24 Feb 2026 08:34:35 ET │ 14 pages US Semiconductor Equipment SPIE Day 1 Takeaways CITI'S TAKE We hosted an investor dinner with Lam Research CFO & EVP Doug Bettinger and VP IR Ram Ganesh. Overall, management tone was positive with expectations for another relative WFE out-performance year driven by DRAM + foundry capacity with continued technology migrations in NAND and some new capacity. Dep/Etch SAM is expected to grow faster than WFE and Lam expects to hold 50%+ of the share. Lam's recent 2026 WFE view ...

M What's Changed? We revise up our 2026 forecast from $136bn (up 13% y/y) to $143bn (up 23%) and our 2027 forecast comes up from $161bn (up 19%) to $182bn (up 27%). For 2026, we revise up DRAM by $5bn, NAND by $2bn and leave foundry logic unchanged, while for 2027 we revise up DRAM by $9bn, foundry logic by $9bn, and NAND by $2bn. Numbers go higher & high (again). It's only been 1 month since we last raised numbers (Semiconductor Capital Equipment: Mid 4Q'25 WFE update, higher & higher (20 Jan 2026)) and ou ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **US Semiconductor Equipment** industry, specifically the capital expenditure (capex) updates of the **Big Three**: **TSMC**, **Samsung**, and **Intel**. [1] Core Insights and Arguments - The **Big Three** account for approximately **59%** of the projected **$115 billion** global **2026 Wafer Fabrication Equipment (WFE)** spending, which is expected to grow by **10% year-over-year**. The breakdown includes **30%** growth in **NAND**, **12%** in **DRAM**, and **6%** in **Foundry/Logic (F/L)**. [1] - The equipment sector is believed to be in **Phase 2 of an upcycle**, with expectations that **2026 WFE** spending could reach **$126 billion** under a bullish scenario. [1] - **TSMC** is anticipated to guide its **2026 capex** between **$46 billion** and **$48 billion**, with potential increases throughout the year, based on investor discussions suggesting a target of **$50 billion**. [1][2] - **Intel** is projected to maintain a **2025 gross capex** of **$18 billion**, with expectations for **2026** to be around **$16 billion**. Intel's capex is expected to stabilize as foundry operations improve, particularly for back-end customers. [1][3] - **Samsung** has indicated flexibility in its **2026 capex**, planning to increase investments in response to growing **AI** demand. In a related note, **Micron** has raised its **FY2026** net capex to **$20 billion**, reflecting a **45% year-over-year** growth. [1][4] Additional Important Information - The top-rated equipment picks for investment are **Lam Research Corp (LRCX)** and **Applied Materials Inc (AMAT)**. [1] - The earnings reports for the companies are scheduled as follows: **TSMC** on **January 15**, **Intel** on **January 22**, and **Samsung** on **January 29**. [2][3][4] - The report includes a disclaimer regarding potential conflicts of interest due to Citigroup's involvement with the companies mentioned, emphasizing that investors should consider this report as one of many factors in their investment decisions. [5][10][11]

Summary of Semiconductor Industry Outlook Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue its growth trajectory into 2026, with a forecasted sales increase of **18% YoY**, reaching **$917.8 billion**. This growth is attributed to a **13% increase in units** (excluding discretes) and a **5% increase in average selling prices (ASPs)** [7][40]. Key Companies and Recommendations - **Microchip Technology Inc. (MCHP)** is highlighted as the top pick due to its potential for significant upside, as its sales and margins have fallen the most from their peak. Other companies rated as "Buy" include **Broadcom (AVGO)**, **Analog Devices (ADI)**, **Micron Technology (MU)**, **NXP Semiconductors (NXPI)**, and **Texas Instruments (TXN)** [8][50]. AI and Semiconductor Dynamics - The AI supercycle is projected to persist into 2026, although the risk/reward profile is diminishing. Increased volatility is anticipated as **OpenAI bills** come due in the second half of 2026, raising concerns about debt related to AI infrastructure funding [1][2]. - Companies with lower exposure to OpenAI, such as **NVIDIA (NVDA)**, **AVGO**, and **MU**, are favored over those with higher exposure like **AMD** [2][12]. Analog Sector Recovery - The **Analog sector** is expected to experience a significant comeback, driven by low inventory levels, low supply growth, and depressed margins. Companies like MCHP, TXN, NXPI, and ADI are expected to benefit from this recovery, with MCHP projected to see gross margins expand by over **1000 basis points** [6][34][37]. DRAM Market Insights - **Micron Technology (MU)** is anticipated to see continued upside due to increasing DRAM prices, with forecasts indicating a **28% YoY increase** in DRAM ASPs for 2025 and a **53% YoY increase** for 2026. The DRAM pricing environment is supported by strong server demand and a tight supply situation [25][26][28]. Capital Expenditure and Market Trends - The **Wafer Fabrication Equipment (WFE)** market is projected to grow to **$115.2 billion** in 2026, with a bull case of **$126 billion**. **Lam Research** is identified as a top pick in this segment [5][31]. - The overall semiconductor sales growth in 2026 would mark the third consecutive year of nearly **20% YoY growth**, a trend not seen in the past thirty years [7][40]. EDA Stocks and Physical AI - **Electronic Design Automation (EDA)** stocks are viewed as a defensive play to gain exposure to Physical AI, with expected sales growth at a low double-digit CAGR, lagging behind the semiconductor sector's growth [43]. Conclusion - The semiconductor industry is poised for robust growth, particularly in the Analog and DRAM sectors, with key players like MCHP and MU expected to outperform. However, the increasing volatility in the AI space and the associated financial risks warrant careful monitoring.

Summary of SEMICON West Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Semiconductor Capital Equipment - **Event**: SEMICON West Conference held in Arizona from October 7-9, 2025 - **General Sentiment**: The conference highlighted excitement about competition driving industry growth in Wafer Fabrication Equipment (WFE) and testing, but also a cautious outlook for December quarter earnings [1][2] Key Takeaways 1. **Memory Pricing vs Capex**: - Increased bullishness on memory WFE due to better pricing and stronger bit demand - Industry participants expressed skepticism about overly positive memory WFE outlook - Micron's FY26 capex guidance and Kioxia's Kitakami Fab2 operation start were cited as validations [2][2][2] 2. **Market Share Dynamics**: - Each company presented its own market share gain narrative, with notable mentions including TEL, SCREEN, AMAT, and Veeco/Axcelis - Anticipation of competition driving the industry forward [2][2] 3. **China Market Dynamics**: - New Chinese customers were significant for WFE in 2023-2024, but orders have slowed, particularly in mature logic - Leading-edge Chinese customers still show strength, with fierce competition noted in trailing-edge segments [2][2] 4. **Test Intensity**: - Teradyne and Advantest are competing for memory market share, with increased test insertions driven by a focus on yield and time to market - Expansion beyond mobile testing into new areas like HBM testing [2][2] 5. **Broader Growth Drivers**: - MKS and AEIS highlighted growth in segments outside semiconductors, particularly in PCB chemistry and data centers, benefiting from AI-related demand [2][2] Company-Specific Insights - **AEIS**: - Moderated WFE outlook due to softer trailing-edge logic demand but expects strong DRAM WFE market growth [6][6] - **Advantest**: - Focused on expanding offerings across the test value chain, leveraging AI for optimization [7][7] - **AMAT**: - Addressed concerns regarding China and GAA market share, emphasizing a timing issue for the $500 million miss in guidance [8][8] - **AMKR**: - Ground-breaking announcement for a new facility in Arizona with a $7 billion investment, aligned with TSMC [9][9] - **Lasertec**: - Noted growth in memory customers and increased inquiries from Chinese customers amid tighter restrictions [11][11] - **MKS**: - No indications of a significant ramp in memory demand, but optimistic about tool demand continuing to drive growth [12][12] - **SCREEN**: - Observed increasing cleaning intensity and cautious optimism for medium-term growth [13][13] - **Teradyne**: - Highlighted the importance of test coverage and announced new products to meet growing networking demands [14][15] - **Tokyo Electron (TEL)**: - Cautioned against over-optimism regarding memory prices and emphasized a focus on leading-edge customers [16][16] - **Veeco**: - Discussed the strategic merger with Axcelis to tackle AI-driven market demands [17][17] Additional Insights - **General Market Sentiment**: The conference underscored a cautious optimism regarding the semiconductor market, with varying dynamics in different segments and regions, particularly concerning China [2][2][2]

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures experienced a slight decline early on October 7, 2025, following a strong rally that pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to record highs [6][20] - The pullback comes after a four-week winning streak, as investors consider extended valuations, political gridlock in Washington, and the potential for a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut [7][19] Technology Sector - Tech stocks are in the spotlight, with AMD shares surging over 25% due to a significant AI chip partnership with OpenAI [3][20] - Tesla's stock rose more than 5% on excitement surrounding its latest self-driving update and hints of a Model Y refresh [3][20] Commodities - Gold prices reached record levels, with spot gold hitting $3,962.63 per ounce and futures touching $3,985.30 per ounce, driven by safe-haven demand amid policy uncertainty [4][18] - The 10-year Treasury yield increased to 4.16%, indicating persistent inflation and cautious optimism [4][16] Market Sentiment - Analysts describe the market as upbeat but fragile, with rising hopes for rate cuts, although valuations appear stretched [4][20] - Key themes for the week include the impact of the Federal Reserve's commentary, effects of the government shutdown, upcoming earnings season, and concerns over high tech valuations [19][20] Premarket Activity - Leading premarket gainers include AMD (+37.49%), Tesla (+0.60%), and several others, reflecting strong momentum and recent news [13][10] - Notable premarket losers include Revvity Inc (-9.86%) and Moody's Corporation (-6.03%), facing selling pressure due to negative news and earnings misses [17][14]

Summary of Semiconductor Capital Equipment Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **Semiconductor Capital Equipment** industry, particularly in **North America**. - The **2026 Wafer Fabrication Equipment (WFE)** market forecast has been revised from a growth of **5%** to **10%**, with the new forecast set at **$128 billion** compared to the previous **$122 billion** [1][4]. Key Companies Discussed 1. **Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT)** - Upgraded to **Overweight (OW)** with a new price target of **$209** from **$172**. - CY26 EPS forecast raised from **$9.58** to **$10.45**. - AMAT is expected to benefit significantly from DRAM growth, with a **3:1 bull:bear skew** in its favor [3][24][28]. 2. **Lam Research Corp (LAM)** - Upgraded to **Equal-weight (EW)** with a new price target of **$125** from **$92**. - CY26 EPS forecast increased from **$5.12** to **$5.43**. - Despite a positive outlook, LAM is expected to underperform WFE growth slightly [3][25][35]. 3. **KLA Corp (KLA)** - Downgraded to **Equal-weight (EW)** with a new price target of **$1,093** from **$928**. - CY26 EPS forecast raised from **$37.11** to **$39.03**. - KLA's valuation is at a **30% premium** compared to AMAT and LAM, making further premium expansion difficult [3][26][40]. Core Insights - **Memory Market Dynamics**: - The **memory WFE** forecast has been adjusted, with DRAM expected to reach **$34.9 billion** in 2026, reflecting an **18%** increase year-over-year, and NAND projected at **$13.8 billion**, a **35%** increase [9][13]. - Improved pricing conditions in both DRAM and NAND have been noted, with significant orders from hyperscalers driving demand [10][11]. - **Investment Trends**: - There is a shift in capital expenditure (capex) priorities towards DRAM, which may delay NAND capex improvements [2][17]. - The overall sentiment in the semiconductor capital equipment sector is cautiously optimistic, with risks skewed to the upside if major players like Intel and Samsung accelerate their foundry investments [2][11]. Additional Important Points - **Market Forecasts**: - The WFE revenue is expected to grow from **$117.171 billion** in 2025 to **$128.304 billion** in 2026, with a projected growth rate of **10%** [6]. - The semiconductor revenue is forecasted to increase from **$736.304 billion** in 2025 to **$809.193 billion** in 2026 [6]. - **Regional Insights**: - North America is projected to contribute **$12.830 billion** to the WFE market in 2026, maintaining a steady growth trajectory [8]. - **Valuation Metrics**: - AMAT currently trades at **18x CY26 MSe**, while LAM and KLA trade at **23x** and **27x**, respectively, indicating a valuation discount for AMAT that is expected to narrow as DRAM growth accelerates [28][32]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, highlighting the revised forecasts, company-specific insights, and broader industry trends.

Summary of Semiconductor Capital Equipment Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **Semiconductor Capital Equipment** industry, specifically in **North America** [7][8]. Key Points Memory Pricing and Demand - **Memory pricing** has improved significantly, with large orders from hyperscalers for **eSSD** and **DDR5** leading to higher prices in Q4 [3][4]. - The supply-demand dynamics have tightened, particularly in **NAND**, due to a shift from **HDD** to **eSSD** storage applications, causing NAND suppliers to take wafers offline for capacity upgrades [3][4]. Forecasts for 2026 - The initial forecast for **Memory WFE** (Wafer Front End) in 2026 was **$43.8 billion**, but a bull case scenario suggests it could reach **$50 billion**, representing a **25% year-over-year increase** [4][9]. - **DRAM WFE** is projected at **$35 billion** (+18% y/y) and **NAND WFE** at **$15 billion** (+42% y/y) under the bull case scenario [4][9]. Impact on Earnings - The bull case for memory pricing implies a **7% upside** for **LAM Research** (LAM) and a **5% upside** for **Applied Materials** (AMAT) in their **CY26 EPS** forecasts [5][9]. - LAM's estimates could rise from **$21.5 billion/$5.12** to **$23.0 billion/$5.50**, while AMAT's could increase from **$29.4 billion/$9.58** to **$30.6 billion/$10.09** [5][9]. Market Positioning - LAM is currently trading at **21-22x** its memory bull case EPS, while AMAT trades at **16-17x**, indicating a **23% discount** to LAM [5]. - The analysts acknowledge a poorly timed downgrade for LAM just before a strengthening in NAND market conditions [5]. Bit Demand Growth - **DRAM bit demand growth** is expected to be **22%** (up from 18%), while **NAND bit demand growth** is projected at **26%** (with eSSD demand up **50%** y/y) [9][21]. - This growth is expected to lead to significant increases in WFE for both DRAM and NAND [9][21]. Utilization Challenges - Utilization rates present a headwind to the NAND WFE bull case, as companies will need to upgrade capacity to meet eSSD demand without requiring new greenfield investments in 2026 [12][21]. Risk Factors - Risks to the upside include market share gains in DRAM outpacing WFE growth and AMAT capturing market share in logic technology [36]. - Risks to the downside involve potential losses in market share to competitors and widespread restrictions on equipment shipments to China [36][57]. Conclusion - The semiconductor capital equipment industry is poised for growth driven by improved memory pricing and demand, particularly in NAND and DRAM sectors. However, challenges related to utilization and market dynamics in China could impact overall performance. The outlook for LAM and AMAT remains cautiously optimistic, with potential for upward revisions in earnings forecasts based on market conditions.

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of using data to understand corporate revenue distribution and the sensitivity of companies to tariffs, providing a comprehensive view of regional income and potential risks associated with trade policies [3][5]. Group 1: Regional Classification Data - Bloomberg is launching a regional classification fundamental data product to empower investors by providing a detailed view of company revenue by region, utilizing both reported and forecasted data [3]. - The product aims to create a multi-level standardized structure covering various regions and specific countries, offering insights into company revenue distribution [3][5]. Group 2: Sensitivity Scoring - A sensitivity scoring system has been developed to assess companies' exposure to tariff risks based on their revenue distribution across different countries and industries [5][6]. - The top ten companies with the highest tariff sensitivity scores from the Bloomberg U.S. Large Cap Index (B500) have been identified, which helps investors evaluate the potential impact of tariffs on their portfolios [6]. Group 3: Index Comparison - A bottom-up approach is used to compare the sensitivity scores of different indices, revealing that the European index (EMEAP) is most sensitive to current macroeconomic conditions [7][9]. - The analysis provides valuable insights for investors to enhance their risk management capabilities by understanding how different regions and industries are affected by new tariff policies [7]. Group 4: Cost Risk Analysis - The article highlights the importance of considering cost risks alongside revenue risks, particularly in industries like automotive, where tariffs on imported components can significantly impact profit margins [9][10]. - By combining sensitivity scores with supply chain data, investors can gain a deeper understanding of how global trade dynamics affect companies, identifying potential risks and opportunities [9][10]. Group 5: Industry Focus - Automotive - The automotive industry is used as a case study to illustrate how financial data can be leveraged to construct risk/opportunity maps based on profit margins and tariff sensitivity [12][14]. - The analysis of companies like Renault shows that indirect cost risks from suppliers can significantly affect production costs, even if the company itself is not directly impacted by tariff policies [12][15].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the semiconductor capital equipment industry is "In-Line" [4]. Core Insights - The 2025 China WFE (Wafer Fabrication Equipment) forecast has been revised from a decline of 12% year-over-year to a decline of 3%, with the 2025/2026 WFE forecast adjusted from $104 billion/$109 billion to $109 billion/$110 billion [1][10]. - China is expected to show stronger performance in the second half of 2025 compared to the first half, despite previous concerns about the sustainability of WFE demand due to low utilization rates outside major players [2][11]. - Equipment imports into China decreased by 4% year-over-year from January to May 2025, but are anticipated to pick up starting in July, mirroring the growth seen in the second half of 2024 [2][11]. Summary by Sections WFE Forecast - The WFE revenue forecast for 2025 has been increased to $109 billion (up 6% year-over-year) from $104 billion, while the 2026 forecast is slightly raised to $110 billion (up 1%) from $109 billion [1][4]. - The WFE revenue for 2025 is projected to be $109,058 million, with a year-over-year change of 6% [7]. Company-Specific Revisions - Revenue contributions from TSMC for KLA and AMAT have been revised upwards for 2025 and 2026, with KLA's contribution increasing from $2.65 billion/$2.96 billion to $2.76 billion/$3.05 billion, and AMAT's from $5.60 billion/$5.26 billion to $5.93 billion/$5.38 billion [3][22]. - The revenue forecast for KLA in 2025 has been adjusted from $12.1 billion to $12.3 billion, and for AMAT from $28.3 billion to $28.7 billion [22][27]. Market Dynamics - The semiconductor capital equipment market is expected to see a significant uptick in demand driven by logic customers in China, with the region remaining the largest for WFE demand despite challenges [10][15]. - The overall sentiment indicates that state-subsidy-induced spending in China will continue to support equipment purchases, even with low utilization rates among smaller players [21][19]. Regional Insights - The WFE by region shows that China will continue to dominate the market, with significant contributions expected from Taiwan and Korea as well [9][17]. - The forecast indicates that while Taiwan and Korea will drive growth, China remains the largest region for WFE demand [15][17].