February 3, 2026 04:47 AM GMT Broadcom Inc. | North America AVGO FAQ: What will it take for the stock to outperform? Following our recent, similar NVDA note, we focus on what needs to happen for AVGO stock to resume its outperformance - clarity on competitive dynamics with TPU & margins on racks; we see a strong multiyear growth path. Key Takeaways We have been somewhat surprised at AVGO's underperformance YTD after a weak close to 2025, and similar to NVIDIA, one of our biggest FAQs so far this year has be ...

January 29, 2026 04:48 AM GMT NVIDIA Corp. | North America NVDA: FAQs on what it will take for the stock to outperform Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework NVIDIA's recent underperformance has happened while near- term expectations remain high, which is different; while there is a wall of worry to climb, we think a strong Vera Rubin ramp will mitigate any share concerns, and expect to see outperformance from here. Key Takeaways We have been somewhat surprised a ...

Intel Corporation Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Intel Corporation (Ticker: INTC.O) - **Industry**: Semiconductors - **Market Cap**: $263.778 billion - **Price Target**: Increased from $38.00 to $41.00 Key Points Financial Performance - **4Q Financials**: Non-GAAP revenue of $13.874 billion, exceeding estimates of $13.438 billion and $13.321 billion [doc id='13'][doc id='36'] - **Segment Performance**: - Client Computing (CCG) revenue: $8.193 billion (down 7% year-over-year) - Data Center & AI (DCAI) revenue: $4.737 billion (up 9% year-over-year) - Intel Foundry Services (IFS) revenue: $4.507 billion (up 4% year-over-year) [doc id='13'] - **Gross Margin**: 37.9%, down 206 basis points quarter-over-quarter and 418 basis points year-over-year, but above estimates [doc id='13'] - **EPS**: Reported at $0.15, above the Street estimate of $0.08 and Morgan Stanley's estimate of $0.06 [doc id='13'] Guidance and Future Outlook - **Next Quarter Guidance**: Revenue expected at $12.2 billion (down 10.8% quarter-over-quarter and 3.7% year-over-year), below Street estimates [doc id='14'] - **Gross Margin Guidance**: Projected at 34.5%, below previous estimates [doc id='14'] - **EPS Guidance**: Expected at $0.00, below Street estimates of $0.06 [doc id='14'] - **Long-term Outlook**: Projected revenue for CY2026 at $53.097 billion with a gross margin of 39.0% and EPS of $0.63 [doc id='15'] Market Dynamics - **Supply Constraints**: Ongoing supply issues are impacting revenue growth, with no growth expected in the second half of 2025 [doc id='3'][doc id='4'] - **Competitive Landscape**: AMD has captured all unit growth due to Intel's supply constraints, raising concerns about further share loss [doc id='4'] - **Server Market**: Strong demand exists, but Intel's supply growth is lagging behind competitors [doc id='10'] Strategic Considerations - **Foundry Business**: Intel's foundry strategy faces challenges, including customer skepticism and competition from TSMC and Samsung [doc id='12'] - **Investment in Technology**: Management emphasizes the need for clarity in strategic direction and regaining performance leadership in server CPUs [doc id='22'] - **Partnerships**: Recent partnerships, such as with NVIDIA, are viewed positively but require execution to unlock value [doc id='16'] Risks and Concerns - **Execution Risks**: Uncertainty in the CPU roadmap and foundry strategy could impact stock performance [doc id='19'] - **Market Sentiment**: The stock's recent rally may be driven by geopolitical enthusiasm rather than fundamental improvements [doc id='17'] - **Competitive Pressures**: Continued competition from AMD could lead to further share losses and pressure on average selling prices (ASPs) [doc id='34'] Conclusion - **Investment Rating**: Currently rated as Equal-weight, with cautious sentiment due to stock appreciation and ongoing execution risks [doc id='15'][doc id='22'] - **Price Target Adjustment**: Price target raised to $41.00 based on revised EPS estimates and market conditions [doc id='18']

Group 1 - Michael Burry endorsed Ben Affleck's critique of AI, indicating agreement with Affleck's skepticism about the technology [1][2] - Affleck criticized large language models like ChatGPT, stating their output is fundamentally "not reliable" and incapable of replacing genuine human creativity [2][3] - Affleck noted that while there are narrow use-cases for AI, he doubts it will produce truly meaningful writing or generate entire films independently [3][4] Group 2 - Burry has warned about a potential AI bubble burst, criticizing tech giants like Microsoft and Alphabet for heavy investments in infrastructure that may soon become obsolete [5] - Burry is betting against NVIDIA, labeling it as a "purest play" on AI and highlighting its reliance on AI infrastructure [5] - Burry accused leading AI companies of "suspicious revenue recognition" and pointed out issues with their financial practices, describing them as indicative of fraud [6]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call focuses on thematic investing strategies and predictions for 2026, led by Morgan Stanley Research, emphasizing four key themes: Tech Diffusion, The Future of Energy, The Multipolar World, and Societal Shifts [3][22]. Core Themes and Predictions 1. **Key Themes for 2026**: - **Tech Diffusion**: Continued acceleration in AI capabilities and adoption across various sectors [3][35]. - **The Future of Energy**: Anticipated growth in energy demand, particularly driven by AI infrastructure, with a projected 10% increase in US energy consumption over the next decade [36]. - **The Multipolar World**: Shift towards localized supply chains and reduced dependency on global trade, with significant implications for national security and economic policies [32][34]. - **Societal Shifts**: Evolution of the Longevity theme to encompass broader societal impacts, including AI-driven job displacement and changing consumer preferences [4][38]. 2. **Performance Metrics**: - In 2025, thematic stock categories achieved an average price increase of 38%, outperforming the S&P 500 and MSCI World by 16% and 27%, respectively [8][23]. 3. **Thematic Predictions for 2026**: - Non-linear improvements in large language models (LLMs) and a systematic shortage of computational power due to rising demand [15][16]. - An aggressive US policy agenda aimed at reducing dependency on China for critical materials and enhancing domestic manufacturing capabilities [18]. - Increased focus on energy costs and their implications for data center growth and local energy policies [18]. Additional Insights - **AI and Employment**: The theme of Societal Shifts includes a focus on re-skilling initiatives and policy interventions to address job losses due to AI adoption [21][38]. - **Investment Opportunities**: The intersection of themes presents new investment opportunities, particularly in sectors that align with the evolving geopolitical landscape and technological advancements [39]. - **Regional Performance**: APAC stocks have shown strong thematic alpha across various categories, while North American stocks excelled in AI and defense-related themes [26]. Conclusion - Morgan Stanley's thematic investing framework is positioned as a powerful tool for identifying attractive investment opportunities amid market volatility, with a comprehensive focus on the interplay between technology, energy, geopolitics, and societal changes [3][8][22].

Group 1 - TSMC reported a 35% increase in net profit for Q4, indicating strong and growing demand for AI, particularly due to its exclusive manufacturing of NVIDIA GPUs [1] - The results validate the business models of neocloud providers like CoreWeave and Nebius, as they secure significant allocations of NVIDIA's upcoming architectures [2] - TSMC's gross margin of 62.3% demonstrates that the AI industry is not only growing but also achieving substantial profitability, alleviating fears of an "AI bubble" [3] Group 2 - TSMC's High-Performance Computing segment constitutes 55% of its total revenue, indicating that supply constraints, rather than demand, are the primary growth limitation for neocloud providers [4] - Record manufacturing yields and capacity expansion enable CoreWeave and Nebius to meet their multibillion-dollar backlogs [5] - TSMC's increased capital expenditure forecast for 2026, projected between $52 billion and $56 billion, signals ongoing strong demand for AI chips from tech companies [5]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Semiconductors, particularly in North America, with emphasis on AI and memory strength [1][7] - **Market Dynamics**: The semiconductor ecosystem is being tested by AI strength, with significant growth expected in AI-related revenues [1][2] Company-Specific Insights NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) - **Market Position**: NVIDIA is expected to maintain a dominant market share despite overstated threats from competitors [2] - **Revenue Growth**: Projected revenue for FY27 is $329.829 billion, reflecting a 55% year-over-year change, with a gross margin of 74.6% [10] - **Product Demand**: There is significant customer anxiety regarding the ability to procure NVIDIA products, particularly the Vera Rubin model [2] - **Estimates Revision**: Estimates for NVIDIA's revenues have been raised, with a target price increase from $235 to $250, based on a new EPS estimate of $9.57 [9][66] Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) - **Revenue Projections**: Broadcom's ASIC revenue is forecasted to be $27.210 billion in FY2026 and $59.475 billion in FY2027, with a price target increase from $409 to $443 [13][15] - **Market Dynamics**: The company is experiencing strong demand for its products, particularly in AI and memory sectors, with a notable increase in TPU supply chain checks [13][17] - **Risks**: Potential risks include competition from Google's Tensor processor and architectural challenges faced by Meta in utilizing Broadcom's products [12][11] Memory Market Insights - **Supply Constraints**: There is an ongoing memory shortage, particularly in DDR5 and NAND markets, with high demand from cloud buyers and OEMs [16][18] - **Market Dynamics**: The memory supply has shifted to high-value users, leading to a stark supply tightness that is not artificial [16] - **Future Outlook**: The memory shortage is expected to persist, with potential risks of demand destruction as prices rise [17] General Market Trends - **AI Influence**: The strength of AI is impacting not only specialty back-end capacity but also front-end wafer supply and memory availability [20] - **Server Market**: The general-purpose server market is strong, with AMD gaining market share while Intel struggles to keep up [21] - **China Localization**: The Chinese semiconductor industry is striving for self-sufficiency, with significant investments in legacy technologies, although advanced technology remains constrained [24][25] Investment Recommendations - **NVIDIA**: Overweight rating with a price target of $250, reflecting strong growth potential in AI and data center revenues [59][66] - **Broadcom**: Overweight rating with a price target of $443, supported by strong AI growth and recovery in core semiconductor businesses [75][81] - **Micron Technology**: Top pick with a price target of $338, driven by improving DRAM fundamentals and AI demand [94][98] Conclusion - The semiconductor industry is poised for significant growth driven by AI, with both NVIDIA and Broadcom positioned to capitalize on this trend. However, supply constraints in memory and competition from emerging technologies present risks that investors should monitor closely.

Summary of NVIDIA Corp. Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: NVIDIA Corp. - **Industry**: Semiconductors - **Market Cap**: $4,606.88 million - **Stock Rating**: Overweight - **Price Target**: $220.00 - **Current Price (as of Nov 19, 2025)**: $186.52 - **52-Week Range**: $212.19 - $86.62 [6][68] Key Financial Highlights - **Revenue for October Quarter (OctQ)**: $57 billion, exceeding guidance by $3 billion, marking one of the largest revenue beats in semiconductor history [2][8] - **Gross Margin**: 73.6% for OctQ, with guidance for January Quarter (JanQ) slightly ahead at 75% [10][8] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Reported at $1.30, up from $1.05 in the previous quarter [10][8] - **JanQ Revenue Guidance**: $65 billion, ahead of consensus estimates of $61.8 billion, representing an incremental $8 billion [8][10] Growth Drivers - **Product Transition**: The transition to the Blackwell architecture is expected to drive significant revenue growth, with projections of $500 billion in total revenue from Blackwell and Rubin through CY26 [2][3] - **AI Market**: The company is optimistic about the growth in AI applications, with investments in OpenAI seen as strategic to enhance the Nvidia ecosystem [3][4] - **Gaming Sales**: Anticipated acceleration in gaming sales as GPU-based AI PCs gain traction [13] Strategic Insights - **Platform Shifts**: Jensen Huang, CEO, highlighted three simultaneous platform shifts: 1. Transition from CPU to GPU 2. Generative AI impacting existing applications 3. Generative AI creating new business models [3] - **Concerns Addressed**: Huang addressed concerns regarding market bubbles and the sustainability of AI capital expenditures, emphasizing the need for infrastructure investment to support growth [3][4] Risks and Challenges - **Input Costs**: Concerns over rising input costs, particularly for leading-edge wafers and DRAM, though Nvidia aims to maintain gross margins in the mid-70s [2] - **AI Ecosystem Viability**: Investor concerns regarding the sustainability of AI capital expenditures and the potential for reduced GPU purchases if AI end markets do not materialize as expected [4][13] Market Position - **Competitive Landscape**: Nvidia faces competition from AMD, which could re-emerge as a viable GPU competitor [13] - **Cloud Market Dynamics**: The ability of cloud customers outside of Google to develop competitive custom hardware poses a risk to Nvidia's market share [13] Conclusion NVIDIA Corp. continues to demonstrate strong financial performance and growth potential driven by its strategic investments in AI and product transitions. However, the company must navigate rising input costs and competitive pressures in the semiconductor industry to sustain its growth trajectory.

Group 1 - Investor Steve Eisman disagrees with Michael Burry's concerns regarding the accounting practices of major technology companies related to their AI infrastructure spending, suggesting the issue is not as significant as Burry claims [1][2][5] - Burry has raised alarms about companies like Meta Platforms Inc. and Oracle Corp. potentially overstating their earnings by 26.9% and 20.8% respectively by 2028 due to changes in depreciation schedules [4][5] - Eisman acknowledges Burry's calculations but believes that the long-term impact of these accounting changes on AI investments will not be meaningful [5][6] Group 2 - The critical question surrounding AI spending is the returns and cost savings that these substantial investments will generate, which remains uncertain for the time being [6] - Burry has expressed dissatisfaction with the performance of his hedge fund, Scion Asset Management, indicating a disconnect with market trends and valuations [6][7] - Burry has hinted at a new development set to begin on November 25, 2025, suggesting a shift in focus to "much better things" [7]

Summary of NVIDIA Corp. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA.O) - **Industry**: Semiconductors - **Market Cap**: $4,615.28 million - **Current Stock Price**: $186.86 (as of November 13, 2025) - **Price Target**: Increased from $210.00 to $220.00 [1][6][26] Key Points Market Performance and Expectations - The market has improved significantly over the last 45 days, leading to expectations of strong quarterly results as the Blackwell product line ramps up [1][3] - NVIDIA's stock has performed well but has lagged behind AI peers, which is anticipated to change [1][10] Demand and Supply Dynamics - Industry checks indicate a material acceleration in demand, with NVIDIA resolving previous supply chain issues [3][11] - Growth bottlenecks are now more related to complementary hardware (storage, memory, servers) rather than NVIDIA's production capabilities [3][18] - Positive demand signals from customers and suppliers suggest accelerating growth, contrary to consensus expectations that growth has peaked [11][14] Financial Projections - Revenue estimates for the upcoming quarters have been raised, with projections of $55.0 billion for October and $63.1 billion for January, marking the highest sequential revenue growth in the industry’s history [22][27] - FY27 estimates have been increased from $278.0 billion/$6.59 EPS to $298.5 billion/$7.11 EPS, reflecting strong demand and backlog [22][26] Competitive Landscape - NVIDIA's Blackwell remains the preferred AI chip, with strong demand signals noted [10][21] - Despite potential share loss to competitors like AMD, NVIDIA's product leadership is expected to remain solid [21][31] - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing AI market, with significant revenue potential from data centers and generative AI solutions [31][34] Risks and Constraints - While there are no immediate shipment constraints, potential risks include power availability and supply chain issues related to memory and optics [18][21] - The company is cautious about future forecasts, maintaining a conservative approach compared to peers [20][21] Investment Thesis - The stock is rated as Overweight, with a strong conviction in upward revisions to estimates due to NVIDIA's competitive position and growth potential in the AI sector [28][31] - The price target reflects a valuation that is a premium to the semiconductor group but a discount to large-cap AI peers, indicating confidence in NVIDIA's growth trajectory [26][34] Conclusion - NVIDIA is expected to continue its market leadership in the semiconductor industry, driven by strong demand for AI and data center solutions, with financial projections indicating robust growth in the coming years [31][34]