Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Water Affairs (855 HK) with a target price of HK$6.23, implying a 43.6% upside potential from the current price of HK$4.34 [10][12][26] Core Views - FY25 interim results exceeded expectations, with operating revenue growth accelerating and a smaller-than-expected decline in shareholder net profit [9] - Water supply tariff adjustments have passed hearings in several regions, with over 20 cities initiating tariff adjustment procedures [9] - Direct drinking water and wastewater treatment operations showed strong growth, offsetting declines in construction revenue [9][10] - Capital expenditure is expected to decrease significantly from FY24 to FY26, supporting higher dividend payout ratios [10] Financial Performance Summary - FY25 interim revenue reached HK$5,953 million, with operating revenue up 16.6% YoY to HK$2,240 million [9] - Gross margin improved by 1.5 percentage points to 38.4% in 1H FY25 [9] - Shareholder net profit declined 8.5% YoY to HK$756 million in 1H FY25, better than expected [9] - Dividend payout ratio increased to 28.1%, with interim dividend maintained at HK$0.13 per share [9] Segment Performance Water Supply - Water supply volume increased 6.5% YoY to 720 million tons in 1H FY25 [9] - Water supply operating revenue grew 6.8% YoY to HK$1,724 million [9] - Tariff adjustments expected to drive 6.4%, 7.3%, and 2.5% YoY growth in water supply operating revenue for FY25-27 respectively [9] Direct Drinking Water - Direct drinking water operating revenue surged 57.1% YoY to HK$196 million in 1H FY25 [10] - Service population coverage expanded 42.5% YoY to 11.4 million people [10] - Projected YoY growth of 31.2%, 8.0%, and 5.0% in direct drinking water operating revenue for FY25-27 [10] Wastewater Treatment - Wastewater treatment operating revenue jumped 76.8% YoY to HK$315 million in 1H FY25 [10] - Growth driven by the operation of Huizhou ExxonMobil petrochemical wastewater treatment project [10] - Expected YoY growth of 64.8%, 7.3%, and 2.5% in wastewater treatment operating revenue for FY25-27 [10] Financial Forecasts - FY25-27 shareholder net profit forecasts revised upward by 11.9%, 2.1%, and 5.2% respectively [10] - EPS forecasts for FY25-27 adjusted to HK$0.90, HK$0.83, and HK$0.84 [10] - Dividend per share forecasts for FY25-27 increased to HK$0.27, HK$0.25, and HK$0.25 [10] - Capital expenditure expected to decrease from HK$5,330 million in FY24 to approximately HK$3,600 million in FY25 and HK$2,000 million in FY26 [10] Valuation Metrics - Current P/E ratios: 3.8x (FY24), 4.6x (FY25), 4.8x (FY26) [8] - Current P/B ratio: 0.55x [8] - Dividend yield: 7.8% (FY24), 6.5% (FY25), 6.2% (FY26) [8] - Target P/E multiple: 7.5x FY25 earnings [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Overseas Development (0688.HK) [3] Core Views - The company has shown a significant improvement in sales, with a total sales amount of 270.4 billion yuan for the period from January to November 2024, representing a year-on-year decline of 5.8%, which is an improvement compared to the previous months [1] - The company is focusing on acquiring core land reserves in first-tier cities, with a total land acquisition cost of 23.5 billion yuan from January to October 2024, a decrease of 78.5% year-on-year [1] - The average selling price of the company's properties increased by 14.1% year-on-year to 26,471 yuan per square meter, driven by the sales growth of high-end properties in core cities [1] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - The company achieved a total sales amount of 270.4 billion yuan from January to November 2024, with a notable recovery in sales in October and November, where sales increased by 66.0% and 30.7% year-on-year respectively [1] - The company ranked second in the "Top 100 Real Estate Companies" sales list by CRIC, outperforming the industry average decline of 32.9% [1] Land Acquisition Strategy - The company has increased its focus on acquiring land in first-tier cities, with 57.8% of the total land acquisition cost of 13.6 billion yuan allocated to first-tier cities [1] - Recent land acquisitions include a residential plot in Shanghai for 3.65 billion yuan and a group plot in Beijing for 15.33 billion yuan [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 109.58 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.7% year-on-year, with a significant drop in the third quarter revenue by 19.8% [1] - The operating profit for the first three quarters was 18.18 billion yuan, down 19.6% year-on-year, with an operating profit margin of 16.6%, reflecting continued pressure on profit margins [1] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to 2.24 yuan, 2.34 yuan, and 2.50 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 5.6, 5.3, and 5.0 times [2][3] - The report expresses optimism about the company's ability to increase market share and enhance competitiveness in high-end residential development, maintaining the "Buy" rating [1][3]

证券研究报告 投资要点： 商贸零售 | 专业连锁Ⅱ 港股|首次覆盖报告 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------| | | | | hyzqdatemark 2024 年 12 月 02 日 | 名创优品(09896.HK) | | 投资评级： 增持（首次） | ——海外持续高增，IP 战略+谷子经济打造持续影响力 | 2024Q3 公司实现营收 45.23 亿元，同比增长 19.3%；实现归母净利润 6.42 亿元， 同比增长 4.8%；实现经调净利润 6.86 亿元，同比增长 6.9%。2024 年前三季度， 公司实现营收 122.81 亿元，同比增长 22.8%；实现归母净利润 18.12 亿元，同比增 长 12.0%；实现经调净利润 19.28 亿元，同比增长 13.7%，剔除净汇兑亏损及收益 影响后经调整净利润为 19.50 亿元，同比增长 18.3%。 联系人 证券分析师 朱芸 SAC：S1350524070001 zhuy ...

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - JD Group's Q3 2024 revenue reached 260.4 billion yuan (yoy +5.1%), with Non-GAAP operating profit at 13.1 billion yuan (yoy +17.9%) and Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders at 13.2 billion yuan (yoy +23.9%) [1] - JD Retail's operating margin remained stable at 5.2% yoy, with a sequential improvement of 1.3 percentage points [1] - Free cash flow for the trailing twelve months (TTM) as of September 2024 was 33.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 22 billion yuan from June 2024 and 5.8 billion yuan yoy, primarily due to delayed accounts payable and inventory buildup for the trade-in program [1] - The trade-in policy drove a rebound in 3C and home appliance revenue, with 3C and home appliance sales reaching 122.6 billion yuan (yoy +2.7%), reversing the -4.6% decline in Q2 2024 [1] - JD Logistics saw a significant improvement in profitability, with operating profit surging 624% yoy to 2.09 billion yuan and operating margin increasing to 4.7% from 0.7% in Q3 2023 [1] - JD's Double 11 shopping festival in 2024 exceeded expectations, with active users growing by double digits, daily active buyers increasing by over 20%, and purchase frequency also growing by double digits [1] Business Performance by Segment JD Retail - Revenue: 225 billion yuan (yoy +6.1%) [1] - Operating profit: 11.6 billion yuan (yoy +5.5%) [1] - Operating margin: 5.2% (flat yoy) [1] JD Logistics - Revenue: 44.4 billion yuan (yoy +6.6%) [1] - Operating profit: 2.09 billion yuan (yoy +624%) [1] - Operating margin: 4.7% (up from 0.7% in Q3 2023) [1] New Businesses (Including Dada, Jingxi, Overseas, and JD Property) - Revenue: 5 billion yuan (yoy -25.7%) [1] - Operating loss: 600 million yuan [1] Key Strategies - Low-price strategy: JD has implemented a matrix of low-price activities, including the "JD Super 18" event every month, weekly "Black Friday" promotions, and daily "Midnight Sale" events [1] - Trade-in program: The policy has successfully driven growth in the 3C and home appliance categories [1] Financial Forecasts - Revenue growth for 2024-2026 is projected at 5.26%, 5.09%, and 5.00%, respectively [1] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 45.7 billion yuan, 49.2 billion yuan, and 52.9 billion yuan for 2024-2026 [1] - Long-term profit margin target is set at high single digits [1] Revenue Breakdown by Category Electronics and Home Appliances - Revenue: 553.3 billion yuan (2024E), 568.3 billion yuan (2025E), 585.3 billion yuan (2026E) [6] - Growth rate: 2.7% (2024E), 2.7% (2025E), 3.0% (2026E) [6] Daily Necessities - Revenue: 360 billion yuan (2024E), 387 billion yuan (2025E), 414.1 billion yuan (2026E) [6] - Growth rate: 8.3% (2024E), 7.5% (2025E), 7.0% (2026E) [6] Platform and Advertising Services - Revenue: 88 billion yuan (2024E), 91.6 billion yuan (2025E), 95.2 billion yuan (2026E) [6] - Growth rate: 3.9% (2024E), 4.0% (2025E), 4.0% (2026E) [6] Logistics and Other Services - Revenue: 140.3 billion yuan (2024E), 152.9 billion yuan (2025E), 165.2 billion yuan (2026E) [6] - Growth rate: 9.0% (2024E), 9.0% (2025E), 8.0% (2026E) [6] Key Assumptions - Electronics and home appliances: Continued growth driven by trade-in policies and government subsidies, with 3C and home appliance revenue expected to increase in Q4 2024 [5] - Daily necessities: Lower shipping thresholds and optimized platform rules are expected to sustain a 7%+ GMV growth rate for 2025-2026 [5]

Investment Rating - The report does not specify a clear investment rating for the company [1]. Core Insights - The company is initiating a restricted stock incentive plan, granting 12.34 million shares at a price of HKD 6.65 per share, reflecting confidence in its development [1][2]. - The performance targets for the incentive plan are ambitious, with revenue goals set at HKD 1.5 billion, HKD 1.75 billion, and HKD 2 billion for the years 2025-2028, indicating a projected growth rate of 50% to 100% [2]. - Strong sales growth of the drug Acalbrutinib, with Q3 sales reaching HKD 276 million, a 75.5% increase year-over-year, and total sales for the first three quarters at HKD 693 million, a 45% increase [3]. - The company is advancing its pipeline with two TYK2 inhibitors, with ongoing clinical trials showing promising results [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company expects revenues of HKD 1.01 billion, HKD 1.54 billion, and HKD 2.09 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 37.08%, 52.53%, and 35.54% [5][10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to improve from a loss of HKD 631.26 million in 2024 to a profit of HKD 232.04 million in 2026, indicating a significant turnaround [5][10]. Product Pipeline - Acalbrutinib is the first and only BTK inhibitor approved for MZL in China, with ongoing clinical trials for various indications, including PPMS and ITP [3]. - The company is in the first tier of domestic development for TYK2 inhibitors, with two products making significant progress in clinical trials [3]. Market Position - The report highlights the company's strong market position in the hematology field and its potential to lead in the treatment of autoimmune diseases [3][9].

[Table_Page] 公告点评|消费者服务Ⅱ [Table_Contacts] 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 【广发 传 媒 & 海 外 】 美 团 -W （03690.HK） 本地商业效率提升，出海有望成为增长动能 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 24Q3 业绩：公司发布 24Q3 业绩公告，Q3 实现营收 935.77 亿元（人 民币，下同），同增 22.38%；GAAP 归母净利润 128.65 亿元；NON- GAAP 净利润为 128.29 亿元，NON-GAAP 归母净利率为 13.71%。分 业务看，24Q3 核心本地商业实现收入 693.73 亿元（YOY+20.25%）， OP 145.82 亿元（YOY+44.44%）。新业务收入 242.04 亿元（YOY+ 28.91%），新业务 OP-10.26 亿元。期间费用来看，公司 Q3 销售费用 为 179.53 亿元，研发费用为 52.93 亿元，管理费用为 27.98 亿元。 ⚫ 本地核心商业强韧劲，新业务持续减亏。24Q3，即时配送交易单数为 70.78 亿单，YoY+14.54%。外卖业务呈现新的增长机 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [2]. Core Insights - The company, Nanxun Holdings (01982.HK), achieved a total revenue of HK$ 438.79 million for the first half of the fiscal year ending September 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.2% and an increase in gross margin to 19.9% [2][6]. - The company declared an interim dividend of HK$ 0.098 per share [2]. - Sales of knitted products experienced a slight decline, with a 5.0% decrease in sales volume compared to the same period last year, despite a positive impact from an increase in average selling prices [2]. - The cashmere yarn business showed significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 26.8% to HK$ 420 million, driven by both domestic and export demand [2]. - The company is focusing on optimizing operational efficiency, benefiting from improved operational efficiency in existing factories in Vietnam and rental income from the central factory [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for the fiscal year 2023/24 is projected at HK$ 4,378.9 million, with a slight decline expected in sales volume for 2024/25 [2][9]. - The gross profit for the fiscal year 2023/24 is expected to be HK$ 774.2 million, with a gross margin of 17.7% [9]. - Net profit for the fiscal year 2023/24 is projected at HK$ 380.7 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 140.5% [9]. Market Position - The company has a market capitalization of HK$ 2.1 billion and a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.5x [6]. - The company is positioned within a competitive landscape, with peers such as Shenzhou International and others showing varying financial metrics [6]. Operational Insights - The company is experiencing challenges in the fabric business, with ongoing concerns about the absorption of new production capacity [2]. - The company is not planning to reduce its dividend payout ratio despite the pressures from new factory setups in Vietnam [2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a stock rating of NR (Not Rated) for Nameson (01982.HK) [3]. Core Insights - Nameson reported a 2.2% year-over-year increase in revenue for the first half of FY 2024/25, achieving a gross margin of 19.9% [3]. - The company announced a dividend of HKD 0.098 per share [4]. - There was a 5.0% year-over-year decline in revenue from knitwear products, attributed to a decrease in sales volume despite a slight rebound in average selling price (ASP) [4]. - The cashmere yarn business showed strong performance with a 26.8% year-over-year growth, reaching HKD 418.5 million [4]. - The company provided conservative guidance indicating a potential slight drop in sales volume for FY 2024/25 [4]. Financial Performance - Revenue for FY 2022/23 was HKD 4,602.3 million, with a year-over-year growth of 13.9% [9]. - The gross profit for FY 2022/23 was HKD 745.5 million, with a gross margin of 16.2% [9]. - Net profit for FY 2022/23 was HKD 158.3 million, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 42.6% [9]. - The company reported a return on equity (ROE) of 6.2% for FY 2022/23, which is expected to improve to 15.0% in FY 2023/24 [12]. Market Position and Competitors - Nameson has a market capitalization of HKD 2.1 billion and a P/E ratio of 5.5 [7]. - The average P/E ratio among peers is 10.1, indicating that Nameson is trading at a discount compared to its competitors [7]. - The company has gained two new customers in the EU and Canada, which may contribute positively to future revenue [4]. Operational Efficiency - The report highlights improving operating efficiency in existing factories in Vietnam and rental income from a factory in China as key factors for potential margin improvement [4]. - The company is facing short-term headwinds due to new factories for knitwear and fabric products [4].

Investment Rating - Outperform rating maintained for Lenovo Group (00992 HK) [2][5][13] Core Views - AI PC penetration accelerating, driving earnings growth [2] - Smart Devices and Infrastructure Solutions Groups performed strongly [2][8] - AI integration with products deepening, AI PC accounted for 14% of China notebook shipments in FY2Q2025 [2][8] - Smartphone overseas markets growing rapidly, Motorola achieved double-digit growth [2][8] - Infrastructure Solutions Group revenue surged 65 1% YoY in FY2Q2025, losses narrowing [2][8] Financial Performance - FY1H2025 revenue reached $33 297 billion, up 22% YoY [2][8] - FY1H2025 net profit was $602 million, up 41% YoY [2][8] - FY2Q2025 revenue was $17 850 billion, up 24% YoY and 16% QoQ [2][8] - FY2Q2025 net profit was $359 million, up 44% YoY and 47% QoQ [2][8] - Smart Devices Group revenue was $24 936 billion, up 15% YoY [2][8] - Infrastructure Solutions Group revenue was $6 465 billion, up 65% YoY [2][8] - Solutions Services Group revenue was $4 050 billion, up 12% YoY [2][8] Profitability - FY2Q2025 gross margin was 15 7%, down 0 9 ppts QoQ [2][9] - FY2Q2025 operating expense ratio was 13 2%, down 0 8 ppts QoQ [2][9] - FY2Q2025 net margin was 2 2%, up 0 5 ppts QoQ [2][9] Financial Forecasts - FY2025-2027 revenue forecast raised to 660/719/767 billion yuan [13] - FY2025-2027 net profit forecast adjusted to 12 50/13 90/15 78 billion yuan [13] - FY2025-2027 PE ratios estimated at 12/10/9x [13] Business Segments - Smart Devices Group benefited from overseas smartphone expansion and premium PC shipments [2][8] - Infrastructure Solutions Group driven by AI server demand and Neptune liquid cooling solution [2][8] - Solutions Services Group saw slower growth in high-margin business [2][9]

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