Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating for Li Ning (2331 HK) with a target price of HKD 14.89, indicating a potential downside of 2.5% from the current closing price of HKD 15.28 [1][2][3]. Core Insights - The third quarter sales were pressured by foot traffic issues, with a low single-digit year-on-year decline in overall retail sales. Offline retail channels experienced a mid-single-digit decline, while online channels showed a middle single-digit growth [1][2]. - The fourth quarter is expected to perform better than the previous three quarters, driven by improved sales metrics and a favorable comparison to last year's low base. The company anticipates a recovery in sales during the National Day holiday, with offline sales achieving low single-digit growth and e-commerce channels experiencing a 30-40% increase [2][3]. - Discount rates are expected to remain under pressure due to poor foot traffic, leading to increased terminal discounting to maintain inventory levels. The management expects this trend to continue into the fourth quarter, although professional categories like badminton and running have shown strong performance [2][3]. Financial Overview - Revenue for Li Ning is projected to grow from RMB 25,803 million in 2022 to RMB 28,196 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.2% in 2024 [3][6]. - Net profit is expected to decline from RMB 4,064 million in 2022 to RMB 2,952 million in 2024, with a significant drop of 20.7% in 2023 [3][6]. - The company maintains a gross margin improvement expectation of approximately 1 percentage point for the year, despite the anticipated challenges [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its performance relative to the market [3][10]. Core Insights - The company's performance in Q3 2024 showed a year-on-year increase of 7%, driven by improved liquidity and supportive policies, leading to record trading volumes in the Hong Kong stock market [3][4]. - Total revenue for the first nine months of 2024 reached HKD 159.9 billion, a 2% increase year-on-year, with net profit remaining stable at HKD 92.7 billion [3][4]. - The report highlights a significant increase in IPO fundraising, with Q3 2024 seeing a 391% quarter-on-quarter growth, attributed to major listings such as Midea Group [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first nine months of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of HKD 159.9 billion, up 2% year-on-year, and a net profit of HKD 92.7 billion, unchanged from the previous year [3][4]. - Q3 2024 net profit was HKD 31.5 billion, reflecting a 7% increase year-on-year [3]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue contribution from trading and settlement fees increased to 56% in 9M24, up from 53% in 9M23, driven by a recovery in Average Daily Turnover (ADT) [3]. - Revenue from various segments for 9M24 included: - Spot trading: HKD 6.35 billion (+2%) - Equity securities and derivatives: HKD 4.52 billion (-10%) - Commodities: HKD 2.1 billion (+31%) - Data and connectivity: HKD 1.56 billion (+1%) - Company projects: HKD 1.47 billion (+18%) [3][4]. Market Trends - The report notes that the Hong Kong stock market's ADT reached historical highs, with significant contributions from both southbound and northbound trading [3]. - The report anticipates continued positive sentiment in the Hong Kong IPO market due to recent regulatory changes aimed at expediting the listing process [3][4]. Profitability Forecast - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts upward, expecting net profits of HKD 128 billion, HKD 139 billion, and HKD 151 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 8%, 9%, and 8% [3][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][3]. Core Insights - The main brand's Q3 revenue met expectations, with healthy operational metrics, and the performance of Saucony was particularly strong, leading to optimistic expectations for Q4 [3]. - The company maintains its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 at 1.26 billion, 1.43 billion, and 1.60 billion RMB, corresponding to PE ratios of 10, 9, and 8 times respectively [3]. - The main brand's Q3 revenue showed a single-digit year-on-year growth, with offline sales slightly increasing and e-commerce sales growing at a high double-digit rate [3]. - Saucony's Q3 revenue grew by over 50% year-on-year, continuing its rapid growth trajectory [3]. - The overall consumption environment remains under pressure, with a slight decline in foot traffic and single-store performance for the main brand's offline stores compared to H1 [3]. - The company plans to maintain its store count for 2024, with upgrades to store image and size expected to enhance average store efficiency [3]. - There is an expectation for double-digit revenue growth for the main brand in October, driven by strong performance during the National Day holiday and the upcoming Double Eleven sales [3]. - The company anticipates a high probability of 50% year-on-year revenue growth for Saucony in 2024 [3]. Financial Summary - The company reported revenues of 14.35 billion RMB for 2023, with a projected growth of 4% for 2024 [5]. - The net profit for 2023 was 1.03 billion RMB, with an expected growth of over 20% for 2024 [5]. - The PE ratio for 2024 is projected at 10.0, decreasing to 8.6 by 2026 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for TCL Electronics, indicating a positive outlook for the stock [2][7]. Core Views - The Q3 television shipment data exceeded expectations, with a significant increase in global shipments and a strong focus on high-end products [2]. - The company is benefiting from the domestic appliance replacement program, showing robust domestic sales and improved global competitiveness [2]. - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 to be HKD 0.56, 0.68, and 0.76 respectively, representing year-on-year growth of +90%, +21%, and +13% [2]. Summary by Sections - **Q3 Shipment Performance**: In Q3, TCL Electronics shipped 7.49 million televisions globally, a 19.7% increase year-on-year. Domestic shipments were 1.49 million (up 5%), while overseas shipments reached 5.99 million (up 24%) [2]. - **Market Performance**: North American shipments increased by 28%, driven by targeted marketing strategies, while European markets saw a 35.5% increase in shipments for the first three quarters [2]. - **Product Strategy**: The company is leading the trend towards larger and higher-end televisions, with shipments of 65 inches and above increasing by 16.8% and those of 75 inches and above by 35.3% [2]. - **Panel Pricing and Cost Management**: Panel prices have stabilized, alleviating cost pressures for televisions. The average prices for various panel sizes remained unchanged in early October [2]. - **Financial Projections**: The report projects revenue growth from HKD 78.986 billion in 2023 to HKD 94.213 billion in 2024, with net profit expected to rise significantly [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Li Ning (2331.HK) with a target price of HKD 15.94, reflecting a potential upside of 3.9% from the current price of HKD 15.3 [2][11]. Core Views - Li Ning's 3Q24 operational data slightly exceeded market expectations, but the company still significantly lags behind major domestic competitors. The management indicated increased short-term channel inventory pressure and highlighted substantial uncertainty regarding 4Q24 revenue performance [1]. - Despite improved earnings certainty for 2024, the lack of significant recovery in brand strength, fundamentals, and terminal sales trends suggests that investors should remain cautious about Li Ning's stock performance [1]. - The establishment of a joint venture with founder Li Ning and HongShan Venture aims to accelerate the brand's overseas expansion, although the current overseas business only accounts for about 2% of total revenue [1]. Summary by Sections 3Q24 Performance - Li Ning's overall channel revenue in 3Q24 declined in the mid-single digits year-on-year, which was slightly better than market expectations. Offline channel revenue fell in the high single digits, also better than expected [1]. - E-commerce revenue grew in the mid-single digits year-on-year, aligning with market expectations. The average selling price decreased in the mid-single digits, while sales volume remained stable [1]. 4Q24 Outlook - Management remains cautious about the outlook for 4Q24, citing that industry terminal demand has not shown significant improvement and that short-term inventory and discount pressures persist [1]. - The company aims to reduce the inventory turnover ratio to 4-5 months by year-end, with current inventory turnover at around 5 months [1]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for Li Ning are as follows: - 2024E: RMB 28,199 million (up 2.2% YoY) - 2025E: RMB 29,422 million (up 4.3% YoY) - 2026E: RMB 30,967 million (up 5.3% YoY) [3][4]. - Net profit forecasts are: - 2024E: RMB 3,005 million (down 5.7% YoY) - 2025E: RMB 3,297 million (up 9.7% YoY) - 2026E: RMB 3,570 million (up 8.3% YoY) [3][4]. Margins and Ratios - The gross margin is expected to expand by approximately 1 percentage point in 2024, despite a slight decline in the second half of 2024 due to increased discounts [1]. - The report indicates a projected PE ratio of 12.2x for 2024E, with a return on equity (ROE) of 12.0% [3][6]. Inventory and Discounts - Management has increased retail discounts in 3Q24 to manage inventory levels, with offline discounts deepening in the low single digits [1]. - The overall inventory turnover ratio remains manageable, with expectations to improve by year-end [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (388 HK) is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 404.00 [1][4]. Core Views - The report indicates that the performance in Q3 2024 was supported by a recovery in trading volume, with revenue and net profit reaching HKD 5.37 billion and HKD 3.15 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 5.7% and 6.5% [1]. - The average daily trading volume (ADT) for Q3 2024 was HKD 118.8 billion, showing a significant increase from the lowest point of HKD 95 billion in late August [1]. - The report anticipates continued high trading activity in October, with ADT potentially reaching historical highs, supported by expected interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Summary by Sections Trading Business - Q3 2024 saw a stable trading volume with an ADT of HKD 118.8 billion, slightly down from HKD 121.6 billion in Q2 2024. The derivatives and commodities markets experienced a decline, with LME ADV at 642,000 contracts and derivatives contract ADV at 1.482 million contracts [1]. - Interconnectivity revenue for Q3 2024 was HKD 581 million, with northbound and southbound ADT at RMB 1.103 billion and HKD 396 million respectively [1]. IPO Activity - The number of IPOs in Q3 2024 decreased to 15 from 18 in Q2 2024, but the total financing amount increased significantly to HKD 42.2 billion, primarily due to Midea Group's IPO [1]. Investment Performance - Total investment funds stood at HKD 226.8 billion in Q3 2024, with an overall investment return of 2.1%. The return on margin and clearing house funds decreased to 1.45%, while the company's fund return increased to 5.91% [2]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024, 2025, and 2026 has been adjusted to HKD 12.5 billion, HKD 13.2 billion, and HKD 13.8 billion respectively. The target price remains at HKD 404, with the current stock price trading at 30.2x 2025E PE [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning with a target price of HKD 22.8, based on a 2024 PE of 18 times [1][4]. Core Insights - Li Ning's Q3 retail revenue saw a year-on-year decline in the mid-single digits across all platforms, with offline channels experiencing a high single-digit drop, while e-commerce recorded a mid-single-digit growth. The company anticipates a recovery in Q4 due to a low base effect [2]. - The introduction of a joint venture with Sequoia Capital aims to expand Li Ning's overseas market presence, with Li Ning investing HKD 58 million for a 29% stake, maintaining control over the joint venture [2]. - The company reported a healthy inventory turnover, with a 5-month turnover rate and 80% of inventory being new products, although discounts are expected to increase in Q4 due to traditional e-commerce shopping festivals [2]. Financial Projections - The projected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is expected to be HKD 1.17, HKD 1.29, and HKD 1.43 respectively, with revenue growth rates of 2.5%, 7.9%, and 6.9% for the same years [3][8]. - The report indicates a decline in net profit for 2024, with a projected decrease of 4.7% compared to the previous year, followed by a recovery in subsequent years [3][11]. - The gross margin is expected to improve slightly from 48.4% in 2023 to 49.1% by 2026, while the net profit margin is projected to stabilize around 10.7% to 11.3% over the same period [3][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a slowdown in the main brand's retail sales growth in Q3 2024, with a retail discount of approximately 75% and inventory turnover of about 4 months [2] - The main brand's sales growth has slowed compared to the previous quarter, but there has been an improvement in sales since October, benefiting from government stimulus policies [2] - The company has effectively controlled discounts and inventory levels, with a retail discount of about 75% in Q3 2024, which is an improvement compared to the same period last year [2] - The subsidiary brand, Saucony, has shown strong growth with a year-on-year increase of around 50% in Q3 2024, and is expected to expand its presence in high-tier cities [2] - The company is focused on enhancing profitability through cost reduction and efficiency measures, alongside the divestiture of K&P, which is anticipated to improve profit margins [2] Summary by Sections Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Total revenue (in million) is projected to be 14,957 in 2024E, with a year-on-year growth of 4.26% [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company (in million) is forecasted to be 1,235.47 in 2024E, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.95% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is expected to be 0.47 in 2024E, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 11.24 [1]

来源：公司年报、国金证券研究所 买入（维持评级） 事件 李宁 10.22 发布 3Q24 经营数据，全平台零售流水下滑中单位数， 其中线下渠道流水下滑高单位数（直营同比下滑中单位数，批发同 比下滑高单位数），电商流水同比增长中单位数，符合预期。 同日李宁发布成立合资公司公告，其全资子公司 LN Co 与 Founder Co、红杉中国成立合资公司，合计注资 2 亿港元，持股比例分别为 29%、26%、45%，创始人李宁先生与李宁公司合计对 JV 持股达 55%， 拟借助国际机构等多方资源探索国际业务发展。 经营分析 三季度流水仍承压，存货维持健康。由于客流整体偏弱，公司积极 动态调整折扣，并加大高性价比款、快反产品的投放，以减轻渠道 存货压力。3Q24 折扣同比加深低单位数、ASP 下降中单位数，销售 量同比微降低单位数。期末库销比 5 左右，略微高于去年同期，其 中直营略高于批发，且库龄 80%以上是 6 个月内新品，保持健康， 环比有提升主要系冬装、双十一备货加大所致。 展望 Q4 及全年：指引维持。公司国庆期间表现显著好转，线上流 水增长 30%~40%，线下流水回正至个位数增长。预计在旺季催化、 客流 ...

股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 单季利润环比持平，期待 Q4 业绩释放 香港交易所(0388) [Table_Industry] 综合金融 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 ——香港交易所 2024 年三季报点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------------------------|---------------------------|---------------------------| | | | | | | | [table_Authors] 刘欣琦 ( 分析师 ) | 吴浩东 ( 分析师 ) | 王思 玥 ( 研究助理 ) | | | 021-38676647 | 010-83939780 | 021-38031024 | | | liuxinqi@gtjas.com | wuhaodong029780@gtjas.com | wangsiyue028676@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880515050001 | S0880524070001 | S0880123070151 | ...