Core Viewpoint - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) has experienced a significant share price increase of 19.7% over the past month, outperforming the broader Zacks Computer and Technology sector, which gained 16.2% during the same period [1][2]. Market Performance - The recent rally in TSM's stock is attributed to broader market optimism, particularly due to positive developments in U.S.-China trade negotiations, which alleviated fears of economic disruption and improved global growth prospects [2][3]. - Semiconductor stocks, including TSM, Broadcom, Marvell Technology, and NVIDIA, were major beneficiaries of this rally, recovering from a previous selloff following tariff announcements [4]. Growth Drivers - TSM is positioned at the forefront of the ongoing AI boom, which is expected to drive a multi-year structural growth cycle for the company [6]. - AI-related revenues for TSM tripled in 2024, constituting a mid-teen percentage of total revenues, with expectations to double again in 2025, reflecting a 40% compound annual growth rate over the next five years [7][9]. Financial Performance - TSM reported strong first-quarter results for 2025, with revenues increasing by 35% year over year to $25.53 billion and net income rising by 53% to nearly $11 billion, driven by demand for advanced 3nm and 5nm nodes [10]. - The company's first-quarter EPS also surged by 53.6% to $2.12, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.03, marking a consistent trend of beating earnings expectations [11]. Investment Outlook - TSM is set to invest between $38 billion and $42 billion in capital expenditures in 2025, significantly higher than the $29.8 billion investment in 2024, with a focus on advanced manufacturing processes [12]. - TSM's forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 18.51, below the sector average of 23.84, indicating an attractive valuation for potential investors [13][14]. Challenges - TSM faces near-term challenges, including a 25% increase in electricity prices in Taiwan, which could impact operational costs, especially for advanced nodes [15]. - Softness in key markets such as PCs and smartphones is expected to limit growth, with projected low single-digit growth in these sectors for 2025 [16]. - Rising operational costs from overseas expansions and geopolitical tensions, particularly with China, pose additional risks to TSM's outlook [18]. Conclusion - TSM's technological leadership and strategic investments position it as a compelling long-term player in the semiconductor industry, but short-term challenges necessitate a cautious approach, suggesting that holding TSM stock is currently the most prudent strategy [19].

Core Insights - JR Research is recognized as a top analyst in technology, software, and internet sectors, focusing on growth and GARP strategies [1] - The investment approach emphasizes identifying attractive risk/reward opportunities with robust price action to generate alpha above the S&P 500 [1][2] - The investment group Ultimate Growth Investing specializes in high-potential opportunities across various sectors with a focus on strong growth potential and contrarian plays [3] Investment Strategy - The strategy combines sharp price action analysis with fundamental investing to identify growth opportunities with significant upside potential [2] - The focus is on avoiding overhyped and overvalued stocks while targeting battered stocks that have recovery possibilities [2] - The investment outlook typically spans 18 to 24 months for the thesis to materialize [3] Target Audience - The group is designed for investors looking to capitalize on growth stocks with strong fundamentals, buying momentum, and turnaround plays at attractive valuations [3]

Core Insights - Steven Cress is a key figure in quantitative strategy and market data at Seeking Alpha, contributing to the platform's quantitative stock rating system and analytical tools [1][2][3] - The Seeking Alpha Quant Rating system aims to interpret data for investors, providing insights that save time and enhance investment decisions [1][2] - Cress has a strong background in investment research, having founded CressCap Investment Research and Cress Capital Management, and previously worked at Morgan Stanley and Northern Trust [3][4] Company Overview - Seeking Alpha has integrated Cress's expertise in quantitative analysis and market data, enhancing its offerings for investors [1][3] - The platform features a systematic stock recommendation tool called Alpha Picks, aimed at helping long-term investors build superior portfolios [1][2] Industry Impact - Cress's approach focuses on removing emotional biases from investment decisions through a data-driven methodology, which is increasingly relevant in today's investment landscape [2][4] - With over 30 years of experience, Cress is well-equipped to address various investment topics, indicating a depth of knowledge that can influence market trends [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious view on the technology sector, particularly on software and IT services, while highlighting structural growth opportunities in AI and semiconductors [26][31][44]. Core Insights - CIOs' IT budget growth expectations for 2025 have decreased to 5.8%, down 140 basis points from 2H24, with significant downward revisions anticipated in software and hardware spending [8][44]. - AI/ML/PA remains the top priority for CIOs, with 71% expecting AI/LLM projects to enhance IT investments in 2025, reflecting a 19 percentage point increase from 2H24 [53][70]. - The share of AI/LLM in total IT spending is projected to rise to 11.2% in 2025, up from 10% in 2H24, indicating a growing focus on AI-related investments [65][70]. Summary by Sections IT Budget Expectations - CIOs' average IT budget growth expectations fell to 5.8% for 2025, with a notable decline post-US tariff announcements, where expectations dropped from 6% to 2% [8][11][44]. - The survey indicates that 43% of CIOs foresee further downward revisions to their budgets following the tariffs, compared to 31% prior to the announcement [15][44]. AI and Technology Trends - AI/ML/PA has overtaken digital transformation as the most defensive area of IT spending, with significant increases in spending expectations [64][69]. - The report highlights that 34% of companies have initiated AI/LLM projects, with 39% expecting to have projects in production by 2025 [54][61]. Sector-Specific Insights - Software and IT services are expected to see the largest budget cuts, while semiconductors are anticipated to experience structural growth driven by AI, despite a delayed cyclical recovery [26][31][44]. - The hardware sector is expected to face reduced spending, particularly in PCs, while AI server hardware is projected to benefit from increased demand [33][37][70]. Preferred Companies - The report identifies several preferred companies within the AI and semiconductor sectors, including TSMC, MediaTek, and Beisen, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing AI trend [31][70][72]. - Caution is advised for companies with significant exposure to traditional tech and enterprise software, as macroeconomic uncertainties may hinder recovery [26][31][44].

Summary of Conference Call on ABF Substrate Industry Industry Overview - The ABF (Ajinomoto Build-up Film) substrate market is expected to experience oversupply conditions until the second half of 2026, with a projected 7% oversupply in 2025 [1][11][25]. - The total addressable market (TAM) for ABF substrates has been revised down by 12% and 10% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, due to lower-than-expected AI server GPU substrate shipments and increased pricing pressure [2][22]. Key Insights - **Demand Dynamics**: The demand for AI server substrates has been cut by approximately 50% for 2025, reflecting a significant decrease in AI server rack shipments, which are expected to decline by 35% [2][60]. - **Pricing Pressure**: The average selling price (ASP) for AI GPU substrates has decreased from over US$120 earlier in the year to US$100, indicating a challenging pricing environment [2][60]. - **Impact on Suppliers**: Tier-2 suppliers like Unimicron and Kinsus are expected to face significant challenges due to their exposure to legacy ABF products and weaker-than-expected spillover orders from tier-1 suppliers [2][9][24]. Supplier Performance - **Unimicron**: Downgraded to Neutral from Buy due to weaker AI spillover orders and a slow PC demand outlook. Target price revised from NT$170 to NT$90 [9][10]. - **Kinsus**: Downgraded to Sell from Neutral, with a new target price of NT$63, reflecting less favorable growth in the mid-to-low-end ABF substrate market [9][10]. - **Ibiden**: Maintained Buy rating with a target price of ¥6200, benefiting from its leading position in the high-end substrate market [10][22]. - **Zhen Ding Technology (ZDT)**: Initiated with a Buy rating, expected to benefit from ABF demand expansion from Chinese IC design houses [8]. Future Catalysts - The mid-to-long-term outlook for Taiwan ABF suppliers is expected to improve with the localization of AI IC production in China, projected to grow at a CAGR of 53% from 2025 to 2027 [3][4]. - Adoption of CPO (Chip-on-Package) technology is anticipated to double the consumption of switch IC ABF substrates compared to general 2.5D packaging substrates [3]. Capacity and Utilization - The overall industry capacity is expected to increase by approximately 40% from 2024 to 2027, with a significant portion of new capacity planned before 2024 [29][53]. - Utilization rates for ABF substrate suppliers are projected to improve in 2025, but overall industry utilization will remain below 80% [27][24]. Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include higher electricity costs in Taiwan and the impact of tariffs, which could increase costs as a percentage of revenue significantly [46][45]. - The overall cash margins for ABF substrate suppliers are expected to remain under pressure until at least the second half of 2025, with a potential recovery starting in 2026 [44][59]. Conclusion - The ABF substrate industry is currently facing a challenging environment with oversupply and pricing pressures, particularly affecting tier-2 suppliers. However, long-term growth opportunities exist through technological advancements and increased demand from AI-related applications. The market is expected to stabilize post-2026, with significant growth driven by AI and server upgrades.

在企业、资本和政府的大力支持下，人形机器人行业正在迅 速发展。我们预计到2050年全球市场规模将达到5万亿美元， 在本报告中，我们探讨了产业链上的最佳商业模式和投资机 会。 要点 全球人形机器人潜在市场规模 – 到2050年将达到5 万亿美元：我们的美国研究团队建立了摩根士丹利 的全球人形机器人TAM模型，该模型预测全球人形 机器人市场将超过全球汽车行业。我们预计到2050 年全球人形机器人销售额将达到 4.7 万亿美元，大 概是全球 20 家最大汽车厂商 2024 年总收入的两 倍，而这一数字在未来25年内很可能会大幅减少。 April 30, 2025 06:46 AM GMT 人形机器人 价值5万亿美元的全球市场 This translated report is made available for convenience only and is excerpted from the original research report published in English. In the event of any discrepancy between the translation and the ...

Investment Rating - The investment ratings for the companies mentioned in the report are as follows: AAC Technologies Holdings (1), BYD (1), NavInfo (3), Thunder Software Technology (3), TSMC (1), Xiaomi (1) [9] Core Insights - The Shanghai Auto Show highlighted the ongoing developments in the automotive technology sector, with key players like AAC, Xiaomi, ThunderSoft, and NavInfo showcasing their latest innovations and strategies [1] - AAC is expanding its automotive product offerings, including a new motor system, and has received projects from both domestic and international customers [2] - Xiaomi's YU7 launch is scheduled for June/July, with a significant backlog of over 200,000 SU7 orders, indicating strong demand [3] - ThunderSoft is focusing on its Cockpit+AI solution, which is expected to drive growth amid increasing competition from consumer electronics ODMs [5] - NavInfo is transforming into a tier-1 solution provider, with significant R&D investments aimed at enhancing its smart driving and smart cockpit capabilities [6] Summary by Company AAC Technologies - AAC showcased its automotive products for the first time, including acoustic, haptic, optics, and MEMS inertial sensors, and has secured projects from NEV customers [2] - The company is diversifying its business from smartphones to enhance growth potential in the automotive sector [2] Xiaomi - Xiaomi's presence at the auto show was less prominent compared to previous years, but the YU7 launch remains on track, with a substantial order backlog for the SU7 model [3] - The upcoming earnings report in Q1 2025 and new product launches could serve as catalysts for the company's stock [3] ThunderSoft - ThunderSoft introduced its AquaDriveOS and Cockpit+AI solutions, which are expected to meet the growing demand for smart vehicle technologies [5] - The company anticipates a pickup in smart drive demand in Q1 2025, despite intensifying competition [5] NavInfo - NavInfo aims to position itself as a new tier-1 provider with capabilities in both hardware and software, supported by a strong AI infrastructure [6] - The company has secured significant projects for its basic driving and smart cockpit solutions, indicating robust demand for its offerings [6] Industry Trends - Supply chain concerns are affecting the adoption of AD/ADAS technologies, but the long-term trend remains positive [1] - The localization of automotive chips in China is progressing, with NEV makers moving towards higher computing power requirements for future smart driving needs [8] - Recent regulations from MIIT are impacting the promotion of autonomous driving technologies, leading to a shift in focus towards ADAS solutions [7]

Core Viewpoint - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is positioned for long-term growth in the AI chip market, potentially outperforming Nvidia in the coming decade [3][15]. Group 1: TSMC's Market Position - TSMC holds over 60% of the foundry market and serves major clients like Nvidia, AMD, and Qualcomm, making it a critical player in the semiconductor industry [9][5]. - The AI semiconductor market is projected to reach a size of $233 billion by 2034, indicating significant growth potential for TSMC [9]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, TSMC reported sales of $88.3 billion and earnings per share of $6.81, with expectations for continued rapid growth and healthy profitability [7]. - TSMC currently trades at a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 21, consistent with its 10-year average, suggesting it is a bargain compared to historical valuations [10][15]. Group 3: Valuation and Market Sentiment - Recent valuation compression is attributed to uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade policies, which may have led to an overestimation of short-term impacts on TSMC's business [12][13]. - The company's long-term growth prospects remain strong, as it benefits from overall chip demand and AI infrastructure spending, regardless of specific company performance [14][15].

Group 1: Investment Opportunity in TSMC - TSMC is the largest chip manufacturer in the world and plays a crucial role in the advancement of AI technology [6][7] - The company has a significant technological lead, being one of only three manufacturers capable of producing 3 nm chips, which are essential for AI applications [7][8] - TSMC's sales increased by 35% last quarter, with advanced 5 nm and 3 nm nodes accounting for 58% of total revenue, indicating strong demand for AI chips [9] Group 2: Financial Performance and Growth Outlook - TSMC is investing $38 billion to $42 billion in capital expenditures this year, a 34% increase from the previous year, to meet the growing demand for AI chips [11] - The company expects mid-20% revenue growth this year and over 20% average annual revenue growth over the next five years, while maintaining a gross margin above 53% [13] - TSMC shares are currently trading at less than 19 times the analysts' consensus estimate for 2025 earnings, making it an attractive investment compared to the S&P 500's aggregate P/E ratio [12] Group 3: Market Position and Competitive Advantage - TSMC has built a substantial moat that makes it difficult for competitors to gain market share, attracting major clients like Nvidia and Apple [10] - The company is planning to spend $100 billion over the next few years to expand manufacturing capacity in the United States, further solidifying its market position [11] - If included in the S&P 500, TSMC would account for approximately 1.8% of the index, highlighting its significant market capitalization [16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment position of Parkev Tatevosian, CFA, and highlights the involvement of The Motley Fool in recommending Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing [1] Group 1 - Parkev Tatevosian has no position in any of the stocks mentioned [1] - The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing [1] - Parkev Tatevosian is an affiliate of The Motley Fool and may receive compensation for promoting its services [1]