新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-08 下游畏高拒采 铅价出现回落 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2026-01-07，LME铅现货升水为-38.60美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化125元/吨至17475 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 25元/吨至0.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化125元/ 吨至17500元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化100元/吨至17475元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易 日变化125元/吨至17525元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-125元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化 25元/吨至10050元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10150元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10400元/ 吨。 期货方面：2026-01-07，沪铅主力合约开于17530元/吨，收于17830元/吨，较前一交易日变化310元/吨，全天交易 日成交83341手，较前一交易日变化26456手，全天交易日持仓52009手，手较前一交易日变化1009手，日内价格震 荡，最高点达到17860元/吨，最低点达到17530 ...

2025 年 12 月 30 日 铅：LME 库存减少，限制价格回落 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 17490 | -0.37% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 1999.5 | 0.83% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 84769 | 26000 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 3806 | -1794 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 54475 | -1083 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 177974 | -181 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | -25 | -25 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -37.81 | 4.49 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | PB00-PB01（元/吨） | -50 | -3 ...

Report Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [3] Core View - The non - ferrous sector is strong, driving up the lead price. The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to fluctuate between 16,950 yuan/ton and 17,600 yuan/ton [1][3] Market News and Key Data Spot - On December 4, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 43.64 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by 25 yuan/ton to 17,100 yuan/ton. Different regional spot prices and premiums also had corresponding changes [1] Futures - On December 4, 2025, the main contract of SHFE lead opened at 17,240 yuan/ton, closed at 17,245 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 37,288 lots, up 10,271 lots, and the position was 46,582 lots, down 45 lots. The night - session closed at 17,305 yuan/ton, up 0.70% from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price rose 25 yuan/ton. The price difference between futures and spot narrowed slightly, and the market trading was okay [2] Inventory - On December 4, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 24,000 tons, down 7,100 tons from last week. The LME lead inventory was 248,050 tons, down 5,100 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - Absolute price: Maintain a neutral view. In the fourth quarter, the resumption of recycled lead production was less than expected, primary lead producers were reluctant to sell due to maintenance, and the industry chain maintained low inventory. The negative lead concentrate processing fee provided effective cost support. The battery production increased month - on - month but the terminal demand was average, and the closure of the import window weakened the overseas impact. The price is expected to fluctuate between 16,950 yuan/ton and 17,600 yuan/ton [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [3]

Report Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [3] Core View - In the fourth quarter, the resumption of secondary lead production fell short of expectations, and primary lead producers carried out maintenance and were reluctant to sell, resulting in low inventories in the industry chain. The negative processing fees for lead concentrates provided effective cost support. The operating rate of lead-acid batteries rebounded month-on-month, but the terminal demand was average. The closure of the import window reduced the impact from overseas. Overall, the lead market showed a pattern of weak supply and demand. Price fluctuations were expected to range between 16,950 yuan/ton and 17,600 yuan/ton [3] Market News and Key Data Spot Market - On December 2, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$41.63/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 25 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,150 yuan/ton, and the SMM Henan lead spot price also increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 9,875 yuan/ton, 10,050 yuan/ton, and 10,225 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On December 2, 2025, the main Shanghai lead futures contract opened at 17,145 yuan/ton and closed at 17,210 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 52,077 lots, an increase of 13,295 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest was 47,601 lots, an increase of 414 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,230 yuan/ton and a low of 17,110 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main Shanghai lead futures contract opened at 17,170 yuan/ton and closed at 17,165 yuan/ton, down 0.09% from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On December 2, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 31,000 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 256,950 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy Absolute Price Strategy - Neutral, with price fluctuations expected to range between 16,950 yuan/ton and 17,600 yuan/ton [3] Option Strategy - Sell wide straddle [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The strategy for the lead market is cautiously bearish [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The supply of lead ore is continuously tight, and the processing fee remains low. The operating rates of primary and secondary lead are both at low levels, resulting in limited supply pressure. The consumption side remains stable, with no strong recovery signals. Due to the impact of large orders in the market, the lead price once dropped significantly. In this situation, it is recommended to mainly short on rallies [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On November 27, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$40.08/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day to 16,900 yuan/ton. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 20.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,900 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 16,850 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate-scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The price of scrap electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 9,925 yuan/ton, the price of scrap white shells decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,050 yuan/ton, and the price of scrap black shells decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 10,250 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On November 27, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,060 yuan/ton and closed at 16,955 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 57,305 lots, an increase of 17,118 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 48,129 lots, a decrease of 904 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a maximum of 17,075 yuan/ton and a minimum of 15,885 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,990 yuan/ton and closed at 16,980 yuan/ton, a 0.47% increase from the afternoon closing price of the previous day [2] Inventory - On November 27, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 35,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 264,175 tons, a decrease of 800 tons from the previous trading day [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the lead industry is neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market is characterized by tight supply at the mine end and differentiated consumption, with continuous inventory accumulation before delivery. The lead price is constrained by weak demand and high inventory on the upside and supported by cost on the downside. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate, with the price range roughly between 17,000 yuan/ton and 17,850 yuan/ton. For options, selling a wide straddle is recommended [3] 3. Summary by Section Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On November 17, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$23.09/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 17,275 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 15.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 17,325 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 175 yuan/ton to 17,275 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 175 yuan/ton to 17,325 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate-scrap spread remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,000 yuan/ton, while the prices of waste white shells and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton and 10,400 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On November 17, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,520 yuan/ton and closed at 17,355 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 74,591 lots, an increase of 37,245 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest was 74,585 lots, an increase of 36,168 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,520 yuan/ton and a low of 17,310 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,345 yuan/ton and closed at 17,250 yuan/ton, a 0.83% decrease from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On November 17, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 39,000 tons, an increase of 3,700 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 17, the LME lead inventory was 266,125 tons, an increase of 43,650 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Given the tight supply at the mine end, differentiated consumption, and continuous inventory accumulation before delivery, the lead price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to the inventory depletion rhythm, with the price range roughly between 17,000 yuan/ton and 17,850 yuan/ton. For options, selling a wide straddle is recommended [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core View of the Report - The lead market currently shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The TC price on the supply side is continuously declining, and there are more maintenance activities in smelters. On the consumption side, the inventory clearance of dealers is slow, the purchasing willingness is low, and the finished - product inventory of some enterprises has accumulated. With the upcoming implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles and the Middle East tariff policy in September, the impact on consumption is uncertain. Therefore, the lead price is expected to remain in a volatile range of 16,300 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On September 1, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$41.07/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,725 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -20.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead price remained unchanged at 16,750 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price remained unchanged at 16,725 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium remained unchanged at 16,725 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,100 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,125 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,425 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On September 1, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,875 yuan/ton and closed at 16,855 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 39,854 lots, a decrease of 3,999 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 51,017 lots, an increase of 1,835 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest reaching 16,880 yuan/ton and the lowest reaching 16,780 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,875 yuan/ton and closed at 16,930 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton from the afternoon close. According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price remained flat compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, holders quoted prices at par with the SMM1 lead average price or at a discount of 110 - 100 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2510 contract; in Hunan, branded lead smelters quoted prices at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price, and some holders quoted prices at a discount of 160 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2510 contract; in Anhui and Jiangxi, holders quoted prices at a premium of 30 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price. The lead price was consolidating, and downstream buyers made purchases on dips, resulting in relatively better spot transactions in some regions [2] Inventory - On September 1, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 67,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. As of September 1, the LME lead inventory was 259,550 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - Given the current situation of weak supply and demand in the lead market and the uncertainty of consumption impact, the lead price is expected to remain volatile in the range of 16,300 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [3]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core View The overseas inventory of lead has increased significantly, putting pressure on the price. The lead trend strength is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [1]. Summary by Relevant Items 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,825 yuan/ton, up 0.30%, and the closing price of the LME lead 3M electronic disk was 1,980.5 dollars/ton, down 0.03% [1]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract was 27,255 lots, a decrease of 3,340 lots, and the open interest was 48,112 lots, a decrease of 1,384 lots. The trading volume of LME lead was 6,041 lots, an increase of 2,208 lots, and the open interest was 159,411 lots, an increase of 297 lots [1]. - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was -25 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -44 dollars/ton, a decrease of 5.5 dollars/ton. The import premium was 105 dollars/ton, unchanged [1]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai lead futures inventory was 61,353 tons, a decrease of 872 tons, and the LME lead inventory was 282,950 tons, an increase of 22,475 tons. The LME lead cancelled warrants were 54,250 tons, a decrease of 6,725 tons [1]. - **Profit and Loss**: The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was -485.82 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.25 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss of the Shanghai lead continuous third contract was -548.94 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18.57 yuan/ton. The comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was -487 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. 2. News - The US Department of Commerce officially announced that 407 types of steel and aluminum derivative products such as wind turbines would be included in the tariff list, suddenly expanding the scope of Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs, catching US importers off - guard [1]. - The meeting place for the US - Russia - Ukraine tri - party talks is considering Budapest, Geneva, or even Russia. US media reported that Trump said Ukraine might need to make territorial concessions to reach a potential agreement [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [4] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [4] Core View - The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, failing to reflect the characteristics of the traditional peak demand season. Lead prices are expected to remain in a volatile range of 16,300 - 17,150 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market - On August 13, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$38.73/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -35.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton, and the SMM Henan lead price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,200 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,175 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells increased by 50 yuan/ton to 10,525 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On August 13, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,940 yuan/ton, closed at 16,930 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 28,937 lots, down 1,049 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 49,424 lots, down 1,799 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point at 16,975 yuan/ton and the lowest at 16,865 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,880 yuan/ton and closed at 16,775 yuan/ton, down 0.89% from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In the Henan region, holders offered at a premium of 0 - 20 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price or at a discount of 170 - 110 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509 contract, with limited supply of low - priced goods. In the Hunan region, smelters offered at a discount of 20 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price, and traders offered at a discount of 170 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509 contract, but the trading was relatively light. In the Jiangxi region, holders offered at a premium of 50 - 70 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price or at a discount of 120 - 100 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509 contract. The lead futures weakened during the day, and some holders near the delivery date stopped offering and preferred to deliver to the warehouse. Downstream buyers made rigid purchases at low prices, and the overall market trading improved limitedly [2] Inventory - On August 13, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 70,000 tons, a decrease of 110 tons from the previous week. As of August 13, the LME lead inventory was 262,225 tons, a decrease of 25 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2) Core View The continuous decrease in LME lead inventory supports the lead price [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Price**: The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 16,915 yuan/ton, up 0.18%; the closing price of the LME 3M electronic lead contract was 1,997.5 dollars/ton, down 0.30% [1]. - **Volume**: The trading volume of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 29,986 lots, a decrease of 5,637 lots; the trading volume of LME lead was 4,046 lots, a decrease of 1,309 lots [1]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 51,223 lots, a decrease of 3,172 lots; the open interest of LME lead was 151,920 lots, an increase of 369 lots [1]. - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was -35 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -35.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.21 dollars/ton [1]. - **Import and Export Profit and Loss**: The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was -641.32 yuan/ton, an increase of 86.7 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous - three contract was -631.96 yuan/ton, an increase of 56.84 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai lead futures was 59,791 tons, an increase of 1,108 tons; the LME lead inventory was 262,250 tons, a decrease of 3,550 tons; the LME lead cancelled warrants were 66,025 tons, a decrease of 3,550 tons [1]. - **Recycled Lead**: The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton; the price of recycled refined lead was 16,775 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was -404 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan/ton [1]. [News] - The China - US Stockholm economic and trade talks joint statement announced that starting from August 12, 2025, the implementation of the 24% tariff will be suspended again for 90 days [1]. - The US CPI in July increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected, while the core CPI growth rate reached the highest level since February [1]. [Lead Trend Intensity] The lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [1].