施罗德投资亚洲区多元资产投资主管近藤敬子发表2026年十大投资市场预测指，看好美股整体股票，但 降息环境下需对AI泡沫保持警惕；非美市场看好亚洲科技板块，认为其不仅盈利增长强于预期，且估 值尚未过度拉伸。而欧洲银行及工业股有望受益于国防支出等相关消费。此外，她还看好黄金，看淡美 元，尤其各国央行不断提高黄金储备，寻求多元化配置，去美元化趋势逐渐显现。 4.看好可换股债券。她指，可转换债券具备"80%股票上涨潜力+60%下跌保护"的独特属性，是兼顾收益 与防御的资产类别； 5.看好美国罗素2000指数。她提出，在无衰退降息环境中，中小型股通常表现突出。建议透过放空高收 益债对冲风险； 近藤敬子发表施罗德《2026年十大投资市场预测》如下： 1.看好美国整体股票。她指，在无衰退的降息环境中，持续偏好股票，但需注意AI热潮引发的泡沫疑 虑，观察亏损企业比例上升等指标。虽未达网路泡沫极端水平，但仍需警惕。她建议布局分散化投资组 合，而非集中押注； 2.看好亚洲科技板块及股票。她认为，亚洲科技股不仅盈利增长强于预期，且估值尚未过度拉伸，有望 实现盈利增长及估值修复的双重收益； 3.看好欧洲银行及工业股。可重点关注银行、 ...

这家咨询机构对全球300家资产管理公司、机构投资者和分销商的调查发现，私募市场收入预计到2030 年将达到4320亿美元，超越传统主动管理和被动投资产品的收入总和。2024年，私募资产仅占行业总收 入的44%。 报告指出，驱动私募市场快速扩张的因素包括投资者对更高回报的需求，以及该领域向更多零售投资者 开放。与此同时，传统基金管理业务面临费用压力加剧，近60%的机构投资者表示可能仅因成本考虑而 更换管理人。 普华永道英国全球资产与财富管理业务负责人Albertha Charles表示："我们预计私募市场将锚定资产管 理规模增长的很大一部分。"她指出，这一预测基于全球通胀和利率将继续下降的假设，这可能促使资 金从现金储蓄转向投资。 私募市场主导行业增长 最新报告显示，全球基金规模到2030年将达到200万亿美元，且私募将很快贡献到基金行业收入的一 半。 11月24日，据报道，普华永道最新报告显示，全球资产管理行业规模预计将从2024年的139万亿美元增 至2030年的200万亿美元，其中私募市场将成为增长主引擎，并在五年内首次贡献超过半数的行业收 入。 报告警告，尽管资产规模增长，行业利润率却持续承压。 普华永 ...

全球最大规模资管巨头贝莱德公司的最新调查显示，管理着23万亿美元资产的全球保险公司正计划进一 步增加私人市场持股，将其作为平滑长期回报的战略举措。此次调查覆盖463位保险业高管，其中93% 的受访者表示，预计未来12个月内将根据市场走势增加对私募资产的持仓，仅3%的高管预计会减少私 人投资。投资级私募信贷——包括基础设施债务和私募债券等细分领域——仍是投资者最为青睐的资产 类别。 近年来，保险公司持续积极拥抱另类资产，而私募股权公司通过收购保险公司推动私人信贷增长的趋 势，已引发立法者关注。他们指出，这个规模达1.7万亿美元的市场存在潜在风险，包括违约风险、私 人债务工具评级可能被虚高，以及相比银行更少的报告要求等问题。 调查发现，尽管大型保险公司——尤其是人寿保险公司——多年来已在私人信贷领域投入大量资金，但 一些规模较小的公司如今也开始转变方向，大幅增加另类资产配置。 自2008年金融危机后利率长期接近零水平以来，保险公司便更多转向私募市场寻求收益。埃里克森指 出，这引发了市场疑问：若利率环境变化，保险公司是否会减持这些资产? 而过去几年的加息周期已为这一问题提供了"响亮的答案"——保险公司不仅未削减，反 ...

Core Insights - The discussion at the Global Wealth Management Forum highlighted how artificial intelligence (AI) is fundamentally reshaping the future of asset management [2] - AI is seen as a tool to enhance productivity in service-oriented companies, narrowing the gap with manufacturing firms [2] - Historical examples show that aging economies have successfully adopted new technologies to improve productivity, with AI being the next wave of innovation [2] Group 1 - AI has reached a level of maturity that allows service companies to leverage it for significant productivity gains [2] - The most exciting and disruptive applications of AI are emerging directly in investment management, with AI systems approaching the skill level of human investment managers [2] - The challenge to human judgment in asset management is not about "if" AI will compete, but "when" it will match or exceed traditional human advantages [3] Group 2 - Future exploration is needed on how to apply AI in areas such as asset allocation, private assets, external fund selection, and money market funds [3] - Many projects utilizing AI in asset management are expected to yield results soon [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant policy shift in the U.S. pension investment landscape, allowing alternative assets such as private equity, real estate, and cryptocurrencies to be included in 401(k) retirement savings plans, as announced by President Trump [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Changes - President Trump will sign an executive order to permit alternative assets in 401(k) plans, marking a major policy shift in U.S. pension investments [1][2]. - The U.S. Department of Labor will reassess guidelines regarding alternative asset investments in 401(k) plans and clarify the government's fiduciary responsibilities [2][3]. - This reform aligns with Trump's support for the cryptocurrency industry and follows recent congressional actions favoring cryptocurrencies [2]. Group 2: Market Impact - Following the announcement, Bitcoin prices surged, and private equity stocks like Apollo Group saw slight pre-market gains [2]. - The inclusion of private market products in 401(k) plans is expected to provide savers with more investment options and potentially higher returns, despite the associated risks and costs [3]. Group 3: Industry Developments - Major asset management firms, such as BlackRock, plan to introduce funds that allocate a portion of assets to private markets within 401(k) plans by 2026 [4]. - Empower, the second-largest retirement plan service provider in the U.S., is set to collaborate with asset management companies, including Apollo, to introduce private asset allocations in select accounts [4]. Group 4: Current Landscape - As of Q1 2025, Americans are projected to hold approximately $8.7 trillion in 401(k) accounts, with asset managers beginning to launch alternative asset products specifically for retirement accounts [3].