Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4][145]. Core Insights - Horizon Robotics is a leading supplier of ADAS and AD solutions, having established a significant market presence since its founding in 2015. The company went public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in October 2024 [1][25]. - The smart driving industry is expected to grow significantly, with increasing penetration rates for ADAS and AD technologies. By 2030, the market for high-level autonomous driving in China is projected to exceed 400 billion RMB [2][54]. - The company focuses on "soft and hard synergy" in the high-barrier smart driving chip sector, leveraging its first-mover advantage to enhance market share [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Horizon Robotics is recognized as a top-tier provider of advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) and high-level autonomous driving (AD) solutions, serving major OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers in the automotive industry [25][27]. - The company has achieved a leading market share in L2 and below (33.73%) and L2+ and above (14.7%) chip markets in China [27][29]. Industry Outlook - The smart driving industry has vast potential, with policies from various countries promoting automotive intelligence. The penetration rate for L3 autonomous driving is expected to increase significantly with the introduction of relevant regulations [2][54]. - The global market for smart vehicles is projected to reach 81.2% penetration for ADAS and AD by 2026, with sales expected to reach 20.4 million units [2][54]. Competitive Advantages - The company has a strong product lineup, including the "Journey" series of chips, which cater to a wide range of driving scenarios from L2 to L4 [3][77]. - Horizon Robotics has established a flexible business model that includes product solutions, algorithm licensing, and technical services, which are becoming the main revenue sources [30][31]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 23.76 billion, 35.60 billion, and 53.58 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 53%, 50%, and 51% [4][126]. - The company is expected to narrow its losses over the same period, with net profits projected at -64.37 million, -17.58 million, and -3.00 million RMB [4][126]. Valuation - The company's current market valuation is 475 billion HKD, with projected price-to-sales (P/S) ratios of 19x, 13x, and 8x for 2024-2026, indicating a valuation below that of comparable companies [4][145]. - The report suggests that the company possesses a certain level of scarcity and premium potential due to its leading position in the ADAS and AD solution market [4][145].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports [1]. Core Views - Anta's 4Q24 performance exceeded market expectations, with significant improvement in Fila's sales, alleviating concerns about its growth slowdown. This is expected to stimulate a short-term rebound in stock price [1]. - The company's 2024 performance is largely determined, aligning with previous forecasts, and despite challenges in 2025, Anta is expected to achieve higher sales growth than peers through continuous store upgrades and product adjustments [1][2]. - The report highlights the potential for acquisitions in 2025, which could further enhance growth amid uncertain market demand [2]. Financial Performance Summary - Anta's 4Q24 total revenue increased by a high single-digit percentage year-on-year, with Fila's revenue also showing a significant recovery compared to 3Q24 [10]. - The forecast for 2024 anticipates a 12% year-on-year revenue growth, with Anta brand revenue expected to grow nearly 10% and Fila brand revenue projected to increase by 6% [10]. - The report predicts a core net profit of RMB 11.886 billion for 2024, reflecting a 16.1% year-on-year increase [12][15]. - The target price for Anta is set at HKD 93.0, indicating a potential upside of 23.5% from the current price of HKD 75.3 [4][5]. Brand Performance Insights - Fila's 4Q24 revenue growth was significantly better than the previous quarter, with a year-on-year increase in the high single digits [10]. - Descente and Kolon are expected to maintain high growth rates in 2025, contributing to overall group profitability [2]. - The report notes that Anta's online discount levels improved slightly, while offline discounts remained stable, indicating effective inventory management [10]. Market Position and Strategy - Anta is recognized as one of the best-performing domestic brands in the Chinese sportswear market, attributed to management's proactive store renovations and expansion into emerging e-commerce channels [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining a stable inventory turnover ratio and discount levels to support profitability [10]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024 are set at RMB 69.627 billion, with a gross profit margin expected to remain stable at around 62.6% [12][21]. - The report outlines a gradual increase in net profit and earnings per share over the next few years, with a projected core net profit of RMB 14.240 billion in 2025 [12][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve high-quality growth across multiple brands in 2025, with a slight downward adjustment in profit forecasts due to uncertainties in the consumption environment [4]. - Retail sales for all brands improved sequentially in Q4 2024, with FILA, Descente, and KOLON exceeding expectations [4][3]. - The company is focusing on differentiated store formats and expanding overseas, which is anticipated to drive growth [4][3]. Summary by Sections Brand Performance - In Q4 2024, retail sales for Anta brand, FILA, and other brands saw year-on-year growth in high single digits to 50-55% [1][2]. - Anta brand maintained a healthy inventory turnover ratio of around 5 months, with retail discounts at approximately 72% [1]. - FILA brand's retail sales performance exceeded expectations, with discounts stable at 74-75% and a similar inventory turnover ratio [2]. Multi-Brand Strategy - The company is leveraging a multi-brand strategy, with Anta's offline stores evolving towards more refined service offerings for different consumer segments [3]. - The launch of popular products, such as the PG7 running shoes and Storm甲 jackets, has contributed to strong sales [3]. - Descente and KOLON brands achieved significant sales growth, with respective year-on-year increases of 45-50% and 60-65% in Q4 2024 [2]. Financial Forecasts - The company has slightly adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, with net profit estimates reduced by 2%/4%/4% respectively [4]. - Projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are 4.78, 4.85, and 5.42 RMB, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 15, 14, and 13 [4][5]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 69.39 billion RMB in 2024 to 76.38 billion RMB in 2025, with a growth rate of 10.1% [5][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][4][10] Core Views - In Q4 2024, Anta's main brand recorded high single-digit growth, while FILA achieved high single-digit growth, and other brands saw a growth of 50-55%. For the entire year of 2024, Anta's main brand also recorded high single-digit growth, FILA achieved mid-single-digit growth, and other brands grew by 40-45% [2][4][5] - The new retail model and multi-brand matrix are expected to drive the brand to maintain industry-leading growth rates. Despite a high base in Q4, the group's various brands still maintained sequential growth, outperforming peers, with stable discount rates and healthy inventory levels [4][8][10] Summary by Sections Q4 and Full Year Performance - Q4 2024 saw a sequential increase in revenue growth despite a high base, with FILA performing better than expected and outdoor brands maintaining rapid growth. Inventory levels across brands are healthy, and discount rates remain stable [3][5] - Anta's Q4 revenue growth was high single-digit, with nearly 10% growth for the full year. The inventory-to-sales ratio remained around 5, indicating a healthy level, and online retail discounts narrowed [5][9] - FILA's Q4 revenue growth was high single-digit, with mid-single-digit growth for the full year, maintaining a healthy inventory-to-sales ratio and stable discount levels [5][6] Brand Performance - Other brands recorded a revenue growth of 50-55% in Q4, with annual growth of 40-45%, particularly notable for the high growth rates of Descente (45-50%) and Kolon (60-65%) [6][10] - The "Super Anta" new retail format, launched in mid-2024, is expected to further drive growth in 2025, with plans to open 160 stores, significantly increasing store efficiency [7][8] Financial Forecasts - The profit forecast for Anta Sports estimates net profits of 135 billion, 134 billion, and 147 billion yuan for 2024-2026, respectively. Adjusted net profits, excluding one-time gains from Amer Sports' listing, are expected to be approximately 120 billion, 134 billion, and 147 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 16.8%, 11.8%, and 9.9% [4][10][11] - The reasonable valuation range is maintained at 103-112 HKD, corresponding to a PE ratio of 20-22x for 2025 [4][10]

Investment Rating - Tencent Holdings (00700 HK) maintains an "Outperform" rating [1] Core Views - Tencent being added to the US Department of Defense's Chinese Military Companies (CMC) list does not impact its core business [1][3] - The CMC list is relatively mild compared to other sanctions lists and primarily affects US Department of Defense procurement matters [3][7] - Tencent's overseas revenue, mainly from gaming, accounts for 29% of its gaming revenue and 9% of total revenue in 2024 [3][7] - Tencent has increased its share buybacks, repurchasing HKD 1 5 billion on January 7 and 18 2025, signaling confidence in its business [4][15] Business Analysis Overseas Gaming - Tencent's overseas gaming revenue heavily relies on acquired subsidiaries such as Supercell (Finland), Riot Games (US), and Miniclip (Europe) [3][7] - Key acquisitions include Riot Games (100% ownership, acquired in 2008 2011 2015), Supercell (84 3% ownership, acquired in 2016), and Miniclip (largest shareholder since 2015) [8] Growth Potential - Tencent has significant growth potential in areas such as WeChat ecosystem monetization and AI integration [4][16] - E-commerce: Tencent has shown potential in e-commerce and local life services, with the "Gift Sending" feature gaining popularity in 2024 [16] - AI: Increased capital expenditure on AI, with products like "Yuanbao" and "ima" launched, and AI integration into WeChat enhancing advertising business growth [16] Financial Projections - Adjusted net profit for 2024 2026 is projected to be RMB 2198 billion, RMB 2482 billion, and RMB 2729 billion, respectively [16] - PE valuations for 2024 2026 are 16x, 14x, and 13x, indicating historically low valuations [16] Historical Context - Similar cases like Xiaomi and SMIC show that companies removed from the CMC list often experience stock price recovery [13] - Xiaomi was removed from the CCMC list within 4 months of filing a lawsuit, leading to a 9 04% stock price increase over four days [13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Insights - In December 2024, the company achieved a record sales volume of 59,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.2% and a month-on-month growth of 20.1%. The total sales for the year exceeded 500,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 33.1% [2][4][6]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - December 2024 sales reached 58,513 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 16.2% and a month-on-month increase of 20.1%. Cumulatively, sales for the year amounted to 501,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 33.1% [4][6]. - In Q4 2024, the company delivered 159,000 vehicles, which is a year-on-year increase of 20.4% and a month-on-month increase of 3.8% [6]. Strategic Initiatives - The "Dual Energy Strategy" is being implemented, with rapid expansion of supercharging stations and enhancements in smart technology to improve user experience. As of December 31, 2024, there were 1,727 supercharging stations and 9,100 charging piles in operation [6]. - The company is set to launch the OTA 7.0 version of its vehicle system in January 2025, which will enhance its autonomous driving capabilities [6]. Product and Market Positioning - The company has a clear product roadmap with a lineup of four range-extended electric vehicle models and one high-voltage pure electric model, targeting a market segment above 200,000 [6]. - As of December 2024, the company has established 502 retail centers across 150 cities, with an increase of 27 centers from the previous month [6]. Financial Projections - The projected net profit for the company from 2024 to 2026 is estimated at 81.0 billion, 146.8 billion, and 200.8 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 22.8X, 12.6X, and 9.2X [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Insights - In December, the company achieved a record monthly delivery of 42,517 vehicles, representing a year-on-year growth of 128.4% and a month-on-month increase of 5.8% [3][6]. - For the entire year, the company delivered over 294,000 vehicles, exceeding its annual target of 250,000 by 17% and showing a year-on-year growth of 103.8% [6][7]. - The company is expected to continue its strong sales growth due to a robust new car cycle domestically and a partnership with Stellantis for overseas expansion, which opens up global sales opportunities [6][7]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - December deliveries reached 42,517 units, marking a 128.4% increase year-on-year and a 5.8% increase month-on-month [3][6]. - Cumulative sales for the year totaled 294,000 units, surpassing the target by 17% [6][7]. Future Outlook - The company aims for a sales target of 500,000 units in 2025, indicating a continued high growth trajectory [6][7]. - The introduction of new models and expansion into international markets are key strategies for future growth [6][7]. Product and Market Strategy - The company plans to launch 2-3 new products globally each year over the next three years, with a focus on the B series models priced between 100,000 to 150,000 yuan [6][7]. - The domestic market strategy includes a "1+N" channel development model, with a significant number of sales and service outlets established [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports [7] Core Views - Anta Sports demonstrated excellent revenue growth in Q4 2024, with Anta brand revenue increasing by high single digits year-on-year, Fila brand revenue also growing by high single digits, and other brands achieving a revenue growth of 50% to 55% [1] - The overall revenue growth for Anta Sports in 2024 is projected at 13%, with an expected profit growth of 29.5% [4] Summary by Sections Anta Brand - E-commerce business showed strong growth, with overall revenue growth driven by product and brand enhancements, including the launch of the high-cost performance running shoe PG7 [2] - The inventory-to-sales ratio is expected to be around 5, indicating a healthy level, with discounts remaining stable [2] - Anta aims to enhance its brand strength and expand into Southeast Asia and Europe in the long term [2] Fila Brand - Fila's Q4 revenue growth was better than expected, with a year-on-year increase of high single digits, showing significant improvement from Q3 [3] - The inventory-to-sales ratio is also projected to be around 5, indicating a healthy inventory level with minimal discount pressure [3] - Fila is positioned for healthy operations and potential high-quality growth as the consumer environment improves [3] Other Brands - Other brands, including Descente and Kolon Sport, achieved a revenue growth of 50% to 55% in Q4 2024, indicating strong growth potential [4] - The report anticipates a revenue growth of 13% and a profit growth of 29.5% for the company in 2024, factoring in contributions from Amer and non-cash gains [4] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are 13.258 billion, 13.635 billion, and 15.609 billion yuan respectively, with a PE ratio of 14 times for 2025 [4]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][8]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a high-end beauty brand, leading the trend of Eastern aesthetics. It has a strong personal IP and a well-established product matrix, focusing on both color cosmetics and skincare [2][6][23]. - The Chinese beauty market is experiencing rapid growth, particularly in the high-end segment where domestic brands are gaining traction. The company is expected to benefit from this trend, with significant revenue growth projected for the coming years [8][51][56]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company was founded in 2000 by renowned makeup artist Mao Geping and has grown into a leading high-end domestic beauty group. The founders hold a combined 47.9% stake in the company, ensuring stable governance and strategic continuity [6][27]. - The company reported a revenue of 2.89 billion yuan in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35% from 2021 to 2023 [34]. Market Potential - The overall Chinese beauty market is projected to grow significantly, with the market size expected to reach 876.3 billion yuan by 2028, driven by a CAGR of approximately 8.6% [51][54]. - The skincare segment is particularly strong, accounting for nearly 80% of the beauty market, while the color cosmetics market is also expanding rapidly [54][56]. Competitive Advantages - The company's core competitive edge lies in its unique combination of personal IP, product offerings, distribution channels, and marketing strategies that resonate with consumers [7][10]. - The product matrix includes a wide range of color cosmetics and skincare products, with star products like the "Light Sensation No-Trace Powder" and "Luxury Caviar Mask" driving sales [7][100][105]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 40.2 billion yuan, 52.7 billion yuan, and 64.2 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 39.36%, 31.08%, and 21.72% [8][145]. - The projected net profit for the same period is 9.3 billion yuan, 12.4 billion yuan, and 15.4 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 40.56%, 33.52%, and 23.80% [8][145]. Sales Channels - The company employs a multi-channel sales strategy, with a strong emphasis on direct sales. As of 2024, offline sales accounted for 46.1% of total revenue, while online sales reached 38.8% [112][116]. - The company has successfully expanded its presence in both offline and online markets, leveraging platforms like Douyin and Tmall to enhance brand visibility and sales [134][138]. Brand Strategy - The company aims to enhance its brand reputation through strategic brand management and product innovation, focusing on high-quality offerings that cater to the needs of Chinese consumers [139][140]. - The brand's marketing strategy includes engaging with consumers through social media and influencer partnerships, which have significantly increased brand awareness and consumer interaction [119][121].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [3][4]. Core Views - The company is expected to see significant growth in its revenue and net profit, with a projected net profit of 1.28 billion, 2.56 billion, and 4.61 billion for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 171.01%, 99.97%, and 80.03% [4][5]. - The company is benefiting from strong demand in the instant delivery sector, particularly in the tea and coffee markets, with a 51% year-on-year revenue growth in lower-tier markets and a 60% increase in tea delivery revenue [4][5]. - The expansion of the company's operational capacity and the increase in order density are expected to enhance profitability as scale effects are realized [4]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue (in million) is projected to grow from 12,400 in 2023 to 22,364 in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20.33% [2]. - Net profit is expected to turn positive in 2023 with 47 million, reaching 461 million by 2026, indicating a strong recovery trajectory [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.06 in 2023 to 0.50 in 2026 [2].