来源：滚动播报 美联储柯林斯：对9月份失业率上升并不感到意外。 ...

11月11日，《金融时报》消息，英国家统计局发布的2025年6-9月期间，英失业率升至5%，雇员总数较 去年9月同期下降0.4%，从数值看同期约减少了11.7万个岗位；工资增速放缓，周工资年度增速从5-8月 的4.8%降至6-9月4.6%。该失业率数字为近10年来（不含疫情期间）最高值，也高于此前经济学家4.9% 的预测值；同时，该数字的披露对于即将于11月26日宣布今年秋季预算案的英政府而言不啻于一次打 击。预计财相里夫斯将在秋季预算中宣布增税举措以弥补约300亿英镑的财政漏洞。 智库决议基金经济学家康敏奈提（Nye Cominetti）认为英国劳动力市场呈现普遍疲软情况，呼吁英财相 在其即将宣布的秋季预算中避免给雇主增加更多成本并保障工薪阶层利益。 许多经济学家认为相较于进一步提升影响就业的税收，选择上调所得税税率造成的经济负面影响可能更 小，不过上调所得税有违工党的竞选纲领。雇主们认为如果政府选择推出限制薪资牺牲计划税收优惠的 政策，预计这种政策会造成和政府宣布上调雇主的国民贡献税率同样的效果（即雇主招聘成本上升，影 响招聘意愿）。 英工作和养老金大臣麦克法登（Pat McFadden）表示失业率数据显 ...

Group 1 - The S&P/ASX 200 index declined by 0.2% to 8,792.90 points, primarily due to weakness in the materials sector [1] - Technology stocks also contributed to the decline, influenced by concerns over high valuations in the U.S. tech sector [1] - The S&P/NZX 50 index in New Zealand fell by 0.3% to 13,561.03 points, reflecting economic weakness [1] Group 2 - New Zealand's unemployment rate rose to its highest level in nine years in the third quarter, driven by a reluctance among businesses to hire new workers due to a sluggish economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current rise in unemployment rate is a cause for concern according to Federal Reserve Governor Cook [1] Group 1 - The unemployment rate has seen an increase recently [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. federal government shutdown has lasted three weeks, becoming the second longest in history, with potential to extend into November, surpassing the previous record of 35 days during Trump's first term [1] - The shutdown is causing a "black hole" in economic data, with key releases paused, posing a direct challenge to the Federal Reserve's decision-making for its upcoming meeting [1][2] - Labor market data will be significantly distorted, with an estimated 750,000 federal employees forced to take unpaid leave, potentially raising the unemployment rate by 44 basis points [2] Group 2 - The economic impact of the shutdown is estimated to reduce GDP by approximately 0.25%, with most effects expected to be reversed in the following quarter after the government reopens [2] - The core issue of the shutdown revolves around disagreements over healthcare subsidies, with Democrats seeking relief for 22 million Americans facing rising insurance premiums, while Republicans refuse to negotiate [2][3] - The shutdown is causing widespread disruptions, including significant flight delays, with nearly 20,000 flights affected between October 18 and 20, highlighting the broader societal impact [3]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that Hong Kong's unemployment rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 3.9% in the third quarter, reaching a three-year high, with significant challenges in the construction and retail sectors [1] Employment Data - The unemployment rate in the construction industry is at 7.2%, while the retail sector stands at 5.3% [1] - The unemployment rate in the restaurant industry remained stable at 6.4%, and the financial sector saw a slight improvement, increasing by 0.3 percentage points to 2.9% [1] - The underemployment rate remained stable at 1.6% [1] Future Projections - The overall unemployment rate is expected to rise further, potentially exceeding 4% by the end of 2025 due to macroeconomic uncertainties and structural challenges in the restaurant and retail sectors [1] - Despite recent positive trends in retail sales, the rising unemployment rate may negatively impact consumer sentiment [1] Retail Sales Impact - Retail sales growth is projected to slow to 2% year-on-year in September [1] - High vacancy rates in office buildings may negatively affect companies like Link REIT and Wharf Real Estate Investment Company [1]

Core Viewpoint - Australia's unemployment rate rose to 4.5% in September, the highest level since November 2021, indicating a cooling labor market [1] Labor Market Data - The seasonally adjusted employment increased by approximately 14,900 people month-on-month and by about 1.3% year-on-year, reaching 14.64 million [1] - The number of unemployed individuals rose by approximately 33,900 month-on-month and by 12.6% year-on-year, totaling 684,000 [1] - Among the unemployed, the number of men increased by about 24,000 and women by approximately 10,000 [1] Labor Participation Rate - The labor participation rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 67%, slightly below the historical high of 67.2% recorded earlier this year [1] Economic Implications - Economists suggest that the latest data indicates a cooling labor market, with the rising participation rate potentially reflecting more individuals entering the workforce due to cost-of-living pressures [1] - The unexpected rise in the unemployment rate raises the likelihood of the Reserve Bank of Australia considering another interest rate cut in November, following three rate cuts earlier this year [1]

Core Insights - The decline in net immigration is a significant factor preventing a more pronounced increase in the unemployment rate [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson highlighted that the decrease in net immigration plays a crucial role in stabilizing the labor market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve official Barkin indicates that the unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly [1] Group 1 - The unemployment rate is projected to experience a minor increase, reflecting potential shifts in the labor market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The risk of a sharp increase in unemployment necessitates action from the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve, represented by Kashkari, acknowledges the potential for a significant rise in unemployment [1] - The statement indicates a proactive stance by the Federal Reserve in response to economic indicators [1]