登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 中信建投证券研究 文|周君芝 陈怡 2025年是黄金历史上无法绕开的一个年份，不仅因为单年黄金价格大幅上涨，贵金属可以说众多资产中 表现最为优异，更重要的是当前央行黄金储备3.6万吨，接近布雷顿森林体系时代，且当前央行持有黄 金的市值超过4万亿美元，超过欧元储备，直逼美元。 黄金暴涨之后，市场关注未来走势，尤其关注近年不可忽视的购买力量——央行。近年央行购金不仅规 模大、速度快，还展现出 "黄金回家"等非常规操作。 拆解央行购金、持金的微观逻辑之后，我们获知两点： ①当前共知的世界黄金协会给定数据，并非央行购金全貌。 ②近年国际政局动荡，央行基于战略需求增持黄金，在购金渠道以及窖藏方式上更为多样，也导致了传 统渠道追踪央行购金难度加大。 按市场价格计算，黄金价值已经突破4万亿美元，去年黄金占全球外汇储备的比例已经升至20%，超越 16%的欧元，仅次于46%的美元，一举成为全球第二储备资产。 央行购金是近年黄金分析一股不可忽视的力量。但是关于央行购金的细节，不论是微观操作——央行如 何买金 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 欧洲央行再次要求意大利重新考虑将其黄金储备宣布为人民财产的举动，批评人士称这可能为政府抛售 黄金打开大门，并危及央行的独立性。 在周一的一份法律意见书中，管委会敦促梅洛尼政府审查该提案，此前意大利财政部请求欧洲央行研究 该计划的更新版本。 欧洲央行重申了上周在一份意见中提出的反对观点，强调"尽管修订后的草案条款引入了变更，但欧洲 央行仍不清楚修订后草案条款的具体目的究竟是什么。"该机构表示： "鉴于此，且在缺乏对修订草案条款目的任何解释的情况下，我们请意大利当局重新考虑修 订后的草案条款，这也是为了维护意大利央行根据条约履行与欧洲中央银行体系（ESCB） 相关的基本任务时的独立性。" 意大利央行持有约2452吨黄金，是仅次于美国和德国的第三大黄金储备国。随着近期金价上涨，梅洛尼 所在的中右翼政党的一些立法者提议对国家即将出台的预算进行修正，确认储备由央行管理和持有， 但"属于意大利人民"。 法律规定，意大利央行按照欧盟规则管理这些黄金储备，而欧盟规则禁止使用黄金为政府支出提供资 金。 梅洛尼所在的意大利兄弟党曾多次提出对该国储备进行政治控制的问题，极右 ...

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) urged Italy to reconsider a proposed amendment that claims the Italian central bank's gold reserves belong to the Italian people, warning that this could jeopardize the independence of the central bank [2] - Italy has the third-largest gold reserves globally, which are recorded on the central bank's balance sheet, and must be managed according to EU rules that prohibit using gold for government spending [2] - The latest draft of the amendment clarifies that it will not override EU rules protecting central bank independence, following two revisions of the proposal [2] Group 2 - London gold is currently trading around $4,190, with a slight increase of 0.14%, and has shown a range between $4,187.50 and $4,197.09 during the session [1] - The short-term outlook for London gold indicates a sideways movement, with support levels around $4,120 and resistance near $4,200 [3] - Technical indicators such as MACD are currently in a neutral state, and Bollinger Bands are indicating a sideways trend within the range of $4,180 to $4,230 [3]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) has urged Italy to reconsider a budget amendment that would declare its gold reserves as "people's property," fearing it may facilitate government gold sales [2][3] - Italy's central bank holds approximately 2,452 tons of gold, ranking third globally, with a current value exceeding €280 billion (approximately $327 billion) [2] - The ECB's concerns include potential legal implications that could undermine the independence of the central bank and create risks for future gold management [3] Group 2 - Recent fluctuations in gold prices have led to increased volatility, with current trading around $4,215 per ounce, indicating a short-term sideways trend [1] - The market sentiment is uncertain, with resistance levels identified at $4,213, and potential price movements could see gold retreat to the $4,202-$4,195 range if resistance is not broken [4] - Analysts suggest a strategy of shorting on rebounds, with key resistance and support levels closely monitored for trading decisions [4]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has urged Italy to reconsider a proposal that declares its gold reserves as property of the people, which critics argue could pave the way for the government to sell gold [1][2] Group 1: ECB's Position - The ECB's governing council requested the Italian government to reassess the proposal to maintain the independence of the Italian central bank under the European System of Central Banks (ESCB) [1] - The ECB expressed uncertainty regarding the specific purpose of the proposed clause, highlighting that gold is already considered national property [1][2] Group 2: Economic Context - Italy's economy is projected to grow only 0.5% this year, with debt significantly exceeding 130% of economic output, complicating fiscal support for citizens and growth initiatives [3] - The Italian government has included tax cuts for the middle class in its latest budget proposal, which is expected to be approved by year-end, and has successfully reduced the deficit to within the EU's 3% limit [3] Group 3: Gold Reserves and Political Implications - Approximately half of Italy's gold reserves are stored in the central bank's vaults in Rome, with the remainder located in the US, UK, and Switzerland [4] - Former Italian central bank governor Salvatore Rossi warned that approving the amendment could lead to significant conflict with European institutions, questioning the political wisdom of such a move [2]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank has requested Italy to reconsider its proposal to declare national gold reserves as property of the Italian people, which may lead to the government selling part of its gold reserves [1] Group 1: ECB's Position - The ECB suggests that Italian authorities should reassess the draft provisions while maintaining the independence of Italian banks in fulfilling their responsibilities within the ECB framework [1] - The specific purpose of the draft provisions remains unclear according to the ECB [1] Group 2: Italy's Gold Reserves - Italy holds approximately 2,452 tons of gold, ranking third globally after the United States and Germany [1] - Members of the right-wing party led by Prime Minister Meloni proposed an amendment in the upcoming budget to confirm that gold reserves are managed and held by the Bank of Italy, while also stating that they "belong to the Italian people" [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has requested the Italian government to reconsider its proposal to declare the country's gold reserves as property of the Italian people, which may lead to the potential sale of part of Italy's gold reserves [1][2] Group 1: ECB's Position - The ECB suggested that Italian authorities reassess the draft proposal while considering the independence of the Italian central bank in fulfilling its responsibilities within the ECB system [1] - The ECB expressed concerns that the specific purpose of the draft proposal remains unclear [1] Group 2: Italian Government's Actions - Senator Lucio Malan from the ruling Brothers of Italy party submitted an amendment to the 2026 budget, stating that gold reserves managed by the Italian central bank belong to the state and are held in trust for the Italian people [1] - The Italian government has faced ongoing calls from various political factions over the past 20 years to clarify gold ownership, with discussions about potentially selling gold to reduce public debt or fund tax cuts and increased spending [1] Group 3: Historical Context and Current Situation - Italy holds the third-largest national gold reserves globally, with 2,452 tons valued at approximately $300 billion, representing about 13% of the country's GDP [1] - Italy's national debt has exceeded €3 trillion (approximately $3.49 trillion), with projections indicating that the debt-to-GDP ratio will reach 137.4% next year [2] - Despite ongoing discussions about selling gold to alleviate debt, such proposals have not been approved to date [2] Group 4: Perspectives on Gold Reserves - Some analysts argue that selling gold could free up funds for public services, while others emphasize that the Italian central bank has no intention of selling gold reserves [2] - Historical experiences, such as the looting of 120 tons of gold by Nazi forces during World War II, have shaped Italy's modern gold policy [2] - Experts suggest that retaining gold reserves is a prudent decision, especially in the context of global market fluctuations and the rise of digital assets [2]

Core Viewpoint - Cambodia faces significant challenges in managing its foreign exchange reserves due to external pressures, particularly from the United States, which has led to a reevaluation of its asset management strategies, including a shift towards gold reserves and alternative storage solutions [2][20]. Group 1: Economic Context - Cambodia's economy has transitioned from post-war recovery to an investment-driven model, focusing on infrastructure development with foreign capital [2]. - The total foreign exchange reserves of Cambodia are approximately $26 billion, with gold holdings amounting to 54 tons, indicating a reliance on traditional Western storage systems that are now being reconsidered [2]. Group 2: U.S. Influence and Sanctions - The U.S. has imposed sanctions on three state-owned banks in Cambodia, freezing their assets in the U.S. due to alleged corruption, which resulted in a sharp decline in Cambodia's foreign exchange reserves and significant currency fluctuations [4]. - The U.S. also temporarily suspended SWIFT services for certain Cambodian financial institutions, forcing the country to utilize its gold reserves for import payments, thereby impacting its international trade credibility [4]. Group 3: Leadership Changes and Policy Shifts - Hun Manet, the son of former Prime Minister Hun Sen, took office in 2023 and has sought to balance U.S. and Chinese influences, aiming to attract more Western investment for digital economy and education reforms [6]. - Despite these efforts, high tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Cambodian exports, particularly a 36% tariff on textiles and agriculture, have adversely affected key industries [6]. Group 4: Case Study of Chen Zhi - The case of Chen Zhi, founder of Prince Group, exemplifies the challenges faced by the Hun family under U.S. policies, as his group was implicated in forced labor and cryptocurrency fraud, leading to significant legal repercussions [8][15]. - The U.S. seized 127,000 bitcoins from Chen Zhi, valued at approximately $15 billion, marking the largest confiscation of cryptocurrency assets in history and indirectly impacting the Hun family's financial network [13][15]. Group 5: Strategic Reassessment - In light of the sanctions and the Chen Zhi case, Cambodia is reassessing its reserve strategies, with plans to store part of its gold reserves in Shenzhen, China, to enhance security and avoid the risks associated with Western financial systems [20][22]. - The shift towards storing gold in China reflects a broader trend among small nations to seek more stable partnerships and reduce reliance on Western financial institutions, which have proven to be vulnerable to external interventions [20][22].

Core Viewpoint - Central banks around the world are significantly increasing their gold purchases, driving international gold prices to new highs this year. However, after surpassing the $4000 mark, prices have experienced a rapid pullback, prompting discussions among some central bank officials about the potential need to sell gold [1][2]. Group 1: Central Bank Actions - Benjamin Diokno, a member of the Philippine central bank's monetary board, stated that the current gold holdings are excessively high, with gold accounting for approximately 13% of the Philippines' $109 billion international reserves, exceeding the ideal range of 8%-12% [2][3]. - The Philippine central bank began accumulating gold reserves when prices were around $2000 per ounce, and prices have since doubled, briefly exceeding $4380 before retreating below $4000 due to easing geopolitical tensions and profit-taking by investors [2][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have risen approximately 52% this year, with a 30% increase over the past two months, largely driven by central banks' large-scale purchases, especially from emerging markets seeking to reduce reliance on the dollar [4][5]. - Following a record high, gold prices have sharply declined, attributed to profit-taking and volatility in the silver market, although Goldman Sachs expects continued increases in gold allocations by central banks and institutional investors amid global uncertainties, predicting prices could reach $4900 per ounce by the end of 2026 [5][6]. Group 3: Diverging Opinions - Not all analysts share bullish views; Capital Economics predicts a slight collapse in gold prices, forecasting a drop to $3500 per ounce by the end of 2026, citing that gold's share in reserves has exceeded 20%, which may deter further accumulation by central banks [7]. - Despite the mixed sentiments, at least 23 countries and regions increased their gold reserves in the first half of 2025, marking the 16th consecutive year of net purchases by central banks, with significant net buys recorded in 2022, 2023, and 2024 [7].

Group 1 - The central bank of the Philippines is considering selling part of its excessive gold reserves due to a decrease in safe-haven demand, with gold currently accounting for 13% of its international reserves, which is higher than other central banks in the region [1] - The ideal gold reserve ratio for the central bank should be between 8% and 12%, and as of September 2025, the total reserves are approximately $109 billion, the highest in nearly a year [1] - The central bank initially purchased gold at around $2,000 per ounce, while gold prices reached a record high of nearly $4,400 per ounce, prompting discussions on whether to sell [1] Group 2 - Earlier this year, the central bank's governor stated that gold is a poor investment with high risks and negative average returns, although it can provide good hedging as part of a large investment portfolio [2] - In the first half of 2024, the central bank quietly sold 15% of its gold reserves (approximately 25 tons), which resulted in an opportunity cost or theoretical loss of nearly $1 billion as gold prices surged nearly 50% to historical highs [2] - The central bank has begun diversifying the storage locations of its gold reserves, with some transferred to France while most remains in London, and is also seeking to diversify its foreign exchange reserves, potentially increasing its euro holdings [2]