【圣路易斯联储行长Musalem：美联储需要继续抑制通胀】智通财经11月14日电，圣路易斯联邦储备银 行行长Alberto Musalem表示，鉴于通胀仍高于美联储2%的目标，决策者在进一步降息方面应保持谨 慎。Musalem表示，他支持美联储近期的降息举措以支持劳动力市场，但重申政策制定者需要维持限制 性的利率水平，以抑制居高不下的通胀。Musalem周四在印第安纳州Evansville出席活动时表示："我们 需要谨慎行事，因为我认为在不使货币政策过于宽松的情况下，进一步放松的空间有限。"Musalem表 示，政策介于温和限制性和中性之间。他表示："我们需要继续抑制高于目标水平的通胀，同时为劳动 力市场提供一定支持。" ...

Core Viewpoint - The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, announced that the upcoming autumn budget on November 26 will focus on controlling inflation and creating conditions for the Bank of England to lower key interest rates [1][2] Group 1: Budget and Economic Policy - The autumn budget aims to control government debt while ensuring public service spending [1] - Reeves emphasized that her decisions will focus on reducing inflation to support economic growth and improve living costs for the public [1] - There is a possibility of increasing household taxes, as many economists believe that under constrained fiscal space, tax hikes may be the only viable option to achieve debt reduction, maintain public services, and stabilize the macroeconomy [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Expectations - The market widely expects the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee to keep the benchmark interest rate at 4.00% during the meeting on November 7 [1] - Despite recent weak economic data opening the door for potential rate cuts, most economists believe policymakers will wait for more sustained evidence of cooling inflation and details from the autumn budget [2] - Current UK inflation is still nearly double the 2% target, leading to a cautious stance from the Bank of England [2] - Barclays and Goldman Sachs suggest that policymakers might consider a 25 basis point cut to 3.75% due to recent disappointing inflation, employment, and output data, although this expectation is not mainstream [2] - Investors are currently betting that the December 18 meeting will be a more likely window for rate cuts, with the probability of a December cut rising to nearly 60% [2] - The Bank of England faces challenges related to "data dependence" and "policy coordination," with short-term interest rate paths being influenced not only by inflation trends but also by the clarity of fiscal positions [2]

Core Viewpoint - The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Reeves, is committed to controlling inflation and alleviating the cost of living pressures through a series of measures in the upcoming budget, aiming to create room for further interest rate cuts by the Bank of England [1] Group 1: Budget Measures - Reeves plans to implement targeted price measures in the budget to reduce household bills and lower living costs [1] - The Treasury is considering options such as reducing electricity costs to help decrease overall inflation [1] Group 2: Policy Review - Reeves will meet with cabinet ministers to review decisions in their respective policy areas that may contribute to inflation or rising costs [1]

Core Viewpoint - New York Fed President Williams supports interest rate cuts to balance inflation control and employment support [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - Williams indicated that a "moderate reduction in rates" and "slight easing of policy restrictions" are reasonable to ensure healthy labor market development while applying downward pressure on inflation above target [1] - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4%-4.25% due to rising risks in the labor market, despite the U.S. inflation rate remaining above the 2% target [1] - The dot plot from the September meeting suggests that the Fed may cut rates two more times by the end of the year [1] Group 2: Employment and Inflation Balance - Williams emphasized the need to balance inflation control and employment support, expressing concern over the potential for a slowdown in job growth to spread excessively [1] - He noted that there is still work to be done regarding high inflation, as it remains distant from the 2% target [1] Group 3: Tariff Impact - Williams stated that some factors previously causing high inflation concerns have dissipated, and the impact of tariffs has been less than expected, with no signs of accumulating inflationary pressures [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%, aligning with market expectations, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and the first reduction in nine months since December 2024 [4][21]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25% [4][21]. - The decision reflects a shift in focus from inflation control to supporting employment as the labor market shows signs of cooling [18][21]. Economic Indicators - Recent indicators suggest a slowdown in economic activity during the first half of the year, with a stable low unemployment rate but a deceleration in job growth [6][21]. - Inflation remains slightly elevated, prompting the committee to closely monitor risks associated with its dual mandate [6][21]. Future Rate Projections - FOMC participants predict an additional 50 basis points cut in 2025, followed by 25 basis points cuts in 2026 and 2027 [21]. - The median GDP growth forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.6%, 1.8%, and 1.9%, respectively, showing an upward revision from previous estimates [21]. Voting Dynamics - The decision saw dissent from member Milan, who advocated for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut, while other members expressed varying views on the extent of future cuts [8][21]. - Among the 19 officials, opinions varied on the number of cuts, with some suggesting a total reduction of up to 150 basis points within the year [21]. Powell's Remarks - Powell characterized the rate cut as a risk management decision, indicating no immediate need for rapid adjustments to rates, suggesting a cautious approach rather than a sustained easing cycle [18][21]. - He emphasized that the Fed's actions are data-driven and not influenced by political pressures, despite external criticisms [19][21].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the appreciation of the euro is having a significant dampening effect on inflation [1]

Core Insights - The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Villeroy stated that the appreciation of the euro is having a significant dampening effect on inflation [1] Group 1 - The euro's appreciation is contributing to a notable reduction in inflationary pressures [1]

Core Points - President Trump visited the Federal Reserve and pressured Chairman Powell regarding the costs of a renovation project, which has escalated to approximately $3.1 billion [1][3][4] - The interaction between Trump and Powell was described as awkward, with Trump previously using derogatory terms to refer to Powell [3][4] - Powell disagreed with Trump's claims about the renovation costs, clarifying that Trump included costs from a completed project from five years ago [4] Group 1: Federal Reserve Renovation Project - The renovation project costs have increased from $2.7 billion to approximately $3.1 billion, drawing scrutiny from Republican officials [3][4] - The project had not received significant media attention until recent commitments from Trump administration officials to investigate it [4] - Powell has faced criticism over the cost overruns, with White House officials considering this as a potential reason for his dismissal [4] Group 2: Economic Policy and Interest Rates - Trump advocates for interest rate cuts to stimulate economic activity, while Powell maintains that current rates should remain to control inflation, influenced by Trump's tariffs [4] - Powell indicated that without the impact of Trump's tariffs, the Federal Reserve would have already lowered interest rates [4]

Core Viewpoint - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair is underway, with Kevin Hassett currently leading the race, amid concerns about the independence of the Fed due to President Trump's dissatisfaction with current Chair Jerome Powell's policies [1][2][3]. Group 1: Candidates and Selection Process - Kevin Hassett, the current Director of the National Economic Council, is seen as a frontrunner for the next Fed Chair, with former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh also in contention [1][3]. - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is involved in the selection process and may also be considered for the position if other candidates do not meet expectations [1][3]. - The selection process is expected to be swift, as President Trump is highly involved and tends to act quickly once a decision is made [3]. Group 2: Political Implications - Trump's public criticism of Powell and his call for interest rate cuts have heightened concerns about the Fed's independence, which is crucial for controlling inflation and maintaining the dollar's status [1][2]. - Hassett's alignment with Trump's views raises questions about how this "service to the president" attitude might affect the traditionally independent role of the Fed Chair [2][3]. Group 3: Economic Context - The Fed's current stance on interest rates has been a point of contention, with Trump labeling Powell as "Too Late" for not cutting rates sooner, despite a strong economy and job market [5][8]. - There are indications that businesses are beginning to pass on trade-related costs to consumers, which could influence the Fed's decisions in upcoming meetings [5][8].

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) should continue to adopt an accommodative monetary policy if the downside growth risks further hinder the process of controlling inflation [1] Group 1 - ECB Governing Council member Panetta emphasized the need for ongoing monetary easing in response to increasing downside growth risks [1]