美国的劳动力数据为华尔街提供了大量数字，可用来支持该国经济过热——或危险地降温的论点。12月 份的新增就业岗位低于预期，且之前的数据被下修。然而，失业率降幅超过预期，且薪资增长走高。这 些数据促使投资者加大对美联储将维持利率不变的押注，据芝商所的FedWatch工具显示，相关几率从 88%升至95%。 来源：滚动播报 ...

来源：滚动播报 法兴银行美国利率策略主管苏巴德拉·拉贾帕评美国非农：目前的关注重点主要集中在失业率上，因为 就业增长的速度一直在放缓。失业率的下降以及工资的提高使得美联储在1月份维持利率不变的理由更 加充分。债券市场对这一重要的数据指标反应却较为平淡。没有消息或许对风险资产来说是件好事。我 们仍在原地踏步……尚未出现波动。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The unemployment claims data, despite its noise during the holiday season, remains the best indicator of labor market health, suggesting potential improvements in December and implications for the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy [1] Group 1 - Brian Jacobsen, Chief Economist at Annex Wealth Management, emphasizes the significance of unemployment claims data in assessing labor market conditions [1] - The labor market showed signs of improvement in December, which may lead the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates longer than previously expected [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that there is a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, estimated at 89.2% [1] - The probability of maintaining the current interest rate is significantly lower, at 10.8% [1]

Group 1 - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 87.4% [1] - The probability of maintaining the current interest rate is 12.6% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Barclays Research indicates uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision next month, but Chairman Powell is likely to advocate for a rate cut [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Positions - Barclays believes that Governors Milan, Bowman, and Waller may support a rate cut, while regional Fed Presidents Musalem and Schmidt prefer to keep rates unchanged [1] - Governors Barr and Jefferson, along with Goolsbee and Collins, have shown unclear stances but lean towards maintaining the current rates [1] - Governors Cook and Williams are data-dependent but appear to favor a rate cut [1] Group 2: Voting Dynamics - Barclays notes that before considering Powell's position, there may be six voters inclined to keep rates unchanged and five leaning towards a rate cut [1] - The report emphasizes that Powell will ultimately dominate the decision-making process, as the threshold for publicly opposing his stance is quite high among the governors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar experienced its best single-day performance since the end of September, driven by traders increasing their bets on the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged [1] Group 1 - The dollar's strong performance reflects market sentiment regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy [1] - Increased bets on the Fed's decision to keep rates steady indicate a shift in trader expectations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index (DXY) has slightly declined, and upcoming employment data releases may increase short-term forex volatility, particularly before the December Federal Reserve meeting [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Analysts from Danske Bank, specifically Jesper Fjarstedt, indicate that multiple employment reports prior to the December Federal Reserve meeting could lead to significant market fluctuations [1] - If the Federal Reserve decides to maintain interest rates in December, the US dollar is expected to strengthen by the end of the year [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nomura Securities expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates in December, despite the impact of the U.S. government shutdown on the release of official data, recent indicators still show resilience in the labor market [1] Group 1 - Nomura Securities predicts no change in interest rates by the Federal Reserve in December [1] - The U.S. government shutdown has affected the publication of official economic data [1] - Recent economic indicators suggest that the labor market remains strong and resilient [1]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between former President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has intensified following the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates, which Trump had hoped would be lowered to stimulate the economy [3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve announced on July 30 that it would keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting where rates were held steady [3]. - The decision was made despite Trump's repeated calls for significant rate cuts to counteract inflation caused by his own tariff policies [3][4]. Group 2: Trump's Criticism - Trump publicly criticized Powell, labeling him as "too angry, too stupid, and too politicized," and suggested that he is unfit for the role of Fed Chairman [3]. - He referred to Powell as "Mr. Too Late," accusing him of being slow to act and causing the U.S. to lose trillions of dollars [3]. - Trump also condemned the renovation project of the Fed's headquarters, calling it the "most incompetent and corrupt" renovation in history [3]. Group 3: Implications for Economic Policy - The clash between Trump and Powell highlights the power struggle between the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve, raising concerns among global investors regarding the direction of U.S. economic policy [4]. - Powell has maintained the Fed's independence, emphasizing that monetary policy adjustments should be based on comprehensive economic and inflation data [4].