英伟达市值一夜蒸发1.4万亿元 10月14日，美国三大股指收盘涨跌互现。道琼斯工业平均指数上涨0.44%，收于46270.46点；标普500指 数下跌0.16%，收于6644.31点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.76%，收于22521.7点。 鲍威尔近期讲话 据新华社报道，鲍威尔14日重申，美联储将在每次会议上根据不断变化的经济前景和风险评估，单独决 定货币政策，而不是遵循预先设定的路径。 国际货币基金组织（IMF）也发布了最新的《世界经济展望》，预测2025年全球经济增长率为3.2%，较 7月份的预测值上调0.2个百分点；2026年全球经济增长率为3.1%，与7月份的预测值持平。 2%……当天 在费城举行的美国商业经济协会年会上，鲍威尔表示，由于需要平衡就业和通胀这两个相互冲突的目 标，美联储的利率政策不存在无风险路径。 | 道琼斯 | 标普500 | 纳斯达克 | | --- | --- | --- | | 47085.24 | 23348.64 6771.55 | | | 51.44 -0.53% -486.08 -2.04% -80.42 -1.17% | | | | 多伦多300 巴西IBOVESPA ...

图片来源：央视新闻 据新华社，民主、共和两党围绕临时拨款法案的主要争议在于医保福利开支。美国《平价医疗法案》医保的2026年度参保登记于11月1日启动。由于两党 未能就相关政府补贴达成一致，保险公司公布的年度保费大幅上涨。参议院民主党领袖舒默4日在社交媒体上发文称，共和党人应该为明年飙升的医保价 格负责，"400万美国人将完全失去医疗保险"。 美国总统特朗普则继续把"停摆"归咎于民主党。3日，监管"补充营养援助计划"的美国农业部表示将动用一笔46.5亿美元的应急资金，作为该项目11月的部 分食品救济金进行发放。然而，特朗普4日在社交媒体上发文称，这些数千万低收入民众急需的救济金"只有在激进左翼民主党人给政府开门之后才能发 放"。 美国联邦政府运转资金本应来自年度预算拨款。国会两党通常应在10月1日新财年开始前通过新的年度拨款法案。但由于近年来两党争斗激烈，往往无法 及时达成一致，国会便试图通过临时拨款法案暂时维持联邦政府运转。 据央视新闻，当地时间11月4日，美国国会参议院以54票对44票的结果，再次未能通过联邦政府临时拨款法案。 这意味美国联邦政府将继续"停摆"，10月1日开始的本轮联邦政府"停摆"即将打破 ...

Market Overview - The S&P 500 index fell by 1.17% to 6771.55 points, the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 2.04% to 23348.64 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.53% to 47085.24 points, indicating a market adjustment amid concerns over high valuations [1] Company Performance - Palantir, a leading AI application stock, saw its shares decline by 7.94% despite reporting earnings that exceeded expectations and raising its performance guidance. The stock has quadrupled in value over the past year, becoming a symbol of the "AI bubble" [2] - Nvidia's stock fell by 3.96%, while other major tech stocks like Apple and Microsoft experienced mixed results, with Apple rising by 0.37% and Microsoft dropping by 0.52% [7] Investor Sentiment - Investor confidence was further shaken by Michael Burry's disclosure of purchasing put options on Palantir and Nvidia, which raised concerns among retail investors [5] - The retail investor preference index compiled by Goldman Sachs dropped by 3.6%, approximately three times the decline of the S&P 500 index, reflecting a challenging day for day traders [5] Market Predictions - BTIG's chief market technician, Jonathan Krinsky, indicated that the S&P 500 has not tested the 50-day moving average since April, currently around 6654 points, and suggested potential declines to the 6400-6500 point range due to extreme market divergences [5] - Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley executives expressed concerns about a potential market pullback of 10% to 20% over the next 12 to 24 months, with Morgan Stanley's CEO suggesting that a 10%-15% correction would be welcome if not driven by macroeconomic factors [5] Broader Market Trends - Similar to the U.S. stock market, commodities, including oil and gold, experienced declines, with Bitcoin dropping nearly 6% and Ethereum falling over 10% in the cryptocurrency market [6] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 2.05%, with notable declines in Chinese stocks such as Alibaba down 2.02% and JD.com down 2.93% [8]

美国股市周二大幅下挫，大型银行高管的谨慎言论引发投资者对高估值风险的担忧。标普500指数和纳 斯达克指数创下自10月10日以来的最大单日跌幅，反映出在人工智能热潮推动股市屡创新高后，市场情 绪开始趋于谨慎。 来源：第一财经 【#纳指创近1个月最大单日跌幅#！#美股科技股领跌英伟达跌近4%#】*纳指和标普500创近一个月最大 单日跌幅 *大型银行高管警告股市估值偏高 *科技股领跌，英伟达跌近4% 截至收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌251.44点，收于47085.24点，跌幅0.53%；标准普尔500指数下跌 80.42点，收于6771.55点，跌幅1.17%；纳斯达克综合指数下跌486.08点，收于23348.64点，跌幅 2.04%。 标普500指数11个主要板块中有8个下跌，科技板块领跌，下挫2.3%；金融板块逆势上涨。费城半导体 指数下跌4%，拖累整体市场表现。 高估值板块成为资金回撤的主要方向。大型科技股多数下跌，微软下跌0.52%，亚马逊下跌1.84%，谷 歌A下跌2.18%，英伟达下跌3.96%，特斯拉大跌5.15%，Meta下跌1.63%，仅苹果微涨0.37%。 超微电脑盘后跌超9%，因季度营收不及 ...

Market Overview - On November 4, the A-share market experienced a volume contraction with the ChiNext Index dropping nearly 2%. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.41%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 1.71%, and the ChiNext Index declined by 1.96%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was less than 2 trillion yuan, a decrease of 191.4 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] - Over 3,600 stocks in the market declined, with the Fujian sector rising against the trend, while the innovative drug concept faced fluctuations and precious metal stocks collectively fell [2] International Market - The U.S. stock market saw declines on November 4, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping by 251.44 points (0.53%) to close at 47,085.24 points, the S&P 500 falling by 80.42 points (1.17%) to 6,771.55 points, and the Nasdaq Composite decreasing by 486.089 points (2.04%) to 23,348.64 points. Major tech stocks like Intel and Tesla saw significant drops, with Tesla losing over 5% and a market value loss of approximately 57.18 billion yuan [3][5] - European markets showed mixed results, with the UK FTSE 100 rising by 0.14%, while the French CAC40 and German DAX indices fell by 0.52% and 0.76%, respectively [3] Commodity Prices - International oil prices fell on November 4, with light crude oil futures for December delivery down by $0.49 to $60.56 per barrel (0.8% decline) and Brent crude for January delivery down by $0.45 to $64.44 per barrel [4][6] Central Bank Actions - The People's Bank of China announced a 700 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on November 5 to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, with a term of three months [7] Semiconductor Industry - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce commented on the ASML semiconductor issue, emphasizing that the Dutch government's actions have severely harmed Chinese companies' rights and escalated the global supply chain crisis. The ministry called for constructive solutions to stabilize the semiconductor supply chain [8][9] Fund Management - A new guideline for public fund performance benchmarks has been issued, encouraging equity investments and clarifying investment styles. The benchmark library includes 69 indices in the first category and 72 in the second category, aimed at improving comparability among fund performances [10] Automotive Industry - The China Passenger Car Association estimated that wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in October reached 1.61 million units, a year-on-year increase of 16% and a month-on-month increase of 7%. Cumulative sales from January to October reached 12.054 million units, up 30% year-on-year [11] Upcoming Events - The 2025 6G Development Conference will be held in Beijing from November 13 to 14, focusing on the latest research results and standardization of 6G technology [12] Tourism Initiatives - Heilongjiang Province will launch a "100-day action" for winter ice and snow tourism from November 8, 2025, to February 28, 2026, aiming to innovate and enhance the tourism experience [13] Cosmetics Industry - Shanghai is promoting high-end and emerging brands in the cosmetics sector through new policies aimed at enhancing innovation and optimizing the industry ecosystem [14] Institutional Insights - Zhongtai Securities views the publishing sector as having both defensive and offensive strengths, while Dongfang Securities highlights the growth potential for SiC/GaN devices in new power supply solutions [15][16]

风险提示及免责条款 美国总统特朗普日前在接受采访时表示不会允许英伟达向中国出售最先进芯片，《华尔街日报》11月4 日援引美国现任和前任政府官员的话爆料称，在美中元首会晤前，特朗普一度希望讨论英伟达首席执行 官黄仁勋提出的请求，即允许其向中国销售新一代人工智能（AI）芯片，但最终在高层顾问近乎一致 的反对下决定不在会晤中讨论此事。 "中美贸易战休战数天后，中国划出几条红线"，美国彭博社4日援引中国驻美国大使谢锋前一日在一场 活动上致辞称，台湾、民主人权、道路制度、发展权利是中方的四条红线。谢锋表示，关税战、贸易 战、产能战、科技战，都是走不通的死胡同。当务之急是细化落实中美元首会晤共识和吉隆坡经贸磋商 联合安排，以实实在在的行动和成果，给中美和世界经济吃下"定心丸"。这家美媒称，当下任何的美中 贸易休战都十分脆弱，中方呼吁美方不要触碰四个敏感问题，以确保上周美中元首会晤的友好氛围可以 持续下去。 本文作者：吴鸣，来源：环球时报，原文标题：《美高官被爆阻挠与中国讨论英伟达芯片》 据美媒介绍，Blackwell这一代图形处理器是英伟达设计的最强大的AI芯片，批准该芯片出口将是一项 巨大的政策转变。黄仁勋一直在不懈地 ...

据央视新闻，当地时间11月4日，美国国会参议院以54票对44票的结果，再次未能通过联邦政府临时拨款法案。 这意味美国联邦政府将继续"停摆"，10月1日开始的本轮联邦政府"停摆"即将打破2018年年底至2019年年初"停摆"35天的历史纪录，成为美国历史上持续 时间最长的政府"停摆"。 图片来源：央视新闻 据新华社，民主、共和两党围绕临时拨款法案的主要争议在于医保福利开支。美国《平价医疗法案》医保的2026年度参保登记于11月1日启动。由于两党 未能就相关政府补贴达成一致，保险公司公布的年度保费大幅上涨。参议院民主党领袖舒默4日在社交媒体上发文称，共和党人应该为明年飙升的医保价 格负责，"400万美国人将完全失去医疗保险"。 美国总统特朗普则继续把"停摆"归咎于民主党。3日，监管"补充营养援助计划"的美国农业部表示将动用一笔46.5亿美元的应急资金，作为该项目11月的部 分食品救济金进行发放。然而，特朗普4日在社交媒体上发文称，这些数千万低收入民众急需的救济金"只有在激进左翼民主党人给政府开门之后才能发 放"。 图片来源：视觉中国 每经编辑｜陈柯名 美国联邦政府运转资金本应来自年度预算拨款。国会两党通常应在10 ...

当地时间11月4日，知名苹果爆料人马克·古尔曼最新发文表示，苹果正准备进军低价笔记本电脑市场， 开发一款价格亲民的Mac，以吸引那些原本使用Chromebook及入门级Windows电脑的消费者。古尔曼 称，有知情人士透露，这款新设备主要面向学生、商务人士和普通用户，主要瞄准那些以浏览网页、处 理文档或进行轻度媒体编辑为主的用户，预计将在明年上半年推出。古尔曼表示，苹果计划通过使用较 低端的组件，将这款机器的售价控制在1000美元以下。 NO.2 "大空头"做空英伟达和Palantir 当地时间11月4日，电影《大空头》原型、对冲基金经理Michael Burry在报告中披露，其在第三季度买 入了Palantir和英伟达的看跌期权。而且就规模而言，这并非是普通的看跌期权，而是巨额头寸。以 Burry管理的资产规模来衡量的话，Palantir看跌期权名义价值高达9.12亿美元，英伟达看跌期权的名义 价值达1.86亿美元，两者合计占到Burry执掌的Scion资产管理公司投资组合权重的80%。报告显示， Burry不仅看到了泡沫，而且正在采取行动。周二，AI应用大牛股Palantir跌近8%，英伟达跌近4%，纳 ...

周二，美股三大指数集体重挫，纳指科技指数收跌超2.5%，半导体指数跌4%。多家华尔街大行CEO公 开警告美股市场可能出现回调，直接点燃了投资者的焦虑。 【美股】截至收盘，道指跌251.44点，跌幅为0.53%，报47085.24点；纳指跌486.09点，跌幅为2.04%， 报23348.64点；标普500指数跌80.34点，跌幅为1.17%，报6771.63点。科技七巨头中六家下跌，费城半 导体指数重挫4%。微软(MSFT.US)跌0.52%，Meta(META.US)跌1.63%，亚马逊(AMZN.US)跌1.84%，谷 歌(GOOGL.US)跌2.18%，英伟达(NVDA.US)跌3.96%，特斯拉(TSLA.US)跌5.15%。 【欧股】欧洲STOXX600指数收跌0.30%，报570.58点；德国DAX30指数收跌0.76%，报23949.11点；法 国CAC40指数收跌0.52%，报8067.53点；英国富时100指数收涨0.14%，报9714.96点。 【原油】受美元走强和供应过剩预期拖累，油价下跌，结束此前连续四个交易日的涨势。12月交割的 WTI原油期货价格下跌0.8%，结算价为每桶60.56 ...

Core Insights - Aletheia Capital's report highlights a significant underestimation of the demand for advanced packaging, particularly CoWoS, driven by emerging AI applications [1] - The report predicts a substantial capacity shortfall for TSMC's CoWoS technology, with a projected gap of 400,000 units in 2026 and 700,000 units in 2027, indicating a severe supply-demand imbalance [1] Group 1: Demand Drivers - The growth in GPU shipments and the rapid expansion of photomask sizes are identified as the two main drivers for CoWoS demand [1] - New devices such as server CPUs, high-end PCs, and gaming console chips are expected to adopt CoWoS technology starting in the second half of this year, with a significant acceleration anticipated by 2026 [1] Group 2: Beneficiaries - Aletheia names six Taiwanese companies—TSMC, ASE Technology Holding, Kyec, ChipMOS, Wistron NeWeb, and Hongjing Precision—as beneficiaries of the positive industry trend, recommending a "buy" for these stocks [1] - TSMC's CoWoS-dependent chips include products from Nvidia, AMD, Microsoft, and Broadcom, indicating a broad reliance on TSMC's advanced packaging capabilities [2] Group 3: Capacity Expansion Challenges - Despite TSMC's plans to quadruple CoWoS capacity between 2024 and 2027, this expansion is expected to fall short of the rapidly growing demand, prompting customers to seek assistance from packaging manufacturers [2] - Companies like ASE and Amkor are expected to play crucial roles in packaging for new products, with significant increases in CoWoS demand projected between 2025 and 2027 [2] Group 4: Testing and Outsourcing - Kyec is set to benefit from strong growth in testing services for Broadcom's AI ASICs starting in 2026, as well as from TSMC's outsourcing of wafer probing tests [2] - Wistron NeWeb is also expected to gain from TSMC's outsourcing strategy, as packaging manufacturers increasingly adopt Wistron NeWeb's solutions [2]