今年各行各业跨界抢饭碗趋势明显，可能因为经济存在周期现象，现在需要多倍的努力才能维持以前的 业绩。这股竞争之风又吹到了机票代理领域，国家队的机票代理平台航旅纵横也亲自下场了。 实际上这也不是笔者第一次以国家队的视角去看待行业发展，正好在10年前也曾撰文《旅游国家队的线 上突围：已不当大哥好多年》，今天回过头看，当年国家队的线上突围最终没能成功。 那么在今天的机票代理领域，国家队是会重蹈覆辙？还是会异军突起？ 中国民航业的基本面与显著问题 2024年据中国民航官方数据，飞行总人次达到7.3亿人次，创出历史新高，全年执飞航班500万班次，甚 至国产大飞机也已加入运营机队。 但同时我们也应该关注到，中国民航业与美国仍存在差距：据美国FAA数据，2023年美国全年飞行总人 次超过10亿，执飞航班1600万多架次，共有约2万个机场提供起降服务，可以发现，在美国人口只有中 国的约1/4的情况下，总飞行人次仍然更高。 中国要追赶美国的航空效率，显然还有很多的工作要做，而财务口径是一个很好的观察口径。据公开数 据，2024年，国东南三大航亏损总计约50亿元，笔者曾服务过的海航也亏损约10亿元，在这样的背景 下，失血大发展的后 ...

Group 1 - Domestic online travel service platforms report that rural tourism has become a highlight of this summer's travel season, with the top ten most beautiful rural roads being popular destinations [1][13] - Hotel bookings for this summer cover over 90% of counties and townships nationwide, with regions like Xinjiang and Sichuan seeing high booking volumes [1] - In Shanxi, Xixian County leads with over six times the booking increase, while counties in Fujian and Shanxi also show significant growth [3] Group 2 - The "Bamboo Country Gallery" tourism road in Guangde, Anhui, has become a popular spot for rural tourism this summer [5] - The "Zhejiang North Mountain Water Line" in Deqing County has seen a 5.97% increase in visitors compared to last year [8] - The Ministry of Transport indicates that rural roads have significantly boosted tourism, with some roads attracting nearly 100,000 visitors for night tours alone [13][15] Group 3 - The northwest region has become a hot spot for rural tourism, with ticket bookings for flights to areas like Xinjiang doubling compared to last year [18] - Airlines have increased flights to Xinjiang, with Air China adding routes to Alatai, Kashgar, and Korla, and Southern Airlines opening new routes from Beijing to Aksu [21] - Urumqi Airport has seen a 23% year-on-year increase in passenger throughput, surpassing 1 million passengers since July 20 [24] Group 4 - The "High-speed Rail + Tourism" initiative has led to the introduction of special tourist trains, enhancing the travel experience across various regions [29][35] - The Harbin Railway Bureau has launched 13 special rural tourism trains to destinations within Heilongjiang Province, promoting local tourism [35] - The Shanghai Railway Bureau is facilitating "High-speed Rail + Tourism" integration by establishing tourism distribution centers at high-speed rail stations [37]

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a collective decline last Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.33%, the Shenzhen Component down by 0.22%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.23%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1,786.98 billion yuan [2][6] - In terms of industry performance, the electronics, computer, and real estate sectors led the gains, while the construction decoration, building materials, and food and beverage sectors lagged behind. Concept sectors such as Sora, photolithography machines, and multimodal AI saw significant increases, while the Hainan Free Trade Zone, Yaxia Hydropower concept, and pumped storage experienced declines [2][6] - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.09%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index dropped by 1.13%. In overseas markets, the three major U.S. indices collectively rose, with the Dow Jones up by 0.47%, the S&P 500 up by 0.4%, and the Nasdaq up by 0.24% [2][6] Industry News - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size fell by 4.3% year-on-year in June, with the decline narrowing compared to May. The new momentum industries, represented by equipment manufacturing, showed rapid profit growth, indicating the sustained effect of the "two new" policies. From January to June, the total profit of industrial enterprises was 34,365 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%. The black metal smelting and rolling processing industry saw profits increase by 13.7 times, while the mining industry experienced a 30.3% decline [3][7] - The U.S. and the EU reached a 15% tariff agreement, which will impose tariffs on most European goods exported to the U.S., including automobiles. The EU is expected to increase investments in the U.S. by 600 billion dollars and purchase 150 billion dollars worth of U.S. energy products. Some products will be exempt from tariffs, including aircraft and certain chemicals and pharmaceuticals [3][7] Transportation Industry Insights - Public fund holdings in the transportation industry saw a rebound in Q2 2025 after three consecutive quarters of decline, with the total market value of public fund holdings in the transportation sector reaching 48.252 billion yuan, accounting for 13.3% of the fund's heavy positions, which is still below the benchmark allocation by 1.86 percentage points [8][9] - The transportation industry index rose by 2.71% in Q2 2025, achieving a relative return of 2.17% compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index [9] - Within the sub-industries, the aviation and logistics sectors saw an increase in holdings, while the shipping ports and railway-highway sectors experienced a decrease. The express delivery sector is expected to benefit from reduced competition and improved profitability [8][10] Gaming Industry Insights - In July 2025, the National Press and Publication Administration announced the approval of 127 domestic games and 7 imported games, maintaining a high volume of game license issuance [11][12] - The approval of several major titles, including "Kingshot" by Diandian Interactive, indicates a robust supply side and a steady trend towards normalization in game licensing, suggesting ongoing recovery in the industry [12][15] - The gaming market is expected to see significant contributions from established companies with diverse product offerings and strong R&D capabilities, as evidenced by the successful approval of high-profile titles [12][15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [8]. Core Insights - In Q2 2025, the transportation industry saw a 0.32 percentage point increase in the proportion of public fund heavy holdings, reaching 2.01%, primarily driven by the logistics and supply chain sector [2][5]. - The number of heavily held stocks in the transportation sector increased to 66, with a total market value of 25.93 billion yuan, reflecting a 16.1% quarter-on-quarter increase [5]. - The logistics and supply chain sector's allocation increased significantly, while other sub-sectors experienced a decrease in allocation [5][6]. Summary by Sections Public Fund Holdings - The transportation sector's heavy holding ratio is 2.01%, up from the previous period, and ranks 14th among 32 primary industries, indicating a low allocation status [5]. - The logistics and supply chain sector saw a significant increase in allocation, while the aviation, railway, and maritime sectors experienced reductions [5][6]. Heavy Holdings - The top five heavily held stocks in the transportation sector accounted for 67.5% of the total market value of heavy holdings, up from 54.5% in Q1 2025 [6]. - SF Express continues to attract significant institutional interest, with the number of funds holding it increasing to 163, reflecting a strong upward trend in its business performance [6][25]. Northbound Capital - Northbound capital holdings in the transportation sector increased to 5.91%, with express delivery being the largest segment at 190 billion yuan, accounting for 33.9% of the sector [7][31]. - The airport, railway, and shipping sectors saw the highest increases in northbound capital holdings, indicating a positive sentiment towards these segments [7][34].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the aviation industry is "Maintain" with a recommendation to "Increase Holdings" for specific companies such as China Southern Airlines and Air China [3][7]. Core Insights - The aviation industry is experiencing a slight narrowing of supply-demand differences due to normalization and increased base figures, yet passenger load factors remain high and continue to improve year-on-year. Domestic routes show low growth, while international routes support supply-demand growth [1][7]. - Key financial indicators for major airlines indicate a mixed performance, with significant improvements in passenger load factors for the three major airlines. Spring Airlines has shown a leading capacity deployment in June [1][3][7]. Industry Overview - As of June 2025, the civil aviation passenger transport volume reached 61.22 million, a year-on-year increase of 14.6% compared to 2019 and 4.4% compared to 2024. Domestic routes accounted for 54.64 million passengers, while international routes saw 658,000 passengers, reflecting a recovery trend [7][22]. - The number of flights executed in June was 448,000, up 5% from 2019 and 2.9% from 2024. Domestic flights totaled 384,000, while international flights reached 64,200, recovering to 81.7% of 2019 levels [7][22]. - The average ticket price for domestic routes decreased by 4.9% year-on-year, while the base ticket price increased by 0.7% [7][22]. Company Performance - Major airlines' operational data for June 2025 shows that China Southern Airlines had an ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) growth of 4.4% and an RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) growth of 6.7%, with a passenger load factor increase of 1.8 percentage points [41][45]. - Air China's ASK grew by 2.5% and RPK by 3.9%, with a load factor increase of 1.1 percentage points. Eastern Airlines reported an ASK growth of 6.5% and RPK growth of 10.0% [41][45]. - The overall performance of listed airlines indicates a combined ASK growth of 5.1% and RPK growth of 6.9%, with domestic ASK growth at 1.1% and RPK growth at 3.1% [45]. Market Trends - The aviation industry index showed a performance of 6.1% over one month, 12.2% over six months, and 26.5% over twelve months, indicating a positive trend compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [5][11]. - The total market capitalization of the aviation industry reached 319.95 billion, with a circulating market capitalization of 295.20 billion [3][11]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include China Southern Airlines, Air China, Spring Airlines, and others, with a focus on maintaining a watch on China Eastern Airlines [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the transportation industry [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the acquisition of Daniao Logistics by Shentong, emphasizing the focus on the express delivery and civil aviation sectors to mitigate internal competition [1] - The express delivery sector is expected to see a demand growth of over 20% in 2024, with a 19.3% increase in business volume in the first half of 2025 [23] - The report suggests that the "anti-involution" policy may ease price competition and facilitate valuation recovery in the express delivery industry [23] Summary by Sections Shipping - The dry bulk market is showing signs of improvement, with a focus on the impact of the US-China trade talks on the shipping sector [6] - The report notes that the shipping rates for the East US route have decreased by 6.5% this week, while the European route has seen a slight increase of 0.5% [10][11] - The report recommends monitoring companies such as COSCO Shipping and Yang Ming Marine Transport [6] Infrastructure - The report indicates that the yield on 10Y and 30Y government bonds is 1.7% and 2% respectively, suggesting that there is still value in dividend assets [18] - It highlights the stable performance of leading highway assets and recommends stocks like China Merchants Highway and Anhui Expressway [18] Express Delivery - The express delivery business volume reached 16.87 billion pieces in June 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.8% [19] - The report mentions that Shentong's acquisition of Daniao Logistics is expected to enhance market share and optimize competition [22] - The report emphasizes the potential for valuation recovery due to the "anti-involution" policy and the easing of price competition [23] Aviation - The report notes a decrease in passenger traffic due to adverse weather conditions, with a 1.4% drop in the week of July 18-24 [24] - It highlights the importance of the "anti-involution" policy in the aviation sector, which aims to stabilize competition and improve valuations [25] - Recommended stocks include Air China and China Southern Airlines [25] Logistics - The report states that the average daily traffic at the Ganqimaodu port increased by 16.6% week-on-week [26] - It mentions that the logistics company China National Foreign Trade Transportation Group is expected to confirm significant non-recurring gains from asset sales [26]

Investment Rating - The transportation sector has shown a positive trend with a 3.2% increase in the transportation index, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.5% during the week of July 19-25, 2025 [1][12]. Core Insights - The transportation sector's fund holdings increased to 32.5 billion yuan, a 17.0% rise compared to the previous quarter, with a market share of 1.95% [2]. - The express delivery segment saw a significant year-on-year growth of 15.8% in June, with SF Express leading the growth [2]. - The logistics sector is under pressure, particularly in hazardous materials logistics, but there is a push towards smart logistics, with Hai Chen Co. being recommended [3]. - The aviation sector is experiencing a steady recovery, with a 3% increase in domestic passenger volume in June compared to the previous year [4]. - The shipping sector is stabilizing, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increasing by 10.9% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in dry bulk shipping [5][34]. Summary by Sections Transportation Market Review - The transportation index rose by 3.2%, with the airport sector showing the highest increase of 5.6% [1][12]. Industry Fundamentals Tracking Shipping and Ports - The export container freight index (CCFI) was 1261.35 points, down 3.2% week-on-week and down 40.9% year-on-year [20]. - The domestic container freight index (PDCI) increased by 1.1% week-on-week, indicating a slight recovery in domestic shipping [28]. Aviation and Airports - The average daily flights reached 16,945, a 3.68% increase year-on-year, with domestic flights up by 2.51% [4]. - The introduction of a new ticket purchasing feature on the airline service platform is expected to enhance customer experience [4]. Rail and Road - National highway freight traffic increased by 0.67% week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 2.01% [6][76]. - The railway passenger volume in June was 373 million, a 3.61% increase year-on-year [73]. Express Delivery - The express delivery business volume reached 16.87 billion pieces in June, with a notable increase in the market share of SF Express [2][44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the express delivery and shipping industries, particularly highlighting the potential for significant elasticity in the market following the acquisition of Daniao Express by Shentong [2][25]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry is expected to continue its high growth rate in 2025, with the market currently pricing in pessimistic expectations due to price wars. A reversal in these expectations could lead to substantial market elasticity [2]. - The acquisition of Daniao by Shentong is seen as a catalyst for further consolidation in the supply side, which may shift market focus from transaction expectations to actual transactions, benefiting quality companies like YTO Express and Shentong Express [2]. - The shipping sector is highlighted as a crucial part of commodity trade, with high mineral prices driving active shipments. The report recommends China Merchants Energy Shipping and notes the performance of various shipping companies in the Hong Kong and US markets [2][25]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of railway freight and highway truck traffic, with steady growth expected in these sectors [2]. Summary by Sections Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is projected to maintain a high growth rate, with institutional holdings in major players at low levels. The market is currently pricing in a pessimistic outlook due to ongoing price wars, but a potential reversal could lead to significant market elasticity [2]. - The acquisition of Daniao by Shentong is expected to draw attention to further supply-side consolidation, with quality companies like YTO Express and Shentong Express likely to gain market share [2]. Shipping - Shipping is identified as a vital link in commodity trade, with high mineral prices leading to increased shipments. The report recommends China Merchants Energy Shipping and highlights the performance of various shipping companies in the Hong Kong and US markets [2][25]. - New ship prices have stabilized, and the performance of Chinese shipyards is expected to outperform their Japanese and Korean counterparts [2][25]. Railway and Highway - Railway freight volume and highway truck traffic are showing resilience, with steady growth anticipated. Data from the Ministry of Transport indicates a slight increase in freight volume [2]. - The report suggests that the highway sector has two main investment themes for 2025: high dividend yield investments and potential value management catalysts for undervalued stocks [2]. Aviation - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from a recovery in supply chains and an increase in wide-body aircraft utilization, with a positive long-term outlook for airline profitability [2]. - The report recommends several airlines, including China Eastern Airlines and Cathay Pacific, as potential investment opportunities [2]. Overall Market Performance - The transportation index increased by 2.95%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.26 percentage points, with the aviation sector showing the highest growth at 4.84% [3][11]. - The report notes that the shipping and aviation sectors are experiencing fluctuations in freight rates, with specific indices reflecting these changes [3][11].

Group 1 - The article discusses the differences in airport experiences, particularly focusing on the VIP lounges at Beijing Capital Airport and Daxing Airport, highlighting the overcrowding at the former due to non-elite users [1] - It emphasizes the convenience of using Didi at Daxing Airport, suggesting a specific drop-off point to save time [1] - The article notes that Guangzhou Airport is less affected by typhoons compared to Shenzhen Airport, which is located by the sea [2] Group 2 - The article mentions that in Shanghai, the Didi pickup point at Hongqiao High-Speed Railway Station is inconvenient, recommending a nearby hotel for easier access [3] - It points out that many cities protect local taxi services, making it easier to take taxis from major transport hubs compared to ride-hailing services [3] - For business travelers, it suggests a hotel near Hongqiao Airport for convenience when flying red-eye flights [3] Group 3 - The article provides information on shopping options at Hongqiao Airport, specifically Disney stores located in Terminal 2 [4] - It highlights the presence of Sanrio stores selling Hello Kitty merchandise at various airports, including Beijing and Shanghai [4] - It mentions that traveling from Nanchang to the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions takes about 2-3 hours, allowing for a quick meal before continuing the journey [5] Group 4 - The article notes that direct high-speed trains from Shanghai to Shenzhen can take around 10 hours, suggesting alternatives for quicker travel [6] - It recommends Shandong Airlines and Hainan Airlines for timely arrivals, particularly highlighting Shandong Airlines for its reliability [6] - It clarifies that Tianhe Airport is in Wuhan, not Guangzhou, correcting a common misconception [7]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) is expected to continue rising to 25,800-26,000 next week, with a support level at 24,600 and a resistance level at 25,894 [1] - Technical signals indicate a "strong buy" for the semiconductor sector, with a potential price target of 56-60 HKD for SMIC [3] - China Southern Airlines has recently broken through its previous high, with a key resistance level at 6.19 HKD [6] Group 2: Individual Stock Analysis - Ganfeng Lithium is showing a gradual upward trend, with a support level at 27 HKD and a resistance level at 33.6 HKD, potentially reaching 35 HKD [9] - Alibaba's stock is currently viewed as a buying opportunity, with a target of 130 HKD and support levels at 112.3 HKD and 105.7 HKD [12] - AAC Technologies has a neutral technical signal, with resistance levels at 41.2 HKD and 42.5 HKD, indicating a lack of clear direction [15]