| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 13825 | 295 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 32970 | -2543 | | | 合成橡胶4-5价差(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 | -55 | -45 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 18740 | 100 | | | | 13050 | 250 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 | 13050 | 250 | | 现货市场 | 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):上 | 13200 | 东(日,元/吨) 300 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,茂名石化):广 | 13100 | 250 | | | 海(日,元/吨) 基差:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | -30 | 东(日,元/吨) 735 | | | | | 布伦特原油(日,美元/桶) 东北亚乙烯价格(日,美元/吨) | 81. ...

合成橡胶产业日报 2026-03-02 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 13465 | 835 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 39385 | -5367 | | | 合成橡胶4-5价差(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 | -25 | 10 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 | 18540 | 0 | | | | 12450 | 0 | 12400 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):上 | | 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,茂名石化):广 | | | | | | 12400 | 0 | 12550 | 0 | | | 海(日,元/吨) 基差:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | -145 | 东(日,元/吨) 45 | | | | | 布伦特原油(日,美元/桶 ...

研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 合成橡胶产业日报 2026-02-24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) 635 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 13140 | 14886 | 338 | | 合成橡胶3-4价差(日,元/吨) | 65 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | -20 | 17540 | 560 | | 现货市场 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Pre - holiday procurement is mostly completed, with most sample production enterprises' inventory decreasing and sample trading enterprises' inventory declining slightly. It is expected that the inventory of both production and trading enterprises will increase in the short term. [2] - This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises declined, and it is expected to further decrease in the short term as many enterprises enter the Spring Festival holiday. The br2604 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,500 - 13,500 in the short term. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 12,855 yuan/ton, a decrease of 460 yuan; the position of the main contract is 33,340, a decrease of 2,762. [2] - The 3 - 4 spread of synthetic rubber is - 70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 9,610 tons, unchanged. [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical and Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 12,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 12,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 12,800 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The basis of synthetic rubber is - 415 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is at 69.46 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 2.13 US dollars; WTI crude oil is at 65.14 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 1.93 US dollars. [2] - The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 695 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 598.25 US dollars/ton, an increase of 14.5 US dollars; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,270 US dollars/ton, unchanged. [2] - The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 10,515 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan. [2] - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 15.93 million tons/week, unchanged; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 71.26%, an increase of 1.81 percentage points. [2] - The port inventory of butadiene is 40,500 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 51.68%, a decrease of 1.92 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 14.36 million tons, an increase of 1.35 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 76.38%, an increase of 0.26 percentage points. [2] - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 470 yuan/ton, an increase of 532 yuan. [2] - The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 3.44 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons; the manufacturer's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 27,650 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons; the trader's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 6,780 tons, an increase of 430 tons. [2] - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 74.84%, an increase of 0.28 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 62.44%, a decrease of 0.18 percentage points. [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.86 million pieces, a decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.39 million pieces, an increase of 80,000 pieces. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 46.78 days, a decrease of 0.02 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 48.78 days, an increase of 0.25 days. [2] Industry News - As of February 4, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.09%, a decrease of 2.23 percentage points month - on - month and an increase of 59.45 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.45%, a decrease of 2.02 percentage points month - on - month and an increase of 47.20 percentage points year - on - year. [2] - In January, the output of cis - butadiene rubber was 14.99 million tons, an increase of 0.63 million tons month - on - month (+4.41%) and an increase of 15.45% year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 75.97%, an increase of 3.19 percentage points from the previous month and an increase of 8.58 percentage points from the same period last year. [2] - As of February 4, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 3.31 million tons, a decrease of 0.13 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.78%. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The BR2603 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,650 - 12,430 in the short - term. The supply of domestic cis - butadiene rubber remains high, with an increase in both producer and trader inventories. Although short - term production profit has been significantly compressed, there are no signs of supply reduction. The downstream demand is weak as terminal users lack the willingness to stock up at high prices. The operating rate of domestic tire enterprises has increased significantly, with some semi - steel tire enterprises maintaining a high operating rate supported by foreign trade orders, while all - steel tire enterprises still control production to manage inventory [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 11,915 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 330 yuan/ton. The main contract position is 93,726, with a week - on - week increase of 2,724 [2]. - The 3 - 4 spread of synthetic rubber is - 40 yuan/ton, with no change. The total number of butadiene rubber warehouse receipts is 8,130 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1,300 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different producers in various regions has decreased. For example, the price in Shandong from Qilu Petrochemical and Daqing Petrochemical is 11,550 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 150 and 100 yuan/ton respectively. The price in Guangdong from Maoming Petrochemical is 11,650 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 100 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber is - 315 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 330 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Brent crude oil is 64.92 dollars/barrel, with an increase of 0.98 dollars/barrel. The price of WTI crude oil is 60.36 dollars/barrel, with an increase of 1.1 dollars/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 710 dollars/ton, with no change. The price of naphtha CFR Japan is 549 dollars/ton, with an increase of 0.5 dollars/ton. The price of butadiene CFR China is 1,180 dollars/ton, with no change. The market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9,500 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.93 million tons/week, with no change. The capacity utilization rate is 69.42%, with a decrease of 1.89 percentage points [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene is 44,600 tons, with an increase of 3,300 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 53.91%, with a decrease of 0.66 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 13.01 million tons, with a decrease of 0.75 million tons. The weekly capacity utilization rate is 79.68%, with an increase of 0.53 percentage points. The weekly production profit is - 386 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 721 yuan/ton [2]. - The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 3.49 million tons, with an increase of 0.18 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.50%. The producer inventory is 26,900 tons, and the trader inventory is 8,040 tons, with an increase of 1,270 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 74.39%, with an increase of 8.5 percentage points. The operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.52%, with an increase of 7.5 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 1,301 million pieces, and the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 5,831 million pieces, with an increase of 663 million pieces [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 46.1 days, with an increase of 1.48 days. The inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 47.92 days, with an increase of 0.56 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of January 15, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.53%, a week - on - week increase of 8.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.03 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.02%, a week - on - week increase of 7.52 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.21 percentage points. With the stable production of overhauled enterprises, the output increased significantly compared with last week, and the foreign trade orders of some semi - steel tire enterprises increased, boosting the capacity utilization rate [2]. - In December, the output of cis - butadiene rubber was 14.36 million tons, an increase of 1.35 million tons compared with the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 10.38% and a year - on - year increase of 1.97%. The capacity utilization rate was 72.13%, an increase of 4.65 percentage points compared with the previous month and a decrease of 2.68 percentage points compared with the same period last year [2]. - As of January 14, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 3.49 million tons, an increase of 0.18 million tons compared with the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 5.50% [2]

合成橡胶产业日报 2025-11-27 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 10400 | 40 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 58829 | -4201 | | | 合成橡胶1-2价差(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 | 5 | 0 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 2950 | 70 | | 现货市场 | | 10400 | -100 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 | 10350 | -100 | | | 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):上 | 10450 | 东(日,元/吨) -50 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,茂名石化):广 | 10650 | 0 | | | 海(日,元/吨) 基差:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 140 | 东(日,元/吨) -90 | | | | | 布伦特原油(日,美元/桶) 东北亚乙烯价格( ...

率明显提升，但整体市场表现未见明显转好，为控制库存增加，部分企业仍处灵活控产状态，预计短期企 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 业装置运行平稳为主。br2512合约短线预计在10600-11300区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 合成橡胶产业日报 2025-10-20 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) 10840 -85 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) 74828 | | 57827 | | | 合成橡胶12 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term forecast for the br2512 contract is a price fluctuation in the range of 10,600 - 11,250 yuan/ton. With the restart of most previously overhauled cis - butadiene rubber plants, domestic production is expected to increase. Although some plants are under maintenance, others are increasing their production loads. On the raw material side, despite the maintenance plans of some butadiene plants in October, the supply of butadiene remains abundant due to the recovery of previous under - loaded plants and imports. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased significantly during the holiday due to maintenance plans, but it is expected to rise significantly this week as the plants resume operation [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 10,895 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton from the previous period; the position of the main contract is 24,468 lots, down 4,607 lots. The 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber is - 225 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan/ton. The total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber is 3,070 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream prices of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different manufacturers in various regions have declined. For example, the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,050 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is 155 yuan/ton, down 215 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil is 62.39 dollars/barrel, down 0.93 dollars/barrel; the price of WTI crude oil is 58.7 dollars/barrel, down 0.79 dollars/barrel. The price of naphtha CFR Japan is 553 dollars/ton, down 13.75 dollars/ton; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 785 dollars/ton, unchanged; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,010 dollars/ton, down 10 dollars/ton; the market price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 8,575 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.54 million tons/week, up 0.01 million tons/week; the capacity utilization rate is 67.37%, up 0.72 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 27,750 tons, unchanged. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 50.43%, down 3.06 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 13.57 million tons, up 0.65 million tons; the capacity utilization rate is 66.41%, down 3.31 percentage points. The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 544 yuan/ton, up 114 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 3.23 million tons, down 0.14 million tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 26,600 tons, unchanged; the trader's inventory is 5,700 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.03 million pieces, up 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.06 million pieces, up 1.09 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.87 days, down 0.23 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.7 days, down 0.23 days. As of October 9, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 42.15%, a decrease of 17.50 percentage points from the previous period and 36.62 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 41.53%, a decrease of 13.83 percentage points from the previous period and 0.78 percentage points lower than the same period last year [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Some enterprises arranged maintenance during the holiday, which dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate. In September 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles, a 15% increase from August and an 82% increase from the same period last year. From January to September this year, the cumulative sales of the domestic heavy - truck market exceeded 800,000 vehicles, reaching 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20%. In September 2025, the output and capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber both declined slightly. The capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 69.91%, a decrease of 0.49 percentage points from the previous period and an increase of 12.16 percentage points from the same period last year [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the support from the cost and supply side has loosened. Both the synthetic rubber futures and the mainstream supply prices have shown a rapid rise and then a fall. Arbitrageurs are actively entering the market, but the downstream terminal procurement is passive. The overall inventory of production enterprises has decreased, while the inventory of trading enterprises has slightly increased. [2] - Next week, there are expectations of short - term shutdown and maintenance for the butadiene rubber plants of Qixiang Tengda and Maoming Petrochemical, and the butadiene rubber plant of Shandong Yihua is expected to restart. The supply is expected to decrease slightly, but under the weak demand expectation, the inventory of production enterprises may still increase. [2] - In terms of demand, the overall capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires has declined slightly this week due to maintenance in some enterprises at the end of the month, and the overall capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires has also decreased due to maintenance in some enterprises. The overall shipment of enterprises at the end of the month was concentrated, and the finished product inventory decreased. Next week, the resumption of production of maintenance enterprises will boost the overall capacity utilization rate to some extent, but there are also maintenance arrangements at the beginning of the month in some enterprises. It is expected that the overall capacity utilization rate will be slightly adjusted, and the overall improvement space is limited. The short - term of the br2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11380 - 12000. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 11495 yuan/ton, a decrease of 280 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. The position of the main contract was 34820, a decrease of 4870. The 9 - 10 spread of synthetic rubber was 15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 2290 tons, unchanged from the previous period. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 11950 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 11800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai was 11900 yuan/ton, unchanged; that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 11900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of synthetic rubber was 305 yuan/ton, and the basis in Shandong was 130 yuan/ton. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of Brent crude oil was 73.24 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.73 US dollars/barrel; the price of WTI crude oil was 70 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.79 US dollars/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 820 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of naphtha CFR Japan was 608.25 US dollars/ton, an increase of 19 US dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 1090 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the market price of butadiene in Shandong market was 9150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. [2] - The weekly production capacity of butadiene was 14.77 million tons/week, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 70%, an increase of 2.04 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 15700 tons, a decrease of 4300 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 48.16%, an increase of 0.85 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of butadiene rubber was 122,500 tons, a decrease of 16,900 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 67.63%, an increase of 2.42 percentage points. The production profit of butadiene rubber was - 440 yuan/ton, an increase of 192 yuan/ton. The social inventory of butadiene rubber was 32,300 tons, unchanged; the manufacturer's inventory was 24,850 tons, a decrease of 800 tons; the trader's inventory was 7470 tons, an increase of 870 tons. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 75.87%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 65.02%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 1.262 million pieces, and the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 5.523 million pieces, an increase of 108,000 pieces. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 40.95 days, an increase of 0.1 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.55 days, an increase of 0.37 days. [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of July 30, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 31,300 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.09%. [2] - As of July 31, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.98%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.19 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.26%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.97 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.20 percentage points. [2] - In June 2025, China's butadiene rubber export volume was 29,748.90 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.99%; from January to June 2025, the total export volume was 152,812.3 tons, an increase of 35,992.05 tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 30.81%. In June 2025, China's butadiene rubber import volume was 19,183.53 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.38%; from January to June 2025, the total import volume was 138,619.08 tons, an increase of 2537.53 tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.86%. [2]

Report Overview - Report Name: Synthetic Rubber Industry Daily Report 2025-07-30 [1] - Analyst: Lin Jingyi [2] - Qualification Numbers: Futures Practitioner Qualification No. F03139610, Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate No. Z0021558 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Recently, the support from cost and supply side for butadiene rubber has weakened, leading to a rapid rise and fall in both the futures and mainstream supply prices. Arbitrageurs are actively entering the market, but downstream terminal procurement is passive. Production enterprise inventories are generally decreasing, while trade enterprise inventories are slightly increasing. [2] - Next week, there are expectations of short - term shutdown and maintenance for the butadiene rubber units of Qixiang Tengda and Maoming Petrochemical, and the Shandong Yihua butadiene unit is expected to restart. The supply is expected to decrease slightly, but under the weak demand expectation, production enterprise inventories may still increase. [2] - In terms of demand, the production resumption of some unexpectedly shut - down enterprises drove a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises last week. However, near the end of the month, the overall shipment of enterprises fell short of expectations, the finished product inventory increased slightly, and the overall order performance was insufficient. Some enterprises may have short - term maintenance plans from late July to early August, and the short - term capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises is expected to decline. The br2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,650 - 12,200. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber was 11,775 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan; the position volume of the main contract was 39,690, a decrease of 1,446. The 9 - 10 spread of synthetic rubber was 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 2,290 tons, unchanged. [2] 2. Spot Market - The mainstream prices of BR9000 butadiene rubber from different manufacturers all decreased. For example, the price from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai was 11,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan; from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 11,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan. The basis of synthetic rubber was 175 yuan/ton. [2] - The price of Brent crude oil was 72.51 dollars/barrel, an increase of 2.47 dollars; WTI crude oil was 69.21 dollars/barrel, an increase of 2.5 dollars. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 820 dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of naphtha CFR Japan was 589.25 dollars/ton, an increase of 10.75 dollars; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 1,090 dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 dollars; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan. [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 14.77 million tons/week, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate was 70%, an increase of 2.04 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 15,700 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 48.16%, an increase of 0.85 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of butadiene rubber was 122,500 tons, a decrease of 16,900 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate was 67.63%, an increase of 2.42 percentage points. The production profit of butadiene rubber was - 440 yuan/ton, an increase of 192 yuan; the social inventory was 32,300 tons, unchanged; the manufacturer's inventory was 24,850 tons, a decrease of 800 tons; the trader's inventory was 7,470 tons, an increase of 870 tons. [2] 4. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 75.87%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 65.02%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, an increase of 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, an increase of 1.08 million pieces. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 40.95 days, and the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.55 days, an increase of 0.37 days. As of July 30, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 31,300 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.09%. [2] 5. Industry News - As of July 24, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.06%, a month - on - month increase of 1.93 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.06 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.23%, a month - on - month increase of 0.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.98 percentage points. The production of some unexpectedly shut - down enterprises basically resumed, driving a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. [2] - In June 2025, China's butadiene rubber export volume was 29,748.90 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.99%; from January to June 2025, the total export volume was 152,812.3 tons, an increase of 35,992.05 tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 30.81%. In June 2025, China's butadiene rubber import volume was 19,183.53 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.38%; from January to June 2025, the total import volume was 138,619.08 tons, an increase of 2,537.53 tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.86%. [2]