stocks on the move as well as some calls. We're going to start with Zoom. We talked about it yesterday, Josh, with you heading into the print.They did post a stronger than expected earnings. They uh beat upbeat guide as well. Take a look at that.You made a nice uh you made a nice call on that yesterday. They also increased the buyback. What do you think now.>> I mean, you can't sell it. um they just delivered everything that people have been waiting for four years to see this company deliver this entire pos ...

Company Performance - Zoom reported stronger than expected earnings, beating guidance and increasing its buyback program, indicating positive momentum post-pandemic [1][2] - Third quarter total revenue for Zoom increased by 4.5% year-over-year, with GAAP operating margins at 25% and non-GAAP margins at 41% [2] - Cash flows for Zoom rose by 30% year-over-year, and the number of enterprise customers spending over $100,000 increased by 9% [3] Industry Trends - Applied Materials received a target price increase from UBS, reflecting a surge in memory demand and pricing, with expectations of a 20% increase in wafer fab equipment demand by 2026 [4][5] - Snowflake's target price was raised to 280 from 270, with anticipated product revenue growth of over 25% and operating margins expected to exceed previous estimates [6][7] - Live Nation is positioned as a key player in the entertainment sector, benefiting from a strong lineup of upcoming concerts, reinforcing its status as a valuable asset [8] Consumer Goods - Monster Beverage is noted for its ability to achieve double-digit revenue growth, outperforming typical growth rates in the consumer staples sector, with a 41% increase year-to-date [9][10] - Coca-Cola is also performing well, but Monster's diversification and international expansion are highlighted as significant strengths [9]

Core Viewpoint - Snowflake Inc. is positioned as a strong investment opportunity in the AI sector, with positive indicators for continued growth and product adoption, despite competitive pressures from Databricks [1][2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Projections - Oppenheimer maintains an "Outperform" rating on Snowflake with a price target of $295, citing encouraging third-quarter checks and resilient AI/ML momentum [1]. - The firm anticipates revenue growth for Snowflake could approach 29-30%, potentially exceeding the consensus estimate of 25.6%, despite a challenging comparison from the previous quarter [3]. - Snowflake is expected to sustain a Net Revenue Retention (NRR) rate of 125%, indicating strong demand for its products and healthy consumption trends [3]. Group 2: Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Snowflake is experiencing broad-based consumption across various regions and verticals, which signals a strong quarter ahead [2]. - The company is seeing continued momentum for new tools such as Snowpark and Cortex, contributing to its positive outlook [3]. - Street expectations for product growth in the third quarter are modeled in line with guidance, suggesting beatable targets that could keep investors engaged [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the distinction between investing and gambling, highlighting the importance of long-term wealth creation and caution against speculative investments in the current market environment [3][5]. Investment Opportunities - The article discusses two closed-end funds (CEFs): Destiny Tech100 (DXYZ) and BlackRock Technology and Private Equity Term Trust (BTX) [6][10]. - DXYZ is identified as a risky investment, down 63% year-to-date, trading at a 96% premium to net asset value (NAV), and lacking a dividend [6][9]. - BTX, on the other hand, offers a 9.9% dividend yield and is considered a prudent long-term investment, currently trading at a 14.9% discount to NAV [10][13]. Fund Performance - DXYZ had a premium of over 500% to NAV earlier in the year, indicating overvaluation, while the average CEF trades at a 5.3% discount [7]. - BTX has shown a reliable performance, matching the S&P 500 since May, despite a recent decline in its dividend due to management changes [14][16]. Market Sentiment - The article notes that the current market environment is characterized by a focus on short-term tech selloffs, which has led to wider discounts for funds like BTX, suggesting a lack of speculative interest [15][16]. - The widening discount for BTX is viewed positively, as it indicates that the fund is not attracting short-term speculators [15].

Group 1 - Nvidia is investing $1 billion in Nokia to integrate it into its AI ecosystem, highlighting the strategic importance of AI in future telecommunications [5] - Alibaba's Qianwen app has seen a surge in downloads, leading to a rally in AI application stocks, with expectations of continued commercialization in the AI sector benefiting data centers and computing equipment [6] - Databricks is becoming a key player in the private market for AI, with a rumored valuation of $130 billion, significantly higher than Snowflake's previous valuation [7] Group 2 - HSBC predicts that OpenAI may require up to $207 billion in new funding by 2030 due to increased cloud computing and power needs [9] - Amazon plans to invest up to $50 billion to expand its AI and supercomputing infrastructure for U.S. government agencies, adding approximately 1.3 GW of computing power by 2026 [11] - Apple is reducing its sales team to streamline processes for providing products to schools, businesses, and government agencies, indicating a restructuring effort [12] Group 3 - Amazon is set to showcase its AI advancements at the re:Invent 2025 conference, including details on the new Trainium3 AI accelerator, which reportedly has double the computing power of its predecessor [13]

Core Viewpoint - Snowflake Inc. is positioned as a strong investment opportunity in the cloud sector, with positive analyst ratings and expectations for solid revenue growth in the upcoming fiscal quarter [1][2][3]. Group 1: Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Derrick Wood from TD Cowen has reiterated a Buy rating for Snowflake Inc. with a price target of $275 [1]. - Raimo Lenschow from Barclays also maintained a Buy rating, increasing the price target from $255 to $290 [1]. Group 2: Revenue Expectations - Management anticipates fiscal Q3 2026 product revenue to be between $1.125 billion and $1.130 billion, indicating a year-over-year growth of 25% to 26% [2]. - The expected non-GAAP operating income margin is around 9% [2]. Group 3: Future Growth Drivers - Analyst Wood expects Snowflake to exceed growth targets, although performance may not match the exceptional results of previous quarters [3]. - Future growth is anticipated to be driven by the Cloud Data Warehouse (CDW) and Data Engineering segments, which are experiencing strong demand [3]. Group 4: Company Overview - Snowflake Inc. specializes in a cloud-based platform that offers data cloud and artificial intelligence solutions, utilizing a cloud-native architecture with three integrated layers: compute, storage, and cloud services [4].

Group 1 - The article highlights the importance of focusing on companies with consistent revenue gains in a challenging macroeconomic environment, particularly those with strong analyst support and solid fundamentals [3][4] - Pinterest Inc. has seen a resurgence in its user base, reaching 600 million monthly active users, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of record highs, driven largely by engagement from Gen Z users [4][5] - In the third quarter, Pinterest's revenue increased by 17% year-over-year, surpassing $1 billion, with management forecasting revenue to exceed $1.3 billion in the next quarter [5] Group 2 - Despite its growth, Pinterest faces challenges such as adapting to AI advancements and a significant decline in ad pricing, which fell nearly 25% year-over-year, although impressions increased [6][7] - The article notes that companies like Pinterest, Spotify, and Snowflake have reported substantial revenue gains and high customer engagement rates, even as consumers face inflation and economic concerns [6]

Core Insights - LSEG has launched "LSEG Lipper on Snowflake" service to meet the growing demand for fund information among asset management firms, investment advisors, and individual investors [1] - The service provides comprehensive global data coverage, including over 350,000 collective investment products across 80 registered sales markets [1] - LSEG Lipper has over 50 years of experience and is trusted by global investment professionals for its expertise and market insights [2] Comprehensive Coverage - The service covers a wide range of investment products, including mutual funds, closed-end funds, exchange-traded funds, hedge funds, domestic retirement funds, pension funds, and insurance products [1] - It offers access to a historical database of over 500,000 securities, including merged or liquidated funds [2] Customizable Solutions - LSEG provides highly customizable and flexible services that support all major cloud service providers and their regional deployment combinations [2] - The platform integrates ESG and climate metrics into client solutions, making it a reliable source for complex fixed-income analysis [12] AI-Driven Analysis Solutions - The company offers a range of AI-driven analytical tools and models supported by a robust open and scalable infrastructure [8] - These tools help automate complex analysis tasks and provide actionable insights, enhancing competitive advantages for clients [8] Client Interaction and Solutions - LSEG maintains strong relationships with major financial institutions, providing solutions for buy-side and sell-side clients across various functions [16] - The solutions are designed to improve portfolio performance and capture excess returns through automation [17] Risk Management - The company’s data and models assist in identifying interest rate and credit risks at both corporate and portfolio levels, which is crucial for achieving robust financial performance [20]

Core Insights - Fal has transformed "real-time video generation" from a flashy demo into a reusable infrastructure, achieving an annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth from approximately $2 million to over $100 million in less than two years, serving over 2 million developers and more than 300 enterprises, including Adobe and Canva [1][3][4] Company Overview - Founded in 2021 and headquartered in San Francisco, Fal is a generative media platform aimed at developers, hosting image, video, and audio models through a high-speed inference engine and unified API [4] - The company has raised multiple rounds of funding, with the latest round in October 2025 amounting to $250 million, leading to a valuation exceeding $4 billion [4] Transition from Data to AI - The initial focus was on data infrastructure, but the emergence of models like DALL-E 2 and ChatGPT prompted a shift towards inference, allowing users to utilize pre-trained models without extensive data preparation [6][9] - The decision to pivot was challenging, as the company had existing paying customers and two products running simultaneously, leading to confusion in communication [7][8] Product and Growth Strategy - Fal identified a significant market opportunity in generative media, particularly in video generation, which is seen as a new blue ocean market with rapid growth potential [11][17] - The company opted for an API-based approach to provide ease of use for developers, optimizing workflows while maintaining control over the code [13] - The focus on video generation has led to increased computational demands, necessitating further optimization of their systems [16] Commercialization and Sales - Fal has transitioned from a pay-as-you-go model to annual contracts to ensure revenue stability, with a focus on long-term commitments from enterprise clients [25][26] - The company actively promotes new model releases as marketing opportunities, aiming to be the first platform to support new models [24] Team and Culture - The company maintains a unique culture with no dedicated engineering managers, promoting a collaborative environment where all engineers contribute to coding [33] - Recruitment focuses on individuals with a passion for optimization and experience in database or system-level work, fostering a strong technical team [35][36]

Weekend Thoughts. 周末随想。 47/52. US flow colour, AI Platform stocks, EU Peace Deal basket, China's 15th FYP basket. 46/52。新兴市场的⼗年，亚洲五⼤主题。 47/52。美国资⾦流向⾊谱、⼈⼯智能平台股票、欧盟和平协议篮⼦、中国第⼗五个五年规划 篮⼦。 Past notes: 过去的笔记： • 46/52. EM decade, Asia's 5 themes. 44/52。最后两个⽉。 • 41/52. Bubble watch, Komeito surprise, $4900 Gold. 第 41/52 期。泡沫观察，公明党意外，4900 美元⻩⾦。 1/ This week in US. 1/ 本周美国情况。 Seeing significant HF covers in these macro products across our trading desks. Shorts across US-listed ETFs increased +4.6% on Friday – to put ...