证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 11 月 20 日 [Table_Title] SQM 锂盐销量同比增长 42 %至 7.29 万吨， Kwinana 加工厂计划在 2026 年底达到额定产能 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: ►2025Q3 生产经营情况 1、锂盐业务 2025Q3 锂盐销量为 7.29 万吨，同比增长 42%，环比增长 37%。其中智利锂盐销量 6.29 万吨，同比增长 22.85%，环比 增长 18.45%；国际部（Mt Holland）锂盐销量 1 万吨，上一季 度销量为 1300 吨。第三季度，公司实现了历史最高的锂销 量，这主要得益于超出预期的强劲需求增长。锂需求的强劲增 长不仅来自电动汽车行业，也来自电池储能系统，后者已占全 球锂需求的 20%以上。此外，公司观察到整个供应链的库存水 平有所下降，加之近几个月来出现的一些供应中断，共同促成 了整体价格趋势的转变。 阿塔卡马盐沼矿区的平均实际售价接近每公斤 8.8 美元， 较上一季度增长 3.5%。尽管涨幅不大，但这标志着在波动剧 烈 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - On November 19, the domestic commodity futures market showed overall strong fluctuations, with significant differentiation among sectors. Energy metals surged, while oilseeds, soda ash, and glass faced downward pressure [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1481.72 points, up 6.51 points or 0.44% from the previous trading day. The China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 2048.64 points, up 9.00 points or 0.44% [1] Group 2: Energy Metals Performance - Energy metals, including lithium carbonate, polysilicon, and industrial silicon, led the market with gains exceeding 4%. Lithium carbonate briefly surpassed the 100,000 yuan/ton mark during trading [2][3] - The strong performance of lithium carbonate is supported by robust fundamentals, with continuous price increases attributed to inventory depletion and strong demand. However, there are potential risks associated with price fluctuations due to the ongoing negotiations regarding the resumption of production at Ningde [2][3] Group 3: Chemical Products Performance - In contrast to the energy metals, the chemical products sector has been under pressure. Soda ash prices fell over 3%, reaching a four-month low due to oversupply and weak demand [4] - The glass market is also experiencing weakness, with prices declining amid oversupply and seasonal demand reduction. This has led to lower average profitability for production lines, increasing the likelihood of production cuts [4][5] Group 4: Aluminum and Other Commodities - Aluminum oxide prices have also declined, dropping nearly 2% and hitting a six-month low. The high operating rate of over 81% in domestic aluminum oxide production limits demand growth, contributing to inventory accumulation [5] - Other commodities, including the European shipping index, also faced declines, with multiple active products recording losses exceeding 1% [5]

Market Overview - The three major indices opened slightly lower but then rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.19%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.31%, and ChiNext Index up 0.64% as of 9:45 AM [1] Key Sectors Lithium Mining Stocks - Lithium mining stocks showed strong performance, led by Jinyuan Co., with Shengxin Lithium Energy, Dazhong Mining, Zhongmin Resources, and Rongjie Co. also rising [1][3] - The price of lithium carbonate futures increased by 3% to 97,440 yuan per ton, with expectations that prices could exceed 150,000 to 200,000 yuan per ton by 2026 [3] Consumer Sector - The consumer sector, including food, clothing, and home goods, was active, with Jiayuan Wang achieving six consecutive trading limits and Nanjiao Foods hitting the limit up [5] - Financial support measures to boost consumption in Beijing were announced, increasing credit support for commodity consumption [5] Institutional Insights Xinda Securities - Xinda Securities noted a potential shift in market style, emphasizing the importance of low-value sectors and suggesting that non-bank financials are gaining elasticity [2][7] Zhongtai Securities - Zhongtai Securities indicated that the market may enter a phase dominated by liquidity and structural opportunities, with a focus on cyclical sectors and technology growth [8] Guotai Junan Securities - Guotai Junan Securities highlighted that the market is currently in a policy vacuum, with a likelihood of continued rotation of hot sectors without significant news stimuli [9]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed a positive trend with all three major indices opening lower but rising throughout the morning session, driven by significant gains in precious and energy metals, particularly lithium-related stocks [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market indices experienced a low opening but subsequently increased, with notable stocks such as Tianhua New Energy rising over 10% and Rongjie Co. hitting the daily limit [1] - Rare metal ETF (562800) saw an intraday increase of over 4%, reflecting the positive sentiment in the market [1] Group 2: Price Trends of Raw Materials - Prices of upstream raw materials for lithium batteries have risen significantly, with battery-grade lithium carbonate priced at 85,000 yuan/ton, a 15.65% increase from early October 2025 [1] - The price of electrolytic cobalt reached 402,500 yuan/ton, marking a 17.69% increase since early October [1] - Lithium hexafluorophosphate saw a dramatic price increase of 105.0%, now priced at 123,000 yuan/ton compared to early October [1] Group 3: ETF Composition - The rare metal ETF (562800) tracks the CSI Rare Metal Theme Index, which includes sectors such as rare earths, lithium, copper, cobalt, and tungsten [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the ETF include leading companies like Northern Rare Earth, Luoyang Molybdenum, Huayou Cobalt, and Salt Lake Potash [1]

Core Points - On November 13, 2025, Shengtun Mining (SH600711) hit the daily limit with a price of 12.21 yuan, marking a 10% increase and a total market capitalization of 37.736 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Management Changes - The company appointed new executives on November 12, 2025, including Wu Yicong as the Executive Vice President and Long Shuang as the General Manager, which may bring new management ideas and development strategies, enhancing market expectations for the company's future [2] Group 2: Industry Focus - Shengtun Mining is focused on the development and utilization of energy metal resources, particularly copper, nickel, and cobalt, and engages in metal trading and processing, converting ores into products suitable for battery manufacturing [2] Group 3: Dividend Announcement - On November 10, 2025, the company announced a dividend plan of 0.50 yuan per 10 shares for Q3 2025, indicating strong profitability and a commitment to shareholder returns, which attracted investor attention [2] Group 4: Market Trends - The energy metals market is currently experiencing high demand due to the ongoing development of the new energy industry, which is expected to benefit Shengtun Mining [2] Group 5: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators such as capital inflow and MACD signals may also contribute to the stock price increase, although specific technical analysis requires further market data [2]

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a positive outlook on copper, aluminum, and precious metals, indicating high market activity and potential for investment [12][34][62] Core Insights - Copper prices have shown a slight decline, but the overall market remains robust with increasing demand and production recovery [13][14] - Aluminum market is experiencing a turning point with supply constraints and stable demand, leading to potential price increases [14] - Precious metals, particularly gold, are stabilizing amidst geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, suggesting a favorable investment environment [15] Summary by Sections Copper - LME copper price decreased by 1.80% to $10,695.00 per ton, while domestic prices fell by 1.23% to 86,000 yuan per ton [13] - Domestic copper inventory increased to 203,300 tons, marking a three-year high, with a notable rise in production rates among major cable manufacturers [13][14] - The demand for copper is recovering as prices decline, leading to improved order volumes and production rates [13] Aluminum - LME aluminum price decreased by 0.90% to $2,862.00 per ton, while domestic prices increased by 1.53% to 21,600 yuan per ton [14] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory reached 622,000 tons, with a slight increase in production rates among downstream processing enterprises [14] - The aluminum market is facing challenges due to environmental regulations and seasonal demand fluctuations, but there is potential for recovery in specific sectors [14] Precious Metals - COMEX gold price decreased by 0.15% to $4,007.80 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings increasing to 1,042.06 tons [15] - The gold market is influenced by ongoing U.S. government shutdowns and geopolitical risks, maintaining a strong but volatile trading environment [15] - The overall sentiment in the precious metals market remains positive, with expectations of price stabilization and potential upward movement [15] Rare Earths - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide increased by 4.23%, driven by heightened demand expectations following the suspension of export control measures [34] - The rare earth sector is expected to see significant price increases due to supply constraints and strategic importance in various industries [34] Antimony - Antimony prices decreased by 6.89%, but the market outlook is improving due to potential recovery in export demand and stable domestic consumption [36] - The report suggests that resource scarcity and reduced global supply could lead to upward price adjustments in the future [36] Tin - Tin prices slightly decreased by 0.12%, but the market is expected to remain resilient due to ongoing supply chain disruptions and stable demand [37] - The report highlights the impact of regulatory actions in Indonesia aimed at curbing illegal mining, which may support future price stability [37] Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices increased by 2.14% to 80,600 yuan per ton, with production levels showing a slight rise [62] - The lithium market is experiencing strong demand growth, particularly in the energy storage and electric vehicle sectors, which is expected to support prices [62]

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices collectively adjusted today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.25%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.36%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.51%. The North Stock 50 increased by 0.19% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 20,202 billion yuan, a decrease of 557 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Over 3,100 stocks in the market experienced declines [1] Sector Performance - The organic silicon, chemical, energy metals, Hainan Free Trade Zone, photovoltaic equipment, and port shipping sectors saw the largest gains [1] - Conversely, the AI corpus, quantum technology, humanoid robots, cloud computing, and brain-computer interface sectors experienced the most significant declines [1] ETF Performance - The chemical sector was strong, with several ETFs such as Huabao Fund Chemical ETF, Guotai Fund Chemical Leader ETF, and others rising over 3% [1] - The new materials sector also performed well, with ETFs from Jianxin Fund, Ping An Fund, and Guotai Fund increasing by 2.46%, 2.44%, and 2.41% respectively [1] - The photovoltaic sector continued its upward trend, with the Puyin Ansheng Fund Photovoltaic Leader ETF rising by 2.28% [1] Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong internet sector declined, with the Hong Kong Internet ETF and Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF falling by 2.89% and 2.62% respectively [1] - The software sector also showed negative performance, with the Software Leader ETF and Software 50 ETF dropping by 2.44% and 2.41% respectively [1] - The artificial intelligence sector saw a comprehensive decline, with the AI ETF and Financial Technology ETF both falling by over 2% [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the game between China and the US persists, the Fed's balance - sheet reduction may near an end, the employment market has a downward risk, leading to a decline in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and a rise in global risk appetite. Domestically, economic growth accelerates, multiple industry stability - growth plans are introduced, but short - term Sino - US game and domestic risk - aversion sentiment exist. The market focuses on domestic incremental policies and Sino - US game, with weak short - term upward macro drivers [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends: stocks are in short - term high - level adjustment, bonds are in short - term oscillation, and different commodity sectors have different short - term trends such as oscillation or adjustment [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the game between China and the US, Fed's balance - sheet reduction plan, and employment market situation affect the US dollar index and US Treasury yields. Domestically, economic growth accelerates, policies support multiple industries, and the market focuses on domestic policies and Sino - US game. Assets like stocks, bonds, and various commodities have different short - term trends [2]. - **Stock Index**: Affected by semiconductor, energy metal, and AI sectors, the domestic stock market falls. The economy grows, policies support, but short - term upward drivers are weak. Short - term cautious observation is recommended [3]. - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals market rises, with gold and silver prices increasing. Affected by trade uncertainty and Fed rate - cut expectations, they are in a short - term strong and long - term upward trend. Short - term, hold long positions or reduce at high prices; long - term, buy at low prices [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel market is weak, with low - volume trading. Cost support weakens, and prices are expected to continue the weak trend in the short term [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore futures and spot falls. As steel mills' profits narrow, ore demand may decline. Supply shows a mixed trend, and a short - term bearish view is recommended [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron are stable, and the futures prices fall. Supply and demand are in a certain state, and the futures prices are expected to oscillate in a range [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash contract is weak. Supply is in the capacity - expansion period, demand increases marginally in the peak season. In the long - term, a bearish view is recommended due to supply - side contradictions [8]. - **Glass**: The glass contract is weak. Supply increases, and the new policy provides support. Demand improves marginally in the peak season but slows down after the holiday. It is expected to run weakly in the short - term range [8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Affected by trade concerns, copper prices fluctuate. The global copper output is expected to grow in 2026. The US economy and copper demand have uncertainties. Short - term, the domestic output is high, and demand faces challenges [9]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices fall. Inventory increases, supply is rigid, demand weakens, and the price is difficult to rise significantly [10]. - **Tin**: The global tin supply is tight, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level, with support and pressure coexisting [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate contract rises slightly. Trade conflicts and warehouse - receipt cancellation bring pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate in a range [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon contract falls. Production reaches a new high, and the price is expected to oscillate in a range, with attention to cost support [11]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon contract rises. Warehouse - receipt cancellation and supply - demand imbalance bring pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate, with attention to spot price support [12]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices are affected by trade signals, geopolitical factors, and port sanctions. Short - term, they oscillate; long - term, they are bearish [13][14]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt is in a weak oscillation. The peak - season demand is near the end, inventory pressure increases, and it depends on crude - oil cost support [14]. - **PX**: PX oscillates weakly with the polyester sector. It has certain demand support but is likely to continue the weak trend [14]. - **PTA**: PTA prices are weak. Supply is high, demand is under pressure, and inventory increases [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The inventory of ethylene glycol rises, demand is weak, and it is expected to accumulate inventory in October and run at a low price [15]. - **Short - fiber**: Short - fiber adjusts with the polyester sector. Terminal orders improve slightly, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [15]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices oscillate weakly. Supply exceeds demand, inventory is high, and it is under pressure [16]. - **PP**: PP prices are weak. Supply and demand both increase, but new - capacity and trade - war factors bring pressure [16][17]. - **LLDPE**: LLDPE prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Supply pressure increases, demand recovers slowly, and it is affected by oil prices and trade [17]. - **Urea**: Urea prices rise slightly. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and it depends on export - policy implementation [18]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: US soybeans oscillate weakly due to demand uncertainty and lack of USDA reports [19]. - **Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal**: Domestic soybean meal contracts oscillate. In the long - term, the price may rise; in the short - term, inventory pressure exists, and it may oscillate at a low level [19]. - **Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil**: Soybean oil may accumulate inventory after the holiday and run weakly. Rapeseed oil inventory is being depleted and forms support [20]. - **Palm Oil**: Palm oil production increases in October, and exports also increase. The implementation of B50 in Indonesia has an impact on the market, and short - term demand growth is difficult [20][21]. - **Pigs**: Pig prices fall to a record low due to increased supply. With the expectation of consumption recovery in autumn and winter, prices may stabilize [21].

Market Overview - Major A-share indices collectively declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.62% to 3865 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 2.54%, and the ChiNext Index down 3.99% [1][2] - The total market turnover reached 2.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 222.4 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 3500 stocks declining [1] Index Performance - Shanghai Composite Index: 3865.23, down 24.27 points (-0.62%) [2] - Shenzhen Component Index: 12895.11, down 336.36 points (-2.54%) [2] - ChiNext Index: 2955.98, down 122.78 points (-3.99%) [2] - STAR 50 Index: 1410.30, down 62.72 points (-4.26%) [2] - CSI 300 Index: 4539.06, down 54.91 points (-1.20%) [2] - CSI 500 Index: 7194.85, down 181.71 points (-2.46%) [2] Sector Performance - Semiconductor sector experienced significant declines, with stocks like Yandong Micro and Chip Source falling over 10% [3] - CPO concept and optical communication module stocks also fell, with Tongfu Microelectronics hitting the daily limit down [3] - Robotics sector saw a collective drop, with companies like Awei New Materials down nearly 15% [3] - The diamond cultivation sector rose against the trend, with Strength Diamond hitting a 20% limit up [3] - Insurance sector gained, with New China Life Insurance rising over 5% [3] - Gas stocks surged, with Fuan Energy and Guo New Energy both hitting the daily limit up [3] - Coal, banking, and port industries showed positive performance [3]

Core Viewpoint - The three major stock indices collectively declined, with the ChiNext index dropping nearly 4% and the Sci-Tech 50 index falling over 4% [1] Market Performance - The financial sector showed resilience, with insurance and banking stocks leading the gains; Chongqing Bank rose over 6% [1] - The liquor sector remained active throughout the day, with stocks like Guizhou Moutai, Shede Liquor, and Luzhou Laojiao seeing increases [1] - The port and shipping sector experienced a surge in the afternoon, with Nanjing Port hitting the daily limit [1] Declining Sectors - The semiconductor industry faced a comprehensive adjustment, with companies like Huahong Semiconductor and Yandong Microelectronics dropping over 10% [1] - The CPO concept continued to decline, with Tongfu Microelectronics and New Yisheng leading the losses [1] - PEEK materials weakened, with Changying Precision falling significantly [1] - The consumer electronics sector also saw declines, with companies like Tonglian Precision and Kaiwang Technology dropping over 10% [1] Overall Market Summary - The overall market saw more stocks declining than rising, with over 3,500 stocks experiencing a drop [1] - At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 3,865.23 points, down 0.62%; the Shenzhen Component Index was at 12,895.11 points, down 2.54%; and the ChiNext Index was at 2,955.98 points, down 3.99% [1] - On the plate, cultivated diamonds, insurance, and gas sectors had the highest gains, while energy metals, semiconductors, and lithography machine sectors faced the largest declines [1]