德国经济部长：天然气储存设施的运行正在增加，目前储存容量约为50%。 ...

2025 年 07 月 01 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：86 分（过热） 最近一年大盘走势 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 (%) 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（过热） 今日热点主题：储存、能源金属、稳定币 1、储存主题：据《科创板日报》报道，继韩系两大存储 原厂先后放出 DDR4 停产时间，美光确定已向客户发出信件通 知 DDR4 将停产，预计未来 2~3 个季度陆续停止出货。Trend Force 数据显示，5 月 DDR4 单月涨幅 53%，创 2017 年以来最 大涨幅。相关标的：江波龙（ 301308 ）、兆易创新 （603586） 2、能源金属主题：刚果金公布，2025 年 6 月 21 日起， 战略矿产市场监管局(ARECOMS)董事会采取了重大监管措施， 鉴于市场上库存量持续高企，已决定将临时禁令的期限自本 决定生效之日起再延长三个月，适用于刚果所有源自采矿的 钴 出 口 。 相 关 标 的 ： 华 友 钴 业 （ 60379 ...

国际原子能机构总干事格罗西：伊朗表示已对浓缩铀储存地点采取"保护措施"。现场有废墟，可能存在 未引爆弹药，这些并非常规检查。 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the current market sentiment score is 85, categorizing it as "overheated," suggesting a strong upward trend in the market supported by recent improvements in sentiment and policy [6][10]. - Key themes identified include storage, energy metals, and stablecoins, with specific companies highlighted for potential investment opportunities [7]. Market Sentiment - The market sentiment temperature indicator shows a score of 85, indicating an "overheated" market, which typically suggests caution for investors as high sentiment can lead to market corrections [10][21]. - Historical sentiment trends indicate that when the sentiment score is below or near 30, the market tends to find support, while scores above 90 may present resistance [10]. Hot Themes Tracking - **Storage Theme**: Major manufacturers are phasing out DDR4 production, leading to a significant price increase of 53% in May, the highest since 2017. Relevant companies include Jiangbolong (301308) and Zhaoyi Innovation (603586) [7]. - **Energy Metals Theme**: The Democratic Republic of Congo has extended a temporary ban on cobalt exports due to high inventory levels, impacting companies like Huayou Cobalt (603799) and Tianqi Lithium (002466) [7]. - **Stablecoin Theme**: The People's Bank of China discussed the transformation of monetary policy and the rise of digital currencies at the Lujiazui Forum, highlighting companies such as Sifang Jingchuang (300468) and Jingbeifang (002987) as relevant players [7]. Capital Flow Analysis - The report lists the top ten stocks with significant net inflows, with Dongfang Caifu (300059) leading at approximately 1.31 billion, followed by Dongxin Heping (002017) and Guoxuan High-Tech (002074) [11]. - Conversely, the top ten stocks with net outflows include Sifang Jingchuang (300468) with a net outflow of approximately -879.77 million, indicating investor caution towards these stocks [13]. Industry Insights - The report highlights the top industries by net inflow, with the electric equipment sector leading at approximately 250.86 million, followed by the automotive and non-bank financial sectors [17]. - The report also notes industries with significant net outflows, including defense and military, indicating potential investor concerns in these sectors [22].

欧盟达成一份协议，将在天然气储存目标方面向成员国提供更多灵活性。 ...

地处陕西河南交界地带的"千年金矿"争议，再起波澜。 近日，河南郑州铁路运输法院重审一审宣判，陕西潼关县鑫源矿业有限公司（下称"潼关鑫源矿业"）党 西北、舒茂生等11名员工获罪，罪名包括非法采矿罪、非法储存爆炸物罪。他们录得的有期徒刑从1年2 个月至4年6个月不等，均为实刑。 同时，郑州铁路运输法院对此11人还处以总计334.5万元的罚金，以及没收和追缴"违法所得"超过4700 万元。 上述11名被告人全部提起上诉，请求二审法院改判无罪。 他们上诉的理由包括，潼关鑫源矿业公司涉案的采矿地点到底是在陕西境内还是河南境内存在很大的争 议，河南法院在行政区域边界争议未解决前强行管辖，违反法定程序；同时，本案的关键证据之一，河 南省地质矿产勘查开发局第一地质矿产调查院为河南警方做出的两份《地理位置界定书》亦涉嫌伪造。 此前的2025年1月22日，经济观察报刊发《争夺"千年金矿"——豫陕两省究竟谁在越界采金？》一文， 报道了在陕西河南交界处的小秦岭一带的金矿开采中，豫陕两省数次动用警力，分别对对方省份的数十 位金矿员工采取强制措施之事。 2022年11月至2023年3月，河南三门峡灵宝市警方，陆续将陕西潼关鑫源矿业员工舒 ...

--鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：55 分（中性） 2025 年 06 月 19 日 双融日报 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 | 1、《双融日报》2025-06-18 | | --- | | 2、《双融日报》2025-06-17 | | 3、《双融日报》2025-06-16 | ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（中性） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 55 分，市场情绪处于"中性"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1。 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：储存、机器人、稳定币 1、储存主题：据《科创板日报》报道，继韩系两大存储 原厂先后放出 DDR4 停产时间，美光确定已向客户发出信件通 知 DDR4 将停产，预计未来 2~3 个季度陆续停止出货。Trend Force 数据显示，5 月 DDR4 单月涨幅 53%，创 2017 年以来最 大涨幅。相关标的：江波龙（ 301308 ）、兆易创新 （603586） 2、机器人主 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the current state of global markets, particularly focusing on equities and fixed income, with insights into macroeconomic conditions and geopolitical factors affecting market dynamics [1][2][3]. Core Insights 1. **Market Performance**: The S&P 500 index has slightly declined, remaining 3% below its February highs, indicating mixed market sentiment influenced by macroeconomic data and geopolitical tensions [1][2]. 2. **Debt and Deficit Concerns**: There is a growing concern regarding debt sustainability, which is seen as a significant structural risk. The macro environment suggests that risky assets are still performing well despite these concerns [6][8]. 3. **US Economic Growth**: The US economy is projected to grow at approximately 1.25% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026, indicating a deceleration but not a significant downturn. Consumer spending remains resilient despite uncertainties [12][13]. 4. **Equity Market Dynamics**: The equity market is perceived as reflecting future productivity growth driven by AI advancements. However, there are concerns about the quality of signals from certain tech stocks, particularly non-profitable ones [6][20]. 5. **Japanese Equities**: The outlook for Japanese equities is mixed, with potential for growth but also risks associated with rising bond yields. Japan has underperformed compared to Europe and China [21]. 6. **Chinese Shareholder Returns**: The trend of increasing shareholder returns has reached China, with a notable rise in dividend payout ratios. However, this is not seen as a strong enough reason to heavily invest in China [22][23]. Additional Important Points 1. **High Yield Bonds**: US high yield bonds have shown strong performance recently, with yields near three-month lows and minimal down days in the past 15 sessions [25]. 2. **M&A Activity**: Contrary to claims that the M&A market is dead, large-scale M&A activity has increased by approximately 15% year-over-year for deals over $500 million [27]. 3. **Gold and Silver Trends**: Gold prices have continued to rise despite increasing real interest rates, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics. Silver has also recently broken out [35][38]. 4. **Market Sentiment**: The sentiment around earnings has shown a V-shaped recovery globally, particularly in the US, reflecting improved earnings quality as the reporting season progressed [30]. Conclusion - The overall market sentiment remains cautious but optimistic, with significant attention on debt sustainability, economic growth projections, and evolving trends in equity markets. The interplay between macroeconomic factors and market performance will be crucial to monitor in the coming months [11][12][19].

5年远期通胀盈亏平衡点自2022年春季以来一直保持在稳定的区间内，表明市场对长期通胀复苏的担忧有限。 在通胀压力、债务可持续性忧虑和科技股主导的背景下，高盛对冲基金业务主管Tony Pasquariello分享的16张图表揭示了当前市场状态： 通胀回升风险被市场提前消化、长端利率高企、美元美债明显背离、科技巨头主导的盈利增长以及核能、国防等板块的爆发性表现，构成了一个"棘手、不均 衡但充满机会"的投资环境。 市场已提前消化通胀反弹 尽管近期通胀趋势令人鼓舞，但高盛预测关税实施将导致核心PCE从目前的2.5%升至年底的3.6%。然而，市场似乎已将此视为一次性事件。 美元面临的一个核心挑战是：在一系列估值模型中，它仍然相当昂贵。 这可能解释了为何美国30年期实际利率与美元走势之间出现了分化。 地产板块面临复杂前景 美国房地产建筑商股票呈现出令人困惑的图景。一方面，长端利率风险和美国住房市场供需技术面疲软对这些股票构成威胁；另一方面，尽管历史波动性大且 经历过惊人跌幅，长期牛市趋势仍然令人印象深刻，显示出这一领域的韧性与复杂性。 债务可持续性仍令人担忧 大部分美国名义利率曲线在过去几年保持在相似区间，但长端利率仍是 ...

这实际上反映了法币体系的内在逻辑。 1971年布雷顿森林体系瓦解后，美元与黄金脱钩，美元对黄金的价值大幅贬值。 以1971年35美元/盎司为基准，2025年4月黄金价格一度超过3450美元/盎司，美元相对黄金贬值超99%。 各国货币失去了黄金锚定，通胀成为了政府征收的"隐形税"。 这背后的逻辑，也是比特币的金融学"第一性原理"之一。 2、黄金不产生有现金流，长周期没跑赢美国股市。 虽然黄金把美元秒成渣，但是-- 以1900年为基准，黄金的真实购买力基本维持不变； 而股市（如标普500）的真实回报率年化约7%。 从1801年至2014年，黄金涨到3倍，（美国）股票涨到100万倍。 这个对比揭示了黄金作为"价值储存"而非"增值工具"的本质。 1、上世纪70年代至今，美元相对黄金贬值99%。 但是过去数十年，黄金回报不错。参见下图。 1971年至2025年，黄金年化回报8.2%，标普500为7.8%，纳指为10.6%。 2005年底至2025年初，国际金价从每盎司500美元上涨至3350美元左右，年化回报率约为9.7%，同期标普500指数的年均涨幅为9.82%。 近5年，黄金年化收益率高达16.2%，标普500约为 ...