February 17, 2026 09:05 PM GMT IT Hardware | North America Where There's Smoke… 10 Memory FAQs & Off-Cycle Earnings Preview M Our Hardware Industry downgrade and memory price inflation concerns have prompted several investor questions, which we address in this report. All told, recent earnings results reinforce our conviction in our Cautionary thesis, setting up a challenging off-cycle earnings week ahead. Key Takeaways We are gaining conviction in our cautionary memory thesis...here's the supporting eviden ...

Core Insights - Super Micro Computer experienced a significant stock increase of 13.78% to close at $33.76, driven by strong fiscal Q2 results and heightened demand for AI infrastructure [1] - The company reported a remarkable 123% year-over-year revenue growth and raised its full-year revenue guidance to at least $40 billion, indicating confidence in sustainable AI-led growth [4] Financial Performance - The trading volume for Super Micro Computer reached 115 million shares, approximately four times its three-month average of 29 million shares, reflecting heightened investor interest [2] - The company has seen a total growth of 3,754% since its IPO in 2007, showcasing its long-term performance trajectory [2] Market Context - The broader market saw the S&P 500 decline by 0.51% and the Nasdaq Composite fall by 1.51%, while peers in the technology hardware sector, such as Hewlett Packard Enterprise and Dell Technologies, showed positive performance [3] - Competitive pressures have led to a decrease in gross margins compared to both the previous quarter and the same period last year, which investors should monitor closely [5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: IT Hardware, specifically focusing on North America - **Key Trends**: Rising memory costs, HDD supply shortages, and strong demand for AI servers are shaping the current landscape Core Insights 1. **iPhone Demand**: iPhone strength is expected to continue into CY26, with December 2025 tracking 20-40% year-over-year growth in China, partly due to Huawei's decline [13][11] 2. **HDD Supply Shortage**: The HDD supply shortage is worsening, now projected to be 200EB short of demand over the next 12 months, up from previous estimates of 100-150EB [12][15] 3. **Price Increases**: Most hardware OEMs, except Apple, are expected to raise product prices significantly in the first half of CY26 to offset rising memory costs, which may lead to unit declines in Android smartphones and Windows PCs for the full year [2][12] 4. **AI Server Demand**: Demand for AI servers remains robust, with over 30% year-over-year growth expected for general servers among cloud service providers (CSPs) in 2026 [2][21] 5. **OEM Headcount Reductions**: OEMs like DELL, HPQ, and HPE are likely to cut headcount to protect operating margins due to rising input costs and a shift towards AI servers, which have lower gross margins [2][12] Additional Important Insights 1. **Memory Pricing**: DRAM prices are expected to increase by 40-70% quarter-over-quarter in C1Q26, while NAND prices are projected to rise by 30-35% [9][8] 2. **Apple's Strategy**: Apple has secured favorable NAND pricing through a deal with KIOXIA but may face renegotiations in early 2026. Apple is also expected to introduce a low-cost MacBook at $599 in C1H26 to gain market share [7][14] 3. **General Server Pricing**: General server pricing is anticipated to increase significantly due to rising memory costs, which may lead to a strong C1Q26 followed by a weaker second half of the year [12][19] 4. **PC Market Dynamics**: PC demand is currently stable, with OEMs negotiating prices due to rising memory costs. Smaller OEMs may struggle to secure memory supply compared to larger players like DELL and HPQ [20][22] 5. **Supply Chain Adjustments**: HDD makers are reallocating capacity from consumer applications to cloud demand, and STX is raising consumer HDD prices by 10% each quarter to align margins with nearline drives [15][12] Conclusion The IT hardware industry is facing significant challenges and opportunities driven by rising memory costs, supply shortages, and shifting demand towards AI servers. Companies are adapting their strategies to navigate these dynamics, with a focus on maintaining margins and market share.

Core Insights - Armanino Foods of Distinction, Inc. has appointed Andrew Leonard as Chief Financial Officer, effective January 5, 2026, to support the company's growth phase [1][5] Company Overview - Armanino Foods is a leading producer and marketer of premium frozen Italian and specialty foods, serving retail, foodservice, and industrial customers across North America and select international markets [6] - The company is known for its top-selling Basil Pesto and offers a variety of sauces and stuffed pasta dishes, produced in a facility with rigorous quality systems [6] Leadership Experience - Andrew Leonard has over 25 years of experience in operational and strategic finance, capital markets, and mergers & acquisitions [2] - Prior to joining Armanino, Leonard served as Vice President of Finance for Pallidus, where he established financial frameworks to support growth [3] - He has held senior finance leadership roles at Hewlett Packard Enterprise, culminating in Vice President of Finance & Business Unit CFO [3] Strategic Importance - Leonard's combination of operational finance leadership and capital markets expertise is seen as crucial for Armanino's current growth trajectory [5] - The CEO of Armanino emphasized that Leonard's experience in manufacturing and public-company finance will strengthen the leadership team as they execute their long-term value creation strategy [5] - Leonard expressed enthusiasm about joining Armanino, highlighting the company's strong market position and disciplined operating model as a foundation for future growth [5]

Market Overview - Wall Street experienced a surge as investor confidence in a December rate cut increased, with odds rising above 90% due to soft inflation data and dovish comments from the Federal Reserve [1] - The Nasdaq Composite achieved its longest winning streak since January, while the S&P 500 approached record highs, driven by gains in the tech and consumer sectors [2] Bullish Stocks - CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. reported Q3 revenue of $1.23 billion, a 22% year-over-year increase, surpassing analysts' expectations, with adjusted EPS of $0.96 [3] - MongoDB, Inc. posted Q3 revenue of $628.31 million and adjusted EPS of $1.32, both exceeding expectations, and raised its full-year guidance [5] - Robotics-related stocks surged following reports of a potential executive order from the Trump administration aimed at boosting the U.S. robotics and advanced manufacturing sector [4] Bearish Stocks - Super Micro Computer Inc., Palantir Technologies, and Oracle Corp. saw significant declines of 35%, approximately 16%, and 23% respectively, amid a swift rotation out of AI-related equities [6] - Quantum stocks, including Rigetti Computing and D-Wave Quantum, experienced drops of roughly 40% and over 30% respectively, as investor enthusiasm waned [7] - SoFi Technologies Inc. shares fell approximately 5.7% in after-hours trading following the announcement of a $1.5 billion common-stock offering, perceived as dilutive [8]

Core Insights - Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) stock fell over 8% in pre-market trading despite reporting better-than-expected results for Q4 fiscal 2025, with non-GAAP earnings of 62 cents per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.1% and increasing 6.3% year over year [1] - HPE's revenues grew 14.4% year over year to $9.68 billion but missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.63%, driven primarily by the networking business [1] Segment Performance - The Server segment generated $4.5 billion in revenues, down 5% year over year due to delays in AI server shipments and reduced U.S. federal spending, with an operating profit margin of 9.8%, down 180 basis points from the previous year [3] - Networking revenues reached $2.8 billion, up 150% year over year, largely due to the addition of Juniper Networks, although the operating profit margin decreased to 23%, down 140 basis points [4] - The Hybrid Cloud division reported $1.4 billion in revenues, down 12% year over year, as HPE focused on higher-margin solutions, resulting in an operating profit margin of 5%, down from 7.8% [5] - The Financial Services segment recorded $889 million in revenues, flat year over year, with an operating margin of 11.5%, up 230 basis points [6] Operating Results - HPE's non-GAAP gross profit for Q4 fiscal 2025 was $3.52 billion, with a non-GAAP gross margin of 36.4%, up 550 basis points year over year [7] - The non-GAAP operating profit was $1.18 billion, with an operating margin of 12.2%, up 110 basis points from the previous year [7] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - HPE ended Q4 with $5.77 billion in cash and cash equivalents, up from $4.57 billion in the previous quarter [8] - The company generated $2.5 billion in cash from operating activities and produced $1.9 billion in free cash flow, both significantly higher than the prior year [8] Shareholder Returns - HPE returned $271 million to shareholders in Q4 through dividends and share repurchases, totaling $886 million for the full fiscal 2025 [9] Guidance for FY26 and Q1 - For Q1 fiscal 2026, HPE expects revenues between $9 billion and $9.4 billion, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate of 54 cents per share, indicating 10.2% year-over-year growth [12] - For full-year fiscal 2026, HPE forecasts revenue growth of 17-22% and projects non-GAAP diluted EPS of $2.25-$2.45, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.31 per share, indicating 21.5% year-over-year growth [14]

And some after hours action. Hila Packard Enterprise missing revenue expectations in Ulta topping earnings and revenue estimates. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley recently raised its 12-month S&P target to 7,800.So, as we mentioned before, Mike is feeling bullish. What is going to carry us to 7,800. >> It's really a continuation of this year's story.I mean, you know, we we had a view coming into the year that they were going to probably do the growth negative policy stuff first and it turned into sort of kitchen s ...

Core Viewpoint - Two Americans and two Chinese nationals are accused of illegally exporting advanced Nvidia AI chips to China, posing a threat to U.S. national security and violating export controls [1][2]. Group 1: Accusations and Legal Actions - The Department of Justice has charged four individuals with multiple counts, including conspiracy to violate the Export Control Reform Act, smuggling, and money laundering [2]. - The indictment alleges a coordinated effort to transship controlled Nvidia GPUs to China through falsified paperwork and misleading U.S. authorities [3][11]. - The defendants allegedly used a Tampa-based company, Janford Realtor LLC, as a front to purchase and export restricted Nvidia GPUs, despite the company not engaging in any real estate business [6]. Group 2: Export Scheme Details - The conspiracy reportedly took place from September 2023 to November 2025, involving illegal exports through third countries like Malaysia and Thailand to circumvent U.S. export controls [7]. - Four separate exports of Nvidia GPUs to China were involved, including approximately 400 Nvidia A100 processors and additional shipments of supercomputers and GPUs [10]. - The defendants received over $3.8 million in wire transfers from China to fund their operations [10]. Group 3: National Security Implications - The indictment highlights China's ambition to become a global leader in AI by 2030, utilizing advanced technology for military modernization and the development of weapons of mass destruction [14][15]. - The U.S. Attorney's Office emphasizes its commitment to safeguarding national security and holding accountable those involved in the illicit export of sensitive technology [16].

Morgan Stanley downgraded computer hardware makers because of the impact of soaring memory chip prices. Shares of Dell Computer, Hewlett Packard Enterprise and HP Inc. tumbled Monday. https://t.co/ooANwmmyTs ...

Market Overview - U.S. stock indexes are experiencing upward movement, with the S&P 500 rising by 0.4%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 85 points (0.2%), and the Nasdaq composite up by 0.7% [2][4] - The market has shown erratic trading patterns this week, fluctuating between gains and losses [2] Technology Sector Performance - Technology stocks are leading the market gains, particularly following Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) reporting a larger-than-expected profit increase for the latest quarter [3] - TSMC's CFO indicated strong demand for their advanced process technologies, which is crucial for the AI sector [3][4] - Nvidia's stock rose by 1.4%, contributing significantly to the S&P 500's performance as it remains Wall Street's most valuable stock [4] AI Stocks and Market Sentiment - AI stocks have been central to Wall Street's record-breaking performance this year, despite ongoing inflation and a slowing job market [5] - Concerns are emerging regarding a potential bubble in AI stocks, reminiscent of the dot-com bubble that burst in 2000 [5] Corporate Earnings and Expectations - U.S. companies are under pressure to deliver stronger profits following a 35% surge in the S&P 500 since April, with critics arguing that stock prices have become too expensive [7] - Salesforce's stock increased by 4.5% after announcing plans for over 10% compounded annual revenue growth [8] - J.B. Hunt Transport Services saw an 18.8% rise after exceeding Wall Street's profit expectations for the third quarter [8] International Market Trends - Asian and European markets showed positive trends, with South Korea's Kospi soaring by 2.5% amid hopes for a trade deal with the U.S. [10] - In China, indexes experienced slight changes, with a 0.1% increase in Shanghai and a 0.1% decrease in Hong Kong [11] Economic Indicators - A report indicated unexpected shrinkage in manufacturing activity in the mid-Atlantic region, providing limited insights into the economy for the Federal Reserve [12] - The U.S. government's shutdown is delaying critical economic updates, including unemployment claims and inflation reports [13] - Federal Reserve officials are considering the job market as a key factor in their decision-making, which may lead to interest rate cuts [14]