on 19-Jan-2026 19 January 2026 We update our tracker with the Dec data as we find that the Korea export data is a good early indicator for Samsung's & SK hynix's HBM revenue in the same quarter. Details of our methodology can be found in our prior note. The dataset can be downloaded at this link. Samsung Dec HBM export grew MoM but not enough to meet our 4Q25 HBM revenue projection. Export from S. Chungcheong Province (where Samsung packages HBM) improved further MoM by 16% but still down 25% QoQ (vs. Sep), ...

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research 16 January 2026 Samsung Electronics Growing HBM option value and stronger memory up- cycle to drive shares higher; raise PT to W200K We expect HBM option value to materialize in FY26 and view a stronger & longer memory up-cycle to lead to further share price appreciation. Post our 23-25% upward EPS revision, we raise our Dec-26 PT to W200k using a peak-cycle valuation (~2x FY26E-27E P/B or implying 9x FY26E-27E EPS). We recommend investors accumulate the stock. O ...

Memory Market Update Summary Industry Overview - The report focuses on the High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) market, particularly the structural shortage expected to persist until 2027E, driven by demand from AI applications such as GPUs and ASICs [1][25]. Key Insights - **HBM Market Cycle**: The HBM market is in its fourth year of an upcycle since 2023, with a projected Total Addressable Market (TAM) growth of 79% CAGR from 2024A to 2027E [1]. - **Pricing Power**: HBM pricing power is expected to remain with memory manufacturers, especially for advanced HBM4 products, due to stringent manufacturing requirements [1]. - **Demand vs. Supply**: HBM supply is anticipated to remain tight until 2027E, with demand growth significantly outpacing supply growth, particularly from major players like Google and Amazon [1][11]. - **Key Catalysts**: Upcoming catalysts include HBM4 qualification results, pricing negotiations, AI model competition, and TSV capacity expansion trends [1]. Demand Projections - **HBM Demand**: HBM bit demand is projected to reach 2,042 million units in FY25E, 3,511 million units in FY26E, and 5,419 million units in FY27E, with significant contributions from NVDA and ASICs [70]. - **ASIC Contribution**: ASICs are expected to account for over 35% of HBM bit demand in 2026-2027, with NVDA being a major driver of this demand [11]. Supply Dynamics - **Supply Constraints**: The report indicates that underinvestment and capex discipline among memory makers will continue to tighten HBM supply, with a projected supply of 2,613 million units in FY25E [70]. - **Glut Ratio**: The HBM supply-demand glut ratio is expected to remain negative, indicating a continued shortage [70]. Competitive Landscape - **Samsung's Role**: Samsung is anticipated to surprise positively with its HBM4 qualification, potentially capturing a significant market share [38]. - **Market Preferences**: In the near term, preference is given to Samsung (SEC) over SK Hynix (SKH) based on HBM option value and pricing upside [1]. Financial Metrics - **Revenue Growth**: HBM industry revenue is projected to grow from $35.7 billion in FY25E to $96.4 billion in FY27E, reflecting a robust demand environment [70]. - **ASP Trends**: The average selling price (ASP) for HBM is expected to increase, with a projected premium of 30% for HBM4 over HBM3E prices [61]. Investment Outlook - **Stock Performance**: Recent stock rallies in memory shares are attributed to conventional memory pricing rather than HBM factors, indicating a potential shift in market focus [66]. - **Future Catalysts**: The upcoming HBM4 qualification outcomes and demand equations are seen as critical for influencing memory earnings and stock performance [66]. Additional Considerations - **Capex Trends**: Concerns regarding capex for smaller cloud service providers (CSPs) may persist, but AI-related compute/storage demand is expected to remain strong [25]. - **In-House Demand**: The potential in-house demand from frontier AI model companies has not been fully factored into HBM projections, representing an upside risk [25]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the HBM market, highlighting the ongoing structural challenges and opportunities for growth in the semiconductor industry.

Core Viewpoint - NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) is highlighted as a top debt-free stock to consider, particularly in light of recent export approvals for H200 AI processors to China, despite concerns regarding supply constraints of dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) [1][2]. Group 1: Export Approval and Supply Constraints - The recent export approval for H200 AI processors to China has positioned NVIDIA favorably, although concerns have been raised about the shortage of DRAM, which is critical for these processors [1]. - House Representative John Moolenaar has alerted Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick about the immediate challenges posed by DRAM supply constraints, indicating that the chips destined for China could represent an opportunity cost for American customers [1]. - The three main manufacturers of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) — Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron Technology — have warned of supply constraints and potential shortages, which could impact NVIDIA's ability to fulfill orders [2]. Group 2: Analyst Sentiment and Company Fundamentals - Analysts at Jefferies have maintained a bullish outlook on NVIDIA, raising their price target from $250 to $275, citing that the stock remains relatively cheap compared to 2027 estimates [4]. - NVIDIA designs and manufactures a range of products including graphics processing units (GPUs), system-on-a-chip (SoC) units, and AI hardware and software, which are utilized across various sectors such as gaming, data centers, and autonomous vehicles [4].

Accessible version Global Memory Tech Weekly theme: Investor feedback, TSMC, spot price, China chipmaker fundraising Industry Overview US investor feedback: cautiously optimistic We met US investors across the West/East Coast areas. Most of them acknowledged that the current memory cycle is better than ever and confirmed great returns from their recent or a-while-ago investments. However, we also saw mixed sentiment—bullish on AI boom vs some concerns on record-high P/B (after 2-3 years' long share-price ra ...

Core Insights - TSMC is a leading player in the semiconductor industry, particularly in AI chip manufacturing, with a market cap exceeding $1.7 trillion, making it one of only 11 companies valued over $1 trillion [2][6] - The company has seen significant growth in its high-performance computing (HPC) segment, which has surpassed smartphone chip manufacturing in revenue contribution [4][5] Company Performance - TSMC's HPC revenue has increased dramatically from $7.26 billion in Q3 2023 to $18.87 billion in Q3 2025, reflecting a growing demand for advanced AI chips [5] - The company's revenue from HPC accounted for 57% of total revenue in Q3 2025, compared to 30% from smartphones [4] Market Position - TSMC holds a dominant position in the chip foundry market with approximately 72% market share, and over 90% in advanced AI chips, far ahead of competitors like Samsung and Intel [9][8] - The company operates on a foundry model, manufacturing chips for other companies, which has allowed it to maintain a strong market presence [3] Financial Metrics - TSMC has a gross margin of 59.02% and a dividend yield of 0.90%, indicating solid financial health [6] - The stock has averaged annual returns close to 22% over the past five years, suggesting a strong investment trajectory [10] Long-term Outlook - Despite potential cooling in AI demand, TSMC's diversified product offerings across various tech sectors (smartphones, computers, TVs, etc.) are expected to sustain its business strength [7][11] - The company's established competitive moat and indispensable role in the tech industry position it as a strong long-term investment [11]

Market Overview - Futures are higher, with S&P 500 futures up 0.3% and Nasdaq 100 contracts up 0.4%, driven by enthusiasm for technology stocks [1] - The Russell 2000 has outperformed the S&P 500 for ten consecutive sessions, showing a relative performance improvement of over 600 basis points this year [4] Corporate News - JB Hunt Transport Services Inc. reported a 4% decline in shares after quarterly revenue missed estimates, indicating ongoing weakness in freight demand [5] - Kraft Heinz shares fell 1.1% following a downgrade by Morgan Stanley to underweight [5] - Mosaic's shares dropped 6% due to a significant decline in North American fertilizer demand [5] - PNC Financial Services Group Inc. shares rose 3% after reporting a 9% increase in fourth-quarter revenue, surpassing analysts' expectations [5] - Regions Financial shares fell 4% after reporting lower EPS and total loans than expected, with a forecast of declining net interest income [5] Technology Sector - The Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher in premarket trading, with Nvidia up 0.8% and other tech firms like AMD and Microsoft also showing gains [3] - TSMC's strong earnings and capital expenditure forecast have fueled optimism regarding the AI boom [4] - OpenAI and Microsoft are facing legal challenges over claims related to funding and operational changes [3] Economic Indicators - The first week of the earnings season has seen 89% of the 28 companies reporting so far beating expectations, indicating a positive outlook for the broader economy [9] - US stock funds experienced inflows of $36.5 billion in the week ending January 14, reflecting investor confidence [10] - Yield premiums on corporate debt have narrowed significantly, with a record $435 billion in bonds issued in the first half of January [11] Central Bank Insights - Five regional Fed bank presidents indicated that the central bank is well-positioned to wait for further data before making rate cuts, with no changes expected at the upcoming meeting [12] - Fed officials have expressed a need to maintain a restrictive monetary policy to combat inflation [37] Global Market Trends - European stocks dipped slightly but are on track for their fifth consecutive weekly advance, with health care stocks outperforming [13] - Asian stocks rose, particularly in Taiwan, supported by TSMC's positive outlook for AI demand [15] - The Japanese yen strengthened as Finance Minister Katayama indicated readiness for potential currency intervention [16]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **memory sector** within the **global technology** industry, particularly in relation to **AI** and its impact on memory demand and pricing dynamics [1][9][57]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Capacity Constraints**: The memory market is experiencing a capacity-constrained cycle, with long order visibility driven by AI inference. The primary risk for 2026 is execution and transition rather than demand [1][4]. - **Pricing Trends**: A steeper pricing climb is anticipated, with expectations of aggressive price hikes of over 70% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) for both DRAM and NAND. This pricing power is shifting rapidly, driven by increased demand from AI applications [3][4][49]. - **Memory Demand**: Text-only AI inference is projected to account for 35% of global DRAM supply and 92% of NAND supply in 2026, indicating a significant shift in memory requirements due to AI advancements [3][41]. - **Supply Chain Dynamics**: The supply-demand gap for legacy memory is widening, particularly for DDR4/3 and NAND types. Capital expenditure (Capex) is expected to accelerate, focusing on DRAM, with meaningful expansions anticipated from 2027 [4][49]. Investment Recommendations - **Preferred Stocks**: The report recommends investing in companies with higher pricing power in DRAM (e.g., Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron), legacy memory (e.g., Winbond), and semiconductor capital equipment (e.g., ASML) [5][9][13]. - **Bottlenecks as Opportunities**: The report suggests that bottlenecks in the semiconductor industry, particularly in memory and semiconductor capital equipment, will lead to stock performance winners [9][10]. Additional Important Insights - **AI Inference Challenges**: The transition from generative AI to Agentic AI is creating new memory challenges, as these systems require significantly more memory capacity and performance to support their functions [28][29]. - **Long-term Growth Potential**: The memory market is expected to continue growing, with substantial headroom for improvement in AI models and increasing memory requirements due to the adoption of multimodal AI systems [32][33]. - **Market Dynamics**: The report highlights that the memory market is currently the largest and fastest-growing segment in semiconductors, with a projected growth rate exceeding 40% year-on-year in 2026 [57]. Conclusion - The memory sector is poised for significant growth driven by AI demand, with strong pricing power and investment opportunities in key players. The evolving landscape of AI applications is reshaping memory requirements, presenting both challenges and opportunities for investors in the semiconductor space [1][57].

The iShares MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan ETF tracks a diversified basket of Asian equities, spanning both developed and emerging markets.On Wednesday, Zurich-based BFI Infinity Ltd. disclosed a buy of 132,421 shares of the iShares MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan ETF (AAXJ +0.74%), an estimated $12.30 million trade based on quarterly average pricing.What happenedAccording to a SEC filing published Wednesday, BFI Infinity Ltd. bought 132,421 additional shares of the iShares MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan ETF ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Major U.S. index futures are indicating a higher open, with technology stocks expected to lead the rebound, as shown by a 1.0 percent increase in Nasdaq 100 futures [1] - The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 238.12 points or 1.0 percent to 23,471.75, while the S&P 500 and Dow also experienced declines [5] - Concerns about rising geopolitical tensions contributed to the weakness on Wall Street [5] Group 2: Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - Shares of Taiwan Semiconductor are up more than 5 percent in pre-market trading following a significant increase in fourth-quarter profits [2] - TSMC's capital expenditure levels indicate strong confidence in the ongoing AI boom, with guidance suggesting 30% growth by 2026 [3] Group 3: U.S. Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell to 198,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's revised level of 207,000, contrary to economists' expectations of an increase [24][25] - Retail sales in the U.S. rose by 0.6 percent in November, exceeding expectations of a 0.4 percent increase [8][9] Group 4: Sector Performance - Software stocks saw a significant decline, dragging the Dow Jones U.S. Software Index down by 2.4 percent to its lowest level in eight months [10] - Airline and retail stocks also experienced notable weakness, while energy stocks showed significant strength [10] Group 5: International Markets - Asian stocks ended mixed, with Japan's Nikkei 225 Index dropping 0.4 percent and South Korea's Kospi surging 1.6 percent to a record high [12][15] - European stocks displayed mixed performance, with the U.K. GDP growing by 0.3 percent in November, surpassing expectations [18][19]