Let's ask Truis wealth CIO Keith Lerner and Empower chief investment strategist Marta Norton who joins us here at Post9. Good to see both of you. Thanks for coming in.Yes, my pleasure. What do you make of I guess tech lagging, a little more volatility, this comment from the Fed chair. You don't get that every day about valuations in equities, right.And you know, I think it really is a sign of how extreme valuations are. We all know that valuations aren't a timing indicator. markets can grind on for quite so ...

Core Insights - Ascensus has appointed Josh Rundle from Transamerica to enhance connections between wealth and asset managers and its 16 million account holders, managing approximately $862 billion in assets [1][5] Group 1: Company Strategy - The new role aims to facilitate new capabilities and programs related to financial advice and wealth management, particularly in workplace retirement plans [2] - Ascensus intends to remove obstacles in accessing workplace financial advice, thereby adding more value to the savers it serves [4] Group 2: Market Position - Ascensus, majority-owned by Stone Point Capital and GIC, competes with major players like Fidelity Investments and Empower, which manage over $16.4 trillion and $1.8 trillion in assets, respectively [5] - The company sees a significant opportunity to collaborate with advisors and asset managers due to its independent model, which lacks competing divisions [6] Group 3: Industry Trends - There is a growing focus on connecting retirement plans to more lucrative financial advisor services and wealth management, as both recordkeeping and wealth management sectors seek to leverage the trillions in retirement assets [8] - Ascensus recognizes the need to curate investment solutions for the workplace, emphasizing personalized options and managed accounts [7]

Group 1 - The ideal retirement age for Americans is 58, which is earlier than the average retirement ages of 64 for men and 62 for women [2][4] - Nearly 60% of Americans retire earlier than expected, with health and employment-related reasons being the primary factors [4] - The full retirement age set by the Social Security Administration is 67 for those born after 1960, and claiming benefits at 62 results in a 30% reduction [3][4] Group 2 - A significant number of individuals (34%) would consider retiring later if it meant better financial stability [5] - Many Americans face challenges in saving enough for retirement, with a 65-year-old in 2025 needing $172,500 in after-tax savings for health expenses [6][7] - Starting to save early is crucial due to the power of compounding, which can help individuals amass significant wealth over time [7]

Summary of Great-West Lifeco FY Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Great-West Lifeco (OTCPK:GRWF.F) - **Date of Conference**: September 08, 2025 Key Industry Insights - **Industry Focus**: Retirement and wealth management sectors in the U.S. and Canada - **Market Position**: Second largest retirement provider in the U.S. after significant consolidation and strategic transactions [5][6] Core Strategic Points - **Portfolio Transformation**: The company has shifted its focus towards capital-light businesses, which now constitute about two-thirds of its operations, including retirement, wealth, and group benefits [7][8] - **Earnings Growth Target**: The earnings growth target has been raised from 8% to a range of 8% to 10%, with a return on equity (ROE) target increased from 16%-17% to 19% plus [7][76] - **Capital Generation**: The company aims to generate over 580% of capital as a percentage of earnings over the medium term, emphasizing strong capital generation capabilities [7][30] Operational Focus - **Wealth Business Expansion**: The primary focus over the next two to three years is to expand the wealth business in the U.S., with a target to increase rollover capture rates by 30% [10][11] - **Cost Efficiency**: The company has a cost advantage, able to reduce costs by 30%-40% when integrating new books onto its platform [14][15] - **Diversified Revenue Streams**: Approximately 50% of revenues are asset-based fees, with an additional 25%-30% from transactional fees, providing a diversified revenue profile [19][21] Competitive Landscape - **Market Share Gains**: The company has successfully captured $135 billion in plan flows from competitors over the last three to four years, indicating strong organic growth [26][27] - **Pricing Strategy**: While there is some price competition, the company believes it often wins on service and capability rather than price alone [29] International Operations - **Canada**: The company is a leading group benefits provider in Canada, focusing on small and medium sectors while also moving into larger markets [49][50] - **UK Market**: The company is targeting growth in bulk annuities and pension risk transfer, with a focus on small to mid-sized transactions [58][63] Future Outlook - **M&A Strategy**: The company remains open to opportunistic acquisitions, particularly in the retirement sector, while maintaining strict price discipline [31][34] - **Productivity Initiatives**: Investments are being made to improve efficiency, particularly in Canada, with a goal to reduce the efficiency ratio from 56%-57% to below 50% [69][70] - **Technological Advancements**: The company is modernizing its tech platform to enable AI integration, which is expected to drive further efficiencies [68][70] Conclusion - Great-West Lifeco is strategically positioned for growth in the retirement and wealth management sectors, with a focus on capital-light businesses, strong capital generation, and a commitment to enhancing customer experience and operational efficiency. The company is well-prepared for potential market consolidation and is actively pursuing opportunities to expand its market share.

Summary of Great-West Lifeco (GRWF.F) 2025 Conference Call Company Overview - Great-West Lifeco operates in the retirement, wealth, and insurance sectors, with a strong presence in Canada, the U.S., Europe, and global reinsurance markets [6][7][8] Key Points and Arguments Leadership and Strategy - The new leadership emphasizes continuity and organic growth, with a target of 8% to 10% earnings per share growth and a return on equity (ROE) exceeding 19% [7][8] - The company aims for over 80% capital generation and maintains a dividend payout ratio of 45% to 55% [8][8] Market Position and Growth - Great-West is positioned well in its markets, with no current plans for significant changes [12] - The company has shifted its portfolio towards capital-light businesses, expecting these to grow from 62% to 72% of base earnings by 2024 [13][13] Empower Business - Empower, the U.S. business, has shown strong organic growth, achieving a 13% year-over-year growth rate [14][14] - The company has secured €135 billion in net plan sales over the last three years, with total assets under administration at €1.8 trillion [18][18] - The workplace segment (401(k) plans) constitutes over 80% of Empower's earnings, with expectations for mid-single-digit growth [16][19] Wealth Business Dynamics - The wealth business is expected to grow significantly as more participants transition from workplace plans to retirement accounts [20][24] - The current rollover rate for retiring members is 15%, with aspirations to reach 20% and beyond [29][31] European Operations - The European segment is balanced, with significant operations in Ireland (over 30% market share) and a focus on the UK and Germany [33][34] - The company does not plan to expand into new European markets, focusing instead on strengthening existing positions [40][40] Canadian Market Insights - Canada remains a crucial market, with ambitions for growth in wealth and retirement solutions [46][48] - The defined contribution market in Canada is expected to benefit from reforms, with the company aiming to improve its position from third to first in this segment [49][50] Capital Management - The company has a strong capital position, with a target cash ratio of 125% and current levels at 130% [63][63] - The decision to increase the Normal Course Issuer Bid (NCIB) reflects the strong capital generation and the absence of immediate M&A opportunities [62][62] Efficiency and Technology - The company targets an efficiency ratio below 50%, currently at just under 57% [65][66] - Investments in AI and digital tools are expected to enhance operational efficiency and customer experience [69][72] Additional Important Insights - The reinsurance business is a significant part of the portfolio, contributing to diversification and strong returns [56][58] - The company is focused on maintaining strong relationships in the reinsurance market to capitalize on growth opportunities [58][58] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, highlighting Great-West Lifeco's strategic focus, market dynamics, and growth potential across its various business segments.

Federal Reserve Policy & Market Expectations - The market anticipates clarity from the Fed chair's Jackson Hole speech regarding potential rate cuts in September, but the Fed is unlikely to commit to a specific course of action [2][4] - The Fed is expected to emphasize concerns around tariff-induced inflation and the labor market, while assessing its long-term framework established in 2020, particularly average inflation targeting [3][4] - The futures market had previously priced in a 100% probability of a September rate cut, but this expectation has decreased due to comments from Fed officials [5][6] - If a rate cut is not announced in September, there is potential for market volatility [7] Earnings Performance & Economic Impact - Earnings season has been strong, with companies exceeding analysts' expectations of just under 5% earnings growth, achieving growth between 11% and 12% [8] - Strong earnings have mitigated concerns about the impact of tariffs and a weaker economy [9] - Despite significant shifts in trade policy and tariffs, the expected ramifications on economic data and earnings have been muted [10][11] - The impact of tariffs on earnings is expected to become more apparent over time [12] Market Outlook & Investment Strategy - There is reason to moderate expectations for future earnings, particularly for Q3, as tariffs could weigh on performance [13] - A significant amount of positive news has already been priced into the market, suggesting a need for caution [14][15] - The market has experienced broad-based gains, with sectors like tech, industrials, financials, and consumer staples performing well, indicating a degree of euphoria [14]

Market Trends & Regulatory Landscape - The executive order signed last week aims to make it easier for 401(k)s to include alternative investments like private equity and crypto [1][15] - Regulatory clarity and direction from the SEC and DOL are crucial in the coming weeks and months [15][16] Investment Opportunities & Strategies - Defined benefit plans, pension funds, endowments, and foundations have been investing in private assets for 30 years with positive returns [4][5] - Empower has formed partnerships with several alternative managers to provide access to these strategies [6] - The approach is to allocate no more than 15% of assets to private assets, using a collective investment trust or target date type construct with a liquidity sleeve [10] - Defined contribution market could see an allocation to privates between 10% and 20% over the next 10 years, potentially becoming a $4-5 trillion market [14][15] Potential Risks & Considerations - There is a convergence happening between the public and private markets regarding valuations, potentially impacting performance [8] - Illiquidity of private investments raises concerns about accessibility for retirees needing immediate access to funds [8][9] - Fee structures for private alternatives are meaningfully higher than in the public space, and the true returns post-fees need consideration [13][14] Company Performance & Strategy - Empower has 19 million customers and $2 trillion on its platform [12] - Empower aims to provide access to private assets, with the fiduciary (plan sponsor, advisor, and investment consultant) determining timing and strategies [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant policy shift in the U.S. pension investment landscape, allowing alternative assets such as private equity, real estate, and cryptocurrencies to be included in 401(k) retirement savings plans, as announced by President Trump [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Changes - President Trump will sign an executive order to permit alternative assets in 401(k) plans, marking a major policy shift in U.S. pension investments [1][2]. - The U.S. Department of Labor will reassess guidelines regarding alternative asset investments in 401(k) plans and clarify the government's fiduciary responsibilities [2][3]. - This reform aligns with Trump's support for the cryptocurrency industry and follows recent congressional actions favoring cryptocurrencies [2]. Group 2: Market Impact - Following the announcement, Bitcoin prices surged, and private equity stocks like Apollo Group saw slight pre-market gains [2]. - The inclusion of private market products in 401(k) plans is expected to provide savers with more investment options and potentially higher returns, despite the associated risks and costs [3]. Group 3: Industry Developments - Major asset management firms, such as BlackRock, plan to introduce funds that allocate a portion of assets to private markets within 401(k) plans by 2026 [4]. - Empower, the second-largest retirement plan service provider in the U.S., is set to collaborate with asset management companies, including Apollo, to introduce private asset allocations in select accounts [4]. Group 4: Current Landscape - As of Q1 2025, Americans are projected to hold approximately $8.7 trillion in 401(k) accounts, with asset managers beginning to launch alternative asset products specifically for retirement accounts [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's plan to sign an executive order that would open the $9 trillion U.S. pension market (401(k)) to alternative investments such as cryptocurrencies, gold, and private equity, fundamentally changing how Americans manage their retirement savings [1][2]. Group 1: Executive Order and Its Implications - The executive order is expected to allow 401(k) retirement plans to invest in a wide range of alternative assets beyond traditional stocks and bonds, including digital assets, precious metals, and private equity funds [1]. - The order will instruct federal regulators to investigate existing policy barriers to facilitate the inclusion of these alternative assets in 401(k) plans [1][2]. Group 2: Support for Cryptocurrency - The executive order is seen as accelerating Trump's efforts to mainstream cryptocurrency investments, following the repeal of several enforcement actions against major digital asset trading platforms [2][4]. - Trump's administration has already begun relaxing rules regarding the use of cryptocurrencies in retirement accounts, reversing a policy from the Biden administration that restricted such options [4]. Group 3: Benefits for Private Equity Firms - The executive order is expected to benefit major private equity firms like Blackstone, Apollo, and BlackRock, which are looking to attract significant new capital from the 401(k) market [5]. - The order may establish a "safe harbor" mechanism for 401(k) plan managers, reducing legal risks associated with offering private investment products that typically have higher fees and lower liquidity [5]. - Blackstone and Apollo have begun partnerships with large asset management companies to provide investment products for 401(k) plans, potentially attracting hundreds of billions in new funds [5].

Joining us now on the markets and prospects for earnings season, Marta Norton, chief investment strategist at Empower at Good to see you. Thanks on set with us. You have I guess been looking forward to corporate earnings because you think they could be okay and surprise maybe on the upside although tariff concerns remain given the number yesterday that you saw for the CPI when we got it.was to be honest, we we were kind of mixed. It didn't look as bad as as the worst case scenarios, but there looked like so ...