Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by President Trump regarding a 50% tariff on certain copper products has led to significant volatility in copper prices, impacting both domestic and global markets [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Reactions - On July 31, A-share copper mining stocks experienced a collective decline, with major companies like Jiangxi Copper and Luoyang Molybdenum falling over 4% [1] - The announcement caused a dramatic drop in copper futures, with COMEX copper prices plummeting over 18% to $4.63 per pound, marking the largest single-day decline in history [2] - The price difference between COMEX and LME copper contracts narrowed significantly, indicating a shift in market dynamics [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The new tariff policy is seen as a correction to the previously inflated expectations for U.S. copper prices, leading to a more balanced import strategy [3] - U.S. refined copper imports surged to 864,000 tons in the first half of the year, a 147% increase year-on-year, indicating a supply surplus [3] - If the price difference between U.S. and LME copper contracts turns negative, it could lead to a significant outflow of copper stocks from the U.S. to Asia and Europe, creating inventory pressures [3] Group 3: Future Policy Uncertainty - The prospect of U.S. refined copper import tariffs is not entirely off the table, with potential plans for a 15% tariff in 2027 and a 30% tariff in 2028 [4] - The volatility in U.S. copper prices poses challenges for companies in managing risks effectively, as market conditions are increasingly influenced by geopolitical factors [4] - The impact of the new tariff policy on China's copper exports is expected to be limited, with China accounting for only 5.2% of U.S. copper imports [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated weakly, with an increase in open interest, a spot premium, and a strengthening basis. The copper concentrate TC fee is in the negative range, and the tight supply of copper ore remains the main contradiction, so the cost - support logic for copper prices still exists. The growth rate of domestic refined copper production may slow down slightly. The downstream processing enterprises are in the off - season, and the spot market trading sentiment is dull. The social inventory is at a medium - low level. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage where the supply growth rate slows slightly, demand is temporarily weak but the expectation is gradually improving. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are below the 0 - axis and the green bars are expanding. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract was 78,040 yuan/ton, down 890 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price was 9,626 dollars/ton, down 72.5 dollars. The main contract's open interest increased by 4,504 hands to 176,193 hands, while the futures' top 20 open interest decreased by 5,333 hands to 8,781 hands. The LME copper inventory increased by 9,225 tons to 136,850 tons, and the LME copper cancelled warrants decreased by 25 tons to 19,375 tons. The SHFE cathode copper inventory decreased by 11,133 tons to 73,423 tons, and the SHFE cathode copper warrants decreased by 2,856 tons to 19,622 tons [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 copper spot price was 78,565 yuan/ton, down 720 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price was 78,555 yuan/ton, down 730 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price was 61 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium was 48 dollars/ton, unchanged. The CU main contract basis was 525 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan; the LME copper spread (0 - 3) was - 46.8 dollars/ton, up 4.91 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 234.97 million tons, down 4.58 million tons. The copper concentrate prices in Jiangxi and Yunnan decreased by 730 yuan/ton to 68,880 yuan/ton and 69,580 yuan/ton respectively. The copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) was - 42.63 dollars/kiloton, up 0.82 dollars. The refined copper output was 130.2 million tons, up 4.8 million tons, and the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 460,000 tons, up 30,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The social copper inventory was 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai increased by 250 yuan/ton to 55,540 yuan/ton, and the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai increased by 200 yuan/ton to 67,900 yuan/ton. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5下游及应用 - The copper product output was 221.45 million tons, up 11.85 million tons. The cumulative grid infrastructure investment was 291.1 billion yuan, up 87.114 billion yuan. The cumulative real estate development investment was 46,657.56 billion yuan, up 10,423.72 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,505,785,400 pieces, up 270,785,400 pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 11.09%, up 0.61%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.36%, up 0.42%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV decreased by 0.0006 to 10.62%, and the at - the - money option call - put ratio was 1.4, up 0.0176 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association will strictly control the new capacity of copper smelting and alumina, and guide the rational layout of new capacities such as silicon, lithium, and magnesium. The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged for the fifth consecutive time. The initial value of the annualized quarterly - on - quarterly growth rate of the US real GDP in the second quarter was 3%, far exceeding the expected 2.4%. The Politburo of the CPC Central Committee emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability. Trump signed an announcement to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper semi - finished products and high - copper derivatives from August 1 [2].

格隆汇7月31日｜港股市场铜概念股集体下跌，其中，中国大冶有色金属跌超6%，江西铜业(600362)股 份跌超3%，兴业合金、中国黄金国际、中国金属利用跌超2%，五矿资源跌近2%。消息面上，美国总统 特朗普意外宣布，对铜加征新关税中，美国期铜大泻两成，创史上最大单日跌幅。 （责任编辑：宋政 HN002） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com | 代码 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 ^ | 最新价 | 总市值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 00661 | 中国大冶有色金属 | -6.45% | 0.058 | 10.38亿 | | 00358 | 江西铜业股份 | -3.85% | 15.980 | 553.34亿 | | 00505 | 兴业台等 | -2.94% | 0.990 | 8.91亿 | | 01258 | 中国有色矿业 | -2.65% | 7.7 ...

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Hong Kong 300 Materials Index has shown significant growth, with a 10.89% increase over the past month, 32.08% over the past three months, and 51.78% year-to-date [1]. Group 1: Index Performance - The China Securities Hong Kong 300 Materials Index is currently at 2481.10 points [1]. - The index is based on a sample of all securities classified into various industries according to the China Securities industry classification standards [1]. Group 2: Index Composition - The top ten holdings in the China Securities Hong Kong 300 Materials Index include Zijin Mining (26.77%), China Hongqiao (11.87%), and Luoyang Molybdenum (7.47%) among others [1]. - The index is fully composed of stocks listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a 100% representation [1]. Group 3: Industry Breakdown - The industry composition of the index shows that non-ferrous metals account for 79.54%, non-metallic materials for 14.60%, chemicals for 4.25%, and paper and packaging for 1.61% [2]. - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December [2].

港股市场铜概念股集体下跌，其中，中国大冶有色金属跌超6%，江西铜业股份跌超3%，兴业合金、中 国黄金国际、中国金属利用跌超2%，五矿资源跌近2%。消息面上，美国总统特朗普意外宣布，对铜加 征新关税中，美国期铜大泻两成，创史上最大单日跌幅。 | 代码 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 ^ | 最新价 | 总市值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 00661 | 中国大冶有色金属 | -6.45% | 0.058 | 10.38亿 | | 00358 | 江西铜业股份 | -3.85% | 15.980 | 553.34亿 | | 00505 | 兴业合会 | -2.94% | 0.990 | 8.91亿 | | 01258 | 中国有色矿业 | -2.65% | 7.720 | 301.24亿 | | 02099 | 中国黄金国际 | -2.51% | 67.900 | 269.16亿 | | 01636 | 中国金属利用 | -2.20% | 0.890 | 3.99亿 | | 01208 | 五矿资源 | -1.75% | 3.930 | 477.12亿 | 责任编辑：栎树 特朗普 ...

特朗普曾在7月初暗示，关税将适用于各类铜产品，由矿场与冶炼厂生产的电解铜，到电线及其他制成 品。但白宫发布最新公告中，表示该关税将自本周五起仅适用于铜管、铜管件及其他半成品铜制品，以 及大量使用铜来制造产品，包括电缆与电气元件。 | 代码 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 ^ | 最新价 | 总市值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 00661 | 中国大冶有色金属 | -6.45% | 0.058 | 10.38亿 | | 00358 | 江西铜业股份 | -3.85% | 15.980 | 553.34 Z | | 00505 | 兴业合金 | -2.94% | 0.990 | 8.91亿 | | 01258 | 中国有色矿业 | -2.65% | 7.720 | 301.24亿 | | 02099 | 中国黄金国际 | -2.51% | 67.900 | 269.16亿 | | 01636 | 中国金属利用 | -2.20% | 0.890 | 2666.8 | | 01208 | 五矿资源 | -1.75% | 3.930 | 477.12亿 | 港股市场铜概念股集体下跌，其 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver alloy target materials are crucial conductive materials in semiconductor integrated circuits, with increasing demand driven by the growth of high-end electronic products and advancements in semiconductor technology [1][5][18]. Group 1: Market Overview - The market size for silver-based alloy targets in China is projected to reach approximately 135 million yuan in 2024, with a total consumption of 22.38 tons, and is expected to grow to 160 million yuan and 26.89 tons in 2025 [1][5][7]. - The G6.0 generation line is the primary consumer of silver alloy targets, utilizing 19.22 tons in 2024, which is expected to increase to about 23.56 tons in 2025 [7][18]. Group 2: Industry Chain - The upstream of the silver alloy target industry includes high-purity silver and alloy materials, involving silver mining and high-purity metal refining [9]. - The midstream consists of the manufacturing of silver alloy targets, which are widely used in high-end manufacturing sectors such as semiconductors, OLED displays, and energy industries [9][11]. Group 3: Production Process - The manufacturing process of silver alloy targets involves raw material purification, alloy melting, casting, forging, rolling, heat treatment, and machining, with impurity content and microstructure being critical factors affecting target quality [11][18]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The silver alloy target market is dominated by foreign companies, with Japan's Mitsubishi holding over 50% of the market share in 2024, followed by South Korea's LT at 34.95% and Germany's Materion at 6.8% [13][15]. - Domestic companies such as Fujian Astone and Shenzhen Top New Materials are in the early stages of research and development, focusing on alloying and preparation process control [15][18]. Group 5: Patent Technology - Various companies are developing innovative technologies for silver alloy targets, including methods to enhance mechanical properties and corrosion resistance through specific alloying elements [17]. Group 6: Industry Development Trends - The silver alloy target industry is characterized by high technical barriers and significant potential for domestic substitution, as China gradually advances in research and innovation in this field [18][20].

Group 1: Macro Events and Market Impact - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce confirmed that both sides will continue to promote the extension of the 24% reciprocal tariffs and China's countermeasures, which is beneficial for export-dependent Chinese companies such as Haier and Midea, potentially boosting their valuations [2] - The IMF raised China's GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 4% to 4.8%, primarily due to better-than-expected exports and lower-than-expected actual tariffs, which may attract foreign investment into Chinese assets, particularly in sectors like renewable energy and infrastructure [3] - The conflict at the Thailand-Cambodia border has escalated, impacting the Southeast Asian supply chain and benefiting defense and safe-haven assets while negatively affecting manufacturing sectors like electronics and rubber [4] Group 2: Key Industries and Stock Opportunities - Apple's AI team is experiencing turmoil with the departure of key members, which may hinder its self-developed AI progress and increase reliance on third-party models, benefiting partners like Microsoft and Google [5] - The approval of the "Blue Sky" plan by the U.S. Department of Transportation for JetBlue and United Airlines enhances customer loyalty and may catalyze global airline alliance integration, with a focus on Chinese airlines' international cooperation [7] - Novo Nordisk's stock plummeted by 22% due to weak growth of its weight-loss drug Wegovy, leading to a downward revision of its 2025 sales and profit guidance, which negatively impacts global weight-loss drug stocks while benefiting competitors in the GLP-1 space [8] Group 3: Commodities and Monetary Policy - WTI crude oil prices surged nearly 4% to $69.21 per barrel, driven by easing trade tensions and U.S. pressure on Russian energy exports, benefiting oil service and exploration companies [9] - The Chilean central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.75%, signaling a potential easing of monetary policy in Latin America, which is favorable for copper mining companies [10] Group 4: Investment Strategy Recommendations - The current investment strategy suggests increasing allocations in resource stocks (oil/copper) and AI technology beneficiaries while being cautious of geopolitical conflicts and potential valuation corrections in the pharmaceutical sector [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the tungsten industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The tungsten industry chain extends from exploration and mining of tungsten ore to smelting and deep processing, ultimately applied in various industrial fields. The upstream focuses on black and white tungsten ore, while the midstream involves the smelting of tungsten concentrate, ammonium paratungstate (APT), and tungsten powder. The downstream includes the processing of tungsten materials, tungsten wires, and hard alloys, with demand coming from sectors like machinery manufacturing, automotive, and electronics [2][6] - As of July 23, 2023, the prices for tungsten products have seen significant increases compared to the beginning of the year, with black tungsten concentrate at 185,000 RMB/ton (up 29.4%), APT at 272,000 RMB/ton (up 28.9%), tungsten powder at 405 RMB/kg (up 28.2%), and tungsten carbide powder at 395 RMB/kg (up 27.0%) [2][16] - The supply of tungsten is tightening, with the first batch of mining indicators for 2023-2025 showing a decrease in quotas, leading to expectations of a supply shortage. China's tungsten resources are abundant, holding the world's largest tungsten reserves and production, but total control policies have gradually lowered production levels [2][29] - Demand for tungsten is expected to grow, particularly in the fields of new energy vehicles and military applications, with the APT operating rate at historical highs. The demand for high-end hard alloys is resilient, supporting mid-to-high-end tungsten prices [2][16] - The tungsten supply-demand balance indicates a projected shortage of 2,919 tons in 2025, with prices expected to continue rising. Demand is anticipated to grow at a rate of 4.9% to 6.3% from 2025 to 2027, while supply is expected to increase by only 2,000 tons annually [2][16] - Key companies in the tungsten industry include Xiamen Tungsten, which has a full industry chain layout and is rapidly increasing its photovoltaic tungsten wire production; Zhongtung High-tech, a leader in hard alloys with significant raw material supply advantages; and Zhangyuan Tungsten, which has prominent resource advantages and improved deep processing profitability [2][16] Summary by Sections Tungsten Price Review - The tungsten prices have shown a steady increase over the past five years, correlating positively with PMI [9][12] Supply: Decrease in Mining Indicators - The first batch of mining indicators for 2023-2025 shows a reduction, with 2025's indicators down by 6.45%. This reduction reinforces expectations of a tight supply [2][16] Demand: Growth Driven by Photovoltaic Tungsten Wire - The demand for tungsten is expected to increase, particularly in high-end applications, with a projected consumption of 71,000 tons in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 3.5% [2][6] Supply-Demand Balance: Expanding Shortage - The tungsten supply-demand balance indicates a growing shortage, with projected deficits increasing from 2,919 tons in 2025 to 9,020 tons by 2027 [2][16] Company Analysis - Xiamen Tungsten is expanding its photovoltaic tungsten wire production, while Zhongtung High-tech is a leader in hard alloys with strong raw material supply advantages [2][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoint - Due to the continued extension of the mutual suspension of additional tariffs between China and the US, the increasing probability of a Fed rate cut in September, and disruptions in production or transportation at multiple overseas copper mines, combined with the traditional off - season suppressing downstream demand, the price of Shanghai copper is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended that investors wait and see, and pay attention to support and resistance levels for Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Summary - On July 29, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 78,840 yuan, down 160 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 65,404 lots, a decrease of 10,226 lots; the open interest was 173,744 lots, down 2,348 lots; the inventory was 18,083 tons, up 251 tons [2][3]. - The closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic session) on July 29, 2025, was 9,803 US dollars, up 40.5 US dollars from the previous day; the total registered and cancelled warehouse stock was 0 tons, a decrease of 127,625 tons [3]. 3.2 Company and Project News - In July 2025, Jiangxi Copper Group's first overseas wholly - owned factory, Jiangxi Copper (Zambia) Optoelectronics Co., Ltd.'s wire and cable project, was officially put into full production in the Zambia Mwaiseni Industrial Park. The first - phase investment is 11 million US dollars, with an annual production capacity of 40,000 kilometers of wire and cable and 10,000 tons of oxygen - free copper rods [3]. - Teck Resources has lowered the production forecast of Quebrada Blanca due to ore storage problems, and has suspended production at the mine for one month [3]. - Fuye Group plans to establish a subsidiary, Jiangxi Heming Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd., in Jiangxi Hengfeng Economic Development Zone to build a project with an annual production capacity of 180,000 tons of recycled electrolytic copper [3]. 3.3 Upstream Production News - Teck Resources has lowered the expected production of the Quebrada Blanca copper mine in 2025. Mermot's Red Chris copper mine in Canada has suspended operations due to an accident. Anglo Asian Mining's Demirl1 copper mine has started trial production, with an expected production of 4,000 tons of copper concentrate in 2025 and 15,000 tons in 2026 and later. Norilsk Nickel has lowered its 2025 copper production forecast from 353,000 - 373,000 tons to 343,000 - 355,000 tons [5]. 3.4 Macro - level News - The US Senate has passed a stablecoin - related bill, allowing pension funds and other institutions to invest in assets such as gold and digital currencies. Import tariffs have pushed up commodity prices, causing a slight increase in the US consumer - end CPE rate in June. The initial jobless claims were 217,000, lower than expected and the previous value. The probability of a Fed rate cut in August has increased due to political pressure [4][5].