Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for Semiconductor Production Equipment is Attractive [2]. Core Insights - The semiconductor production equipment market is expected to experience strong growth driven by demand for advanced packaging materials and AI-related technologies [12][34]. - Major companies like Microsoft and NVIDIA are significantly increasing their capital expenditures, which will positively impact the semiconductor equipment sector [8][21]. - The demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and advanced packaging technologies is projected to rise, creating opportunities for companies like Advantest and Disco [34][12]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The semiconductor production equipment market is anticipated to grow despite a slow recovery in the overall semiconductor market, with advanced packaging applications expected to outpace other segments [12][34]. - The WFE (Wafer Fabrication Equipment) market is projected to see low-single digit negative growth in 2025 [16]. Company Ratings - Advantest (6857.T) is rated Overweight with a target price based on a P/E of 14.0x [49]. - Disco (6146.T) is rated Overweight with a target P/E of 25.1x [46]. - SCREEN Holdings (7735.T) is rated Overweight with a target P/E of 11.9x [54]. - Tokyo Electron (8035.T) is rated Equal-weight [113]. Demand Drivers - The increasing need for AI servers and advanced packaging materials is driving demand for semiconductor production equipment [8][12]. - Companies are expected to ramp up capital expenditures directed at HBM4 and advanced packaging technologies starting from the second half of 2025 [8][12]. Geopolitical Factors - The US-China trade tensions and export restrictions are influencing the semiconductor equipment market, particularly affecting sales to China [20][22]. - Domestic production of AI chips in China is expected to increase capital intensity, benefiting companies like Advantest and Tokyo Seimitsu [21].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for UBTECH Robotics is "Buy / High Risk" [8] Core Insights - UBTECH's humanoid robot business is currently behind schedule, but management is confident in meeting the 2025 shipment guidance of 300-500 units, with potential for exceeding this target due to multiple projects [1][2] - The efficiency of the humanoid robot Walker S1 is expected to improve from 40-50% of human efficiency to 80-90% by the end of 2025 through optimized motion control algorithms [1] - A new customer, a Chinese NEV OEM cooperating with Huawei, is anticipated to emerge in Q3 2025 [1][3] - Management believes that bipedal robots are more suitable for industrial applications compared to wheeled robots, although wheeled options may still be offered for specific long-range tasks [4] - The new version of the humanoid robot, Walker S2, is under calibration and is expected to debut in July or August 2025 [5] Financial Overview - The current share price is HK$83.95, with a target price set at HK$108.00, indicating an expected share price return of 28.6% [6] - The expected total return, including dividend yield, is also 28.6% [6] - The market capitalization of UBTECH Robotics is HK$37,087 million (approximately US$4,724 million) [6] Valuation - The target price of HK$108.00 is based on approximately 22x the estimated price-to-sales (P/S) ratio for 2025, aligning with the average P/S of other companies in the humanoid robot supply chain [16]

Summary of the Conference Call on Humanoid Robots Industry Industry Overview - The humanoid robot industry is transitioning from laboratory iterations to commercial applications in vertical scenarios such as inspection, healthcare, logistics, and manufacturing [1][3] - The cost of core components like lead screws has significantly decreased, enabling faster iterations and closer proximity to mass production for companies like Tesla [1][3] Key Insights - Humanoid robots currently operate at approximately 0.3 times the efficiency of humans, with increasing demand from the ToB (business-to-business) sector [4] - The focus for future development will be on upper limb capabilities and brain technology, with dexterous hands being a critical hardware component [1][4] - Major players in the humanoid robot market include Huawei, Xiaomi, and Tesla, while emerging companies have opportunities to challenge these leaders [1][4] Market Projections - Expected shipment volumes for humanoid robots are projected to reach nearly 20,000 units in 2025 and 100,000 units in 2026, indicating a rapid growth phase [1][4] Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities in the second half of the year will focus on specific market segments and technological iterations, particularly in sensors, reducers, and high-density motors [1][5] - The supply chain is expected to see significant developments, with Tesla's supply chain already forming, and new opportunities arising in sensor technology and precision components [5][6] Technological Developments - The rapid iteration cycle of humanoid robots (approximately 2-3 months) allows for quicker technological advancements compared to electric vehicles, which typically have a 12-18 month cycle [7] - Key areas of technological focus include dexterous hands, lead screws, pick and place mechanisms, reducers, electronic skin, and six-dimensional force sensors [9][21] Supply Chain Dynamics - Core value and technological barriers in the supply chain are concentrated in components such as hand joints, lead screws, six-dimensional force sensors, and harmonic reducers [8] - The lead screw market has seen a dramatic price drop, with ball screw prices decreasing from several thousand yuan to under 500 yuan [12] Emerging Technologies - PEEK materials are gaining traction in the industry, with potential price reductions leading to broader applications in robotics [10][15] - The electronic skin technology is still evolving, with various approaches being explored, including resistive and magnetic methods [13][19] - Six-dimensional force sensors face challenges in cost and mass production, with ongoing developments needed in new technology routes [14][20] Conclusion - The humanoid robot industry is poised for significant growth, driven by technological advancements and increasing commercial applications. Investment opportunities are abundant, particularly in supply chain components and emerging technologies. Key players and new entrants alike will play crucial roles in shaping the future landscape of this industry [21]

荣耀终端股份有限公司（以下简称"荣耀"）的上市进程近日取得了重要进展。据证监会官网信息，6月 26日，荣耀已完成上市辅导备案，辅导券商选定为中信证券。按照辅导计划，该公司预计将在2026年1 月至3月期间完成上市辅导工作。 在市场竞争方面，荣耀的表现依然强劲。根据市场研究机构Canalys发布的数据，2024年全年，荣耀在 中国大陆智能手机市场的份额接近15%，位居国内市场第五位。尽管在全球市场，荣耀的销量份额仅为 5%，排名第七，但其在国内市场的稳固地位仍然为其上市提供了坚实的基础。随着华为手机业务的逐 步恢复，荣耀也面临着来自原用户市场的竞争压力。 从股东结构来看，荣耀目前拥有23家股东，其中包括深圳市鹏程新信息技术合伙企业、深圳市春芽联合 科技合伙企业、深圳市智信新信息技术有限公司、深圳市宝安区投资管理集团有限公司、国信资本、京 东方科技集团股份有限公司、中国电信、中国移动、金石星耀（深圳）智能设备私募股权投资基金合伙 企业等。值得注意的是，春芽联合集合了27家荣耀的渠道商和代理商，这显示了荣耀在渠道建设方面的 强大实力。 在资本层面，荣耀也动作频频。2024年8月下旬，荣耀宣布获得中国移动的投资。同年 ...

Core Insights - The Canton Fair, established in 1957, is a significant biannual event that showcases the internationalization of China's trade [2][3] - The current edition has attracted nearly 43,000 exhibitors and around 250,000 visitors, covering an area of 1.55 million square meters [3][4] Global Reach and Promotion - The fair has expanded its international reach through promotional events in various cities, including Vienna, Budapest, and Amsterdam, as well as in African countries like Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Kenya [5] - The Canton Fair has been instrumental in helping Chinese brands, such as BYD, Huawei, Haier, and Lenovo, gain global recognition and market penetration [6] Opportunities for Businesses - The fair provides a platform for both large and small businesses to network and expand beyond major Chinese cities [8] - It accommodates a diverse range of sectors, with the spring fair focusing on electronics and home appliances, while the autumn fair emphasizes textiles and consumer goods [9] Changing Business Mindset - The participation of big companies aims to enhance international exposure and experience, reflecting a shift in the business mindset of Chinese exhibitors towards more proactive engagement in international trade [11][12] - The rise of Chinese fashion brands and designers illustrates the evolving outlook of Chinese enterprises in the global market [13] Cultural Appeal - The fair is complemented by the cultural attractions of Guangzhou, enhancing the overall experience for visitors [14] Future Prospects - The latest edition of the Canton Fair is expected to be larger and more impactful, aligning with the growing importance of international trading opportunities [15][16]

June 23, 2025 11:47 AM GMT Investor Presentation | Asia Pacific M Foundation Lingering Deflation Despite Tariff Detente Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Robin Xing Chief China Economist Robin.Xing@morganstanley.com +852 2848-6511 For important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report. M Tariffs De-escalated, Challenges Remain 2025 GDP to sustain at 4.5%, with less tariff shock than seen before May 12th … 1.5 0.0 0.1 1.3 1.4 1.3 0.2 1.2 0.9 2.0 1.9 1.8 5.0 4.5 4.2 -2 -1 0 1 ...

Economic Shift & Geopolitics - The speaker argues there has been a rapid shift of economic power in the last 25 years, largely unnoticed [5] - The world order has changed significantly in the last 24-25 years [6] - The speaker challenges the Western media's narrative about China, finding it untrue based on personal observation [3][7] - The speaker highlights the "Thucydides Trap," suggesting the West is threatened by China's rise [16] - The speaker advocates for a multipolar world order, opposing hegemonic dominance by any single state [20][21][25] China's Economic Model & Development - China's economic model is described as a "socialist market economy," where the government owns core infrastructure but allows a private sector [14] - The private sector contributes significantly to China's GDP (60%), urban employment (80%), and new job creation (90%) [15] - China's rapid growth is likened to going from a bicycle to a spaceship in one lifetime, driven by economic reforms starting in 1978 [12] - The "Mayor's Economy" is mentioned as a development strategy, where local mayors are responsible for economic growth with state oversight [13] - China's Belt and Road Initiative is presented as a model for shared prosperity, contrasting with the concentration of wealth in the hands of a few in some Western economies [18][19] China's Future & Global Leadership - The World Bank projects China to be the number one economy by 2030 [27] - China is currently leading in areas like AI, electric vehicles (60 million), and digital finance [26] - The speaker emphasizes China's work ethic and long-term vision as key factors in its success [28] - A unified, multipolar system is needed to address global challenges like AI governance and pandemics [29]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Attractive [6]. Core Insights - Taiwan has added Huawei and SMIC to its export control list, requiring government permission for Taiwanese firms to conduct business with these companies, marking a significant regulatory shift [3][8]. - The report highlights Disco and Advantest as key players in the back-end semiconductor production equipment (SPE) market, which is less exposed to regulatory risks compared to front-end processes [8][10]. - There is an ongoing trend in China to promote domestic production of SPE, particularly for front-end processes, although the report suggests that China will eventually achieve self-sufficiency in high-performance components [4][9]. Summary by Sections Export Controls and Market Dynamics - Taiwan's Bureau of Foreign Trade updated its entity list, adding major Chinese firms, which may lead to similar actions by other US allies [3]. - The report emphasizes the need to monitor potential export restrictions from US allies on Japanese SPE [8]. Back-End Equipment Focus - The back-end process equipment is simpler and has seen successful localization in China, reducing the impact of export restrictions [9]. - Disco and Advantest are highlighted for their strong market positions and engineering capabilities, which allow them to maintain high market shares in China [10]. Company Ratings and Price Targets - Advantest is rated Overweight with a target price of ¥10,300 based on expected earnings growth [17]. - Disco is also rated Overweight with a target P/E of 25.1x, reflecting its strong growth potential [14].

Asia Memory Equities Memory prices continue to hover higher Korea Soaring memory prices: We reiterate our positive view on the memory sector. Previously, we highlighted a faster memory turnaround from April (see: Asia Memory report, 10 March). We now see that memory prices are hovering higher throughout 2Q, with a higher level of blended ASPs of +3-8% q-o-q due to 1) earlier phase-out of DDR4 products leading to aggressive purchases on the fear of shortages while solid demand for DDR4 is supported by the le ...

Core Insights - Arm Holdings (ARM) faces increasing risks of slower growth in China due to the country's shift towards RISC-V architecture, which contributed 19% of ARM's total sales in fiscal 2025, with revenues from China rising only 7.5% year over year [1][7] Group 1: Market Dynamics - China's ambition to localize its semiconductor ecosystem is driving the promotion of RISC-V as an alternative to Arm's proprietary models, offering cost advantages and design flexibility [2] - Major Chinese tech firms, including Alibaba Cloud, Huawei, Tencent, and ZTE, are backing RISC-V, which raises competitive pressure on ARM's presence in China [3][7] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - NVIDIA and AMD are closely monitoring China's shift to RISC-V, as it poses a threat to their market positions in AI hardware and server chips [4][5] - AMD's EPYC server chips directly compete with China's new Lingyu RISC-V server chip, indicating potential market share erosion for AMD if RISC-V adoption accelerates [5] Group 3: Financial Performance - ARM's stock has gained 18% year to date, outperforming the industry's 5% rally, but it trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 31.5, significantly higher than the industry's 8.1 [6][8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ARM's earnings has been declining over the past 60 days, reflecting potential challenges ahead [10]