You might think the war in the Middle East and monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve wouldn't have much of a connection. You would be wrong. Fed watchers and futures markets are suddenly pricing in fewer rate cuts in 2026, partly as a result of the economic impact of the ongoing Iran war. Put differently, they're beginning to predict that the Fed's target interest rate -- the short-term federal funds rate, which sets the tone for all other interest rates -- will be higher by the end of 2026. W ...

据CME"美联储观察"：美联储到3月降息25个基点的概率为4.1%，维持利率不变的概率为95.9%。美联 储到4月累计降息25个基点的概率16.4%，维持利率不变的概率为83%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 0.5%。到6月累计降息25个基点的概率为44%。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Happy Friday, traders. Welcome to our weekly market wrap, where we take a look back at these last five trading days with a focus on the market news, economic data, and headlines that had the most impact on gold prices and other key correlated assets— and may continue to in the future. Here’s what you need to know: Thin holiday liquidity and broad liquidation pressure pushed gold to a weekly low near $4,860 before buyers stepped back in and rebuilt positions. Fed meeting minutes reinforced a split comm ...

据CME"美联储观察"：美联储到3月降息25个基点的概率为5.9%，维持利率不变的概率为94.1%。美联 储到4月累计降息25个基点的概率20.5%，维持利率不变的概率为78.5%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 1.0%。到6月累计降息25个基点的概率为49.8%。 ...

据CME"美联储观察"：美联储到3月降息25个基点的概率为7.9%，维持利率不变的概率为92.1%。美联 储到4月累计降息25个基点的概率23.6%，维持利率不变的概率为75.0%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 1.5%。到6月累计降息25个基点的概率为50.0%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strengthening of the US dollar following the President's Day holiday, with inflationary pressures attributed to tariffs as noted by the Chicago Fed's Goolsbee [1] - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain interest rates steady in March and April, with a potential rate cut in June [1] - Upcoming releases of inflation, GDP, and labor indicators are anticipated to influence market sentiment, with cautious sentiment expected to dominate prior to these announcements [1] Group 2 - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index and GDP data are expected to recalibrate market expectations regarding US monetary policy in the short term [1] - The Wall Street Journal Dollar Index has risen by 0.2%, with the dollar appreciating by 0.3% against both the euro and the Swiss franc [1]

据CME"美联储观察"：美联储到3月降息25个基点的概率为7.8%，维持利率不变的概率为92.2%。美联 储到4月累计降息25个基点的概率为25.3%，维持利率不变的概率为73.1%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 1.6%。到6月累计降息25个基点的概率为52.6%。 ...

Economic Outlook - Economists are optimistic about inflation moving towards the 2% target as tariff effects and labor market pressures ease, although further confirmation is needed before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) resumes rate cuts [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% year-over-year in January, down from a 2.7% increase in December, marking the lowest rate since May [10][21] - Core inflation decreased to a 2.5% annual increase from 2.6% in December, the lowest since March 2021, indicating a potential stabilization in price trends [11][22] Inflation Trends - Headline CPI inflation was softer than expected in January, providing a positive surprise at the start of the year, with residual seasonality and delayed price adjustments affecting previous forecasts [2][12] - Certain food items experienced significant inflation, such as canned vegetables at 5.5%, while categories like eggs and pork chops saw deflation of -7% and -4.1% respectively [4][9] - The report indicated that tariff-induced price hikes have not fully worked through the data, suggesting that inflation pressures may still be present but are closer to resolution [4] Market Reactions - Stock futures rose slightly following the inflation report, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 each up about 0.1% in early trading [6] - Treasury yields fell after the report, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury decreasing to 4.09% from 4.11% [6] Federal Reserve Considerations - Softer inflation readings may provide the Federal Reserve with the flexibility to assess economic conditions before making further interest rate decisions [7] - The CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates a 70% probability of a rate cut at the June meeting, up from 66% prior to the report [8] - Federal Reserve officials remain cautious about inflation, with some expressing concerns that inflation could stabilize around 3% rather than returning to the 2% target [14]

钛媒体App 2月13日消息，CPI公布前，据CME"美联储观察"：美联储到3月降息25个基点的概率为 9.7%，维持利率不变的概率为90.3%。美联储到4月累计降息25个基点的概率28.1%，维持利率不变的概 率为69.7%，累计降息50个基点的概率为2.2%。到6月累计降息25个基点的概率为49.4%。（广角观察） ...

每经AI快讯，2月13日，据CME"美联储观察"：美联储到3月降息25个基点的概率为7.8%，维持利率不 变的概率为92.2%。美联储到4月累计降息25个基点的概率25.3%，维持利率不变的概率为73.1%，累计 降息50个基点的概率为1.6%。到6月累计降息25个基点的概率为49.9%。 每日经济新闻 ...