Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an updated target price of HKD 591 (previously HKD 571) and USD 76 (previously USD 73) [1][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a 4Q24 net revenue of RMB 12.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23%, exceeding market expectations by 5% [2]. - The international business is still in an investment phase, but the long-term growth potential is viewed positively, particularly in overseas markets [1][5]. - The company’s gross merchandise volume (GMV) for its core OTA business reached RMB 1.2 trillion (USD 169 billion), reflecting a 9% increase from the previous year, maintaining its position as the largest OTA globally [3]. Financial Performance - 4Q24 adjusted net profit was RMB 3 billion, a 14% year-on-year increase, surpassing market expectations by 6% [2]. - The company’s gross profit margin decreased by 1 percentage point to 79% year-on-year, while marketing expenses rose by 45% due to increased overseas investments [2][5]. - Revenue projections for 2025 have been slightly adjusted, with expected revenue of RMB 61.7 billion, reflecting a 16% year-on-year growth [6][24]. Business Growth Potential - Domestic tourism is expected to grow by 10% in 2025, with the company leveraging its advantages in hotel ADR and air ticket pricing to outperform the industry [4]. - The international business, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, is projected to contribute significantly to total revenue, with a potential market size 1.5 times that of the domestic market [4]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its one-stop service and mobile platform to capture a larger share of the international market [4]. Shareholder Returns - The company announced a USD 400 million share buyback plan and a dividend of USD 200 million (USD 0.3 per share), indicating a commitment to delivering stable performance and shareholder returns [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 12.8 billion RMB in Q4 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 23.5%, exceeding expectations by 3.6% [1] - Adjusted net profit for Q4 was 3 billion RMB, up 13.6% year-over-year, also surpassing expectations by 8.3%, driven by strong growth in international business and inbound travel demand [1][2] - The company is expected to increase its investment in international business over the next two years, which may lead to a slight decline in profit margins in the short term, but this is anticipated to open new growth avenues and greater profit flexibility in the long term [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4, the company’s international OTA platform hotel and flight bookings grew over 70% year-over-year, with international business accounting for 14% of total revenue, up from 10% for the full year 2024 [2] - The inbound travel demand saw a 100% year-over-year increase in bookings, benefiting from favorable visa policies [2] Profitability Outlook - The company’s gross margin for Q4 2024 was 79.1%, showing a slight decline due to the increased proportion of lower-margin international business [3] - Management indicated a focus on expanding overseas operations, which may lead to short-term profit margin pressure but is expected to strengthen the company's global positioning and ensure sustainable profit release in the long run [3] Technology Deployment - The management is focusing on the comprehensive deployment of AI technology in business operations, utilizing extensive real-time travel data for personalized travel recommendations and competitive pricing [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 61.3 billion, 71.3 billion, and 82.4 billion RMB, respectively, with adjusted net profits of 19.7 billion, 22.5 billion, and 26 billion RMB [5][12] - The target price for the company's US stock is set at $75.50, while the target price for the Hong Kong stock is HKD 563.70, based on a PE valuation method [5][15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba-W (09988.HK) [1] Core Insights - The company's revenue growth exceeded expectations, with total revenue reaching RMB 280.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of RMB 277.37 billion [10][29] - Non-GAAP net profit for the quarter was RMB 51.1 billion, up 7% year-on-year, also exceeding market expectations [10][29] - The report highlights a significant increase in capital expenditure, which rose to RMB 31.7 billion, compared to RMB 17.5 billion in the previous quarter, indicating a focus on meeting customer demand [25][29] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - For FY2025 Q3, Alibaba's revenue from its main business segments showed robust growth, with Taobao and Tmall generating RMB 1361 billion (up 5% YoY), international digital commerce at RMB 378 billion (up 32% YoY), and cloud services at RMB 31.7 billion (up 13% YoY) [10][14][29] - The overall EBITA margin for the company is in a recovery phase, with expectations for continued improvement in profitability [29] Business Segment Performance - Taobao's customer management revenue grew by 9%, driven by an increase in the number of 88VIP members to 49 million, reflecting strong performance during the Double 11 shopping festival [14][29] - The international digital commerce segment saw a 32% increase in revenue, primarily due to strong cross-border business performance [19][29] - The local life business, including Ele.me, reported a 12% revenue increase, with losses narrowing significantly [21][29] - Alibaba Cloud's revenue growth of 13% year-on-year indicates a return to double-digit growth, with AI being emphasized as a core strategic focus [18][29] Financial Forecasts - The report maintains EPS forecasts for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 at RMB 8.14, RMB 8.82, and RMB 9.55 respectively, with corresponding Non-GAAP PE ratios of 15.8, 14.6, and 13.5 [29][32]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba-W (09988.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's revenue growth exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 8% in FY2025 Q3, reaching RMB 280.1 billion, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of RMB 277.37 billion. Non-GAAP net profit also rose by 7% year-on-year to RMB 51.1 billion, exceeding the expected RMB 46.13 billion [10][29] - The report highlights that the Taobao and Tmall business segment's revenue grew by 5% to RMB 1360.91 billion, driven by an increase in customer management revenue, which rose by 9% [14][29] - The report emphasizes the strategic focus on e-commerce and cloud computing, with AI-driven initiatives being a core strategy moving forward [18][29] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In FY2025 Q3, the company achieved total revenue of RMB 280.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8%, and a non-GAAP net profit of RMB 51.1 billion, also up 7% year-on-year [10][29] - The revenue breakdown for major business segments includes Taobao and Tmall at RMB 1361 billion (5% growth), international digital commerce at RMB 378 billion (32% growth), and cloud services at RMB 317 billion (13% growth) [14][29] Business Segment Performance - Taobao and Tmall's EBITA margin decreased by 1.55 percentage points to 44.88%, indicating increased investment in customer acquisition and technology services [14][29] - The international digital commerce segment saw a 32% revenue increase, primarily due to strong performance in cross-border business [19][29] - The local life business reported a 12% revenue increase, with losses narrowing significantly, while the logistics segment (Cainiao) experienced a slight revenue decline of 1% [21][29] Future Outlook and Valuation - The report maintains EPS forecasts for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 at RMB 8.14, RMB 8.82, and RMB 9.55, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios (Non-GAAP) of 15.8, 14.6, and 13.5 [29][32] - The company is expected to continue its share buyback and dividend distribution, supporting the "Buy" rating [29]

交银国际研究 公司更新 | 互联网 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 2 月 25 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 163.20 | 港元 184.00↑ | +12.7% | | | 网易云音乐 (9899 HK) | | | | | | 2024 下半年利润超预期；仍看好音乐付费长期增长潜力 | 财务数据一览 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 年结12月31日 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 收入 (百万人民币) | 7,867 | 7,950 | 8,008 | 8,700 | 9,382 | | 同比增长 (%) | -12.5 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 8.6 | 7.8 | | 净利润 (百万人民币) | 819 | 1,700 | 1,819 | 2,021 | 2,228 | | 每股盈利 (人民币) | 3.86 | 8.06 | 8.52 | 9.46 | 10.43 | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Ctrip Group (9961 HK), with a target price of HKD 605.00, indicating a potential upside of 31.0% from the current price of HKD 462.00 [1][4][17]. Core Insights - The report highlights that increased overseas investments may disrupt short-term profit margins, but there remains room for revenue growth. The company is expected to see significant revenue increases driven by domestic hotel bookings and outbound travel demand [2][7][8]. - The financial outlook for Ctrip Group shows a strong revenue growth trajectory, with projected revenues increasing from RMB 44.56 billion in 2023 to RMB 80.58 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 18.5% [3][19]. - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to grow from RMB 13.07 billion in 2023 to RMB 24.61 billion in 2027, with a notable increase in earnings per share (EPS) from RMB 19.48 to RMB 35.72 over the same period [3][19]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Ctrip Group are as follows: - 2023: RMB 44,562 million - 2024: RMB 53,377 million - 2025E: RMB 62,291 million - 2026E: RMB 71,022 million - 2027E: RMB 80,583 million - The company is expected to maintain a strong gross profit margin, with projections around 80.9% to 81.2% over the forecast period [3][19][20]. - The report anticipates a decline in net profit margin due to increased marketing expenses related to overseas brand promotion, with net profit margins expected to be around 25.9% in 2025 [7][19]. Market Performance - Ctrip Group's stock has shown a year-to-date decline of 14.44%, with a 52-week high of HKD 586.00 and a low of HKD 310.20 [6][8]. - The company has a market capitalization of approximately HKD 297.57 billion, with an average daily trading volume of 9.92 million shares [6][8]. Future Outlook - The report projects that Ctrip Group will continue to benefit from the recovery in travel demand, particularly in outbound travel, which is expected to exceed pre-pandemic levels [7][8]. - The company is also expected to leverage operational efficiencies and advancements in AI to mitigate short-term profit margin pressures [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for 康方生物 (9926 HK) with a target price of 87 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 26.7% from the current price of 68.65 HKD [4][5]. Core Insights - 康方生物 has entered a clinical trial collaboration with Pfizer to explore the potential of combining its PD-1/VEGF dual antibody, 依沃西, with multiple vedotin ADCs from Pfizer for treating various solid tumors. The clinical trials are expected to start in mid-2025, primarily focusing on Phase Ib/II studies [1][3]. - The collaboration is significant as Pfizer has a robust pipeline of vedotin ADCs, which have shown promising preliminary clinical results when combined with PD-1 targeted therapies, suggesting a synergistic anti-tumor effect [2][3]. - 康方生物 is also advancing its clinical trials in multiple indications, including biliary cancer, head and neck squamous cell carcinoma, pancreatic cancer, and triple-negative breast cancer, with several key catalysts expected in 2025 [3]. Summary by Sections - **Clinical Collaboration**: 康方生物's partnership with Pfizer aims to leverage the strengths of both companies in developing innovative cancer therapies, with a focus on the efficacy of 依沃西 in combination with vedotin ADCs [1][3]. - **Pipeline and Milestones**: Key milestones for 康方生物 in 2025 include the readout of the HARMONi trial for EGFR TKI-treated NSCLC, the initiation of the ADC combination trials, and ongoing patient enrollment in important Phase III studies [3]. - **Market Position**: 康方生物 is positioned as a key player in the oncology sector, with a strong emphasis on expanding its clinical development efforts and maintaining a competitive edge in the market [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [10] Core Insights - The company achieved revenue of 26.75 billion yuan in Q4 2024, a year-over-year decrease of 1.4% but a quarter-over-quarter increase of 2.1%. The gross profit was 16.27 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 60.8%, down 1.2 percentage points year-over-year. Adjusted net profit reached 9.68 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 31.2% and a net margin of 36.2%, up 9.2 percentage points year-over-year [6][10] - The launch of the PC game "Marvel Showdown" on December 6, 2024, significantly boosted user engagement, with over 10 million registered users within 72 hours and a current user base exceeding 40 million. The new game "Yanyun Sixteen Sounds" also performed well, achieving over 3 million downloads in four days and topping the iOS download charts for two weeks [6][10] - The company has a strong pipeline of games, including "Destiny: Rising" and "Marvel Secret Frenzy," which enhances its product matrix and long-term operational capabilities [8] - The profitability of the cloud music and Youdao businesses is improving, with cloud music subscription revenue growing by 22% year-over-year and a gross margin of 33.7%, up 7 percentage points year-over-year. Additionally, Youdao achieved its first annual operating profit due to AI integration [9] Financial Summary - The company’s projected revenues for CY 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 113.44 billion yuan, 122.35 billion yuan, and 132.98 billion yuan, respectively. The projected net profits (Non-GAAP) for the same years are 35.91 billion yuan, 39.16 billion yuan, and 42.96 billion yuan, respectively [10][13] - Key financial metrics include a return on equity (ROE) of 24% in 2024, projected to decline to 18% by 2027. The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to grow from 10.37 yuan in 2024 to 13.40 yuan in 2027 [13][15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for CSPC Pharmaceutical, indicating a potential return of over 15% within the next 12 months [19]. Core Insights - CSPC Pharmaceutical is expected to experience a decline in net profit for the fiscal year 2024, with a forecasted decrease of 26% year-on-year to 4.35 billion RMB, primarily due to weak sales in finished drugs [1][3]. - The company anticipates that new product sales will reach 2 billion RMB in fiscal year 2024, with plans to double this figure in fiscal year 2025, driven by several innovative products [2][3]. - Despite the challenges faced in traditional drug sales, CSPC is expected to recover positive sales and net profit growth in 2025, supported by new product contributions and licensing agreements [2][3]. Financial Summary - For fiscal year 2024, CSPC's revenue is projected to decline by 7.7% to 29.04 billion RMB, while net profit is expected to drop by 27.5% [3][14]. - The company forecasts a revenue increase of 4.6% and a net profit increase of 14.7% in fiscal year 2025, with a target price maintained at 5.97 HKD [3][4]. - The financial outlook includes a projected operating profit of 6.42 billion RMB for fiscal year 2025, reflecting a recovery from the previous year's decline [3][14]. Sales Performance - Finished drug sales are expected to decline by 7% in fiscal year 2024, with significant drops in oncology and cardiovascular drug sales due to pricing pressures [1][3]. - The oncology segment is projected to see a 28% decrease in revenue, while cardiovascular drug sales are expected to decline by 15% [1][3]. Product Development - CSPC has several innovative assets in clinical trials and has successfully licensed out multiple products, which are expected to contribute positively to future revenues [2][3]. - The company is preparing to present data from its EGFR ADC Phase I clinical trial at the upcoming AACR conference, which could further enhance its product pipeline [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for CSPC Pharmaceutical, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [17]. Core Insights - CSPC Pharmaceutical is experiencing an earnings decline primarily due to pricing pressure on its finished drug sales, with a forecasted net profit drop of 27.5% YoY for FY24 [7]. - The company anticipates a recovery in sales and net profit growth in FY25, driven by new product launches and out-licensing deals [7]. - The target price remains unchanged at HK$5.97, reflecting a potential upside of 18.8% from the current price of HK$5.03 [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue for FY22 was RMB 30,937 million, with a slight increase to RMB 31,450 million in FY23, but expected to decline to RMB 29,040 million in FY24, followed by a recovery to RMB 30,388 million in FY25 and RMB 31,300 million in FY26 [2][12]. - Net profit decreased from RMB 6,232.1 million in FY22 to RMB 6,072.7 million in FY23, with a significant drop expected to RMB 4,404.9 million in FY24, before rebounding to RMB 5,053.5 million in FY25 and RMB 5,135.5 million in FY26 [2][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to decline from RMB 0.51 in FY22 to RMB 0.38 in FY24, with a slight recovery to RMB 0.43 in FY25 and RMB 0.44 in FY26 [2][12]. Sales Performance - Finished drug sales are projected to decrease by 7% YoY to RMB 23.84 billion in FY24, with a notable 19.3% YoY decline in Q4 FY24 [7]. - Oncology revenue is expected to decline by 28%, while cardiovascular drug sales are forecasted to fall by 15% due to pricing pressures and exclusion from VBP rounds [7]. New Product Development - CSPC aims to achieve RMB 2.0 billion in sales from new products in FY24, with plans to double this revenue in FY25, focusing on products like Mingfule and Kelingda [7]. - The company has successfully out-licensed several innovative assets and has multiple products in clinical trials, indicating a strong pipeline for future growth [7].