 9.14% - 2026E: 8.83% - 2027E: 9.75% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted as follows: - 2023A: 74,734 million yuan - 2024A: 86,228 million yuan - 2025E: 93,203 million yuan - 2026E: 100,942 million yuan - 2027E: 110,276 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are projected at: - 2023A: 19.16% - 2024A: 15.38% - 2025E: 8.09% - 2026E: 8.30% - 2027E: 9.25% [1] Valuation Metrics - The latest diluted EPS (Earnings Per Share) estimates are: - 2023A: 59.49 yuan - 2024A: 68.64 yuan - 2025E: 74.19 yuan - 2026E: 80.35 yuan - 2027E: 87.79 yuan - The corresponding P/E (Price to Earnings) ratios are: - 2023A: 25.95 - 2024A: 22.49 - 2025E: 20.81 - 2026E: 19.21 - 2027E: 17.59 [1]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·电池 天奈科技（688116） 2024 年报及 2025 一季报点评：业绩符合预 期，单壁碳管放量在即 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 1,404 | 1,448 | 2,174 | 2,902 | 3,867 | | 同比（%） | (23.75) | 3.13 | 50.15 | 33.45 | 33.27 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 297.16 | 250.20 | 450.04 | 652.68 | 912.76 | | 同比（%） | (29.96) | (15.80) | 79.88 | 45.03 | 39.85 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.86 | 0.73 | 1.31 | 1.89 | 2.65 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 47.22 | 56.08 | 31.18 | 21.50 | 15.37 | [Table ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 股份制银行Ⅱ 中信银行(601998) 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 30 日 扩表提速，息差下行 ——中信银行 2025 年一季报点评 25Q1 中信银行息差（期初期末口径，下同）环比 24Q4 下降 10bp 至 1.61%，资 产端下行幅度大于负债端下行幅度。①25Q1 资产收益率环比下降 25bp 至 3.31%，判断一方面受市场利率下行影响，一方面受资产结构变化影响。25Q1 债 券投资增速（同比 9.4%）显著高于贷款增速（同比 5.1%）。目前配置盘票息收 入有限，债券增配可能对息差产生负面影响。②25Q1 负债成本率环比下降 15bp 至 1.74%，判断主要得益于存款利率调整。展望未来，中信银行息差仍面临收窄 压力，主要考虑市场利率下行和债券票息利差收窄。 ❑ 资产质量波动 25Q1 末中信银行不良率环比持平于 1.16%，关注率较 24Q4 末上升 5bp 至 1.68%，风险指标小幅承压。动态指标来看，25Q1 中信银行真实不良 TTM 生成 率 1.28%，环比上升 2bp。 ❑ 盈利预测与估值 投资要点 ❑ 中信银行 2025Q1 资产扩表提速，息 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 化学纤维 业绩稳中有增，涤丝龙头完善一体化产业链 ——新凤鸣 2024 年报及 2025 一季报点评 ❑ 4 月 25 日，公司发布 2024 年报：2024 年，公司实现营业收入 670.91 亿元，同比 +9.15%；实现归母净利润 11.00 亿元，同比+1.32%；加权平均净资产收益率为 6.46%，同比减少 0.22 个百分点。销售毛利率 5.63，同比减少 0.21 个百分点；销 售净利率 1.64%，同比减少 0.13 个百分点。 其中，2024Q4 实现营收 178.94 亿元，同比+3.62%，环比-0.17%；实现归母净利 润 3.55 亿元，同比+77.92%，环比+151.84%；平均净资产收益率为 2.08%，同比 增加 0.89 个百分点，环比增加 1.25 个百分点。销售毛利率 5.68%，同比增加 1.16 个百分点，环比增加 0.76 个百分点；销售净利率 1.98%，同比增加 0.82 个 百分点，环比增加 1.19 个百分点。 ❑ 同时，4 月 29 日，公司发布 2025 年一季报：2025Q1 实现营收 145.57 亿元，同 比+0. ...