公司研究 亚马逊（AMZN.O）：核心云业务重新加速 亚马逊（AMZN.O）：核心云业务重 公司对第四季度业绩展望乐观，预计净销售额将在 2060 亿至 2130 亿美 元之间，同比增长10%至 13%，区间中值略高于市场预期；营业利润预 计为 210 亿至 260 亿美元，同比变动区间为持平至增长 23%，区间中值 与市场预期基本相符。 亚马逊云服务（AWS）重新加速 本季度 AWS 营收达 330 亿美元，同比增长 20%，创下自 2022 年底以来 的最高增速，超出市场预期的18%。云服务营业利润同比增长9%至114 亿美元，同样超预期，并贡献了公司总营业利润的三分之二。 尽管 AWS 本季 20%的增速仍低于谷歌云的 34%和微软 Azure 的 39%， 但其增速重新加速的趋势已成为关键信号。今年以来，亚马逊股价表现 落后于谷歌和微软，市场曾担忧其在 AI 产品商业化方面进展滞后。此 次 AWS 增速回升有望缓解这一忧虑。 新加速 事件：亚马逊第三季度业绩超出市场预期，云服务（AWS）增速创 下三年来新高，有效缓解了此前市场关于其增速见顶的忧虑，并带 动盘后股价飙升逾 13%。虽然 AWS 在本季度 ...

智通财经APP获悉，美银近日发布研报，前瞻亚马逊公司(AMZN.US)第三季度财报，称零售板块有望表 现强劲，亚马逊云服务(AWS)前景更趋乐观。亚马逊将于10 月 30 日盘后发布财报。 第三季度业绩预览：零售业绩与前景展望预计表现稳健 该行预计亚马逊零售板块存在超预期空间，第三季度营收预计为 1792 亿美元，较市场预期的 1777 亿美 元高出 1%。亚马逊云服务(AWS)方面，该行预计其第三季度营收为 323 亿美元(同比增长 17.7%)，与市 场预期的 324 亿美元(同比增长 18.0%)基本持平。 美银认为，得益于健康的零售销售额、在线广告业务的强劲表现，以及 7 月亚马逊云服务的裁员举措， 亚马逊营业利润存在超预期的可能性：预计第三季度公认会计原则(GAAP)营业利润为 204 亿美元，较 市场预期的 197 亿美元高出 4%。 该行判断，市场预期如下：美国零售板块营收可能较市场预期高出 1%-2%;基于第三方(3P)数据，亚马 逊云服务同比增速或为 18%-18.5%;营业利润略高于亚马逊第三季度业绩指引区间的上限。 此外，谷歌(GOOGL.US)与微软(MSFT.US)将于亚马逊财报前一 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Amazon, but it highlights strong performance and growth potential in various segments, suggesting a positive outlook for the company. Core Insights - Amazon's Q2 FY25 revenue increased by 12% YoY to $167.7 billion, exceeding market expectations, with operating income rising by 31% to $19.2 billion [16][17] - The company achieved record sales during Prime Day, indicating robust consumer engagement and platform strength [17] - Concerns were raised regarding the impact of U.S. tariffs on e-commerce and a significant decline in AWS operating margin [16][19] Summary by Sections Retail Performance - North America 1P retail revenue reached $100.1 billion, growing 11% YoY, while international revenue was $36.8 billion, also up 11% YoY [17] - The restructuring of logistics improved efficiency, with package transportation distance down 12% and handling per unit reduced by 15% [17] - Everyday Essentials accounted for one-third of unit sales, driven by stable pricing and faster delivery [17] Advertising and Third-Party Ecosystem - Third-party seller product sales reached a record 62% of total sales, reflecting a healthy ecosystem [18] - Advertising revenue grew by 22% YoY to $15.7 billion, supported by partnerships with Disney and Roku [18] - Amazon Pharmacy saw a 50% increase YoY, indicating strong growth in the online prescription market [18] AWS Performance - AWS revenue was $30.9 billion, up 17.5% YoY, with an annualized run rate exceeding $123 billion [19] - Operating margin fell to 32.9%, down 670bps QoQ, primarily due to increased costs from stock-based compensation and depreciation [19] - AWS backlog reached $195 billion, up 25% YoY, indicating strong demand despite supply constraints [19] Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow - Capital expenditures in Q2 were $31.4 billion, with significant investments in AWS data centers and infrastructure [20] - Free cash flow declined to $18.2 billion, reflecting a decrease in cash return rates [21] - Guidance for Q3 revenue is set between $174 billion and $179.5 billion, with operating income expected to be between $15.5 billion and $20.5 billion [21]

Group 1 - Amazon Web Services (AWS) is set to announce an upgrade to its Graviton 4 chip, increasing network bandwidth to 600 Gbps, which AWS claims is the highest specification in the public cloud [2] - Graviton 4, designed by Amazon's Annapurna Labs, is part of its custom chip strategy aimed at competing with traditional semiconductor giants like Intel and AMD [2] - The real competition lies in the artificial intelligence infrastructure sector, where AWS is directly challenging Nvidia [2] Group 2 - AWS has invested $8 billion in Project Rainier, an AI supercomputer built for the startup Anthropic, which utilizes over 500,000 Trainium chips [3] - Although Nvidia's Blackwell chip outperforms Trainium 2, AWS claims its chips offer better cost-performance ratios [3] - AWS's supply capacity is strong, but demand for these chips currently exceeds supply, indicating a robust market interest [3] Group 3 - With the upcoming Graviton 4 upgrade and the Trainium chips used in Project Rainier, AWS aims to control the entire technology stack of AI infrastructure, from network architecture to training and inference [3] - The success of mainstream AI models like Claude 4 being trained on non-Nvidia chips raises the question of how much market share AWS can capture from Nvidia [3] - The release schedule for the Graviton 4 upgrade will be announced by the end of June [4]

Core Viewpoint - Despite the ongoing AI boom, AI stocks have faced significant declines in 2025 due to tariff threats and economic recession concerns, leading to questions about the sustainability of massive AI investments by tech companies [1][2]. Group 1: AI Market Dynamics - The AI revolution appears resilient even amid market turmoil, with CEOs from major companies confirming strong demand for AI [3]. - Alphabet plans to invest $75 billion in AI data centers this year, with positive returns already being reported [4]. - Amazon's CEO emphasized that generative AI will transform customer experiences and noted triple-digit growth rates in AI revenues [6]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The introduction of China's low-cost AI model, DeepSeek R1, has added pressure on AI stocks, particularly Nvidia [5]. - Amazon and Google are actively working to reduce AI costs, with Amazon's Trainium2 chip offering 30%-40% better price performance compared to Nvidia's offerings [12]. - Google's new Ironwood chip is designed for high performance, capable of handling six times the memory of previous generations and achieving peak inference throughput of 4,614 teraflops [14]. Group 3: Nvidia's Position - Nvidia has a significant market lead in AI chips, but its high gross margins (75%) may be challenged as competitors like Amazon and Google develop their own chips [15]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with both Amazon and Google aiming to lower AI costs and reduce reliance on Nvidia [16].