Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing TodayTSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing$245.19 +7.63 (+3.21%) 52-Week Range$133.57▼$248.59Dividend Yield1.01%P/E Ratio31.52Price Target$236.25Add to WatchlistThere have been a few times in the stock market when investors received a clear signal, as they do right now, with a focus on the technology sector amid a race for artificial intelligence dominance and a broader market share for the United States. As trade tariffs begin to create more uncertainty and rivalry with ...

Core Viewpoint - The individual investor adopts a contrarian investment style, focusing on deep value opportunities, particularly in stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events, while also considering insider buying as a positive signal [1] Investment Strategy - The investment portfolio is split approximately 50%-50% between shares and call options, indicating a balanced approach to risk and potential returns [1] - The investor's timeframe for holding positions typically ranges from 3 to 24 months, suggesting a medium-term investment horizon [1] - Fundamental analysis is employed to assess the health of companies, including their leverage and financial ratios compared to sector and industry averages [1] - Technical analysis is utilized to optimize entry and exit points, with a focus on support and resistance levels on weekly charts [1] Stock Selection Criteria - The investor screens for stocks that have undergone recent sell-offs, particularly when there is insider buying at the new lower price, indicating potential recovery [1] - Professional background checks are conducted on insiders who purchase shares post-sell-off, adding an additional layer of due diligence [1] Market Focus - The primary focus is on stocks in the US market, although there is openness to owning shares in less stable economies, referred to as "banana republics" [1] - The investor's approach is characterized by a willingness to engage in high-risk, illiquid options, highlighting a unique investment philosophy [1]

ROMAINE: DON'T WORRY, BLOOMBERG "OPEN INTEREST" STARTS RIGHT NOW. SONALI: COMING UP, RETAIL SALES SIZZLE AS AMERICANS KEEP SPENDING. AND NETFLIX IS GOING TO TAKE THE EARNINGS SPOTLIGHT AFTER THE BELL. A LOT RIDING ON THE COMPANY'S OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTHS AHEAD. AND A MULTIBILLION-DOLLAR DEAL. RUBBER IS TEAMING UP WITH LUCID TO LAUNCH A ROBOTAXI FLEET. FIRST WE HAVE SOME STOCKS TO WATCH BEFORE THE MARKET OPENS. ROMAINE: KEEP AN EYE ON THE CHIP STOCKS. TSMC RAISING ITS OUTLOOK AND THAT IS BOOSTING TECH STOCKS ...

Core Insights - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is experiencing strong interest from its leading U.S. customers and is accelerating its volume production schedule by several quarters [1][2] - TSMC has committed to investing a total of $165 billion in advanced semiconductor manufacturing in the U.S. [2] - The company reported $31.7 billion in revenue for the period, with a nearly 61% year-over-year increase in profit, setting a record high and surpassing estimates [3] Company Developments - TSMC's CEO, C.C. Wei, emphasized the company's critical role in supporting customer success and maintaining partnerships within the U.S. semiconductor industry [2] - The company has not observed any changes in customer behavior for the second half of 2025, despite potential uncertainties related to tariff policies [4] Market Context - U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened a 32% reciprocal tariff on Taiwan, which could impact the semiconductor sector, although trade talks are ongoing [3] - There are concerns regarding the potential impact of tariff policies on consumer-related and price-sensitive market segments [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong expectation for future growth [4]. Core Insights - The company reported Q2 2025 revenue of $30.07 billion, a year-on-year increase of 44.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.8%. The gross margin was 58.6%, up 5.4 percentage points year-on-year but down 0.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. Net profit reached $12.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 60.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.2% [2]. - The company has raised its full-year revenue growth guidance to approximately 30%, driven primarily by demand for advanced processes. In Q2 2025, revenue from N3, N5, and N7 processes accounted for 24%, 36%, and 14% of total wafer revenue, respectively, totaling 74% [3]. - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the growing demand for AI chips, with projections for net profits of $49.686 billion, $60.379 billion, and $66.768 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of $30.07 billion, with a gross margin of 58.6% and net profit of $12.8 billion [2]. Operational Analysis - The decline in gross margin is attributed to the appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar (TWD), which impacts revenue when converted from USD. A 1% appreciation in TWD results in a 1% revenue loss and a 40 basis points loss in gross margin. In Q2 2025, TWD appreciated by 4.4%, leading to a 180 basis points decline in gross margin, with further expected appreciation causing an additional 260 basis points loss [3]. - The company anticipates the first-generation N2 process to enter mass production in H2 2025, with subsequent processes expected in 2026 and 2028 [3]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The company is positioned as a leader in the wafer foundry industry, with a competitive edge in advanced processes, expected to benefit from the rise in AI chip demand. The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are $49.686 billion, $60.379 billion, and $66.768 billion, respectively [4].

Market Trends - Stock futures showed mixed performance early Thursday as investors tracked Federal Reserve developments [1] - Corporate earnings from United Airlines, TSMC, and Netflix are being monitored [1]

Group 1 - The focus of Cash Flow Club is on businesses with strong cash generation, ideally with a wide moat and significant durability, which can lead to high rewards when bought at the right time [1] - The community offers access to a leader's personal income portfolio targeting yields of 6% or more, along with features like community chat and a "Best Opportunities" List [1] - Coverage includes sectors such as energy midstream, commercial mREITs, BDCs, and shipping [1] Group 2 - Jonathan Weber has been active in the stock market and as a freelance analyst for many years, sharing research on Seeking Alpha since 2014 [2] - His primary focus is on value and income stocks, with occasional coverage of growth stocks [2]

Core Insights - Nvidia has achieved a market capitalization of $4.224 trillion, surpassing the combined valuations of Apple and Tesla, which total $4.17 trillion [1][2] - Nvidia's stock price is currently $173.22, reflecting a 1.08% increase on the day and over 20% growth in the last 30 days, driven by strong investor demand for AI infrastructure [3][4] - Nvidia remains the most valuable company globally, ahead of Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon, despite facing antitrust scrutiny and competition from AMD and Intel [5] Company Performance - Nvidia's market cap of $4.224 trillion positions it as a leader in the tech sector, significantly ahead of Microsoft at $3.787 trillion and Apple at $3.14 trillion [2][5] - The company's stock has seen a substantial rally, attributed to the increasing importance of AI technologies in enterprise and government strategies [3][4] - Analysts are optimistic about Nvidia's future, with expectations that it could reach a $5 trillion market cap as demand for GPU capacity from major cloud providers grows [6] Market Context - The surge in Nvidia's valuation comes at a time when Tesla is facing challenges in regaining momentum due to concerns over electric vehicle demand, and Apple's growth has stagnated as iPhone sales plateau [4] - Nvidia's dominance in GPU computing is becoming central to global technology, particularly as large language models and AI datacenters gain traction [3][6] - The competitive landscape includes threats from custom chip designs and established players like AMD and Intel, but Nvidia's position remains strong [5]

Why don't we start off with yesterday. Uh, you know, there was reports from a White House source that the president was very close to firing J. Pal.The president then spoke during a news conference saying that's highly unlikely. Um, just that drama and we saw the action in the bond market, the equity market and with the dollar. Does that drama change the view of US markets right now.Look, it it it matters. Um, but uh I'm not sure the thing that matters most. um when you're looking at what's really driving m ...

Core Insights - TSMC reported a 60.7% increase in net profit for Q2, reaching NT$398.3 billion (US$13.5 billion), surpassing analyst expectations [2][3] - The company's revenue for the second quarter rose by 39% year-on-year, also exceeding forecasts [2][3] - TSMC's chairman indicated that demand for chips, particularly for generative AI, is expected to remain robust, leading to an upgraded revenue forecast for the year [3] Financial Performance - TSMC's net profit for the three months ending in June was NT$398.3 billion (US$13.5 billion), a 60.7% increase from the previous year [2] - The second-quarter revenue increased by 39% compared to the same period last year, outperforming expectations [2] Market Dynamics - The demand for chips is driven by the growth of generative AI, which has significantly impacted the global economy [3] - TSMC's positive outlook is supported by Nvidia's decision to resume sales of H20 AI chips to China, following the easing of licensing restrictions by the U.S. [3][4] Strategic Positioning - TSMC is the largest contract chipmaker globally, with major clients including Nvidia and Apple [5] - The company is navigating potential challenges from U.S. tariffs but remains optimistic about its business performance [6]