智通财经APP获悉，随着企业逐步消化财政大臣雷切尔·里夫斯11月公布的增税预算带来的影响，英国 一些最大公司的负责人预测，新的一年将面临一系列新的挑战。来自金融、住房、博彩和酒店等行业的 首席执行官们表示，他们正准备应对人工智能信任问题、更多的网络攻击以及来自首相基尔·斯塔默政 府的压力。据其中一位CEO称，削减成本也将提上日程。 这家连锁酒吧的董事长表示，"生存"将是明年的一个关键主题，因为酒店业公司要应对包括雇主税增加 在内的成本上升。马丁说："销售上的任何小问题都会导致真正的问题。"他经常在交易所声明中批评政 府。 鉴于"对政府对待商业的方式存在很多不满"，马丁预测，2026年将会有推动力劝说工党"改变策略，理 解支持企业哲学的益处"。 沃达丰集团，玛格丽塔·德拉·瓦莱 这家电信集团的CEO预测，明年人工智能将对"客户体验产生真正的影响"。随着聊天机器人成为成熟的 客户代理，人工员工将留下来解决更复杂或更棘手的问题。 "最成功的英国公司，将是那些不仅投资高质量人工智能技术，同时专注于在最关键时刻提供出色、个 性化人工关怀能力的公司，"她说。 在经历了高税收、国内经济停滞、美国关税以及对人工智能泡沫的担忧 ...

除了传统的海空装备采购外，日本还将大量军费投入到新型作战能力和安全韧性建设中。据规划，2026 财年防卫建设将重点加强无人机的攻击与侦察能力，力求在智能化作战领域抢占先机，打造察打一体的 无人机作战体系。 随着军费的急剧上涨，日本的军备建设进入了加速阶段，其装备采购与能力建设也越来越具实战性和针 对性。例如，在2025财年的补充预算中，日本防卫省特别为关键装备采购分配了8472亿日元（约合398 亿元人民币）。其中，1222亿日元将用于采购护卫舰和潜艇，以增强海上自卫队的远洋作战和水下威慑 能力，进一步支持其在周边海域的军事行动。另外，还有566亿日元用于导弹采购，重点改进型03式中 程地对空导弹将部署到与台湾接近的与那国岛。 回顾历史，1976年，日本时任首相三木武夫曾规定防卫费占GDP比例不能超过1%。这一规定成为了约 束日本军事扩张的重要限制，持续了几十年。然而，自2012财年以来，日本的防卫费便开始了连续增 长，特别是自2017年安倍晋三政府提出强化防卫能力的口号后，军费的上涨幅度更是逐年加大，直至 2025财年达到了13年连续增长的罕见局面。从国际的角度来看，防卫费占GDP比例达到2%是北约成员 国 ...

在10月份，由于潜在买家因担忧预算案中针对英国房地产市场增税而暂缓决策，英国住房贷款需求略有 下降。英国央行周一数据显示，抵押贷款批准数量从9月的65,647件降至65,018件，高于经济学家预测的 64,500件，表明潜在需求仍具韧性。 这些数据进一步证明，预算案公布前的市场猜测对楼市产生了抑制作用。此前传闻财政大臣雷切尔.里 维斯将对高价房产征收财富税以填补预算缺口，此举可能对伦敦和东南部地区的业主造成尤其严重的冲 击。 英央行另一组数据显示，10月份消费者净借款额为11亿英镑，低于前月的14亿英镑。随着消费者为黑色 星期五折扣和圣诞购物季做准备，11月借款额可能有所回升。 而11月26日公布的预算声明并未如市场担忧那般对房地产市场进行全面打击，主要措施仅针对价值超过 200万英镑(约合260万美元)的房产开征新税。这提振了市场对未来数月楼市可能重拾动力的预期。 对借款人而言，通胀似乎已见顶，且英国央行预计将在本月晚些时候进一步降息。 10月份英国家庭向银行和建房互助会账户额外存入68亿英镑，高于此前六个月59亿英镑的平均水平。 据英央行统计，家庭当月向计息活期存款账户增存55亿英镑，向免税个人储蓄账户存 ...

Core Viewpoint - The British pound is experiencing a slight decline against major currencies, influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Bank of England and new tax announcements from the UK government [1][3]. Economic Indicators - The UK job market shows signs of weakness, with employment growth slowing and inflation rates decreasing, leading investors to anticipate a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England to 3.75% [3]. - The UK government plans to implement a tax increase of £26 billion by the fiscal year 2029-30 to address fiscal deficits, which has contributed to a decline in UK government bond yields [3]. Market Dynamics - The GBP/USD exchange rate is stabilizing around 1.3230, with the dollar weakening due to expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in the upcoming policy meeting [3]. - The US dollar index (DXY) has reached a two-week low of approximately 99.30, reflecting a broader trend of dollar weakness [3][4]. Technical Analysis - The GBP/USD pair is consolidating around the 1.3224 level, with a bullish reversal pattern forming, although the 200-day EMA at 1.3265 remains a significant resistance point [6]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 52.75, indicating a neutral to bullish momentum, suggesting potential upward movement if the 200-day EMA is decisively broken [6].

Core Points - The UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced a fall budget plan to raise taxes by £26 billion ($34 billion), increasing the tax-to-GDP ratio to 38.3% [1] Tax Measures Summary - Freezing personal income tax and employer National Insurance thresholds for three years starting from the fiscal year 2028-29, expected to raise £8 billion [1] - Imposing National Insurance on pension contributions made through salary sacrifice, projected to generate £4.7 billion [1] - Increasing tax rates on dividends, property, and savings income by 2 percentage points, anticipated to yield £2.1 billion [1] - Reducing the main tax rate for depreciation deductions in corporate tax, expected to raise £1.5 billion [1] - Introducing a mileage-based fee for pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles starting April 2028, projected to generate £1.4 billion [1] - Reforming the gambling tax system, expected to raise £1.1 billion [1]

秋季预算正式公布之前，OBR意外提前发布了相关文件，该部门已对此事展开调查，并对"技术错误"道 歉。受该消息影响，英国基准10年期国债收益率上涨4个基点，达到4.535%。 当地时间11月26日，英国财政大臣雷切尔·里夫斯（Rachel Reeves）公布了其在任上的第二份财政预算 案，其中一项重要措施就是将个人所得税起征点冻结期延长三年。 此前，起征点通常随着消费者物价指数每年提升。2021年，保守党政府冻结了起征点，而随着工资持续 上涨，越来越多的人被纳入更高的税率区间，并缴纳更多个人所得税。英国预算责任办公室（OBR） 称，此举将为政府带来80亿英镑的收入。 一年前，里夫斯在其秋季预算案中提出了通过加税筹集400亿英镑的计划，引发工党支持率大幅下滑。 彼时，里夫斯曾承诺不再加税。如今，其所在的工党政府似乎已经放弃了这一承诺。 放弃直接提高所得税 在公布预算前的讲话中，里夫斯称，公众对"变革步伐缓慢感到沮丧"，将"采取公平且必要的措施"解决 生活成本危机。同时，她承诺不会推行紧缩政策，不会放任公共开支失控，也不会进行更多鲁莽的借 贷。 此前，政治新闻网英国版援引知情人士消息称，里夫斯正在酝酿一项折中的方案 ...

Core Viewpoint - UK businesses are expressing strong concerns over potential increases in corporate tax rates, warning that such measures could lead to significant reductions in investment and operational capacity in the country [1][2]. Group 1: Business Concerns - CEOs from various sectors, including airports and hospitality, are voicing worries that increased corporate tax burdens will undermine consumer confidence and hinder government growth initiatives [1][2]. - Stewart Wingate, managing director of Gatwick Airport, indicated that a proposed increase in corporate tax rates could jeopardize a £2.2 billion expansion project, highlighting unprecedented cost pressures that may force a reevaluation of investment plans [2][3]. - Jon Hendry Pickup, CEO of Butlin's, warned that substantial tax increases would compel the company to cut back on investments and potentially lead to layoffs [2]. Group 2: Policy Recommendations - Andy Briggs, CEO of Phoenix Group Holdings, called for clearer government incentives to direct pension capital towards infrastructure and growth equity, expressing concern over rising pension costs due to proposed salary sacrifice reforms [3]. - Steven Fine, CEO of Peel Hunt Ltd., suggested that raising income tax could provide the UK government with the necessary fiscal space to stimulate economic growth and allow for potential interest rate cuts by the Bank of England [4]. - George Weston, CEO of Associated British Foods, advocated for the removal of tax exemptions for low-value goods from brands like Temu and Shein, arguing that these brands contribute little to the UK economy [5]. Group 3: Industry-Specific Insights - Lisa Jacobs, CEO of Funding Circle Holdings, emphasized the need for increased funding for growth assurance programs to support small businesses, highlighting the importance of policy stability for investment confidence [5]. - Nathan Coe, CEO of Auto Trader Group, urged the government not to impose punitive taxes on electric vehicle owners and to enhance support for charging infrastructure, aligning with the government's net-zero and electric vehicle promotion goals [6]. - Steve Hare, CEO of Sage Plc, viewed the upcoming budget as a crucial opportunity to accelerate the UK's digital transformation and embrace artificial intelligence to boost productivity [6].

Core Viewpoint - UK inflation has declined for the first time in seven months, leading the Bank of England to consider a potential interest rate cut before Christmas [1] Economic Data Summary - October CPI increased by 3.6% year-on-year, down from 3.8% in September, slightly above the market economists' expectation of 3.5% but in line with the Bank of England's forecast [1] - Service sector inflation decreased to 4.5%, which is a key indicator closely monitored by the Bank of England and is also below its predictions [1] Monetary Policy Implications - The data suggests a possibility for the Bank of England to lower interest rates in its next meeting on December 18, following a decision to maintain rates earlier in the month [1] - The path to a rate cut may face significant challenges, particularly with the Labour government's upcoming autumn budget announcement [1] Government Fiscal Measures - Chancellor Reeves has promised to introduce fiscal plans aimed at curbing high inflation and is considering a range of tax increases, which could complicate the decision-making environment for the Bank of England [1]

Market Dynamics - The stock market momentum has weakened, with indices like Nasdaq dropping over 2% and European markets declining approximately 1% [1] - President Trump signed a bill approved by Congress, effectively ending the government shutdown, but the market seems to have already priced in this outcome [1] - The primary concern now is whether upcoming official data will support or oppose the Federal Reserve's further easing policies, particularly the expected rate cut in December [1] - Fed Chair Powell indicated that a third risk management rate cut is not guaranteed, yet the market maintains a high certainty (about 70%) for this outcome [1] Interest Rate Outlook - The probability of a rate cut in December has fallen below 50% for the first time, as indicated by ICMarkets [3] - Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari expressed a wait-and-see attitude towards a December rate cut, opposing the October cut due to strong economic fundamentals and high inflation [3] - Cleveland Fed's Harmack reiterated support for pausing rate cuts next month, emphasizing that inflation concerns outweigh labor market worries [3] - The 30-year Treasury auction saw a tail of $25 billion, with long-end performance being weak, while U.S. Treasury yields generally rose by 2.2 to 5 basis points [3] Currency Movements - The euro to dollar exchange rate rebounded due to interest rate influences but faced resistance near 1.1630 due to U.S. risk aversion [4] - The dollar/yen momentum encountered resistance at the 155 mark, indicating a loss of support for the dollar index [4] - The Chinese yuan appreciated to 7.096 against the dollar, marking its strongest level since October 2024, although weaker-than-expected monthly data limited further appreciation [4] - The euro to pound exchange rate rose to approximately 0.885, the highest since April 2023, amid speculation regarding the UK budget and tax rate adjustments [4] Employment and Economic Reports - The monthly employment report from KPMG and REC indicated the first growth in temporary worker paychecks in 16 months, while permanent job recruitment trends have slowed for the fourth consecutive month [5] - Despite economic weakness and uncertainty surrounding the government budget, employers remain cautious about new hiring [5] - A joint statement from the U.S. government and four Latin American countries announced a reduction in tariffs on various domestically produced goods, including bananas, coffee, and beef, aimed at alleviating the cost of living crisis [5]

Economic Growth - The UK economy experienced minimal growth in Q3, with GDP increasing by only 0.1%, down from 0.3% in Q2 and below the forecasted 0.2% [1][3] - In September alone, the economy contracted by 0.1%, as weak growth in the services sector was offset by a sharp decline in manufacturing [1] Jaguar Land Rover Incident - A significant factor impacting September's economic performance was a cyberattack on Jaguar Land Rover, leading to a production halt of over five weeks and a nearly 30% drop in automotive manufacturing output [7] - This incident directly contributed to a 0.17 percentage point decline in GDP for September [7] Consumer and Business Sentiment - Consumer and business spending has been sluggish due to concerns over potential tax increases in the upcoming budget announcement by Chancellor Rachel Reeves [3][5] - The economic outlook is further dampened by expectations of significant tax hikes, which could reduce GDP by approximately 0.2% by 2026 [3] Trade Performance - UK exports to the US fell by 11.4% (approximately £500 million), reaching the lowest level since January 2022, largely due to tariffs imposed by the US [8][9] - Overall, UK exports decreased by 0.1% in Q3, while imports declined by 0.3% [11]