Report Overview - Report Name: Aluminum Daily Report - Date: May 13, 2025 - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View - The progress of Sino-US tariff negotiations has improved the macro environment, leading to a general rise in asset prices. On the 12th, Shanghai aluminum opened higher and moved higher, with a gain of 1.66% to 19,910, approaching the 20,000 mark again. The overall supply pressure of electrolytic aluminum is limited, but the demand side may be affected by the seasonal decline in traditional off-season demand and the end of the PV rush installation period. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and caution should be exercised when considering the rebound space. It is recommended to adopt a short-selling strategy on rebounds. The increase in smelting profit after the rise in aluminum prices may lead to insufficient long positions from funds. Short hedging can participate at high levels [8] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: The progress of Sino-US tariff negotiations improved the macro environment, and on the 12th, Shanghai aluminum opened higher and moved higher, with a gain of 1.66% to 19,910, approaching the 20,000 mark again. The total open interest of the index decreased by 22,204 to 549,226 lots. After the absolute price of spot aluminum rose, the premium/discount was under pressure. The spot import loss was around -1,300 yuan/ton [8] - **Alumina Situation**: Driven by the upward trend in the sector, alumina continued to rebound, but the increase was relatively limited and narrowed compared with the previous period. Considering the maintenance and production cuts plans of some alumina plants in May and the ramping up of some new production capacities, the reduction in overall operating capacity was not significant, and the oversupply trend was difficult to change. Caution should be exercised when considering the rebound space, and a short-selling strategy on rebounds is recommended [8] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Situation**: In May, the domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level. Recent small-scale and轮番 maintenance had little impact on supply. Benefiting from the production capacity ceiling limit, the incremental space was limited, and the overall supply pressure was limited. On the demand side, May is the transition period between peak and off-peak seasons. It is expected that the seasonal decline in traditional off-season demand and the end of the PV rush installation period will have a negative impact. At the beginning of this week, inventories continued to decline, and attention should be paid to the sustainability and the extent of the demand drag [8] - **Operation Suggestions**: The increase in smelting profit after the rise in aluminum prices may lead to insufficient long positions from funds. Attention should be paid to the resistance performance at the integer mark. Short hedging can participate at high levels [8] 3.2 Industry News - **US-UK Trade Agreement**: On May 8, 2025, the US and the UK reached a bilateral trade agreement. The US will cancel the 25% tariff on UK steel and aluminum products and reduce the import tariff on UK cars from 27.5% to 10% for the first 100,000 UK-made cars per year. In exchange, the UK will cancel the import tariff on US ethanol and open the beef market [9][10] - **Hydro and Nemak Cooperation**: Norwegian aluminum giant Hydro and global leading aluminum die-casting manufacturer Nemak will cooperate to develop decarbonized cast aluminum products for the automotive industry. The cooperation aims to increase the proportion of recycled aluminum at Hydro's Brazilian Alunorte refinery and gradually shift the energy structure to cleaner energy to significantly reduce the carbon footprint of aluminum castings. Hydro has supplied primary foundry aluminum alloy (PFA) to Nemak, with a carbon footprint of less than 4.0 kg of carbon dioxide per kg of aluminum, only 25% of the global average. According to the signed letter of intent, the carbon footprint will be further reduced by 25% [10] - **Guinea to Revoke EGA's Mining License**: According to Reuters on May 7, 2025, Guinea's government has initiated procedures to revoke the mining license of Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) in the country. EGA's exports and mining activities have been suspended by the government since October 2024. The mine covers an area of 690 square kilometers and has an estimated reserve of about 400 million tons of bauxite. This move reflects the increasing trend of resource countries in the region to strengthen control over minerals [10]

行业 铝日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 7 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 图1：机构净持仓 图2：机构多空比 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 铝观点： 五一假期期间伦铝先抑后扬，30 日美国公布 GDP 数据出现萎缩引发市场悲观 情绪打压伦铝下跌，随后非农就业数据发布悲观氛围缓解伦铝止跌反弹，节后首 日沪铝冲高回落，主力最高突破 2 万，但后续持续下跌，终报收于 19780，跌幅 达到 1%，指数总持仓减少 353 至 512475 手。华东现货货源充足，且下游看跌情 绪又起，现货成交贴水为主，日内华东 ...

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoint - Affected by US reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures during the holiday, global risk assets tumbled, and domestic non - ferrous metals opened almost limit - down. However, supported by fundamentals, Shanghai aluminum rebounded. The trading logic has shifted from re - inflation to concerns about global economic slowdown or recession. Although the aluminum fundamentals are fair, due to the escalation of the tariff war and economic uncertainties, short - term operations should be cautious [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai aluminum's main contract 2505 opened at 19,000 yuan/ton, then rebounded, with the highest intraday reaching 19,905 yuan/ton and closing at 19,685 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.67%. The total index positions increased by 1,486 to 487,716 lots. The spot market was cautious, with different premiums and discounts in different regions. The import loss narrowed to about - 1,300 yuan/ton. Alumina followed the decline but was relatively resilient. Considering the tariff war and economic uncertainties, short - term operations need to be cautious [8] 2. Industry News - India imposed anti - dumping duties of 479 - 721 US dollars/ton on Chinese aluminum foil no thicker than 80 microns for 5 years, with some products excluded [9][10] - Rio Tinto postponed the restart of Tiwai Point aluminum smelter until August 31 to ensure 50MW of winter power supply. The plant's installed capacity is 365,000 tons, and the current restart progress is about 70% [10] - Hydro will invest 1.56 billion US dollars to build a new wire casting workshop with an annual output of 110,000 tons at its Karmøy aluminum plant, scheduled to be put into operation in Q1 2028, responding to the demand for low - carbon aluminum wires in European energy infrastructure [10]

Group 1: General Information - Report Title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: April 3, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team, including researchers Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, and Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Aluminum Price Movement: On the 2nd, Shanghai aluminum continued to decline, with the main contract reaching a low of 20,365 yuan/ton and closing at 20,435 yuan/ton, down 0.24% from the previous trading day. The total index position decreased by 2,812 to 492,595 lots [9]. - Spot Market: As the futures price declined, downstream replenishment increased. In the back structure, holders were more willing to sell. The premium in East China was 10, the discount in Central China was -60, and the discount in South China was -30. It is expected that the premium and discount will continue to stabilize and rise [9]. - Import Situation: The import loss continued to narrow, closing at around -1,300 yuan/ton, currently in a closed state [9]. - Alumina Market: The alumina market was bearish, with the closing price falling below 2,900, hitting new lows. Short-term production cuts and maintenance could not change the expectation of loose supply, and the weakness was difficult to reverse [9]. - Aluminum Industry Profit: The average profit of the electrolytic aluminum industry was still around 3,700 yuan/ton, and the operating capacity of the industry continued to rise slightly [9]. - Demand Support: In the traditional peak season, although the traditional real estate sector still had a drag, the demand from the photovoltaic, new energy vehicle, and UHV sectors provided core support, driving the de - stocking inflection point earlier than expected. The resilience of consumption supported the domestic aluminum price [9]. - Operation Suggestions: High - level short positions established earlier could consider gradually taking profits, and long positions should wait for low - level entry and conduct rolling operations [9]. Group 3: Industry News - India's Anti - Dumping Decision: India's Ministry of Commerce and Industry issued an affirmative final anti - dumping ruling on aluminum foil with a thickness of no more than 80 microns originating from or imported from China and recommended a 5 - year anti - dumping duty of 479 - 721 US dollars/ton [10]. - Tiwai Point Aluminum Smelter: Rio Tinto agreed to postpone the resumption of production at the Tiwai Point electrolytic aluminum plant until August 31 at the latest to ensure 50MW of power supply for Meridian Energy in the winter of 2025. The plant's installed capacity is 365,000 tons, and the current resumption progress is about 70% [11]. - Hydro's Expansion Plan: In March 2025, Norwegian aluminum and renewable energy company Hydro announced a plan to build a new wire casting workshop with an annual output of 110,000 tons at its Karmøy electrolytic aluminum plant, with a total investment of 1.65 billion Norwegian kroner (about 156 million US dollars). The new facility will mainly supply power cables for European energy infrastructure [11].