Core Viewpoint - Workday's stock performance has shown resilience, with a recent increase and positive projections for upcoming financial results, indicating potential growth opportunities in the human resources software sector [1][2]. Company Performance - Workday's stock closed at $243.39, reflecting a +1.49% change from the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.58% [1]. - Over the past month, Workday shares have appreciated by 2.69%, surpassing the Computer and Technology sector's gain of 0.6% and the S&P 500's loss of 0.84% [1]. Financial Projections - The upcoming EPS for Workday is projected at $1.99, representing a 14.37% increase year-over-year [2]. - Revenue is expected to reach $2.22 billion, marking an 11.34% increase from the same quarter last year [2]. - For the full year, analysts anticipate earnings of $8.41 per share and revenue of $9.48 billion, reflecting changes of +15.21% and +12.21% respectively from the previous year [3]. Analyst Estimates - Changes in analyst estimates for Workday are crucial as they reflect short-term business trends and analysts' confidence in the company's performance [4]. - The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has decreased by 1% in the past month, and Workday currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [6]. Valuation Metrics - Workday has a Forward P/E ratio of 28.51, which is higher than the industry average of 25.98 [6]. - The PEG ratio for Workday stands at 1.46, indicating a favorable growth outlook compared to the Internet - Software industry average PEG ratio of 2.2 [7]. Industry Context - The Internet - Software industry, part of the Computer and Technology sector, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 143, placing it in the bottom 43% of over 250 industries [8].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported Q1 2025 adjusted EPS of $1.57 and adjusted EBITDA of $102 million, which fell below guidance due to higher than expected benefits costs [5][6] - The average number of paid worksite employees increased by 0.7% year-over-year to 306,023, but growth was slightly below guidance due to delays and cancellations in new client starts [5][6] - Gross profit per worksite employee decreased to $338 per month from $378 in Q1 2024, attributed to an 8.4% increase in benefits costs per covered employee [6][9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Client retention improved to 91% in Q1 2025 from 88% in Q1 2024, indicating strong client loyalty despite market challenges [20] - Client net hiring was slightly positive but significantly weaker compared to historical norms [6][20] - The company experienced a 3% increase in worksite employees paid from new client sales compared to Q1 2024, despite overall hiring challenges [5][6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - A client survey indicated that 66% of respondents expect the economic climate to negatively affect their business, up from 29% in January [16] - The percentage of clients expecting to add employees in the coming quarter decreased to 34% from 43% [16] - The Northeast region showed better results compared to other areas, but overall trends were consistent across the nation [70] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on mitigating benefits cost challenges through pricing adjustments and plan design changes, with a forecasted benefits cost per covered employee range of 6.5% to 7.5% for the full year [10][35] - The strategic partnership with Workday is a key focus, with a go-to-market plan established to target mid-market businesses, which is expected to significantly drive growth starting in 2026 [30][31] - The company aims to leverage the Workday partnership to enhance service offerings and client engagement, particularly for businesses with 150 to 5,000 employees [88] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed disappointment over the unexpected rise in benefits costs but remains optimistic about future profitability improvements in 2026 [10][64] - The company anticipates a modest improvement in worksite employee growth throughout the year, barring significant changes in the macroeconomic environment [36] - Management noted that the current period of uncertainty is less likely to be a temporary spike, suggesting a more cautious approach to forecasting [86] Other Important Information - Operating expenses were managed slightly below budget, with a 2% increase year-over-year, primarily due to investments in the Workday partnership [11][12] - The company returned $23 million in cash dividends and repurchased 224,000 shares at a cost of $19 million in Q1 [12] - The effective tax rate for the quarter was 29%, consistent with the previous year [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the onboarding pauses mentioned in Q1? - Management noted a dramatic reversal in small business optimism due to government actions, leading to delays and cancellations in onboarding new clients [40][41] Question: What is the expected cadence of spending for the Workday partnership? - The company anticipates stable spending throughout the year, with costs expected to decrease in subsequent years as the project matures [45][48] Question: What actions from Washington could improve customer sentiment? - Management believes that stabilizing the tax system and regulatory environment could significantly boost confidence among clients [53][54] Question: How quickly can pricing adjustments be made in response to healthcare costs? - Pricing changes are already being implemented, with expectations for improved margins as the year progresses [63][64] Question: Are there regional or industry differences in healthcare costs and hiring hesitancy? - The company has observed better results in the Northeast, but overall trends are consistent across the nation [70] Question: What is the expected profitability from the Workday partnership? - Management anticipates higher upfront pricing and ongoing revenue contributions from the new joint solution, though specific figures are still being analyzed [78][79]

Financial Performance - Q1 2025 average paid worksite employees increased by 1%[8] - Worksite employees paid from new client sales increased 3% compared to Q1 2024[8] - Total client attrition for Q1 2025 improved to 9% compared to 12% in Q1 2024[8] - Q1 2025 Adjusted EBITDA declined 28% year-over-year[11] - Q1 2025 Adjusted EPS declined 31% year-over-year[11] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - Adjusted Cash was $124 million as of March 31, 2025[13] - Total Debt remained at $369 million as of March 31, 2025[13] - Adjusted EBITDA was $102 million for the year-to-date period ended March 31, 2025[13] Outlook - Q2 2025 average WSEEs paid are expected to be between 308,000 and 311,000, representing a year-over-year increase between 03% and 13%[15] - FY 2025 average WSEEs paid are expected to be between 308,800 and 316,400, representing a year-over-year increase between 05% and 30%[15] - FY 2025 Adjusted EBITDA is projected to be between $190 million and $245 million, a year-over-year decrease between 30% and 9%[15] - FY 2025 Adjusted EPS is projected to be between $223 and $328, a year-over-year decrease between 38% and 8%[15]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported first quarter adjusted EPS of $1.57 and adjusted EBITDA of $102 million, which fell below guidance due to higher than expected benefits costs [5][6] - The average number of paid worksite employees increased by 0.7% year-over-year to 306,023, but growth was slightly below guidance due to delays and cancellations in new client starts [5][6] - Gross profit per worksite employee decreased to $338 per month from $378 in the prior year, attributed to an 8.4% increase in benefits costs per covered employee [6][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Client retention improved to 91% in Q1, a significant increase from 88% in the previous year, indicating strong client loyalty [18] - Client net hiring was slightly positive but remained weak compared to historical norms [6][33] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - A client survey indicated that 66% of respondents expect the economic climate to negatively affect their business, up from 29% in January [15] - The percentage of clients expecting to add employees decreased to 34% from 43% [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on mitigating the impact of rising benefits costs through pricing adjustments and plan design changes, with a forecasted benefits cost per covered employee of 6.5% to 7.5% for the full year [9][34] - The strategic partnership with Workday is seen as a significant growth driver, with plans to launch a joint solution targeting mid-market businesses [25][29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed disappointment over the unexpected rise in benefits costs but remains optimistic about future profitability improvements as pricing adjustments are implemented [10][36] - The company has reduced its worksite employee growth forecast for the year to 0.5% to 3% due to macroeconomic uncertainties [33][34] Other Important Information - Operating expenses increased slightly by 2% year-over-year, primarily due to investments in the Workday partnership [10][11] - The company returned $23 million in cash dividends and repurchased 224,000 shares at a cost of $19 million during the quarter [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the onboarding pauses mentioned? - Management noted that optimism in the small business community reversed dramatically due to government actions, leading to delays and cancellations in onboarding new clients [40][41] Question: What is the expected cadence of spending for the Workday partnership? - The company anticipates stable spending throughout the year, with a gradual decrease in costs expected in years three to five of the partnership [45][48] Question: What actions from Washington could improve customer confidence? - Management believes that minor changes in tax policy or regulatory environments could significantly boost confidence among clients [54] Question: How quickly can pricing adjustments be made in response to healthcare costs? - Pricing changes are already being implemented, with expectations for improvements in gross margins as the year progresses [63][64] Question: Are there regional differences in healthcare costs or hiring hesitancy? - The company has seen better results in the Northeast, but overall trends appear to be consistent across the nation [70]

Core Insights - Tech companies are increasingly investing in cloud software vendors, showcasing a trend of collaboration among them [1] - Veza has successfully raised $108 million in a financing round, with a valuation exceeding $800 million [2] - Snowflake has utilized Veza's software for access management, highlighting the importance of controlling data access to mitigate security risks [3] Group 1: Investment Trends - Major tech firms like Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia are making significant investments in AI startups, while cloud software vendors are also becoming aggressive in corporate investing [1] - The collaboration among software vendors, as seen in Veza's funding round, indicates a strategic shift towards collective investment efforts [1] Group 2: Veza's Business Model - Veza's software assists companies in managing employee access to various internal technologies, which is crucial for maintaining security [2][3] - The company has integrated with over 250 technologies, enhancing its value proposition in the market [4] Group 3: Security and Access Management - Snowflake's use of Veza emphasizes the need for effective access management to prevent over-provisioning, which can lead to increased security risks [3] - The ability to manage permissions for new hires and departures is a key feature of Veza's software, allowing for better control over corporate data access [3]

Group 1: Software Stocks Overview - Analysts are increasing targets for leading software stocks, indicating significant gains for companies like Snowflake, Okta, CrowdStrike, Workday, and Zscaler [1] - The overall sentiment is firming, with rising price targets providing a strong tailwind for these markets [1] Group 2: Snowflake - Snowflake is the most upgraded stock in March, receiving 21 updates from 39 analysts, raising the consensus price target to $205, representing a 30% gain from late-March levels [2][3] - The company's strong performance is attributed to top and bottom-line outperformance, sustained double-digit growth, and better-than-expected guidance [2] - New products and capabilities, including a deal with Microsoft to deploy OpenAI models, are driving results [3] Group 3: Okta - Okta is the second most upgraded stock in March, with 20 revisions lifting the price target to $115, nearly a 10% increase since the CQ4 2024 earnings report [7][8] - Analysts suggest a potential rise of 20% for Okta, supported by AI's dual tailwind, enhancing capabilities and driving demand [8] Group 4: CrowdStrike - CrowdStrike's Q4 performance was overshadowed by less-than-expected guidance, but analysts view the guidance as conservative, expecting sustained high double-digit growth [9][10] - Client growth and high-module adoption rates among large clients provide business leverage, leading analysts to reset expectations [11] Group 5: Workday - Workday's Q4 results show top and bottom-line strength, leading to a rising price target with a consensus indicating a 20% upside [12][13] - Analysts noted improving business trends and a clearer path to achieving a 30% margin, with a consensus rating of Moderate Buy from 31 analysts [13] Group 6: Zscaler - Zscaler received 10 updates from 32 analysts, with a consensus price target forecasting a 15% upside, and improvements in guidance noted as above-consensus [16][17] - The company is recognized for its healthy results and signs of diversification and upsell capability [17]

文 ｜ 陈俊云 近期市场对美国经济"滞胀"叙事的交易导致美股软件板块跟随市场出现大幅回调，但3 8家主流美 股软件公司2 0 2 4Q4财报显示，经历了过去三年的需求泡沫出清之后，欧美企业客户软件需求整体 趋于稳定，或呈现缓慢复苏迹象，部分软件企业2 0 2 5Q1和2 0 2 5全年偏保守的业绩指引亦和板块既 往的习惯相符，但近期特朗普政府系列政策对宏观的影响和预期扰动令市场明显担忧，需要谨慎关 注。投资节奏上，短期市场恢复趋势性的上行仍需要宏观不确定性的消除，AI在企业市场的商业 化部署，叠加企业云计算需求的持续向上料将使得基础软件板块在2 0 2 5H1显著受益，同时伴随宏 观预期的企稳，以及AI商业化收益的逐步体现，我们认为应用软件业绩有望在2 0 2 5H2显著改善。 ▍ 报告缘起： 参考软件板块2 0 2 4年四季报整体的业绩&指引，以及各公司对于下游需求环境的表述，我们判断 欧美企业IT支出短期仍将呈现稳步复苏态势。但近期特朗普政府在关税政策、政府部门裁员&预 算削减等层面的系列举措正在对美国宏观经济增长、通胀预期等构成持续的噪音和扰动，同时部 分软件企业较为保守的业绩指引等亦在一定程度上加剧了 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Kingdee International (268 HK) with a target price of HK$14.94, indicating a potential downside of 1% from the current price of HK$15.14 [1][8]. Core Views - The report highlights that Kingdee's stock price has increased by 94% year-to-date, outperforming the Hang Seng Index, which rose by 23%. However, the company's fundamental recovery is lagging behind this valuation increase [6]. - For the second half of 2024, Kingdee's revenue grew by 9% year-on-year to RMB 3.39 billion, which was below market expectations. The annual recurring revenue (ARR) increased by 20% to RMB 3.43 billion, also falling short of expectations [6][10]. - The report notes that Kingdee's cloud service revenue grew by 10% year-on-year to RMB 2.72 billion, again below market consensus [6][10]. - The management expects ARR to grow by approximately 20% in 2025, with revenue growth anticipated to accelerate to 14% year-on-year [6][10]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating and Price Target - The target price has been raised from HK$6.38 to HK$14.94, reflecting a significant increase of 134% [2][12]. - The current valuation is aligned with global peers, with a projected P/S ratio of 7.0, up from 2.8 [8][12]. Financial Performance - For 2025, the expected revenue is RMB 7.15 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 14% [9][10]. - The report projects a net profit of RMB 176 million for 2025, with an EPS of RMB 0.05 [9][10]. - The operating profit is expected to reach RMB 75 million in 2025, indicating a return to profitability [9][10]. Adjustments and Forecasts - Due to underperformance in the second half of 2024, revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards by 3% and 5%, respectively [7][10]. - The ARR forecast for 2025 has been revised to a growth of 22%, down from previous estimates [7][10]. Market Comparison - Kingdee's market capitalization is approximately US$6.99 billion, with a three-month average daily trading volume of US$89 million [1][12]. - The report compares Kingdee's performance with global peers like SAP and Workday, noting that Kingdee's revenue growth and AI monetization capabilities are still developing [8][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Kingdee International (268 HK) with a target price of HK$14.94, indicating a potential downside of 1% from the current price of HK$15.14 [1][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Kingdee's stock has appreciated by 94% year-to-date, outperforming the Hang Seng Index, which rose by 23%. However, the company's fundamental recovery is lagging behind this valuation increase [6]. - For the second half of 2024, Kingdee's revenue grew by 9% year-on-year to RMB 3.39 billion, which was below market expectations. The annual recurring revenue (ARR) increased by 20% to RMB 3.43 billion, also falling short of projections [6][10]. - The report notes that Kingdee's cloud service revenue grew by 10% to RMB 2.72 billion, again underperforming against market expectations [6][10]. - The management anticipates a revenue growth acceleration in 2025, projecting a 14% increase compared to the 9% growth in the second half of 2024, supported by a low base and macroeconomic recovery [6][10]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating and Price Target - The target price has been raised from HK$6.38 to HK$14.94, reflecting a significant increase of 134% [2][12]. - The report adjusts the target price-to-sales (P/S) ratio to 7.0, aligning it with global peers in the ERP sector [12][13]. Financial Performance - Kingdee's revenue for 2025 is projected at RMB 7.15 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 14% [9][10]. - The report anticipates that Kingdee will achieve a breakeven point in operating profit and net profit in 2025, despite downward adjustments in earnings forecasts due to underperformance in 2H24 [6][10]. Earnings Forecast Adjustments - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been revised downwards to RMB 0.05 and RMB 0.11, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 61% and 36% from previous estimates [2][10]. - The ARR for 2025 is expected to grow by 22%, while the growth rate is projected to slow to 20% in 2026 [7][10]. Market Comparisons - Kingdee's market capitalization stands at approximately US$6.99 billion, with a three-month average daily trading volume of US$89 million [1][12]. - The report compares Kingdee's performance with global peers, noting that its current valuation is in line with similar companies that have larger customer bases and stronger profitability [8][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Dmall Inc, with a target price raised to HK$16.00 from the previous HK$8.50, indicating a potential upside of 22.5% from the current price of HK$13.06 [1][3]. Core Insights - Dmall achieved full-year breakeven in FY24, with total revenue increasing by 17% YoY to RMB1.86 billion and an adjusted net profit of RMB29.8 million, a significant turnaround from an adjusted net loss of RMB277 million in FY23 [1][2]. - The company is focusing on AI retail to drive long-term growth, having launched several AI agent products that are expected to contribute to revenue in the long term [1][6]. - For FY25E, management anticipates total revenue growth of 15-20% YoY, with further margin expansion expected [1]. Financial Performance - FY24 revenue was RMB1.86 billion, up 17.3% YoY, with adjusted net profit of RMB29.8 million compared to a loss of RMB233 million in FY23 [2][10]. - Revenue from the retail core service cloud solution grew by 39% YoY to RMB1.81 billion, with AIoT solutions revenue increasing by 65% YoY to RMB1.02 billion [6][10]. - Gross profit margin improved from 35.0% in FY23 to 40.1% in FY24, and adjusted net margin rose from -14.7% to 1.6% [6][10]. Revenue Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for FY25E and FY26E have been revised downwards due to a slower customer acquisition pace, with FY25E revenue now expected at RMB2.19 billion, a decrease of 14.6% from previous estimates [7][10]. - The adjusted net profit for FY25E is projected to be RMB134 million, reflecting a growth of 351% YoY [2][10]. Valuation Metrics - The target price of HK$16.00 is based on a valuation multiple of 6.0x FY25E EV/sales, which aligns with the average EV/sales of global SaaS peers [3][8]. - The report highlights a significant improvement in operating profit, projecting RMB121 million for FY25E, compared to a loss in previous years [7][10].