Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Tongce Medical with a "Reduce" rating and sets a target price of 34 CNY by December 2025 [1][3][7]. Core Insights - The oral healthcare service industry faces both short-term and long-term challenges, leading to pressure on profitability. The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are 8% and 10% lower than market consensus, respectively [1][4][7]. - Tongce Medical's revenue is heavily reliant on Zhejiang Province, with 90% of its income generated from this region. The company has struggled with slow expansion outside the province and lower profitability in those areas [4][7][19]. - The report highlights that the industry is fragmented, with only about 3% of dental institutions operating in a chain model, limiting pricing power. Additionally, weak consumer spending has reduced demand for high-margin orthodontic and implant services [4][24]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Tongce Medical operates 84 medical institutions and has approximately 3,100 dental chairs as of Q3 2024 [1][7]. - The company was founded in 1995 and is one of the leading dental chains in China [7]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 2,847 million CNY in FY23 to 3,125 million CNY in FY25, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10% expected from 2024 to 2027 [6][13]. - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to increase from 500 million CNY in FY23 to 609 million CNY in FY26 [6][13]. Market Dynamics - The report anticipates a 7% CAGR for the domestic oral healthcare service market from 2024 to 2028, reaching 193 billion CNY [25][29]. - The market has seen a decline in growth rates due to the pandemic and changing consumer behavior, with a CAGR of only 0.5% from 2019 to 2023 [25][29]. Competitive Landscape - The report notes that the private sector dominates the oral healthcare market, accounting for over 70% of total revenue, with approximately 92.5% of dental institutions being privately operated [30][31]. - The competitive environment is characterized by price sensitivity among consumers, leading to increased competition from smaller clinics [24][25]. Valuation and Risks - The report finds Tongce Medical's valuation at approximately 35.5 times the expected 2025 earnings, which is considered high compared to peers [19][21]. - The report suggests that the company's growth visibility is low, making the premium valuation unjustifiable [19][21].

We are also watchful about Hainan's free-trade-zone policy and impact to duty-free operators. The Hainan government has not yet released any details, but we expect it to do so later this year as Central government targets opening the FTZ in 2025. Recap of March-2025 Hainan offline DF trends: Avg daily sales Rmb94mn (-5% YoY vs -13% YoY in 2M25); Daily shoppers 17.7K (-26% YoY) and spending per shopper Rmb6.5K (+28%). The ASP growth could be helped by more electronic product sales which might not translate t ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology is Neutral, with a target price adjusted to Rmb30 from Rmb33, reflecting a 5.7% expected return [4][21][22]. Core Insights - The company reported 4Q24 results that were in line with preliminary results, with a revenue decrease of 2% YoY to Rmb27.5 billion and a net profit decline of 26% YoY to Rmb3.9 billion [2][10]. - For 1Q25, revenue increased by 4% YoY to Rmb18.5 billion, although it was below expectations [1][11]. - Management plans to focus on higher-margin businesses and maintain strict control over operating expenses [8][21]. - There is an expectation of muted recovery in domestic business for FY25, while overseas and innovative business segments are anticipated to grow stronger [8][21]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - 4Q24 revenue was Rmb27.5 billion, down 2% YoY, with a gross margin of 41%, down 1.9 percentage points YoY [2][10]. - 1Q25 revenue rose to Rmb18.5 billion, with a gross margin of 43.9%, down 0.8 percentage points [1][11]. - FY24 revenue for the PBG segment decreased by 12% YoY, while the innovation business grew by 21.2% YoY to Rmb22.5 billion [2][10]. Earnings Estimates - FY25-26 earnings estimates have been cut by 11-16% due to lower revenue and margin assumptions [9][13]. - The new revenue estimate for FY25 is Rmb98.986 billion, down 3.2% from the previous estimate [13][14]. Market Position and Strategy - Hikvision is the world's largest supplier of video surveillance products, focusing on innovation and expanding its overseas business [20][21]. - The company has ceased shipments to the US, which previously accounted for about 3-4% of sales, with limited expected impact on overall business [8][21]. Valuation Metrics - The target price of Rmb30 is based on a 20.2x NTM PE, which aligns with the company's 10-year historical average [4][22]. - Current market capitalization is Rmb261.946 billion [4].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The average tariff imposed by the US has surged from 3% to over 20%, marking the highest level in nearly a century, which has led to significant declines in stock and commodity prices, reminiscent of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of the 1930s [1][2] - High tariffs disrupt global supply chains, forcing companies to adjust production layouts, which reduces global production efficiency and raises the US policy uncertainty index to its second-highest level in decades [1][5] - The imposition of tariffs is expected to push inflation higher, slow down economic growth in exporting countries, and suppress overall production, leading to a lasting negative impact on the macroeconomy [1][6] - The report predicts a potential recession or stagflation in the US economy, with GDP expected to drop sharply and both consumption and investment slowing down, contrasting with the prevailing belief in the resilience of the US economy [1][8] - Economic data in the US shows significant divergence, with soft data (like consumer confidence) not aligning with hard data (like sales figures), necessitating careful differentiation between core and auxiliary data to avoid reliance on distorted information [1][12] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - The US government has announced a significant increase in tariffs, raising basic tariffs by 10% and imposing tariffs of 30% to 50% on countries with large trade deficits with the US, resulting in an average tariff increase to over 20% [2][3] - This tariff increase has led to a notable decline in US stock markets and commodity prices, indicating a substantial negative impact on the economy [4][5] Economic Outlook - The report suggests that the US economy may face a challenging future, with a high likelihood of recession or stagflation due to the adverse effects of tariffs and other policies [7][8] - The analysis indicates that the most resilient sectors, such as consumption and investment, are also showing signs of slowing down, confirming the overall downward trend in the economy [17][18] Global Economic Context - China's economy showed a GDP growth of 5.4% in the first quarter, but is expected to face challenges in the second and third quarters due to tariff impacts, with potential government measures to stabilize recovery [19][20] - The report emphasizes the importance of considering the contrasting policy environments between the US and China, with China having more room for counter-cyclical stimulus due to lower inflation [20][21] Asset Allocation Recommendations - In the current environment, the report recommends allocating to safe assets like gold and Chinese bonds, while advising caution regarding traditional safe assets like US dollars and bonds due to their diminished safety and resilience [44][38] - The report suggests that investors should maintain a cautious stance towards US equities, given the potential for recession or stagflation, and consider structural adjustments in their portfolios [39][42]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Eoptolink, with a revised 12-month target price of Rmb123, indicating a potential upside of 51.5% from the current price of Rmb81.2 [9][17]. Core Insights - Eoptolink's revenue for 1Q25 reached Rmb4.05 billion, representing a 264% year-over-year increase and a 15% quarter-over-quarter increase, which aligns closely with Goldman Sachs' estimate of Rmb3.99 billion. The net profit of Rmb1.57 billion exceeded estimates by 11%, driven by strong margin expansion with a gross margin of 48.7% [1][2]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ramp-up of 400G and 800G optical transceivers, particularly in AI infrastructure, which is expected to be a primary earnings driver in 2025 [15]. - Eoptolink's net profit has converged with that of its larger peer, Innolight, despite having a market capitalization that is only 65% of Innolight's, suggesting a potential narrowing of the valuation gap due to Eoptolink's strong profitability and growth momentum [1][12]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Eoptolink's revenue growth has been robust, with sequential increases of 49%, 46%, and 15% quarter-over-quarter in 3Q24, 4Q24, and 1Q25, respectively. The company is expected to achieve a net profit of Rmb6.4 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 126% [2][9]. - The gross margin has shown significant improvement, reaching 48.7% in 1Q25, which is well above peer levels, attributed to better cost efficiency and the ramp of 800G products [2][6]. Estimate Revisions - Revenue estimates for 2025-2027 have been revised upward by up to 10%, and net profit estimates have been increased by up to 40% due to the reversal of negative pricing impacts from tariffs and stronger-than-expected margin performance [8][9]. - The new revenue estimates for 2025E are Rmb17.12 billion, with a gross margin projected at 48.8% [10][17]. Market Position and Valuation - Eoptolink is trading near its historical trough level P/E, which is considered attractive given the expected growth and profitability [15]. - The report highlights that the stock's valuation is set in line with the company's trough level P/E during 2021-2025, reflecting uncertainties in the tariff and demand outlook [9][15].

Investment Ratings - Dahua: Sell [1][2][39] - Arcsoft: Sell [1][14][36] - Chinasoft Intl.: Neutral [1][24][34] Core Insights - Dahua launched the Xinghan foundation model 2.0 to enhance product competitiveness, but market demand is expected to remain low in 2025, particularly in China [2][3] - Arcsoft's growth is driven by AI and smart driving technologies, with management targeting high double-digit to triple-digit revenue growth in 2025 [14][15] - Chinasoft Intl. is expected to recover in 2025, driven by Huawei's product deployment and a positive outlook for traditional IT services [24][25] Dahua Summary - 1Q25 net income increased by 16% YoY to RMB 653 million, but was 14% below estimates; revenues were up 1% YoY but down 36% QoQ [3][7] - Earnings estimates for 2025-2027 were revised down by 21%, 16%, and 15% respectively due to lower revenue visibility and increased R&D investments [8][10] - Target price revised down to RMB 14.28, reflecting a 9% downside [10] Arcsoft Summary - 1Q25 revenues were up 14% YoY to RMB 209 million, but 10% lower than estimates; net income was up 45% YoY to RMB 50 million [15][16] - Earnings estimates for 2025-2026 were revised down by 19% and 15% respectively, reflecting competition and modest demand [21][22] - Target price revised up to RMB 37.5, indicating a 14% downside [22] Chinasoft Intl. Summary - 2H24 revenues returned to positive YoY growth at +4%, with operating income largely in line with estimates [27][29] - Earnings estimates for 2025-2027 were cut by 3%, 2%, and 2% respectively due to gross margin misses and pricing pressures [30][34] - Target price set at HK$5.5, based on a 15.4x 2025E P/E [34]

Investment Rating - Stock Rating: Overweight [6] - Industry View: Attractive [6] - Price Target: Rmb122.00 [6] Core Insights - Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co Ltd reported robust results for 4Q24, with a net profit of Rmb455 million, reflecting a 23.6% quarter-on-quarter and 12.2% year-on-year increase [9] - The company aims for 20-30% year-on-year revenue and shipment growth in FY25, with overseas sales projected to exceed Rmb1 billion [9][3] - The company is expanding its production capabilities, including plans for a factory in the US to meet localized procurement demands [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY24 net profit was Rmb1.47 billion, up 22.6% year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 27.3% in 4Q24, an increase of 3.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [9] - The FY24 dividend was Rmb2 per share, yielding 1.8% with a payout ratio of 36.9% [9] Market Expansion - Overseas sales are targeted to grow significantly, from Rmb574 million in 2024 to over Rmb1 billion in 2025 [3] - The Germany factory is expected to become profitable in 2Q25, while the US and Malaysia factories are anticipated to start generating sales in 2026 [3] Product Development - Kedali is focusing on humanoid robots as a significant industrial opportunity and is expanding its reducer capacity based on customer demand [4] - The company has initiated R&D on products beyond reducers, indicating a diversification strategy [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for Anji Microelectronics Technology and raises the target price to CNY175 from CNY157 [3][5]. Core Insights - Anji Microelectronics reported a revenue of CNY1,835 million for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 48%, driven by strong performance in photoresist solvent, which grew by 79% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company's gross margin improved to 58.5%, up 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to scale advantages and product mix improvements [1]. - Earnings for 2024 were reported at CNY534 million, a 33% increase year-on-year, but fell short of consensus estimates due to higher asset impairment losses and a reduction in government subsidies [1]. Summary by Sections 2024 Performance - Revenue reached CNY1,835 million, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 1% [1]. - Photoresist solvent sales increased by 79% year-on-year, while CMP slurry sales grew by 44% [1]. - Gross margin was 58.5%, 0.4 percentage points above consensus [1]. 2025 Forecast - Expected sales and earnings growth of 24% and 28% year-on-year, respectively, driven by continued localization trends [2]. - Potential for increased CMP slurry penetration in key clients, with current penetration below 50% for the second and third largest clients [2]. - Anticipated better revenue growth in photoresist solvent due to low current penetration of around 20-25% [2]. Valuation and Target Price - The new target price of CNY175 is based on a 33x multiple of the 2025F EPS of CNY5.3, slightly above the historical average P/E of 32x [3][26]. - The stock currently trades at 33x 2025F P/E, indicating a modest upside of 1.2% from the closing price of CNY172.91 [5][26]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for FY25 are set at CNY2,275 million, with net profit expected to reach CNY682 million [4][10]. - Normalized EPS is forecasted to grow by 27.7% in FY25, reaching CNY5.29 [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating on Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical (JSG) and lowers the target price to CNY27 from CNY30, reflecting weaker-than-expected results and a likely continued decline in solar equipment order backlog [4][6]. Core Insights - The company's 2024 revenue declined by 2% year-on-year to CNY17,577 million, which is 9% lower than the Bloomberg consensus estimate, primarily due to a 20% decline in the materials business [1][2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 fell by 45% year-on-year to CNY1.92, which is 36% lower than the consensus estimate, attributed to gross margin contraction, increased operating expenses, and a significant rise in asset impairment losses [1][4]. - The solar sector outlook remains negative, with solar demand softening, which is expected to continue impacting JSG's earnings in 2025 [2][3]. Financial Summary - For FY24, JSG reported revenue of CNY17,577 million, with a projected decline to CNY16,051 million in FY25F and a slight recovery to CNY16,119 million in FY26F [5]. - The reported net profit for FY24 was CNY2,510 million, with forecasts of CNY2,212 million for FY25F and CNY2,181 million for FY26F [5]. - The normalized EPS is expected to decrease to CNY1.69 for FY25F and CNY1.67 for FY26F, down from CNY2.29 and CNY2.39 respectively [4][5]. Market Position and Risks - JSG's inventory and contract liabilities have decreased by 30% and 48% year-on-year as of December 2024, indicating a softening order backlog from solar clients [2]. - The potential downside in sales and earnings could be partially mitigated by a stable semi-equipment order backlog and delayed revenue recognition from ongoing projects [3][4]. - The stock currently trades at a P/E of 17x for FY25F, while the revised target price reflects a P/E of 16x [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Sieyuan Electric with a price target of Rmb 85.00 by December 2025 [19][27]. Core Insights - Sieyuan Electric's FY24 results were in line with expectations, with new orders guidance for FY25 projected to grow by 25%, which is above consensus estimates of approximately 20% [2][3]. - The company experienced a significant increase in overseas revenue, which grew by approximately 45% year-on-year, contributing positively to overall growth [2][4]. - Despite strong financial performance, there are concerns regarding the management's decision to limit disclosures about its by-product segments for FY24, which raises questions about transparency [2][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - New orders for FY24 grew by approximately 30% year-on-year to around Rmb 21.5 billion, surpassing the target of 25% growth [3]. - Overall revenue growth reached 30% year-on-year in Q4 2024, with overseas revenue increasing by about 50% year-on-year in the second half of 2024 [4]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) improved by 2 percentage points to 31% in 2024, driven by better domestic margins and higher contributions from overseas sales [5]. Expenses and Provisions - Selling expenses rose by 32% year-on-year in 2024, attributed to increased marketing efforts and share options impact [6]. - The company made Rmb 107 million in goodwill provisions in 2024, primarily related to its supercapacitor business [6][10]. Future Guidance - Sieyuan Electric is guiding for a revenue of Rmb 18.5 billion in FY25, reflecting a 20% year-on-year growth expectation [17]. - The company anticipates new orders to reach Rmb 26.8 billion in FY25, maintaining a growth rate of 25% [17]. Market Position and Outlook - Sieyuan Electric is positioned to benefit from China's elevated transmission and distribution capital expenditure, as well as from global trends in transmission capex and transformer shortages [19]. - The report suggests that the market reaction to the company's guidance will likely be positive, given the strong outlook for new orders [13].