证券公司Davy首席经济学家Kevin Timoney表示，中央统计局的上调修正主要反映了估算过程中的 统计特征，而不是爱尔兰劳动力市场状况在2025年恶化的实际信号。预计这些趋势将在下半年进一步缓 解。还有一种解释是，由于关税导致的爱尔兰及全球经济政策不确定性加剧，导致失业率的上升。但我 们认为统计因素更可能解释失业率的上升。他指出，爱尔兰经济中的劳动力需求依然强劲。 （原标题：Davy公司称，统计因素导致爱尔兰失业率上升） 《爱尔兰时报》8月11日报道，根据中央统计局上周发布的数据，7月份失业率升至4.9%，较4月份 的4.6%有所上升，为三年多以来的最高水平。失业率增长是在美国关税可能引发经济放缓的背景下出 现的。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Australian unemployment rate has risen to 4.3% in June, marking a continuation of weak data over two months, which puts pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) regarding its decision not to cut interest rates this month [1] Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate increase to 4.3% indicates a cooling job market, which may lead the RBA to prepare for potential criticism as the unemployment rate is expected to rise further in the coming months [1] - Despite recent interest rate hikes aimed at curbing inflation, Australia has managed to maintain a low unemployment rate, which the RBA aims to protect [1]

金十数据7月4日讯，瑞士6月份的失业率小幅上升，但这是在5月份的失业率修正（由2.9%修正至 2.8%）后才出现的。劳动力市场状况一直在走软，但这与大多数主要经济体在过去一年中面临的情况 相符。 瑞士6月份的失业率小幅上升 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is expected to show signs of slowing down in June, with an anticipated unemployment rate increase to 4.3%, the highest in three and a half years [1] - Non-farm payrolls are projected to increase by 110,000 in June, down from 139,000 in May and below the three-month average of 135,000 [1][2] - The average hourly wage growth is expected to remain steady at 0.3%, with an annualized increase of 3.9% [1] Group 2 - The proportion of consumers who believe "job opportunities are plentiful" fell to the lowest level in over four years in June [4] - Economists predict that the unemployment rate will continue to rise in the second half of the year, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to restart its easing cycle in September [4] - The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% in June, with a 74.7% probability of keeping rates unchanged in July and a 71.5% chance of a 25 basis point cut in September [4][5] Group 3 - A rising trend in layoffs is contributing to a decrease in re-employment opportunities, which explains the expected rise in the unemployment rate [3] - The labor market is facing challenges due to hiring fatigue, while layoffs remain low as employers continue to struggle with recruitment post-pandemic [2] Group 4 - The healthcare sector is likely to remain a key employment driver, while the leisure and hospitality industry may see reduced job applications due to fears of deportation among immigrants [6] - The manufacturing sector continues to be constrained by tariffs, and the trend of mild reductions in federal government jobs persists [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a slowdown in the U.S. labor market, with expectations for June's non-farm payrolls to increase by 110,000, down from 139,000 in May, and an unemployment rate expected to rise slightly from 4.2% to 4.3% [1][2] - Economists are divided on whether the unemployment rate will rise, with most leading indicators suggesting an increase, as the number of continuing unemployment claims has risen to nearly 2 million, the highest level since November 2021 [2][3] - The private sector unexpectedly cut 33,000 jobs in June, marking the first monthly job loss since March 2023, indicating a cooling job market [2][4] Group 2 - The labor force participation rate fell to 62.4% in May, and if this trend continues, it may keep the unemployment rate stable at 4.2% for June [3][4] - Economists have noted that the estimates for June's non-farm payrolls have the narrowest range since 2018, reflecting a consensus that job growth will slow [4][5] - The leisure and hospitality sector showed strong hiring in May, but this trend may reverse in June due to a slowdown in consumer spending on travel-related services [4][5] Group 3 - The potential impact of trade policies and immigration changes may influence the unemployment rate, with some economists suggesting that reduced labor force expansion could help keep the unemployment rate lower [2][3] - Market reactions to the upcoming employment report are anticipated, with expectations that a disappointing report could lead to a decline in stock prices and an increase in bets on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [6][8] - Gold prices are also being closely monitored, with expectations that a weak employment report could support gold prices, while a strong report may lead to a decline [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The low hiring rates indicate that if layoffs increase, the unemployment rate will rise rapidly [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted the relationship between hiring rates and unemployment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Barr stated that tariffs could potentially lead to economic slowdown and increased unemployment, indicating that monetary policy is currently in a favorable position while the Fed observes economic developments [1] Group 1 - Tariffs may contribute to economic slowdown [1] - Potential rise in unemployment due to tariffs [1] - Federal Reserve is in a favorable position regarding monetary policy [1]

瑞士央行：失业率可能继续小幅上升。 ...

Core Insights - The Swiss National Bank is prepared to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary [1] - GDP growth is projected to be between 1% and 1.5% for both 2025 and 2026 [1] - The unemployment rate may continue to rise slightly [1]

Core Viewpoint - The "Bond King" Gundlach suggests that if unemployment rises, the Federal Reserve is more likely to implement multiple interest rate cuts [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has been dealing with data discrepancies in recent years [1] - Understanding Powell's cautious approach to policy decisions is essential [1] - It is evident that the Federal Reserve anticipates that the next policy action will be a rate cut [1]