电子 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 7 月 21 日 002938.SZ 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 47.46 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 33.3 54.7 67.9 26.3 相对深圳成指 25.1 47.4 56.4 3.4 发行股数 (百万) 2,318.05 流通股 (百万) 2,306.78 总市值 (人民币 百万) 110,014.70 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) 1,004.54 主要股东 美港实业有限公司 66.17% (30%) (18%) (6%) 7% 19% 31% Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 鹏鼎控股 深圳成指 资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银证券 以 2025 年 7 月 18 日收市价为标准 相关研究报告 《鹏鼎控股》20250411 《鹏鼎控股》20241031 《鹏鼎控股》20240815 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.7 billion to 4.2 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 327.68% to 385.47% [4][5] - The significant performance increase is driven by the continuous growth in AI-related computing power investments, product structure optimization, and sustained demand for high-speed products [5] - The company's Thailand factory has been operating efficiently since its first phase began in the first half of 2023, with the second phase expected to release capacity quickly in early 2025, focusing on the mass production of 1.6T modules [5] - The company has made breakthroughs in optical module technology, successfully launching industry-leading 800G/1.6T optical module products, which are expected to become a significant part of sales revenue in 2025 [6][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenues of 22.15 billion, 31.91 billion, and 40.86 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 8.47, 11.99, and 15.16 yuan [8][10] - The expected growth rates for revenue are 156.1% in 2025, 44.1% in 2026, and 28.0% in 2027 [10] Production Capacity - The Thailand factory is a core part of the company's globalization strategy, enhancing product delivery capabilities in overseas markets, particularly for North American cloud vendors [5] Technological Advancements - The company is actively investing in next-generation technology research and development, positioning itself competitively in the CPO technology field [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking the first coverage [2][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights the focus on innovative antibacterial treatments, particularly the commercialization of the core product, Contizole, and the ongoing development of its pipeline products [8][9][11]. - The company is positioned in the growing market of antibiotic resistance, with a strong emphasis on addressing clinical challenges through differentiated innovation [13][20]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Projected revenues for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 1.74 billion, 2.05 billion, and 2.49 billion CNY respectively, reflecting a growth trajectory despite initial cash flow delays typical of biotech firms [10][46]. - The report utilizes a DCF valuation method, indicating that the current market valuation is relatively undervalued based on the company's growth potential and market position [10][21]. Business Overview - The company has established a solid domestic business foundation, with its core product, Contizole, showing significant sales growth of 88.3% in 2023 and projected continued growth of 43.51% in 2024 [4][27]. - The company has expanded its hospital coverage to 582 hospitals, with 150 hospitals formally approved for bulk procurement, enhancing market penetration [4][27]. Pipeline Development - The report details the ongoing global Phase III clinical trials for MRX-4, which is aimed at treating diabetic foot infections, and highlights the successful completion of Phase I trials for MRX-5 and MRX-8 [7][41][43]. - The company is actively pursuing international clinical development for its innovative products, with MRX-5 receiving FDA orphan drug designation, indicating strong potential for market entry [7][41][43]. Competitive Positioning - The company is strategically positioned in the antibacterial sector, focusing on multi-drug resistant bacteria, and has developed a comprehensive product matrix to address various infection types [20][21]. - The innovative approach includes a dual coverage strategy for Gram-positive and Gram-negative bacteria, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [9][20].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company [6]. Core Views - The company is a leading domestic manufacturer of lithium battery separators, actively expanding its global presence and product offerings in response to the solid-state battery trend [9][12]. - The company has established a strategic partnership with Zhongke Shenlan to develop solid-state electrolyte membranes, enhancing its product portfolio [35][40]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for solid-state batteries, with significant investments in production capacity planned for the coming years [45][49]. Summary by Sections 1. Traditional Separator Leader, Diversifying Future - The company has over 20 years of experience in the separator industry, being the first in China to export both dry and wet process separators [9]. - In 2024, the company achieved a market share of 17.6% in separator shipments, maintaining its position as the second-largest domestic supplier [12]. 2. Embracing the Solid-State Battery Wave - The solid-state battery trend is gaining momentum, with significant government support and industry developments [20]. - The company has launched innovative rigid skeleton separators and various polymer electrolyte separators, which are expected to reduce costs and enhance product value [9][35]. 3. Welcoming the AI Era, Acquiring Quality Overseas Assets - The company is acquiring leading global semiconductor equipment and components firms to strengthen its position in the semiconductor and new energy materials sectors [9]. 4. Forward-Looking Layout of Embodied Intelligence, Positioning in Electronic Skin - The electronic skin market is projected to grow significantly, with the company investing in related technologies and partnerships to capture this emerging opportunity [9]. 5. Investment Recommendations - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 45 billion, 54 billion, and 68 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 4.3 billion, 5.4 billion, and 6.5 billion yuan [9]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, supported by its technological advantages and strategic initiatives in solid-state and semiconductor sectors [9][45].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state the investment rating for Sinochem International [2][3] Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading domestic epoxy resin enterprise with a fully integrated industrial chain for various chemical products, including epoxy resin, ABS, and nylon 66 [2][4] - The company plans to acquire 100% equity of Nantong Xingchen, which specializes in manufacturing and R&D of new chemical materials, enhancing its production capacity significantly [3][5] - The first half of 2025 saw the company facing losses, with net profit expected between -807 million and -949 million yuan, but operational efficiencies are beginning to show as losses from new facilities have narrowed [3][5] - Revenue from the basic raw materials and intermediates sector is projected to grow by 25-35%, while the high-performance materials sector is experiencing a decline in revenue [3][5] - The company has successfully increased production capacity for high-performance materials, breaking the monopoly of multinational companies on key raw material technologies [3][5] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Sinochem International is recognized as a leading player in the epoxy resin market, with a comprehensive product range that includes propylene, phenol, and functional fine chemicals [2][4] Acquisition Plans - The company intends to acquire Nantong Xingchen to bolster its capabilities in producing PBT, PPE, and other chemical materials, with a total production capacity exceeding 400,000 tonnes [3][5] Financial Performance - The company reported a projected net loss for the first half of 2025, but improvements in operational efficiency are noted, with a narrowing of losses from new installations [3][5] Sector Performance - The basic raw materials and intermediates sector is expected to see significant revenue growth, while the high-performance materials sector is facing challenges with declining revenues [3][5] Production Capacity - The company has enhanced its production capabilities in high-performance materials, achieving full capacity in its para-aramid production line and successfully completing expansion projects [3][5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [4][9]. Core Views - The company's main business is expected to stabilize and recover, with innovative anti-cancer drugs showing improved efficacy and reduced toxicity, suggesting that the platform may have been validated [4][11]. - The impact of the national procurement on the core product, Leflunomide, is gradually diminishing, and with new products being launched, the company's performance is anticipated to return to a growth trajectory [6][11]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 2001, specializes in the research, production, and sales of chemical raw materials, chemical preparations, pharmaceutical excipients, and specialty intermediates. It was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2018 [16]. - The company has a strong position in cardiovascular preparations, oral cephalosporin raw materials, alpha-keto acid raw materials, inhalation anesthetics, and androgen hormone intermediates [16]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 1.54 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 5% year-on-year. The decline is primarily attributed to the impact of Leflunomide's inclusion in national procurement [6][24]. - The company expects a rebound in revenue, projecting 1.81 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17.7% [8]. Product Development and Innovation - The introduction of ALK-N001, an innovative anti-cancer drug, is based on the TMEA platform, which has shown promising clinical results. The first drug from this platform, Legobit, has completed Phase III trials, demonstrating superior efficacy and safety compared to existing chemotherapy options [7][11]. - The company is actively expanding into new fields such as plant sterols and animal health, which are expected to become new growth drivers [6][11]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 132 million yuan, 170 million yuan, and 216 million yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 64%, 29%, and 27% [8][9]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 69, 54, and 42 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [9].

Investment Rating - The report gives an initial investment rating of "Buy" for the company, highlighting its multi-layered business layout and organizational upgrades as catalysts for growth [3][7][9]. Core Insights - The company has been deeply engaged in the optical sector for over 20 years, with diversified layouts contributing to long-term growth momentum. It has established three growth curves: consumer electronics, automotive optics, and AR/VR applications, expanding its product ecosystem from components to modules and solutions [4][12]. - The company achieved a revenue of 6.278 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.67%, and a net profit of 1.03 billion yuan, up 71.57%, marking a historical high [4][35]. - The strategic transformation phase is underway, with organizational upgrades aimed at enhancing collaboration with major clients and optimizing operational efficiency [6][21]. Summary by Sections Business Overview - The company has built a multi-layered business structure focusing on consumer electronics, automotive optics, and AR/VR, with a commitment to becoming a leading one-stop optical solution provider globally [19][24]. - The company has successfully transitioned through various stages of development, from indirect supply to direct supply and now to an ODM model, enhancing its position in the supply chain of major clients [20][21]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts net profits of 1.248 billion yuan, 1.526 billion yuan, and 1.750 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 21.20%, 22.27%, and 14.67% [7][9]. - The revenue for 2024 is projected at 6.278 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 23.67% [8][35]. Product Development - The company is focusing on the AR/VR optical applications, with AR waveguide technology being a core strategic initiative, expected to drive future growth [5][64]. - The automotive electronics segment, particularly the AR-HUD product, has gained significant market share domestically and is set for expansion into overseas markets [5][11]. Market Position - The company has established strong partnerships with major clients, enhancing its product capabilities and technical strength, which are crucial for its growth trajectory [6][21]. - The company is actively expanding its international presence, particularly in North America and Europe, to enhance its market influence [44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 38.18 CNY, based on a 46X valuation multiple for 2025 [3][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to see improved profitability driven by supply optimization and demand growth, leading to price elasticity in the rare earth market [9]. - The second quarter performance is projected to show a significant increase in net profit, estimated between 4.7 to 5.3 billion CNY, which is higher than the first quarter's 4.3 billion CNY, attributed to tight supply and strong demand [9]. - The company is enhancing operational efficiency through innovation and optimizing product structure to meet market demands for high-value customized rare earth products [9]. - Ongoing mergers and acquisitions are expected to strengthen the company's position in the rare earth industry, enhancing its market influence and pricing power [9]. - Emerging applications in sectors like low-altitude economy and electric vehicles are anticipated to drive demand for rare earth materials, with the company poised to benefit from these trends [9]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections show a decline in 2023 and 2024, followed by a recovery with expected growth rates of 11.0%, 10.1%, and 10.0% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][11]. - The company's net profit is forecasted to rebound significantly in 2025, with a projected increase of 198.0% compared to 2024, followed by continued growth in subsequent years [4][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.28 CNY in 2024 to 1.18 CNY by 2027, reflecting the company's recovery and growth trajectory [4][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 29.82 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 24.49 CNY as of July 18, 2025 [4]. Core Insights - The company has made significant advancements in AI technology, particularly with its "Steel Big Model," which has been recognized in the SAIL Awards TOP30, affirming its leadership in the digital transformation of the steel industry [1]. - The successful production of the "1550 Acid Washing and Rolling Mill Unit" at the Guangxi Hongwang project marks a critical milestone, showcasing the application of the company's domestic large PLC control systems and setting a new benchmark for high-end metallurgical equipment [1][3]. - The company is actively integrating AI into the steel industry, developing a comprehensive "AI + Steel" solution that combines platform, data, computing power, models, and scenarios, and has initiated over 100 "AI+" application instances [2]. Financial Performance and Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 143.13 billion CNY, 154.81 billion CNY, and 163.92 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits expected to be 24.57 billion CNY, 28.41 billion CNY, and 30.72 billion CNY during the same period [7]. - The revenue growth rate is expected to be 4.9% in 2025, 8.2% in 2026, and 5.9% in 2027, while net profit growth rates are projected at 8.5%, 15.6%, and 8.1% respectively [9][10]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 0.85 CNY in 2025 to 1.07 CNY in 2027, reflecting a positive growth trajectory [10]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic large PLC market, with its products being integral to the operational efficiency of key production lines, such as the Guangxi Hongwang project, which has a designed annual capacity of 1.5 million tons and a maximum operating speed of 1580 m/min [3]. - The company is also focusing on the development of humanoid robots integrated with AI for industrial applications, aiming to establish a robust ecosystem in the steel and related industries [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has laid the foundation for a new production base with an annual capacity of 600,000 pieces of 8-inch silicon carbide substrates, which is expected to accelerate the release of silicon carbide substrates [7] - The company is strategically expanding its domestic and international substrate production capacity, aiming for a total of 900,000 pieces, with 650,000 pieces being 8-inch capacity, which will enhance its competitive edge through economies of scale [7] - The transition to 8-inch silicon carbide substrates is expected to significantly reduce costs, with a 35% decrease in single-chip costs and an increase in effective chip quantity by 1.8 to 1.9 times compared to 6-inch substrates [7] - The company is developing a full-chain layout for silicon carbide materials and equipment, including various types of silicon carbide crystal growth and processing equipment [7] - The company maintains a profit forecast for 2025-2027 with net profits of 2 billion, 2.2 billion, and 2.7 billion yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 17, 16, and 13 times respectively [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 17,983 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 69.04% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is expected to be 4,558 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 55.85% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is estimated at 3.48 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 7.63 times [1] - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 31,550 million yuan in 2024, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 43.16% [8]