合成橡胶产业日报 2025-11-27 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 10400 | 40 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 58829 | -4201 | | | 合成橡胶1-2价差(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 | 5 | 0 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 2950 | 70 | | 现货市场 | | 10400 | -100 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 | 10350 | -100 | | | 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):上 | 10450 | 东(日,元/吨) -50 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,茂名石化):广 | 10650 | 0 | | | 海(日,元/吨) 基差:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 140 | 东(日,元/吨) -90 | | | | | 布伦特原油(日,美元/桶) 东北亚乙烯价格( ...

率明显提升，但整体市场表现未见明显转好，为控制库存增加，部分企业仍处灵活控产状态，预计短期企 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 业装置运行平稳为主。br2512合约短线预计在10600-11300区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 合成橡胶产业日报 2025-10-20 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) 10840 -85 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) 74828 | | 57827 | | | 合成橡胶12 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term forecast for the br2512 contract is a price fluctuation in the range of 10,600 - 11,250 yuan/ton. With the restart of most previously overhauled cis - butadiene rubber plants, domestic production is expected to increase. Although some plants are under maintenance, others are increasing their production loads. On the raw material side, despite the maintenance plans of some butadiene plants in October, the supply of butadiene remains abundant due to the recovery of previous under - loaded plants and imports. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased significantly during the holiday due to maintenance plans, but it is expected to rise significantly this week as the plants resume operation [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 10,895 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton from the previous period; the position of the main contract is 24,468 lots, down 4,607 lots. The 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber is - 225 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan/ton. The total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber is 3,070 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream prices of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different manufacturers in various regions have declined. For example, the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,050 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is 155 yuan/ton, down 215 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil is 62.39 dollars/barrel, down 0.93 dollars/barrel; the price of WTI crude oil is 58.7 dollars/barrel, down 0.79 dollars/barrel. The price of naphtha CFR Japan is 553 dollars/ton, down 13.75 dollars/ton; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 785 dollars/ton, unchanged; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,010 dollars/ton, down 10 dollars/ton; the market price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 8,575 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.54 million tons/week, up 0.01 million tons/week; the capacity utilization rate is 67.37%, up 0.72 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 27,750 tons, unchanged. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 50.43%, down 3.06 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 13.57 million tons, up 0.65 million tons; the capacity utilization rate is 66.41%, down 3.31 percentage points. The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 544 yuan/ton, up 114 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 3.23 million tons, down 0.14 million tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 26,600 tons, unchanged; the trader's inventory is 5,700 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.03 million pieces, up 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.06 million pieces, up 1.09 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.87 days, down 0.23 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.7 days, down 0.23 days. As of October 9, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 42.15%, a decrease of 17.50 percentage points from the previous period and 36.62 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 41.53%, a decrease of 13.83 percentage points from the previous period and 0.78 percentage points lower than the same period last year [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Some enterprises arranged maintenance during the holiday, which dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate. In September 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles, a 15% increase from August and an 82% increase from the same period last year. From January to September this year, the cumulative sales of the domestic heavy - truck market exceeded 800,000 vehicles, reaching 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20%. In September 2025, the output and capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber both declined slightly. The capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 69.91%, a decrease of 0.49 percentage points from the previous period and an increase of 12.16 percentage points from the same period last year [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the support from the cost and supply side has loosened. Both the synthetic rubber futures and the mainstream supply prices have shown a rapid rise and then a fall. Arbitrageurs are actively entering the market, but the downstream terminal procurement is passive. The overall inventory of production enterprises has decreased, while the inventory of trading enterprises has slightly increased. [2] - Next week, there are expectations of short - term shutdown and maintenance for the butadiene rubber plants of Qixiang Tengda and Maoming Petrochemical, and the butadiene rubber plant of Shandong Yihua is expected to restart. The supply is expected to decrease slightly, but under the weak demand expectation, the inventory of production enterprises may still increase. [2] - In terms of demand, the overall capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires has declined slightly this week due to maintenance in some enterprises at the end of the month, and the overall capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires has also decreased due to maintenance in some enterprises. The overall shipment of enterprises at the end of the month was concentrated, and the finished product inventory decreased. Next week, the resumption of production of maintenance enterprises will boost the overall capacity utilization rate to some extent, but there are also maintenance arrangements at the beginning of the month in some enterprises. It is expected that the overall capacity utilization rate will be slightly adjusted, and the overall improvement space is limited. The short - term of the br2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11380 - 12000. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 11495 yuan/ton, a decrease of 280 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. The position of the main contract was 34820, a decrease of 4870. The 9 - 10 spread of synthetic rubber was 15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 2290 tons, unchanged from the previous period. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 11950 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 11800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai was 11900 yuan/ton, unchanged; that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 11900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of synthetic rubber was 305 yuan/ton, and the basis in Shandong was 130 yuan/ton. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of Brent crude oil was 73.24 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.73 US dollars/barrel; the price of WTI crude oil was 70 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.79 US dollars/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 820 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of naphtha CFR Japan was 608.25 US dollars/ton, an increase of 19 US dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 1090 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the market price of butadiene in Shandong market was 9150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. [2] - The weekly production capacity of butadiene was 14.77 million tons/week, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 70%, an increase of 2.04 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 15700 tons, a decrease of 4300 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 48.16%, an increase of 0.85 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of butadiene rubber was 122,500 tons, a decrease of 16,900 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 67.63%, an increase of 2.42 percentage points. The production profit of butadiene rubber was - 440 yuan/ton, an increase of 192 yuan/ton. The social inventory of butadiene rubber was 32,300 tons, unchanged; the manufacturer's inventory was 24,850 tons, a decrease of 800 tons; the trader's inventory was 7470 tons, an increase of 870 tons. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 75.87%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 65.02%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 1.262 million pieces, and the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 5.523 million pieces, an increase of 108,000 pieces. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 40.95 days, an increase of 0.1 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.55 days, an increase of 0.37 days. [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of July 30, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 31,300 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.09%. [2] - As of July 31, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.98%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.19 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.26%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.97 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.20 percentage points. [2] - In June 2025, China's butadiene rubber export volume was 29,748.90 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.99%; from January to June 2025, the total export volume was 152,812.3 tons, an increase of 35,992.05 tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 30.81%. In June 2025, China's butadiene rubber import volume was 19,183.53 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.38%; from January to June 2025, the total import volume was 138,619.08 tons, an increase of 2537.53 tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.86%. [2]

Report Overview - Report Name: Synthetic Rubber Industry Daily Report 2025-07-30 [1] - Analyst: Lin Jingyi [2] - Qualification Numbers: Futures Practitioner Qualification No. F03139610, Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate No. Z0021558 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Recently, the support from cost and supply side for butadiene rubber has weakened, leading to a rapid rise and fall in both the futures and mainstream supply prices. Arbitrageurs are actively entering the market, but downstream terminal procurement is passive. Production enterprise inventories are generally decreasing, while trade enterprise inventories are slightly increasing. [2] - Next week, there are expectations of short - term shutdown and maintenance for the butadiene rubber units of Qixiang Tengda and Maoming Petrochemical, and the Shandong Yihua butadiene unit is expected to restart. The supply is expected to decrease slightly, but under the weak demand expectation, production enterprise inventories may still increase. [2] - In terms of demand, the production resumption of some unexpectedly shut - down enterprises drove a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises last week. However, near the end of the month, the overall shipment of enterprises fell short of expectations, the finished product inventory increased slightly, and the overall order performance was insufficient. Some enterprises may have short - term maintenance plans from late July to early August, and the short - term capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises is expected to decline. The br2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,650 - 12,200. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber was 11,775 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan; the position volume of the main contract was 39,690, a decrease of 1,446. The 9 - 10 spread of synthetic rubber was 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 2,290 tons, unchanged. [2] 2. Spot Market - The mainstream prices of BR9000 butadiene rubber from different manufacturers all decreased. For example, the price from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai was 11,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan; from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 11,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan. The basis of synthetic rubber was 175 yuan/ton. [2] - The price of Brent crude oil was 72.51 dollars/barrel, an increase of 2.47 dollars; WTI crude oil was 69.21 dollars/barrel, an increase of 2.5 dollars. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 820 dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of naphtha CFR Japan was 589.25 dollars/ton, an increase of 10.75 dollars; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 1,090 dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 dollars; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan. [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 14.77 million tons/week, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate was 70%, an increase of 2.04 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 15,700 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 48.16%, an increase of 0.85 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of butadiene rubber was 122,500 tons, a decrease of 16,900 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate was 67.63%, an increase of 2.42 percentage points. The production profit of butadiene rubber was - 440 yuan/ton, an increase of 192 yuan; the social inventory was 32,300 tons, unchanged; the manufacturer's inventory was 24,850 tons, a decrease of 800 tons; the trader's inventory was 7,470 tons, an increase of 870 tons. [2] 4. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 75.87%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 65.02%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, an increase of 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, an increase of 1.08 million pieces. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 40.95 days, and the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.55 days, an increase of 0.37 days. As of July 30, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 31,300 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.09%. [2] 5. Industry News - As of July 24, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.06%, a month - on - month increase of 1.93 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.06 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.23%, a month - on - month increase of 0.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.98 percentage points. The production of some unexpectedly shut - down enterprises basically resumed, driving a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. [2] - In June 2025, China's butadiene rubber export volume was 29,748.90 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.99%; from January to June 2025, the total export volume was 152,812.3 tons, an increase of 35,992.05 tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 30.81%. In June 2025, China's butadiene rubber import volume was 19,183.53 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.38%; from January to June 2025, the total import volume was 138,619.08 tons, an increase of 2,537.53 tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.86%. [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Some traders placed orders for replenishment, but the lack of actual positive factors hindered sales. Production enterprise inventories decreased slightly, while trading enterprise inventories increased [2]. - The supply of raw material butadiene was relatively sufficient, weakening the cost support for butadiene rubber. Recently, many domestic butadiene rubber producers had maintenance and shutdowns [2]. - In terms of demand, the production schedules of previously overhauled enterprises gradually returned to normal levels. Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased month - on - month. In the short term, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises was expected to fluctuate slightly. The BR2508 contract was expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,400 - 11,900 [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber was 11,740 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 255 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract was 16,777, with a month - on - month increase of 596 [2]. - The 7 - 8 spread of synthetic rubber was 120 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 40 yuan/ton. The total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber was 5,170 tons, unchanged from the previous period [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber was - 205 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 (Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong was 11,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The mainstream price of BR9000 (Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong and Shanghai was also 11,600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of BR9000 (Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong was 11,650 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil was at $76.45 per barrel, up $3.22. WTI crude oil was at $74.84 per barrel, up $3.07. Naphtha CFR Japan was at $625.63 per ton, up $1.5. The Northeast Asian ethylene price was $810 per ton, up $10. The CFR China butadiene price was $1,070 per ton, up $20 [2]. - The market price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9,400 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton. The weekly butadiene production capacity was 147,700 tons, unchanged. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 68.98%, up 0.96 percentage points [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene was 21,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons. The operating rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 45.12%, down 1.88 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of butadiene rubber was 17,900 tons. The weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 65.03%, down 2.22 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber was 306 yuan/ton, and the social inventory of butadiene rubber was 33,900 tons, a decrease of 100 tons [2]. - The manufacturer's inventory of butadiene rubber was 27,650 tons, a decrease of 650 tons. The trader's inventory of butadiene rubber was 6,210 tons, an increase of 530 tons [2]. - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 77.98%, up 4.12 percentage points. The operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 61.24%, down 2.23 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 11.82 million, a decrease of 1.26 million. The monthly output of semi - steel tires was 54.15 million, a decrease of 1.24 million [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 41.74 days, a decrease of 0.13 days. The inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.28 days, an increase of 0.44 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of June 11, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 33,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.35% [2]. - As of June 12, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.98%, a month - on - month increase of 5.93 percentage points and a year，on - year decrease of 10 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 58.70%, a month - on - month increase of 3.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.95 percentage points [2]. - In May 2025, the heavy - truck market in China sold about 83,000 vehicles, a 5% decrease from April and a 6% increase from the same period last year. From January to May 2025, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market were about 435,500 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 1% [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply of raw material butadiene is relatively sufficient, weakening the cost support for butadiene rubber production. Recently, many domestic butadiene rubber producers have carried out maintenance and shutdowns. Some traders have placed orders for replenishment, but the lack of actual positive factors has hindered sales. Producer inventories have slightly decreased, while trader inventories have increased. [2] - In terms of demand, the production schedules of previously overhauled enterprises have gradually returned to normal levels. Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased month - on - month. In the short term, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises is expected to fluctuate slightly. The BR2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,000 - 11,600 in the short term. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber was 11,485 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The position of the main contract was 16,181 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,138 yuan/ton. The 7 - 8 spread of synthetic rubber was 160 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton. The total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in warehouses was 5,170 tons, unchanged from the previous period. [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different producers in different regions showed various changes, with prices ranging from 11,600 - 11,650 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber was 215 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. [2] - The price of Brent crude oil was 73.23 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1 dollar/barrel. The price of WTI crude oil was 71.77 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.21 dollars/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 800 dollars/ton, an increase of 10 dollars/ton. The price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was 624.13 dollars/ton, an increase of 3.63 dollars/ton. The intermediate price of butadiene (CFR China) was 1,050 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton. [2] Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 14.77 million tons/week, unchanged from the previous period. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 68.98%, an increase of 0.96 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 21,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 45.12%, a decrease of 1.88 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of butadiene rubber was 13.94 million tons, an increase of 1.79 million tons. The weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 65.03%, a decrease of 2.22 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber was - 576 yuan/ton, an increase of 306 yuan/ton. The social inventory of butadiene rubber was 3.39 million tons, a decrease of 0.01 million tons. The producer inventory of butadiene rubber decreased by 650 tons, and the trader inventory increased by 530 tons to 6,210 tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 77.98%, an increase of 4.12 percentage points, and the operating rate of full - steel tires was 61.24%, a decrease of 2.23 percentage points. The monthly output of full - steel tires was 1,182 thousand pieces, a decrease of 126 thousand pieces, and the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 5,415 thousand pieces, a decrease of 124 thousand pieces. The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong were 41.74 days, a decrease of 0.13 days, and the inventory days of semi - steel tires were 46.28 days, an increase of 0.44 days. [2] Industry News - As of June 11, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 3.39 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 million tons or 0.35%. [2] - As of June 12, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.98%, a month - on - month increase of 5.93 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.00 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 58.70%, a month - on - month increase of 3.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.95 percentage points. [2] - In May 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles (wholesale basis), a month - on - month decrease of 5% compared to April and a year - on - year increase of about 6%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 435,500 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 1%. [2]

Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Industry Daily Report 2025 - 06 - 04 [1] - Researcher: Lin Jingyi [2] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03139610 [2] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0021558 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - Recently, the sentiment on the raw material side has gradually subsided. The production cost of cis - butadiene rubber has decreased slightly but there are still large losses. The continuous large - scale losses in production may lead some private enterprises to further reduce their production loads. The overall supply is expected to continue to decrease as the full - scale overhaul of Yanshan Petrochemical starts gradually. The prices in the cis - butadiene rubber spot market have continued to decline and it's still difficult to attract trading. Last week, the inventories of cis - butadiene production enterprises and trading enterprises both increased. On the demand side, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased last week. Most tire enterprises' equipment ran smoothly, some enterprises had maintenance plans at the end of the month, and a few enterprises reduced production, dragging down the capacity utilization rate. Some enterprises have short - term maintenance plans recently, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises may continue to decline in the short term. The BR2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,750 - 11,500 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is not clearly shown in the data table. The position of the 220 main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,095, with a decrease of 3,874. The 6 - 7 spread of synthetic rubber is 35 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in the warehouse is 6,050 tons, with a decrease of 70 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,400 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 200 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,300 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shanghai is 11,350 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong is 11,400 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is 305 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 320 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is 65.63 US dollars/barrel, with no change; WTI crude oil is 63.41 US dollars/barrel. The price of naphtha CFR Japan is 561.63 US dollars/ton, with no change; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 1,150 US dollars/ton, with no change; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 780 US dollars/ton, with no change; the market price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 9,350 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 350 yuan/ton. The weekly capacity of butadiene is unchanged, the capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 69.3%, with an increase of 1.57 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 28,500 tons, and the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 46.09%, with a decrease of 1.19 percentage points [2] 3.4 Production and Inventory of Cis - Butadiene Rubber - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 12.15 tons, with a decrease of 0.68 tons. The weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 73.54%, with a decrease of 2.03 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 279 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 894 yuan/ton. The weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 3.45 tons, with an increase of 0.17 tons. The weekly manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 1,100 tons, and the weekly trader inventory is 6,360 tons, with an increase of 560 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 78.25%, with an increase of 0.03 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 64.8%, with a decrease of 0.16 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 5,539 million pieces, with a decrease of 61 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 1,308 million pieces, with a decrease of 427 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 41.96 days, with a decrease of 0.9 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 46.22 days, with a decrease of 0.78 days [2] 3.6 Industry News - As of May 29, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 3.45 tons, an increase of 0.17 tons compared with the previous period (20250521), a month - on - month increase of 5.06%. The raw material market was weak this period, but the overall domestic supply was still sufficient. The bearish sentiment of industry players continued to rise. Coupled with the weakening of the natural rubber market, the price of the cis - butadiene rubber spot market continued to decline and there was still no trading follow - up. The inventories of sample production enterprises and sample trading enterprises both increased. As of May 29, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.51%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.23 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.58 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.80%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.29 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 4.40 percentage points. Most tire enterprises' equipment ran smoothly during the period, some enterprises had maintenance plans at the end of the month, and a few enterprises reduced production, dragging down the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises month - on - month. In May 2025, the heavy - truck market in China sold about 83,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a slight decrease of 5% compared with April this year, and an increase of about 6% compared with 78,200 vehicles in the same period last year. Cumulatively, from January to May this year, the cumulative sales volume of the heavy - truck market in China was about 435,500 vehicles, a slight increase of about 1% year - on - year [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Recent raw material butadiene prices have been rising due to strong demand and unexpected shutdowns of some units, significantly increasing the production cost of cis - butadiene rubber. Driven by macro - positive news, the spot market price has strengthened, and the inventories of production and trading enterprises have decreased to varying degrees. However, some private cis - butadiene rubber plants are expected to restart, increasing supply. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly last week, but most semi - steel tire enterprises have slow overall shipments and continued inventory growth, while full - steel tire capacity utilization is in a restorative growth state, with some enterprises facing increased shipment pressure, continued growth in finished product inventory, insufficient orders, and overall production scheduling lower than the pre - holiday average. The BR2507 contract should pay short - term attention to the support level around 12,000, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 11,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 170 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 15,064 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,927 yuan/ton. The synthetic rubber 6 - 7 spread is - 115 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in the warehouse is 6,820 tons, an increase of 200 tons [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different manufacturers has decreased. The base difference of synthetic rubber is 450 yuan/ton, and the price of Brent crude oil is 70 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.16 dollars/barrel. The price of naphtha CFR Japan is 780 dollars/ton, unchanged; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,200 dollars/ton, a decrease of 20 dollars/ton. The price of WTI crude oil is 62.03 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.66 dollars/barrel, and the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 11,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 225 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 14.78 million tons/week, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate is 68.02%, a decrease of 1.33 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 30,870 tons, a decrease of 6,030 tons. The operating rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 47.28%, a decrease of 1.22 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 128,300 tons, an increase of 16,500 tons; the capacity utilization rate is 79.2%, an increase of 4.46 percentage points. The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 1,233 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,060 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 32,200 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 26,650 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons; the trader's inventory is 5,470 tons, a decrease of 430 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 78.33%, an increase of 19.98 percentage points; the operating rate of full - steel tires is 65.09%, an increase of 20.32 percentage points. The monthly output of full - steel tires is 13.69 million pieces, an increase of 3.09 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 59.66 million pieces, an increase of 11.56 million pieces. The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong are 42.77 days, an increase of 0.25 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.78 days, an increase of 0.69 days [2] Industry News - As of May 15, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China decreased by 0.14 million tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 4.26%. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.21%, a month - on - month increase of 24.50 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.98 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.88%, a month - on - month increase of 18.19 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.40 percentage points. In April 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 90,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 19% compared with March and a year - on - year increase of about 9.4%. From January to April 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 355,000 vehicles, showing year - on - year parity [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recent raw material butadiene prices have been rising due to strong demand and unexpected shutdowns of some units, significantly increasing the production cost of butadiene rubber. Driven by macro - positive news, the spot market price has strengthened, and the inventories of production and trading enterprises have decreased to varying degrees. However, some private butadiene rubber units are expected to restart, increasing supply. In terms of demand, last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly month - on - month. Most semi - steel tire enterprises have returned to normal levels but with slow overall shipments and continued inventory growth. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires is in a restorative upward trend, but some enterprises have increased inventory due to shipment pressure, insufficient orders, and overall production scheduling below the pre - holiday average. The BR2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,600 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber was 12,070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 170 yuan/ton. The main contract position was 16,991, a decrease of 2,538. The synthetic rubber 6 - 7 spread was - 80 yuan/ton, unchanged. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 6,620 tons, a decrease of 60 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 12,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 12,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai was 12,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 12,600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of synthetic rubber was 380 yuan/ton, unchanged. Brent crude oil was 65.54 dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.13 dollars/barrel. Naphtha CFR Japan was 569.38 dollars/ton, an increase of 4 dollars/ton. The Northeast Asian ethylene price was 780 dollars/ton, unchanged. The CFR China butadiene intermediate price was 1,220 dollars/ton, unchanged. WTI crude oil was 62.69 dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.2 dollars/barrel. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 11,225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly butadiene production capacity was 14.78 million tons/week, unchanged. The weekly butadiene capacity utilization rate was 68.02%, a decrease of 1.33 percentage points. The port butadiene inventory was 30,870 tons, a decrease of 6,030 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 47.28%, a decrease of 1.22 percentage points. The monthly output of butadiene rubber was 128,300 tons, an increase of 16,500 tons. The weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 79.2%, an increase of 4.46 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber was - 1,233 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,060 yuan/ton. The weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber was 32,200 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons. The weekly manufacturer inventory of butadiene rubber was 26,650 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons. The weekly trader inventory of butadiene rubber was 5,470 tons, a decrease of 430 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 78.33%, an increase of 19.98 percentage points. The operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 65.09%, an increase of 20.32 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.69 million pieces, an increase of 3.09 million pieces. The monthly output of semi - steel tires was 59.66 million pieces, an increase of 11.56 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 42.77 days, an increase of 0.25 days. The inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 45.78 days, an increase of 0.69 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of May 15, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 32,100 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons from the previous period (May 7, 2025), a month - on - month decrease of 4.26%. As of May 15, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 71.21%, a month - on - month increase of 24.50 percentage points and a year - on -，month increase of 24.50 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.98 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.88%, a month - on - month increase of 18.19 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.40 percentage points. In April 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 90,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 19% from March and a year - on - year increase of about 9.4% compared with 82,300 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to April 2025, the cumulative sales of the domestic heavy - truck market were about 355,000 vehicles, showing a year - on - year flat [2].