新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-26 市场观望情绪仍相对较重 铅价或维持震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2026-02-25，LME铅现货升水为-49.85美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化0元/吨至16525元/ 吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 100元/吨至-50.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化0元/吨 至16600元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化0元/吨至16550元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变 化0元/吨至16600元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至0元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化100元/吨 至9925元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化100元/吨至10075元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化75元/吨至10275元/吨。 期货方面：2026-02-25，沪铅主力合约开于16655元/吨，收于16735元/吨，较前一交易日变化65元/吨，全天交易日 成交67705手，较前一交易日变化12420手，全天交易日持仓71996手，手较前一交易日变化2284手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到16840元/吨，最低点达到1665 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is cautiously bearish [3] Core View of the Report - Before the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of the lead market both decline. Logistics stops operating and enterprises go on holiday, resulting in light trading. Inventory is transferred to social warehouses, and it is expected that inventory will accumulate significantly after the festival, leading to a weak and volatile lead price. Selling hedging operations can be carried out when the price returns above 16,900 yuan/ton, but positions should not be too heavy approaching the Spring Festival [3] Summary of Relevant Catalog Market News and Important Data Spot - On February 9, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$50.67/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,425 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong lead spot remained unchanged at 16,475 yuan/ton. SMM Henan lead spot increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,400 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,475 yuan/ton. The lead refined-scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 9,900 yuan/ton. The price of waste white shells decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 9,975 yuan/ton. The price of waste black shells decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,200 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On February 9, 2026, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,525 yuan/ton and closed at 16,585 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 49,645 lots, a decrease of 775 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest for the whole trading day was 50,305 lots, a decrease of 1,722 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, reaching a high of 16,665 yuan/ton and a low of 16,485 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,610 yuan/ton and closed at 16,690 yuan/ton, up 0.51% from the afternoon close of the previous day [2] Inventory - On February 9, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 50,000 tons, a change of 9,500 tons from the previous week. As of February 9, the LME lead inventory was 232,750 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The strategy is to be cautiously bearish. Before the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of the lead market both decline, with light trading due to logistics suspension and enterprise holidays. Inventory is transferred to social warehouses, and it is expected that inventory will accumulate significantly after the festival, leading to a weak and volatile lead price. Selling hedging operations can be carried out when the price returns above 16,900 yuan/ton, but positions should not be too heavy approaching the Spring Festival [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The downstream market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment, and the lead price maintains a volatile pattern. Although supply in some areas has decreased due to extreme weather, the demand for electric vehicle batteries has dropped significantly as the Spring Festival approaches, while the demand for automotive batteries is still acceptable. Some enterprises may start pre - festival inventory replenishment. The lead price is expected to rise slightly this week, with an overall operating range of 16,900 - 17,700 yuan/ton [1][4] Summary by Relevant Content Spot Market - On January 27, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was - 48.53 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,850 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 25.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,875 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,825 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,875 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 100 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,025 yuan/ton, 10,125 yuan/ton, and 10,300 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On January 27, 2026, the Shanghai lead futures main contract opened at 17,115 yuan/ton and closed at 17,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 62,123 lots, an increase of 13,107 lots from the previous trading day. The持仓 volume was 60,800 lots, a decrease of 2,985 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,165 yuan/ton and a low of 16,945 yuan/ton. In the night session, the contract opened at 17,375 yuan/ton and closed at 17,365 yuan/ton, a rise of 65 yuan/ton from the afternoon close. After the lead price weakened, the downstream's attitude towards purchasing was divided, some continued to wait and see due to fear of price drops, the smelter's inventory increased slightly, and the market trading was rather light [2] Inventory - On January 27, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 35,000 tons, an increase of 700 tons from the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 211,175 tons, a decrease of 1,575 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The overall investment strategy for lead is neutral, and the option strategy is to sell a wide - straddle [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Option: Sell wide straddle [4] 2. Core View of the Report - At the end of the year, the supply - demand weakness pattern of lead is more obvious. Driven by the overall rise of the non - ferrous sector, the demand in the off - season becomes weaker. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate between 16,900 and 17,850 yuan in January 2026 [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Key Data 3.1.1 Spot - On January 7, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$38.60/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by 125 yuan/ton to 17,475 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot changed by 125 yuan/ton to 17,500 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot changed by 100 yuan/ton to 17,475 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 125 yuan/ton to 17,525 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 125 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries changed by 25 yuan/ton to 10,050 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,400 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.2 Futures - On January 7, 2026, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 17,530 yuan/ton and closed at 17,830 yuan/ton, a change of 310 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 83,341 lots, a change of 26,456 lots from the previous trading day. The position was 52,009 lots, a change of 1,009 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,860 yuan/ton and a low of 17,530 yuan/ton. In the night session, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 17,725 yuan/ton and closed at 17,650 yuan/ton, a 0.23% decline from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price rose 125 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In Henan, smelters' quotes were at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead ex - factory, and traders' quotes were at a discount of 200 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2602 contract ex - factory. In Hunan, smelters' quotes were at a discount of 25 - 0 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead for rigid demand transactions, and traders' quotes were at a discount of 200 - 180 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2602 contract. In Guangdong, smelters' quotes were at a premium of 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price ex - factory. In Yunnan, holders' quotes' discount narrowed to a discount of 300 - 280 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead ex - factory. Due to the continuous rise of lead prices, downstream enterprises were cautious in purchasing due to high prices, and the overall market trading was light [2] 3.1.3 Inventory - On January 7, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 19,000 tons, a change of 600 tons from the same period last week. As of January 7, the LME lead inventory was 230,425 tons, a change of - 2,925 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View - LME lead inventory decreased, which limited the price decline [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE lead main contract was 17,490 yuan/ton, down 0.37%; the closing price of LME lead 3M electronic disk was $1,999.5/ton, up 0.83% [1] - **Volume**: The trading volume of SHFE lead main contract was 84,769 lots, an increase of 26,000; the trading volume of LME lead was 3,806 lots, a decrease of 1,794 [1] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of SHFE lead main contract was 54,475 lots, a decrease of 1,083; the open interest of LME lead was 177,974 lots, a decrease of 181 [1] - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was -25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -$37.81/ton, an increase of $4.49 [1] - **Import Profit and Loss**: The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was 288.1 yuan/ton, an increase of 50.11; the import profit and loss of SHFE lead continuous third contract was 213.18 yuan/ton, an increase of 75.78 [1] - **Inventory**: The SHFE lead futures inventory was 11,583 tons, an increase of 25; the LME lead inventory was 244,275 tons, a decrease of 4,625 [1] - **Recycled Lead**: The price of recycled electric vehicle batteries was 9,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 25; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was 413 yuan/ton, an increase of 126 [1] 3.2 News - From January to November, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 6.62686 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1% (previous value 1.9%); the operating income was 125.34 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6% (previous value 1.8%). In November, the profit decreased by 13.1% year - on - year (previous value - 5.5%) [2] - Ukrainian President Zelensky planned to meet with US President Trump in Florida on the 28th to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine and some "sensitive" issues [2] - The lead trend strength was 0, indicating a neutral view [2]

Report Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [3] Core View - The non - ferrous sector is strong, driving up the lead price. The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to fluctuate between 16,950 yuan/ton and 17,600 yuan/ton [1][3] Market News and Key Data Spot - On December 4, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 43.64 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by 25 yuan/ton to 17,100 yuan/ton. Different regional spot prices and premiums also had corresponding changes [1] Futures - On December 4, 2025, the main contract of SHFE lead opened at 17,240 yuan/ton, closed at 17,245 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 37,288 lots, up 10,271 lots, and the position was 46,582 lots, down 45 lots. The night - session closed at 17,305 yuan/ton, up 0.70% from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price rose 25 yuan/ton. The price difference between futures and spot narrowed slightly, and the market trading was okay [2] Inventory - On December 4, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 24,000 tons, down 7,100 tons from last week. The LME lead inventory was 248,050 tons, down 5,100 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - Absolute price: Maintain a neutral view. In the fourth quarter, the resumption of recycled lead production was less than expected, primary lead producers were reluctant to sell due to maintenance, and the industry chain maintained low inventory. The negative lead concentrate processing fee provided effective cost support. The battery production increased month - on - month but the terminal demand was average, and the closure of the import window weakened the overseas impact. The price is expected to fluctuate between 16,950 yuan/ton and 17,600 yuan/ton [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [3]

Report Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [3] Core View - In the fourth quarter, the resumption of secondary lead production fell short of expectations, and primary lead producers carried out maintenance and were reluctant to sell, resulting in low inventories in the industry chain. The negative processing fees for lead concentrates provided effective cost support. The operating rate of lead-acid batteries rebounded month-on-month, but the terminal demand was average. The closure of the import window reduced the impact from overseas. Overall, the lead market showed a pattern of weak supply and demand. Price fluctuations were expected to range between 16,950 yuan/ton and 17,600 yuan/ton [3] Market News and Key Data Spot Market - On December 2, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$41.63/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 25 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,150 yuan/ton, and the SMM Henan lead spot price also increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 9,875 yuan/ton, 10,050 yuan/ton, and 10,225 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On December 2, 2025, the main Shanghai lead futures contract opened at 17,145 yuan/ton and closed at 17,210 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 52,077 lots, an increase of 13,295 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest was 47,601 lots, an increase of 414 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,230 yuan/ton and a low of 17,110 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main Shanghai lead futures contract opened at 17,170 yuan/ton and closed at 17,165 yuan/ton, down 0.09% from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On December 2, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 31,000 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 256,950 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy Absolute Price Strategy - Neutral, with price fluctuations expected to range between 16,950 yuan/ton and 17,600 yuan/ton [3] Option Strategy - Sell wide straddle [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The strategy for the lead market is cautiously bearish [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The supply of lead ore is continuously tight, and the processing fee remains low. The operating rates of primary and secondary lead are both at low levels, resulting in limited supply pressure. The consumption side remains stable, with no strong recovery signals. Due to the impact of large orders in the market, the lead price once dropped significantly. In this situation, it is recommended to mainly short on rallies [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On November 27, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$40.08/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day to 16,900 yuan/ton. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 20.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,900 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 16,850 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate-scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The price of scrap electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 9,925 yuan/ton, the price of scrap white shells decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,050 yuan/ton, and the price of scrap black shells decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 10,250 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On November 27, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,060 yuan/ton and closed at 16,955 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 57,305 lots, an increase of 17,118 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 48,129 lots, a decrease of 904 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a maximum of 17,075 yuan/ton and a minimum of 15,885 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,990 yuan/ton and closed at 16,980 yuan/ton, a 0.47% increase from the afternoon closing price of the previous day [2] Inventory - On November 27, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 35,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 264,175 tons, a decrease of 800 tons from the previous trading day [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the lead industry is neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market is characterized by tight supply at the mine end and differentiated consumption, with continuous inventory accumulation before delivery. The lead price is constrained by weak demand and high inventory on the upside and supported by cost on the downside. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate, with the price range roughly between 17,000 yuan/ton and 17,850 yuan/ton. For options, selling a wide straddle is recommended [3] 3. Summary by Section Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On November 17, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$23.09/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 17,275 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 15.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 17,325 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 175 yuan/ton to 17,275 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 175 yuan/ton to 17,325 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate-scrap spread remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,000 yuan/ton, while the prices of waste white shells and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton and 10,400 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On November 17, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,520 yuan/ton and closed at 17,355 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 74,591 lots, an increase of 37,245 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest was 74,585 lots, an increase of 36,168 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,520 yuan/ton and a low of 17,310 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,345 yuan/ton and closed at 17,250 yuan/ton, a 0.83% decrease from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On November 17, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 39,000 tons, an increase of 3,700 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 17, the LME lead inventory was 266,125 tons, an increase of 43,650 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Given the tight supply at the mine end, differentiated consumption, and continuous inventory accumulation before delivery, the lead price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to the inventory depletion rhythm, with the price range roughly between 17,000 yuan/ton and 17,850 yuan/ton. For options, selling a wide straddle is recommended [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core View of the Report - The lead market currently shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The TC price on the supply side is continuously declining, and there are more maintenance activities in smelters. On the consumption side, the inventory clearance of dealers is slow, the purchasing willingness is low, and the finished - product inventory of some enterprises has accumulated. With the upcoming implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles and the Middle East tariff policy in September, the impact on consumption is uncertain. Therefore, the lead price is expected to remain in a volatile range of 16,300 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On September 1, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$41.07/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,725 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -20.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead price remained unchanged at 16,750 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price remained unchanged at 16,725 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium remained unchanged at 16,725 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,100 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,125 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,425 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On September 1, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,875 yuan/ton and closed at 16,855 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 39,854 lots, a decrease of 3,999 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 51,017 lots, an increase of 1,835 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest reaching 16,880 yuan/ton and the lowest reaching 16,780 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,875 yuan/ton and closed at 16,930 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton from the afternoon close. According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price remained flat compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, holders quoted prices at par with the SMM1 lead average price or at a discount of 110 - 100 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2510 contract; in Hunan, branded lead smelters quoted prices at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price, and some holders quoted prices at a discount of 160 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2510 contract; in Anhui and Jiangxi, holders quoted prices at a premium of 30 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price. The lead price was consolidating, and downstream buyers made purchases on dips, resulting in relatively better spot transactions in some regions [2] Inventory - On September 1, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 67,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. As of September 1, the LME lead inventory was 259,550 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - Given the current situation of weak supply and demand in the lead market and the uncertainty of consumption impact, the lead price is expected to remain volatile in the range of 16,300 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [3]