分享 reface 前⾔ at if our AI bullishness continues to be right...and what if that's actually bearish? 果我们的对 AI 的乐观持续正确……而这反而成了利空，会怎样？ at follows is a scenario, not a prediction. This isn't bear porn or AI doomer fan-fiction. e sole intent of this piece is modeling a scenario that's been relatively underexplored. Our nd Alap Shah posed the question, and together we brainstormed the answer. We wrote this t, and he's written two others you can find here. 下情景为设想，而非预测。这并非唱空轰动或人工智能末日主义同人文。本文唯一 的，是对一个相对较少被探讨的情景进行建模。我 ...

2028 年全球情报危机 --- THE 2028 GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE CRISIS substack.com/home/post/p-188821754 Substack Preface 序言 What if our AI bullishness continues to be right...and what if that's actually bearish? 倘若我们对人工智能的乐观情绪持续正确 …… 而这种 " 正确 " 本身反而预示着悲观前景，又当如 何？ What follows is a scenario, not a prediction. This isn't bear porn or AI doomer fan-fiction. The sole intent of this piece is modeling a scenario that's been relatively underexplored. Our friend Alap Shah posed the question, and together we brainstormed the answer ...

Market Overview - On February 19, U.S. stock markets opened lower and closed down, with all three major indices declining [1][2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.54% to 49,395.16 points, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.28% to 6,861.89 points, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 0.31% to 22,682.73 points [2][3] Asset Management Sector - Blue Owl Capital announced the sale of $1.4 billion in loan assets from three private debt funds, raising concerns among investors about potential losses in the private loan sector [4] - Following this news, several asset management companies experienced significant stock declines: Blue Owl Capital down 5.93%, Blackstone down 5.37%, Apollo Global Management down 5.21%, Ares Management down 3.08%, and Brookfield down 2.68% [4] Software Industry - The software sector also showed weakness, with notable declines in stocks such as Cadence Design Systems down 2.76%, SAP down 2.41%, Intuit down 2.06%, and ServiceNow down 1.33% [4] - Concerns about artificial intelligence potentially disrupting the software industry were highlighted, with Mistral AI's CEO stating that over 50% of enterprise software could be replaced by this technology [4] Energy Sector - Energy stocks mostly rose amid ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran, with ConocoPhillips up 0.97% and Chevron up 0.49% [5] Retail Sector - Walmart's stock fell by 1.38% after the company provided a fiscal year profit guidance that fell short of market expectations, overshadowing its better-than-expected fourth-quarter results [5] Technology Stocks - Major tech stocks had mixed performances: Nvidia down 0.04%, Apple down 1.43%, Alphabet down 0.13%, Microsoft down 0.29%, Amazon up 0.03%, Meta up 0.24%, and Tesla up 0.12% [6][7] Chinese Stocks - The LiFeng Chinese stock index fell by 0.54%, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index decreased by 0.35% [8] - Popular Chinese stocks mostly declined, with Bawang Tea down 2.5%, Trip.com down 2.28%, Alibaba down 0.96%, and Pinduoduo down 0.94% [8] Company News - Amazon surpassed Walmart to become the highest-grossing company globally, reporting $717 billion in sales for the fiscal year ending December, compared to Walmart's $713.2 billion [9] - AMD announced it will support a $300 million loan to Crusoe, backed by chip products [10] - Hims & Hers Health is acquiring Australian digital health company Eucalyptus for up to $1.15 billion, which boosted its stock by approximately 7% in pre-market trading [11] - Yorkville America Equities LLC announced plans to acquire the Point Bridge America First ETF, focusing on investments aligned with former President Trump's "America First" ideology [12] - BE Semiconductor Industries reported fourth-quarter revenue of €166.4 million, exceeding analyst expectations, and projected a revenue growth of 5%-15% for the first quarter [13]

GATX (NYSE:GATX) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 19, 2026 11:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsAndrzej Tomczyk - VPBob Lyons - President and CEOHarrison Bauer - Equity Research AssociatePaul Titterton - EVP and President of Rail North AmericaShari Hellerman - Head of Investor RelationsTom Ellman - EVP and CFOConference Call ParticipantsBen Moore - Director and Equity Research AnalystBrendan McCarthy - Equity AnalystJustin Bergner - Manager and Research AnalystOperatorThank you for standing by. My name is Jordan, ...

GATX (NYSE:GATX) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 19, 2026 11:00 AM ET Speaker6Thank you for standing by. My name is Jordan, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to the GATX 2025 fourth quarter earnings call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star followed by the number 1 on your telephon ...

Trisura Group (OTCPK:TRRS.F) Fireside chat February 19, 2026 10:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsDavid Clare - CEOConference Call ParticipantsDoug Young - Managing Director and Senior Equity AnalystOperatorGood morning, everyone, and we apologize for the delay this morning. Thank you for joining us on today's call with David Clare, CEO of Trisura Group, and Doug Young, Bank and Insurance analyst at Desjardins. A quick reminder before we begin, as attendees, you are in listen-only mode. You will be able to submi ...

Core Insights - Uber reported its fastest growth in years, with gross bookings increasing by 22.5%, driven by an 18% rise in monthly users and improved frequency of use [1] - Free cash flow (FCF) grew by 42% throughout 2025, indicating strong financial performance [1] - The company expanded its Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) into multiple markets and saw a 55% increase in Uber One membership [1] Company Strategy - The investment philosophy emphasizes accumulating quality compounders at a discount, focusing on sustainable long-term growth rather than speculative investments [1] - The company seeks to identify firms with strong growth potential, shareholder-friendly capital allocation, and minimal dilution, supported by favorable market trends [1] - Current sector focus includes Technology, Autonomous Vehicles, Logistics, and Fintech, highlighting a diversified investment approach [1] Market Positioning - The methodology involves deep fundamental analysis to uncover asymmetric risk opportunities, where the market may undervalue a company's competitive advantages or future prospects [1] - A notable example is Google, which was undervalued despite significant advancements in its core business through AI [1] - The goal is to achieve an annualized portfolio growth rate of 15% or higher by leveraging market dislocations [1]

Core Insights - Netflix has over 325 million subscribers globally with a retention rate exceeding 98%, indicating strong customer loyalty and engagement [1] - The acquisition of Warner Bros. is expected to enhance user engagement and solidify Netflix's position in the entertainment industry [1] Investment Philosophy - The company focuses on accumulating quality compounders at a discount, emphasizing long-term compounding over speculative investments [1] - It seeks companies with sustainable growth, shareholder-friendly capital allocation, and strong secular tailwinds, particularly in sectors like Technology, Autonomous Vehicles, Logistics, and Fintech [1] Methodology - The investment approach involves deep fundamental analysis to identify asymmetric risk opportunities where the market may misunderstand a company's competitive advantages or future prospects [1] - A notable example cited is Google, which was undervalued despite its advancements in AI [1] Portfolio Goals - The objective is to achieve an annualized portfolio growth rate of 15% or higher by capitalizing on market dislocations [1] - Current high-conviction holdings include Uber, Google, and Brookfield, reflecting a diversified investment strategy [1] Research and Transparency - The company documents its due diligence rigorously on platforms like Seeking Alpha, promoting transparency and accountability in its analysis [1]

Core Insights - Netflix has over 325 million subscribers globally with a retention rate exceeding 98%, indicating strong customer loyalty and engagement [1] - The acquisition of Warner Bros. is expected to enhance user engagement and solidify Netflix's position in the entertainment industry [1] Company Analysis - Netflix is characterized as an entrenched entertainment company with significant operating leverage and long-term growth potential [1] - The investment philosophy emphasizes sustainable wealth through long-term compounding, focusing on companies with strong growth trajectories and shareholder-friendly capital allocation [1] Investment Strategy - The investment approach involves identifying companies with decades of growth potential, low dilution, and strong secular tailwinds, particularly in sectors like Technology, Autonomous Vehicles, Logistics, and Fintech [1] - The methodology includes rigorous fundamental analysis to uncover asymmetric risk opportunities where the market may misjudge a company's competitive advantages or future prospects [1] Current Holdings - Top high-conviction holdings include Uber, Google, and Brookfield, with a goal to achieve an annualized portfolio compounding rate of 15% or higher by leveraging market dislocations [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Annual revenue increased to approximately CAD 3.5 billion in 2025, up 11% compared to 2024 [14] - Adjusted EBITDA was about CAD 1.9 billion, which was up 26% from the previous year [14] - Adjusted net earnings of just under CAD 630 million represent a 115% improvement compared to 2024 [14] - The balance sheet remains strong, ending the year with approximately CAD 1.2 billion in cash and short-term investments, CAD 1 billion in total debt [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Uranium segment produced 21 million pounds on a consolidated basis in 2025, exceeding revised annual guidance [15] - Fuel services segment delivered strong performance, including record UF6 production at Port Hope [16] - JV Inkai met its annual production target, delivering 3.7 million pounds for 2025 [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Average realized prices improved, reflecting a strengthening long-term market environment [14] - Approximately 230 million pounds committed under long-term contracts by year-end [14] - Long-term contracting volumes in 2025 remained below replacement-rate levels, indicating a need for continued discipline [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on disciplined execution and long-term strategy, adapting to market volatility [8] - Continued investment in next-generation enrichment and partnerships, including a strategic partnership with Westinghouse and the U.S. government [10][18] - Plans to ramp up uranium production in 2026, with commitments to deliver an average of about 28 million pounds annually over the next five years [13][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted ongoing geopolitical turmoil but emphasized resilience and adaptation within the industry [8] - The outlook for growth across the nuclear fuel cycle is driven by electrification, decarbonization, and energy security priorities [19] - The company expects to produce between 19.5 million and 21.5 million pounds of uranium in 2026, with an average realized price between CAD 85 and CAD 89 [21] Other Important Information - The company maintains significant uncommitted productive capacity to deploy as market fundamentals strengthen [14] - The investment in Westinghouse is expected to yield strong performance, with an outlook for adjusted EBITDA from Westinghouse of approximately $370 million-$430 million in 2026 [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance framework for Westinghouse business - Management discussed the potential financial impact of projects and the excitement around the Gen III reactor opportunities, emphasizing discipline in guidance [28][30] Question: Average realized pricing outlook for 2026 - Management explained the lack of significant price appreciation is due to a disciplined marketing strategy, preserving pounds for when demand increases [34][36] Question: Production outlook at McArthur River - Management acknowledged delays and emphasized a systematic approach to development, aligning production with market demand [50][52] Question: Technical risks around McArthur River - Management clarified that risks are being managed proactively and are not indicative of a riskier environment, focusing on disciplined production strategy [62][64] Question: Potential stresses on production capacity - Management expressed confidence in meeting future demand and emphasized the importance of disciplined production planning [68][70] Question: Westinghouse EBITDA guidance - Management noted that the guidance reflects core business drivers and the timing of regulatory approvals impacting immediate orders [74][76] Question: Conversion market contracting - Management highlighted the importance of securing long-term contracts at historic prices and the strategic approach to maximizing asset value [78][80]