股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年8月31日 狀態: 新提交 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01193 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 10,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.1 | HKD | | 1,000,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | HKD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 10,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.1 | HKD | | 1,000,000,000 | 本月底法定/註冊股本總額： HKD 1,000,000,000 FF301 第 1 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.1.1 致：香港交易 ...

证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2025-09-02 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观深度报告 20250901：补贴与竞争：哪些地区和行业内卷更严重？— —统一大市场系列研究之一 土地补贴和财税补贴是地方政府间横向竞争的工具。我们尝试量化产业 政策中土地和财税补贴的规模，并识别哪些地区和行业的税负率更低。土 地补贴方面，按照价差计算，2017-2024 年 70 城工业部门获得的土地补 贴年均 1.45 万亿，占全国 GDP 的 1.3%左右；财税补贴方面，按照与法 定税率的差距来算，2023 年制造业的企业所得税税收优惠约 7300 亿，占 GDP 的 0.56%。结合地区和行业来看，可以识别内卷程度，汽车制造业、 电气机械、电子设备等行业大多是中西部省份内卷更严重，存在利润率和 税负率双低的情况，具体见 2.2.4。近年来，面临房地产市场下行、"反内 卷"规范地方政府补贴、消费税改革等三大变革，传统的横向竞争模式正 在迎来转变，地方政府将从"逐底竞争"转向"逐顶竞争"。 风险提示： （1）房地产和土地市场变化，对地方政府行为影响较大，如果未来房地 产市场出现趋 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Resources Gas (01193.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's H1 2025 operating data fell short of expectations, with a revenue of HKD 49.79 billion, down 4.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of HKD 2.40 billion, down 30.5% year-on-year. The proposed interim dividend is HKD 0.30 per share, an increase of 20% year-on-year, with a payout ratio of 29% [7] - The decline in performance is attributed to a decrease in retail gas volume and a drop in income from comprehensive services and connections. The company anticipates low single-digit growth in retail gas volume for the full year 2025, with a slight increase in gross margin [7] - The company is managing capital expenditures and enhancing shareholder returns, with operating cash flow of HKD 3.01 billion in H1 2025 and a commitment to maintain or increase dividend payouts [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are HKD 101.27 billion, HKD 102.68 billion, HKD 92.87 billion, HKD 95.67 billion, and HKD 99.04 billion respectively, with a year-on-year change of 7.35%, 1.39%, -9.55%, 3.01%, and 3.53% [1] - The net profit forecasts for the same years are HKD 5.22 billion, HKD 4.09 billion, HKD 3.73 billion, HKD 3.97 billion, and HKD 4.29 billion, reflecting year-on-year changes of 10.36%, -21.74%, -8.82%, 6.59%, and 7.91% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2025E is projected at HKD 1.61, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.35, 11.59, and 10.74 for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively [1][8]

Market Overview - In August, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 10.33%, while the public utility index increased by 2.53% and the environmental index by 5.28% [1][22] - The public utility and environmental sectors ranked 25th and 21st respectively among 31 first-level industry classifications [1][22] - The environmental sector saw a 5.28% increase, with sub-sectors such as thermal power up by 4.69% and new energy generation up by 2.26% [1][22] Important Policies and Events - The Central Committee and State Council issued opinions on promoting green and low-carbon transformation, aiming for a nationwide carbon trading market to cover major industrial sectors by 2027 [14][15] - The opinions also emphasize energy conservation and carbon reduction in production, promoting green lifestyles, and enhancing urban ecological environment governance [15][16] Investment Strategy - Public Utilities: - Thermal power profitability is expected to remain reasonable due to synchronized declines in coal and electricity prices, recommending companies like Huadian International and Shanghai Electric [3][21] - Continuous policy support for new energy development is anticipated to stabilize profitability, recommending leading companies such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy [3][21] - Nuclear power companies are expected to maintain stable profitability, recommending China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power [3][21] - High-dividend hydropower stocks are highlighted for their defensive attributes, recommending Changjiang Power [3][21] - For gas, companies with regional advantages like China Resources Gas are recommended [3][21] - Environmental Sector: - The water and waste incineration sectors are entering maturity, with improved free cash flow, recommending Everbright Environment and Zhongshan Public Utilities [3][21] - The domestic scientific instrument market presents significant opportunities, recommending Focused Photonics [3][21] - The EU's SAF policy is expected to benefit the domestic waste oil recycling industry, recommending Shanggou Environmental Energy [3][21] - The agricultural biomass power generation sector is seeing cost improvements, recommending Changqing Group [3][21] Industry Key Data Overview - In July, the total electricity consumption reached 1,022.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 8.6% [59] - The cumulative installed capacity of renewable energy reached 1.41 billion kW by the end of 2024, accounting for 42% of total installed capacity [19] - The average utilization hours of power generation equipment decreased by 188 hours compared to the previous year [76]

Core Viewpoint - DBS reported that China Resources Gas (01193) experienced a 30.5% year-on-year decline in net profit for the first half of the year, falling short of expectations, primarily due to weak new connection volumes and sluggish comprehensive service operations [1] Financial Performance - The company's net profit dropped by 30.5% year-on-year, indicating significant underperformance against market expectations [1] - The forecast for comprehensive service revenue is expected to show negative growth as the company adjusts its development strategy [1] Market Conditions - The ongoing sluggish real estate market continues to suppress new connection demand, impacting overall performance [1] Earnings Forecast - Earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised downwards by 6% and 12% respectively, reflecting a cautious outlook [1] Investment Rating - Based on a prudent outlook, the rating is maintained at "Hold," with the target price adjusted from HKD 24.3 to HKD 20.5 [1] - The stock is still considered to offer an attractive dividend yield of over 5% [1]

Core Viewpoint - DBS reported that China Resources Gas (01193) experienced a 30.5% year-on-year decline in net profit for the first half of the year, falling short of expectations, primarily due to weak new connection volumes and comprehensive service business [1] Financial Performance - The company's net profit decreased by 30.5% year-on-year, which was below market expectations [1] - The forecast for comprehensive service revenue is expected to show negative growth due to a strategic adjustment by the company and ongoing weakness in the real estate market, which continues to suppress new connection demand [1] Earnings Forecast - DBS has revised down its earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 6% and 12% respectively [1] Investment Rating - Based on a cautious outlook, DBS maintains a "Hold" rating and has lowered the target price from HKD 24.3 to HKD 20.5 [1] - The stock is still considered to provide an attractive dividend yield of over 5% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Daiwa's report indicates that China Resources Gas (01193) experienced a 30% year-on-year decline in net profit for the first half of the year, suggesting potential management issues as it underperformed compared to peers, which may lead investors to demand a higher risk premium [1] Financial Performance - The company reported a 30% decline in net profit year-on-year for the first half of the year [1] - As the last city gas company to announce its half-year results, the performance of China Resources Gas was notably weaker across almost all metrics compared to its industry peers [1] Analyst Adjustments - Daiwa has revised its earnings per share forecasts for the company downwards by 19% to 25% for the years 2025 to 2027 [1] - The target price for China Resources Gas has been lowered from HKD 19.9 to HKD 16 [1] - The rating for the company has been set to "Sell" [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Daiwa indicates that China Resources Gas (01193) experienced a 30% year-on-year decline in net profit for the first half of the year, suggesting potential management issues and leading to a demand for higher risk premiums from investors [1] Financial Performance - China Resources Gas reported a 30% decrease in net profit compared to the previous year [1] - The company is the last urban gas company to announce its half-year results, and its performance is below that of its peers in almost all aspects [1] Analyst Adjustments - Daiwa has revised its earnings per share forecasts for China Resources Gas downwards by 19% to 25% for the years 2025 to 2027 [1] - The target price for the company has been reduced from HKD 19.9 to HKD 16 [1] - The rating for China Resources Gas has been set to "Sell" [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gas industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slight increase in raw gas demand leading to a minor rise in US gas prices, while European storage advancements have contributed to a decrease in gas prices [4][9]. - The overall supply-demand dynamics indicate a modest increase in raw gas demand, with US natural gas market prices rising by 3.3% week-on-week as of August 27, 2025 [16]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing integration of Jiufeng Energy and the gradual implementation of pricing reforms across the country, which are expected to enhance profitability and valuation recovery for city gas companies [35]. Price Tracking - As of August 29, 2025, the week-on-week changes in gas prices are as follows: US HH +3.3%, European TTF -6.6%, East Asia JKM -2.9%, China LNG ex-factory price 0%, and China LNG CIF price -6.2% [9][14]. - The average total supply of natural gas in the US increased by 0.1% week-on-week to 1,127 billion cubic feet per day, while total demand decreased by 3.5% to 1,025 billion cubic feet per day [16]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The report notes that the storage pace in Europe is slower than expected, leading to a week-on-week decrease in European gas prices by 6.6% [17]. - In China, the apparent consumption of natural gas from January to July 2025 increased by 0.3% year-on-year to 246.1 billion cubic meters, attributed to warmer winter conditions affecting heating gas demand [22][27]. Pricing Progress - The report states that 65% of cities have implemented residential pricing reforms, with an average price increase of 0.21 yuan per cubic meter [35]. - The introduction of a new pricing mechanism for provincial natural gas pipeline transportation is expected to lower costs for downstream users and promote industry growth [35]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from the ongoing pricing reforms, particularly highlighting New Energy, China Gas, and Kunlun Energy as key investment opportunities [4][35]. - It also suggests monitoring companies with quality long-term contracts and flexible scheduling capabilities, such as Jiufeng Energy and Xin'ao [4].

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 9 月 1 日 今日焦点 每月金股 九月研选-宏观环境趋稳+流动性宽松，港股有望 延续向好态势 交银国际研究团队 宏观不确定性持续消退，全球风险偏好明显回升。8 月以来海外宏观环境的 不确定性延续降温态势，美国与主要经济体就贸易框架达成初步共识，同时 宣布将对华关税措施延迟 90 天实施并继续推进双边谈判。与此同时，欧洲 地缘冲突相关谈判有所转机，整体局势边际缓解。 "反内卷"政策效应持续释放，流动性波动对交投活跃度形成扰动。"反内卷" 政策持续推进，相关预期继续推动传统周期行业及部分新兴产业龙头企业的 估值修复进程。 海内外流动性宽松周期下，港股有望延续向好势头。当前我国流动性延续宽 松，A 股市场情绪活跃，亦有望提振港股交易氛围。南向资金对港股科技等 板块的配置需求保持旺盛，资金净流入态势有望延续。海外方面，美联储主 席鲍威尔杰克逊霍尔释放 9 月降息大门敞开的信号，港股有望受益于外资流 入的增加。 九月研选 | 全球主要指数 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘价 | 升跌% | 年初至今 升跌% | | 恒指 | 25, ...